Core Viewpoint - Target's third-quarter results are anticipated to reveal the retailer's challenges due to increasing economic uncertainty and reduced discretionary spending by consumers [1] Group 1 - The economic environment is affecting consumer behavior, leading to a decline in discretionary spending [1] - Target is expected to report struggles in its financial performance as a result of these economic pressures [1]

Amazon informed staffers via a text-email combo. Target asked workers to stay home. Does any of that make job cuts less painful?https://t.co/Ar5pdlgZA3 ...

Core Insights - Walmart has shown steady growth with a stock increase of +14% in 2025, while Target's stock has decreased by 30% [1] - Target's Q3 sales are expected to decline by 1% to $25.36 billion, with an EPS drop of 5% to $1.76, and has missed EPS expectations in three of the last four quarters [2][3] - Walmart's Q3 sales are projected to rise over 4% to $177.14 billion, with an EPS increase of 5% year over year to $0.61, and has exceeded earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters [3][4] Performance Comparison - Walmart has achieved over +100% gains in the last five years, generating more than $100 billion in digital sales annually, while Target has seen a decline of over 45% due to weaker sales growth and narrower margins [5] - Target is trading at a significant discount compared to the S&P 500 and its historical median, while Walmart trades at a premium due to justifiable EPS growth [7] Dividend and Investment Outlook - Both Walmart and Target are considered viable long-term investments due to their status as dividend kings, with Walmart's dividend yield at 0.92% and Target's at 5.07% [10][11] - The upcoming Q3 reports will be crucial in determining the future performance of both stocks, with Walmart potentially having more upside and Target needing a turnaround in operational efficiency [10][11]

Core Insights - A new trend in consumer rewards is emerging, shifting from traditional loyalty points to Bitcoin rewards, which are gaining popularity among shoppers [1][4]. Group 1: Decline of Traditional Loyalty Points - Traditional loyalty points, such as frequent flyer miles and retail rewards, have lost value due to unexpected charges and devaluation practices by airlines and retailers [2][3]. - Airline miles are devalued by an average of 10% to 20% per year, leading to a significant erosion of purchasing power for consumers [3]. Group 2: Bitcoin Rewards Model - The Bitcoin rewards model, as offered by companies like Fold, allows consumers to earn Bitcoin (sats) instead of store-specific points, providing a more stable and valuable asset [4]. - Bitcoin's value is not controlled by retailers or credit card companies, making it less susceptible to sudden devaluations compared to traditional loyalty points [4]. Group 3: Adoption of Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card - Fold has introduced a Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card in partnership with Visa and Stripe Issuing, which offers up to 3.5% back in Bitcoin on purchases [6]. - Cardholders can earn a base of 2% back instantly, with an additional 1.5% when using a linked Fold Checking Account, and up to 10% back at select retailers during promotions [7].

Core Insights - Starbucks is launching a new holiday drink, the Frozen Peppermint Hot Chocolate, exclusively at Target locations during the holiday season [1][2] - The company aims to leverage the holiday season's consumer enthusiasm, as evidenced by high demand for limited-edition items like the "Bearista" cups [2] - CEO Brian Niccol reported that the recent holiday launch was the biggest sales day ever in North America, with millennial and Gen Z customers driving improvements in customer value perception [3] Company Strategy - The collaboration with Target is timed for the peak shopping season leading up to Christmas, with early access for Target Circle 360 loyalty members [4] - Both Starbucks and Target are facing challenges, including consumer backlash and boycotts, amid rising inflation and decreased consumer spending [4][5] Financial Performance - Starbucks reported its fourth-quarter earnings with a notable increase in same-store sales for the first time in nearly two years, although U.S. same-store sales remained flat for the quarter [6]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the retail sector heading into the holiday season is bleak, primarily due to rising inflation impacting consumer health, especially among low-income consumers [1][3]. Retail Earnings Outlook - Major retailers such as Walmart, Home Depot, and Target are set to report earnings, with cautious sentiment prevailing in the market [1][4]. - Five Below is identified as the most likely retailer to exceed consensus expectations in its upcoming earnings report, benefiting from macro tailwinds and company-specific improvements [5]. - Target is expected to miss expectations due to ongoing struggles with consumer perception, being viewed as a "nice to have" rather than a necessity [6]. - Walmart is anticipated to report inline results, but the current stock valuation suggests limited upside potential [6][7]. Home Improvement Sector - Home Depot and Lowe's are experiencing muted performance, with expectations for uninspiring results in their upcoming reports [9]. - The performance of these companies is largely driven by macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rates and housing turnover, which will influence home improvement demand [9]. Costco's Position - Costco's earnings report is scheduled for the second week of December, with expectations for better performance due to its focus on middle to high-income consumers, who are faring better than low-income consumers [10].

Retail giants like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target, as you can see there, are scheduled to report their earnings throughout the course of the week as investors continue to gauge the state of the consumer. Our next guest says the outlook is bleak going into the holiday season as rising inflation weighs on the consumer health with lowincome consumers getting squeezed the absolute most. For more, let's bring in Jihan Ma, the senior analyst over at Bernstein, who covers many of these uh retailers.Jihan, thank y ...

Group 1 - Most retail stocks are declining as traders prepare for upcoming earnings reports from major retailers such as Home Depot, Walmart, and Target [1][2] - The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF, which is the largest retail fund, decreased by 0.5% and holds 77 U.S. retail companies, with Target and Walmart each representing about 1.5% of the fund [2] - Analysts predict that same-store sales for Target and Walmart will show a decline compared to both the second quarter and the same period last year, according to FactSet [2]

Core Insights - Target Corporation (TGT) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on November 19, with investors weighing the decision to buy or hold the stock ahead of the report [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TGT's fiscal third-quarter revenues is $25.36 billion, reflecting a 1.2% decline from the previous year [3] - The consensus estimate for quarterly earnings has decreased by 2 cents to $1.76 per share, indicating a 4.9% decline from the same quarter last year [3] - Target has a trailing four-quarter average negative earnings surprise of 8.4%, with the last quarter's earnings missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.9% [4] Sales and Earnings Estimates - Current quarter sales estimate is $25.36 billion, with a year-over-year decline of 1.2% [5] - The earnings per share (EPS) estimate for the current quarter is $1.76, down 4.86% from the previous year [6] - Comparable sales are expected to decline by 1.4% due to soft traffic and spending [13] Market Position and Strategy - Target has established a strong retail position through a diversified business model and omnichannel strategy, but is currently facing challenges such as weakening consumer demand and margin compression [2] - The company’s integrated strategy, including digital transformation and enhancements in operational processes, is expected to support performance despite a tough retail environment [10][11] Valuation Analysis - Target's stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.39, significantly below the industry average of 29.89, suggesting it may be undervalued [15] - Compared to peers like Kroger, Walmart, and Ross Stores, Target's valuation appears more attractive, with a Value Score of A [16] Stock Performance - Over the past three months, Target's stock has declined by 14.3%, underperforming the industry, which saw a decline of 2.1% [17] - In contrast, Walmart's stock has increased by 1.8%, and Ross Stores has rallied by 9.9% during the same period [19] Investor Sentiment - Target's upcoming earnings report presents a mix of strategic momentum and uncertainty, leading to a cautious stance among investors [21] - While the stock's valuation is appealing, the lack of a clear upside surprise potential may lead prospective investors to remain on the sidelines [22]

Core Insights - Replenish Nutrients has announced a significant licensing deal with Farmers Union Enterprises (FUE), allowing exclusive rights to produce and sell its patented "SuperKS" pellet fertilizer across a vast Midwest market in the U.S. [1][2] - This partnership is expected to generate substantial revenue, estimated between CAD$2.8 million to CAD$8.4 million, as it opens access to a market covering approximately 70 million acres [1][6] - The demand for sustainable fertilizers is increasing, positioning Replenish to capitalize on this trend and potentially unlock faster growth due to its small market cap [3][4] Company Overview - Replenish Nutrients is a small-cap clean-tech fertilizer company based in Alberta, Canada, focusing on regenerative agriculture products that enhance soil health [4][11] - The company’s products are designed to reduce carbon emissions and improve soil health compared to conventional fertilizers, with studies indicating a reduction of 0.4517 tonnes of CO₂ emissions for every tonne of fertilizer produced [4][35] - Replenish's business model has shifted from production to a licensing platform, allowing it to earn per-ton royalties without heavy capital investment [11][44] Recent Developments - The Beiseker facility is nearing completion, expected to reach a capacity of 2,000 tonnes per month by the end of 2025, potentially generating CAD$13 million to CAD$16 million in annual revenue [6][29] - Replenish has also secured a CAD$7 million grant from Emissions Reduction Alberta to support the construction of the DeBolt facility, further enhancing its financial position [9][20] - The company has successfully closed a licensing deal with MJ Ag Solutions, allowing for the installation of a pellet line in Alberta, which is expected to generate additional royalty income [7][8] Market Opportunity - The U.S. fertilizer market is significantly larger than Canada’s, with estimates suggesting it exceeds CAD$44 billion, providing a substantial addressable market for Replenish's products [38][41] - The regenerative agriculture sector is growing at an annual rate of 10-15%, driven by sustainability mandates, indicating a favorable environment for Replenish's offerings [39][40] - Replenish's licensing model allows for scalable growth, with potential expansions into international markets such as South America, Europe, and India, where demand for sustainable fertilizers is rising [21][22][23] Financial Projections - For 2026, Replenish is projected to achieve approximately CAD$3.1 million in EBITDA, with significant contributions expected from its licensing agreements [56] - By 2027, EBITDA is expected to scale to approximately CAD$9.4 million, reflecting the full ramp-up of its licensing strategy [57] - The company’s valuation could increase significantly, with projections suggesting an enterprise value of CAD$282 million by 2027 based on a 30× EV/EBITDA multiple [59] ESG Impact - Replenish's products align with ESG themes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving soil sustainability, making it attractive to investors focused on sustainable practices [35][37] - The company’s approach to regenerative agriculture not only addresses environmental concerns but also supports farmer-owned networks, enhancing rural economies and food security [36][37]