Core Viewpoint - Trade Desk experienced a significant recovery in Q1 2025 after a disappointing Q4 2024 earnings report, indicating potential for continued growth despite previous setbacks [1][2]. Group 1: Earnings Performance - Trade Desk's Q4 2024 earnings report marked the first time the company missed internal revenue expectations in 33 quarters, leading to a 33% drop in share price [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue growth of 25%, surpassing Wall Street's forecast of 17%, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) grew by 27%, contrary to expectations of a 4% decline [6][7]. - The adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 82 basis points to 34%, significantly exceeding Wall Street's prediction of a drop to below 26% [7]. Group 2: Product Development and Adoption - The rollout of Trade Desk's next-generation ad tech platform, Kokai, faced challenges in Q4 2024 but saw accelerated adoption in Q1 2025, with two-thirds of customers transitioning ahead of schedule [5][8]. - Kokai has demonstrated improved client results, with the cost of acquiring a new customer dropping by 20% and the cost to reach a unique person with an ad decreasing by over 42% compared to the previous platform [9][10]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - Trade Desk operates primarily in the connected TV (CTV) advertising space, which is expected to grow as ad spending shifts from traditional TV, with only $29 billion spent on CTV in 2024 compared to nearly $60 billion for traditional TV [11]. - The company maintains a high customer retention rate above 95%, indicating strong client satisfaction and loyalty [10].

Group 1 - The Trade Desk (NASDAQ: TTD) is a leading provider in the ad tech industry, specializing in demand-side programmatic advertising with a focus on transparency for ad buyers [1] - The company's unique selling proposition is its alignment with ad buyers, ensuring no conflicts of interest [1] - The investment philosophy described as Long Duration Value (LDV) emphasizes investing in high-quality, growing companies that can be held for decades, focusing on return on invested capital and free cash flow per share as key drivers of long-term shareholder value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq-100 index has rebounded significantly after a bear market earlier this year, now sitting less than 5% below its February peak, despite ongoing economic uncertainties and weakened consumer sentiment. There are promising investment opportunities within the index, particularly in two stocks: The Trade Desk and Advanced Micro Devices. Group 1: The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk's share prices fell earlier this year due to missing fourth-quarter guidance, attributed to internal errors rather than market competition [3] - In its first-quarter earnings report, The Trade Desk exceeded expectations with a 25% year-over-year revenue increase to $616 million, surpassing estimates of $575.3 million [3] - The company is a leading independent demand-side platform in ad tech, with significant investments in AI; two-thirds of its customers are now using its Kokai AI platform, which can analyze approximately 17 million ad opportunities per second [4] - The Trade Desk is positioned to benefit from potential regulatory setbacks for Google, which has been declared an illegal monopoly in U.S. District Court, potentially leading to fines or divestitures [5] - The stock is currently down 46% from its recent peak, indicating substantial recovery potential [6] Group 2: Advanced Micro Devices - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has also seen a significant decline from its peak, following a period of high expectations during the early AI boom [7] - The company reported a 36% year-over-year revenue increase in the first quarter, reaching $7.44 billion, with data center revenue surging 57% to $3.7 billion, driven by demand for EPYC CPU and Instinct GPU chips [8] - AMD has entered a $10 billion collaboration with Humain, a Saudi AI company, and has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its competitive position in the data center market [9] - The company announced a $6 billion share repurchase authorization, indicating readiness to capitalize on stock price discounts [10] - AMD's forward P/E ratio is now under 30 based on adjusted earnings, presenting a favorable valuation for a company poised to benefit from the AI boom [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk (TTD) has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.62, indicating a consensus leaning towards a "Strong Buy" to "Buy" rating, but caution is advised as brokerage recommendations may not reliably predict stock performance [2][5][14]. Brokerage Recommendations - The current ABR of 1.62 is based on recommendations from 37 brokerage firms, with 24 ratings as "Strong Buy" and 3 as "Buy," representing 64.9% and 8.1% of total recommendations respectively [2]. - Despite the favorable ABR, studies suggest that brokerage recommendations have limited success in guiding investors towards stocks with the highest price increase potential [5][10]. Analyst Bias and Reliability - Brokerage analysts often exhibit a positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of "Strong Buy" recommendations compared to "Strong Sell" [6][10]. - The interests of brokerage firms may not align with those of retail investors, which can result in misleading guidance regarding future stock price movements [7][10]. Zacks Rank vs. ABR - The Zacks Rank, which is based on earnings estimate revisions, is presented in whole numbers and is considered a more reliable indicator of near-term stock performance compared to the ABR [8][9][11]. - The Zacks Rank is updated more frequently, reflecting timely changes in earnings estimates, while the ABR may not always be current [12]. Current Earnings Estimates for TTD - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for The Trade Desk has decreased by 7.5% over the past month to $1.77, indicating growing pessimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [13]. - This decline in earnings estimates has resulted in a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) for The Trade Desk, suggesting that the positive ABR should be approached with caution [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq-100 index includes innovative companies like Datadog and The Trade Desk, which are currently trading below their recent highs but still present attractive long-term growth prospects [1] Datadog - Datadog's shares are down 17% year to date, but the company has seen a rebound following strong earnings reports [2] - The company reported a 25% year-over-year revenue growth to $762 million in Q1, alleviating concerns about software spending due to potential economic downturns [5] - High demand for AI monitoring tools is driving growth, with Datadog signing 11 deals worth at least $10 million each in the quarter [6][7] - Datadog's revenue is currently $2.8 billion, serving a market projected to reach $81 billion by 2028, indicating significant growth potential [9] The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk, a leading digital ad-buying platform, has experienced a 34.5% decline in shares year to date but has shown recovery with a 29% increase since its earnings report on May 8 [2][13] - The company reported a 25% year-over-year revenue growth in Q1, indicating healthy ad spending on its platform despite earlier concerns about a slowdown in the ad market [13] - The Trade Desk is capitalizing on the $1 trillion ad market with its Unified ID 2.0 and AI-powered Kokai platform, which enhances ad performance measurement and improves returns on ad spending [14] - The stock's forward price-to-earnings ratio has decreased to 44, making it more attractive for investors compared to earlier in the year [15] - Analysts project an annualized earnings growth rate of 31% for The Trade Desk, suggesting strong long-term returns for investors [16]

Core Viewpoint - Market downturns present a significant opportunity to acquire quality stocks at discounted prices, as evidenced by the recent market reaction to global tariffs imposed by President Trump, which led to major market indexes falling into correction territory [1][2]. Company Summaries Nvidia - Nvidia has solidified its position as a leading technology company amid the AI revolution, with its GPUs being the industry standard for AI applications [4]. - Despite a 37% decline in stock price due to concerns over AI acceleration and tariffs, Nvidia's fiscal 2025 fourth quarter revenue reached $39 billion, a 78% year-over-year increase, and EPS surged 82%, indicating strong growth potential [5][6]. - The stock is currently priced at 31 times forward earnings, which is attractive given its growth trajectory [6]. Broadcom - Broadcom is positioned to benefit from digital transformation, providing semiconductors and software solutions essential for various industries, including AI infrastructure [7]. - In fiscal 2025 first quarter, Broadcom reported a 25% increase in revenue to $15 billion and a 45% rise in adjusted EPS to $1.60, showcasing its growth potential [8]. - The stock is trading at 35 times forward earnings, supported by a consistent growth track record [8]. Amazon - Amazon's stock fell nearly 31% following the tariff announcement, but the company has historically adapted well to macroeconomic changes [9]. - Digital retail accounts for 81% of Amazon's revenue, while AWS contributes 63% of its profits, which is less affected by tariffs [11]. - The stock is considered fairly priced at 3 times next year's sales, with potential benefits from improving economic conditions [12]. Shopify - Shopify's stock dropped over 40% due to tariff concerns, particularly affecting its smaller merchants [13][14]. - The company launched tariffguide.ai to help merchants navigate tariff rates, demonstrating agility in response to challenges [15]. - In the first quarter, Shopify's revenue increased by 27% to $2.36 billion, and operating income surged 136%, with the stock priced at 15 times sales, below its 10-year average of 22 [15][16]. The Trade Desk - The Trade Desk experienced a significant stock decline of 67% due to missing earnings expectations and the broader market downturn [17][18]. - The management acknowledged execution missteps and outlined corrective measures, which restored investor confidence [19]. - In the first quarter, revenue grew 25% to $616 million, and adjusted EPS increased by 27%, with a PEG ratio of 0.92 indicating potential undervaluation [20].

贝莱德Q1持仓：仍偏爱科技巨头 重仓苹果、微软、英伟达 金十数据5月16日讯，贝莱德13F报告显示，一季度持仓总市值为4.76万亿美元，环比下降3.6%。前十大 重仓股中，大型科技公司仍占多数。苹果仍位列第一，持仓占比为5.32%。其次是微软、英伟达、亚马 逊和Meta。从持仓比例变化来看，前五大买入标的为SPDR标普500ET、伯克希尔哈撒韦-B、Visa、艾 伯维、礼来。前五大卖出标的包括迈威尔科技、Adobe、The Trade Desk、Deckers Outdoor、伊顿。 订阅13F持仓变动 +订阅 ...

根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露，摩根士丹利递交了截止至2025年3月31日的第一季度持仓报告(13F)。 据统计，摩根士丹利第一季度持仓总市值为1.4万亿美元，上一季度总市值为1.43万亿美元，环比下降2.1%。该基金在第一季度的投资组合中新增了444只个 股，增持了3493只个股，减持了3410只个股，清仓了323只个股。其中前十大持仓标的占总市值的19.97%。 | 2025-03-31 | | | --- | --- | | 13F Activity | | | Market Value | $1.40t, Prior: $1.43t | | Inflows (Outflows) as % of Total MV | +1.5021% | | New Purchases | 444 stocks | | Added To | 3493 stocks | | Sold out of | 323 stocks | | Reduced holdings in | 3410 stocks | | Top 10 Holdings % | 19.97% | | Turnover %(1) | 9.12% | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting the inherent risks involved in trading [3]. Group 1 - The analyst expresses a beneficial long position in shares of AMZN and GOOG, indicating confidence in these stocks [2]. - The article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute professional investment advice [3]. - There is a clear distinction made between the opinions expressed in the article and those of Seeking Alpha as a whole, indicating that the views may not reflect the platform's official stance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Trade Desk has experienced a significant stock price increase of approximately 50% since May 1, driven by strong first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, although its high valuation raises concerns about future performance [2][10]. Financial Performance - The Trade Desk reported Q1 revenue of $616 million, a 25% year-over-year increase, surpassing its guidance of $575 million [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 was $208 million, reflecting a 34% margin, compared to $162 million and a 33% margin in the same quarter last year [5]. - Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share were $0.33, marking a 27% increase year-over-year [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company's recent strategic upgrades, implemented in Q4, have positively impacted performance, contributing to the strong Q1 results [6]. - The adoption of the AI-driven ad-buying platform, Kokai, has accelerated, now accounting for about two-thirds of client activity, leading to improved efficiency and reduced costs for advertisers [7]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The Trade Desk is gaining market share despite macroeconomic challenges, driven by the agility and performance benefits of programmatic advertising [8]. - Customer retention remains high at over 95%, a streak maintained for over a decade [9]. Valuation Concerns - The Trade Desk's stock trades at approximately 97 times earnings, indicating a premium valuation that necessitates near-perfect execution to sustain [11]. - The competitive landscape includes major players like Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta Platforms, which dominate significant portions of the digital ad market [12]. Investment Considerations - While The Trade Desk is recognized as a well-managed company with strong momentum, the current stock valuation may pose risks for new investors [13][15]. - Existing shareholders may benefit from the recent positive performance, but potential investors are advised to consider alternative opportunities due to the high valuation and associated risks [14].