Financial Performance - TotalEnergies reported sales of $52,254 million in Q1 2025, a decrease of 7% compared to Q1 2024[5] - Net income attributable to TotalEnergies' shareholders was $3,851 million, down 33% year-on-year[5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $10,504 million, reflecting a 9% decline from Q1 2024[5] - TotalEnergies reported consolidated net income of $3,921 million for Q1 2025, a decrease of 32.5% compared to $5,804 million in Q1 2024[121] - Revenues from sales for Q1 2025 were $47,899 million, down 7.6% from $51,883 million in Q1 2024[121] - Earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $1.69, compared to $2.42 in Q1 2024, reflecting a decline of 30.2%[121] - Adjusted net operating income for Q1 2025 was $4,661 million, with a net income attributable to TotalEnergies' shareholders of $3,851 million[126] Production and Operations - Hydrocarbon production averaged 2,558 kboe/d in Q1 2025, an increase of 4% year-on-year, driven by new projects and acquisitions[19] - TotalEnergies' hydrocarbon production in Q1 2025 was 1,976 kboe/d, a 2% increase from Q4 2024 and stable compared to Q1 2024[31] - Total production increased by 5% to 2,558 kboe/d in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, and up 4% from Q1 2024[77] - Liquids production rose by 5% to 1,516 kb/d in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, and increased by 2% from Q1 2024[77] - Gas production grew by 6% to 5,655 Mcf/d in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, and up 8% from Q1 2024[77] - Integrated Power's net power production increased 18% year-on-year to 11.3 TWh, driven by growth in renewable energy production[40] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash flow from operating activities decreased significantly by 80% to $2,563 million compared to the previous quarter[5] - Cash flow from operating activities for Exploration & Production was $3,266 million in Q1 2025, down 27% quarter-to-quarter[34] - Cash flow from operating activities was $(1,983) million in Q1 2025, reflecting operational difficulties and low refining margins[49] - Cash flow used in investing activities rose by 28% to $4,805 million in Q1 2025 from $3,745 million in Q4 2024, and increased by 39% from $3,467 million in Q1 2024[86] - The company reported net investments of $4,921 million in Q1 2025, a 27% increase from $3,863 million in Q4 2024 and a 38% increase from $3,572 million in Q1 2024[86] Environmental Impact - Scope 1+2 greenhouse gas emissions from operated facilities decreased by 13% quarter-on-quarter to 8.4 MtCO2e[10] - Total installed power generation gross capacity from renewables reached 27.8 GW in Q1 2025, up from 26.0 GW in Q4 2024, representing a growth of approximately 6.9%[81] Market Conditions - The average price of Brent crude oil was $75.7 per barrel in Q1 2025, down 9% from $83.2 per barrel in Q1 2024[8] - TotalEnergies' average price of gas was $6.60 per Mbtu in Q1 2025, reflecting a 29% increase compared to Q1 2024[8] - The average price of LNG in Q1 2025 was $10.00/Mbtu, down 4% from Q4 2024 but up 4% year-on-year[38] - European gas prices are expected to remain elevated in Q2 2025, with LNG selling prices anticipated between $9 and $9.5/Mbtu[67] Financial Ratios and Metrics - Return on equity (ROE) was 15.1% for the twelve months ended March 31, 2025, down from 19.0% a year earlier[62] - Gearing ratio increased to 14.3% as of March 31, 2025, influenced by a seasonal working capital variation of $3.4 billion[100] - Return on Average Capital Employed (ROACE) for the company was 13.2% for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024[101] Future Outlook - TotalEnergies anticipates hydrocarbon production growth of 2-3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, confirming a target of over 3% growth for the fiscal year 2025[68] - The company projects net investments of $17 to $17.5 billion for 2025, with $4.5 billion allocated to low carbon energies[69]

Core Viewpoint TotalEnergies SE reported a decline in operating earnings and total revenues for the first quarter of 2025, while hydrocarbon production increased year over year, driven by new start-ups and existing asset ramp-ups. Financial Performance - Operating earnings for Q1 2025 were $1.83 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.88 by 2.65% and down 3.7% from $1.90 in the previous year [1] - Total revenues were $47.89 billion, an 8% decline from $51.88 billion year-over-year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $45.5 billion by 5.3% [1] Production Details - Hydrocarbon production averaged 2,568 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 4% year over year, surpassing the guided range of 2,500-2,550 thousand barrels [2] - Liquid production averaged 1,516 thousand barrels per day, a 2% increase year over year, while gas production was 5,655 thousand cubic feet per day, up 8% year over year [3] Pricing Information - The realized price for Brent crude decreased by 9% to $75.7 per barrel from $83.2 a year earlier [4] - Average realized liquid price was $72.2 per barrel, down 8% year over year, while realized gas prices increased by 29% to $6.6 per thousand British thermal units [4] Operational Highlights - Net power production was 11.3 terawatt hours, an 18% increase year over year, with 60.2% generated from renewable sources [5] - Net operating income fell to $4.79 billion, down 14% year over year due to lower realized oil prices and refining margins [5] Shareholder Actions - The company repurchased 33.3 million shares for $2 billion in Q1 2025 [6] Segment Performance - Exploration & Production's operating earnings were $2.45 billion, down 4% from the previous year [7] - Integrated LNG's operating income was $1.43 billion, down 1.6% year over year [7] - Integrated Power's operating income decreased by 17% to $506 million, while Refining & Chemicals saw a 69% decline to $301 million [8] Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, were $22.83 billion, down from $25.84 billion at the end of 2024 [9] - Cash flow from operating activities increased by 18% year over year to $2.56 billion [9] Future Guidance - TotalEnergies expects a 2-3% year-over-year improvement in production volumes for Q2 2025, although planned maintenance may impact production [10] - The company plans to invest between $17 billion and $17.5 billion in 2025, with $4.5 billion allocated to low carbon energies [10]

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Core Viewpoint - The five major oil companies are facing significant financial challenges due to prolonged low international oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and pressures from energy transition, leading to a cumulative profit decline exceeding $90 billion over three years [1][3]. Financial Performance - The profits of the five major oil companies peaked at approximately $280 billion in 2022 but fell by 23% to $215 billion in 2023, with a further projected decline of 15% to $183 billion in 2024 [3]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to drop to an average of $81 per barrel in 2024, with predictions of further declines in 2025 as global oil supply increases [3][7]. - In Q1 2025, profits are anticipated to decrease by 18%, with Brent crude prices dipping below $60 per barrel, representing a decline of over 25% compared to the previous year [3]. Dividend and Share Buyback Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about the sustainability of high dividends and share buybacks, with warnings that companies like Shell and BP may need to cut dividends if oil prices remain below $60 per barrel [4]. - Shell's share buyback program for Q1 2025 has been reduced by 30%, and BP has suspended its buyback plans for the remainder of 2025 [4]. Credit Rating Risks - Moody's has placed Chevron and TotalEnergies on a "negative watch" list due to concerns that low oil prices may lead to increased debt levels [5]. Company Strategies - In response to financial pressures, companies are implementing cost-cutting measures, restructuring, and transitioning to renewable energy [6]. - ExxonMobil plans to reduce operating costs by 12% by 2025, while TotalEnergies is laying off 5% of its workforce [6]. - Shell aims to increase its renewable energy capacity target from 120 GW to 200 GW by 2030, and BP has partnered with Microsoft to supply 100% renewable energy to its data centers over the next decade [6]. Industry Outlook - The oil industry is expected to face ongoing challenges in the short term, with low oil prices likely becoming the norm and demand growth stagnating [7]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude prices may stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, a 15% decrease from 2024 [7]. - Despite short-term pressures, some analysts remain optimistic about the potential for oil companies to transition into renewable energy and carbon capture sectors, which could provide new growth opportunities [7].

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies SE is expected to report a decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, with earnings per share projected at $1.88, down 12.2% year-over-year, and revenues forecasted at $45.5 billion, reflecting a 19.2% decrease [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 3.8% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are linked to short-term stock price performance [3]. Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts predict 'Combined Liquids and Gas Production per day - Total' to be 2,537.58 KBOE/D, an increase from 2,461 KBOE/D reported in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Total Refinery Throughput per day' is estimated at 1,451.27 thousand barrels of oil, compared to 1,424 thousand barrels of oil a year ago [5]. - 'Gas Production per day - Total' is projected to reach 5,516.75 Mcf/D, up from 5,249 Mcf/D in the previous year [6]. - 'Liquids Production per day - Total' is expected to be 1,523.00 thousand barrels of oil, an increase from 1,482 thousand barrels of oil reported last year [6]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, TotalEnergies shares have declined by 6.6%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has decreased by 4.3% [7]. - TotalEnergies holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance will likely align with the overall market in the near term [7].

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies SE is expected to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, with a projected earnings decline compared to the previous year, influenced by various operational factors and market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - TotalEnergies has an Earnings ESP of -0.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a neutral outlook for earnings performance [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $1.88 per share, reflecting a 12.15% decline year-over-year, while revenue is estimated at $45.5 billion, indicating a 19.5% decrease from the prior year [4]. Group 2: Production and Operational Insights - The company anticipates first-quarter 2025 production volumes between 2.5-2.55 thousand barrels of oil equivalents per day, benefiting from recent acquisitions and operational ramp-ups [3]. - TotalEnergies is focusing on strategic acquisitions and partnerships in high-potential regions while divesting non-core assets, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [5]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - TotalEnergies has a minimal exposure to the mature North American region, with upstream assets that have lower natural decline rates, providing a competitive advantage [7]. - The company is strengthening its position in natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and low-carbon electricity, which is likely to positively impact earnings [6]. Group 4: Market Challenges - Despite its strengths, TotalEnergies faces competition from national and international oil and gas majors, impacting its ability to acquire hydrocarbon assets and licenses [8]. - Currency fluctuations and inflationary trends present financial risks, particularly in emerging markets where TotalEnergies is expanding its presence [8].

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies SE is expected to report a decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, indicating a challenging financial period compared to the previous year [1][2]. Earnings and Revenue Estimates - The anticipated earnings per share (EPS) for TotalEnergies is $1.88, reflecting a 12.2% decrease year-over-year [1]. - Analysts forecast revenues of $45.5 billion, which represents a 19.2% decline compared to the same period last year [1]. Analyst Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.8% lower over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions and have shown a strong correlation with short-term stock performance [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Analysts project that 'Combined Liquids and Gas Production per day - Total' will reach 2,537.58 KBOE/D, up from 2,461 KBOE/D in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Total Refinery Throughput per day' is expected to be 1,451.27 thousand barrels of oil, compared to 1,424 thousand barrels of oil in the previous year [5]. - 'Gas Production per day - Total' is forecasted at 5,516.75 Mcf/D, an increase from 5,249 Mcf/D year-over-year [6]. - 'Liquids Production per day - Total' is projected to reach 1,523.00 thousand barrels of oil, up from 1,482 thousand barrels of oil in the same quarter last year [6]. Stock Performance - TotalEnergies shares have decreased by 9.1% over the past month, contrasting with a 4.8% decline in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [6]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the overall market in the near future [6].

Core Insights - The European white oil market is expected to grow from $685.4 million in 2023 to $1.59 billion by 2034, with a CAGR of 8.84% during the forecast period from 2024 to 2034 [1][8]. Market Overview - The white oil sector in Europe includes highly refined, mineral-based oils used in various industries such as pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, food processing, and industrial applications [2]. - The increasing demand for purity and safety in product formulations has made white oil essential for manufacturing lotions, ointments, lubricants, and plasticizers [2]. Innovations and Trends - Recent advancements in refining processes have led to white oils that meet stringent EU regulatory standards, including pharmaceutical and food-grade variants [3]. - There is a growing consumer awareness regarding sustainability and eco-friendly production practices, prompting European companies to adopt greener manufacturing methods [4]. Market Segmentation - The market is segmented by product type, grade type, application, functionality type, and country [9]. - Key product types include mineral white oil, light grade, heavy grade, synthetic white oil, and polyalphaolefin [9]. - Applications span healthcare, personal care, food and beverage, textiles, automotive, agriculture, and more [9]. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the market include ExxonMobil, Sonneborn LLC, Sasol, BP, FUCHS, H&R Group, Shell International, and Total Energies [3][10][16]. - The market has seen significant developments through business expansions, partnerships, collaborations, and joint ventures, with a focus on launching processing units to strengthen market positions [6]. Regulatory and Environmental Factors - The report discusses the regulatory landscape in Europe, including REACH compliance for cosmetic and personal care use and EU regulations for food-grade white oil [14]. - Sustainability and environmental impact considerations are becoming increasingly important, with a focus on sustainable sourcing of raw materials and eco-friendly alternatives [14].

Core Insights - Chevron Corporation (CVX) and TotalEnergies SE (TTE) have successfully commenced oil and gas production from the Ballymore project in the Gulf of America, expected to deliver up to 75,000 gross barrels of oil per day and 50 million cubic feet of gas daily [1][6] - The Ballymore project is part of Chevron's strategic goal to produce 300,000 net barrels per day of oil equivalent from the Gulf by 2026 [2] - The project utilizes existing infrastructure, enhancing cost efficiency and emissions reduction [6] Project Details - The Ballymore project holds an estimated 150 million barrels of oil equivalent in potentially recoverable resources over its lifespan [6] - Located in the Mississippi Canyon area, approximately 160 miles southeast of New Orleans, the field sits in water depths of about 6,600 feet [6] - Chevron operates the project with a 60% working interest, while TotalEnergies holds the remaining 40% [7] Strategic Goals - For TotalEnergies, the project increases its deepwater production capacity in the U.S. to over 75,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, contributing to its goal of over 3% hydrocarbon production growth by 2025 [8] - The project aligns with TotalEnergies' integrated energy strategy, which includes oil, gas, LNG, and power developments [8] Recent Developments - Chevron has initiated production from several projects since 2024, including the industry-first Anchor project, which accesses reservoirs nearly 35,000 feet below the ocean's surface [3] - In January 2025, Chevron, in collaboration with Shell, started production from the Whale project, expected to involve up to 15 wells with an estimated peak production of 100,000 gross barrels of oil equivalent per day [4] - Chevron has also begun water injection at its Tahiti and Jack/St. Malo facilities to boost output, expecting to add about 175 million barrels of oil equivalent to the St. Malo field's gross ultimate recovery [5]

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