Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are currently under pressure, affecting oil-related stocks, but this presents a potential buying opportunity for long-term investors as oil prices have historically rebounded [1][2] Group 1: Chevron - Chevron is a major integrated energy company with operations across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, providing resilience against commodity price volatility [3] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.2, allowing it to support its business and dividends during downturns [4] - Despite facing company-specific challenges, including a difficult merger and political issues in Venezuela, Chevron offers a 5% yield that is expected to remain stable [5] Group 2: TotalEnergies - TotalEnergies is a French integrated energy giant that has invested in clean energy while maintaining its dividend, unlike some competitors [8] - The company has accelerated its clean energy investments, with this segment growing by 17% in 2024, providing a hedge against the transition to cleaner energy [9] - The stock currently offers a dividend yield of 6.5%, making it an attractive option for investors seeking high yield with exposure to both oil and clean energy [10] Group 3: Enbridge - Enbridge operates as a midstream company, focusing on pipelines, storage, processing, and transportation of oil and natural gas, which provides a consistent income stream [11] - Approximately 50% of Enbridge's EBITDA comes from oil pipelines, while 25% comes from natural gas pipelines, ensuring reliable cash flows [12] - The company is also diversifying into natural gas utilities and clean energy investments, which are regulated and driven by long-term contracts, further minimizing commodity risk [13] Group 4: Industry Outlook - Oil remains a vital energy source despite the ongoing energy transition, and companies like Chevron, TotalEnergies, and Enbridge provide various investment opportunities in the energy sector [14] - Each of these companies offers unique advantages, such as diversified exposure, high yields, and reduced commodity risk, making them appealing options for investors looking to invest in the energy sector [15]

4月22日，道达尔能源宣布了一项重要决定：将于2027年年底永久关闭其位于比利时安特卫普炼油 及石化工厂内的一座老旧裂解装置。这一消息迅速引发了全球石化行业的关注，成为欧洲石化产业结构 性调整的又一标志性事件。这也折射出欧洲地区持续面临石化产品供应过剩、需求疲软以及成本高昂的 困境。 道达尔能源的情况并非孤例。在过去一年里，欧洲石化行业掀起了一股显著的"去产能潮"，多家国 际化工巨头相继宣布关闭旗下裂解装置，勾勒出区域产业结构剧烈调整的图景。 在过去一年里，欧洲其他宣布关闭的裂解装置还包括埃克森美孚位于法国格拉旺雄圣母镇的裂解装 置、沙特基础工业公司位于荷兰赫林的裂解装置，以及意大利维萨利斯公司位于布林迪西和普廖洛的裂 解装置。这些被关闭的装置均为石脑油裂解路线，共同特点是依赖传统原料路线，且未形成完整的上下 游一体化产业链，在当前市场环境下竞争力不足。 值得注意的是，利安德巴塞尔工业公司去年宣布正在评估其位于欧洲的多个工厂的选择方案，包括 法国的贝雷和德国的明希斯明斯特，该公司在这些地方运营着裂解装置。与关闭潮形成对比的是，英力 士集团计划于2027年在安特卫普投产一套年产能145万吨的乙烷裂解装置，这一新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The net profits of the five major oil companies in Europe and the U.S. are projected to decline significantly in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to falling crude oil prices, raising concerns about further deterioration in future performance [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the combined net profit of the five major oil companies reached $20.531 billion, a 29% decrease compared to the same period last year [1]. - Individual company performances include: ExxonMobil with $7.71 billion (down 6%), Shell with $4.78 billion (down 35%), Chevron with $3.5 billion (down 36%), TotalEnergies with $3.85 billion (down 32.7%), and BP with $0.69 billion (down 69.6%) [1]. - The net profits of these five companies have declined for eight consecutive quarters [1]. Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The average price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures in Q1 2025 was approximately $75 per barrel, down about 10% from $82 per barrel in the same period last year [1]. - The Brent crude oil futures price also fell by 10% compared to the previous year [1]. - The decline in oil prices is partly attributed to the policies of the Trump administration, which included calls for OPEC to lower prices and tariffs that increased global recession expectations [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Market analysts predict that the performance of these oil companies may worsen in Q2 2025, with WTI futures dropping below $70 per barrel and currently trading at just over $60 per barrel [2]. - A study by the Dallas Federal Reserve indicates that developing new U.S. oil requires a WTI price of about $65 per barrel, suggesting that if prices fall below $60 per barrel, oil production may begin to decline due to unprofitability [2]. - Despite the Trump administration's encouragement for increased U.S. oil production, companies are still facing pressure on profit margins due to low oil prices and rising material costs [2].

Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway's Energy Investments - Berkshire Hathaway has a dual portfolio in the energy sector, including publicly traded stocks and wholly owned companies [2][4] - Publicly traded investments include Chevron and Occidental Petroleum, indicating Buffett's value perception in oil and gas [4] - Berkshire Hathaway also owns utilities focused on cleaner energy, moving away from coal [5] Group 2: TotalEnergies Overview - TotalEnergies is a major integrated energy company based in France, competing with Chevron and has a favorable relationship with developing countries [7] - The company has diversified operations, including midstream and downstream businesses, which help stabilize its financial performance [8] - TotalEnergies is expanding its integrated power division, focusing on clean energy, with a 17% growth in 2024 [10] Group 3: Investment Opportunity - TotalEnergies offers a 6.7% dividend yield, making it an attractive investment option [5][11] - The company's commitment to clean energy contrasts with competitors like BP and Shell, reflecting a long-term investment strategy similar to Buffett's [12] - Investing in TotalEnergies allows exposure to two key themes present in Berkshire Hathaway's portfolio [11][13]

Financial Performance - TotalEnergies reported sales of $52,254 million in Q1 2025, a decrease of 7% compared to Q1 2024[5] - Net income attributable to TotalEnergies' shareholders was $3,851 million, down 33% year-on-year[5] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $10,504 million, reflecting a 9% decline from Q1 2024[5] - TotalEnergies reported consolidated net income of $3,921 million for Q1 2025, a decrease of 32.5% compared to $5,804 million in Q1 2024[121] - Revenues from sales for Q1 2025 were $47,899 million, down 7.6% from $51,883 million in Q1 2024[121] - Earnings per share for Q1 2025 were $1.69, compared to $2.42 in Q1 2024, reflecting a decline of 30.2%[121] - Adjusted net operating income for Q1 2025 was $4,661 million, with a net income attributable to TotalEnergies' shareholders of $3,851 million[126] Production and Operations - Hydrocarbon production averaged 2,558 kboe/d in Q1 2025, an increase of 4% year-on-year, driven by new projects and acquisitions[19] - TotalEnergies' hydrocarbon production in Q1 2025 was 1,976 kboe/d, a 2% increase from Q4 2024 and stable compared to Q1 2024[31] - Total production increased by 5% to 2,558 kboe/d in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, and up 4% from Q1 2024[77] - Liquids production rose by 5% to 1,516 kb/d in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, and increased by 2% from Q1 2024[77] - Gas production grew by 6% to 5,655 Mcf/d in Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, and up 8% from Q1 2024[77] - Integrated Power's net power production increased 18% year-on-year to 11.3 TWh, driven by growth in renewable energy production[40] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash flow from operating activities decreased significantly by 80% to $2,563 million compared to the previous quarter[5] - Cash flow from operating activities for Exploration & Production was $3,266 million in Q1 2025, down 27% quarter-to-quarter[34] - Cash flow from operating activities was $(1,983) million in Q1 2025, reflecting operational difficulties and low refining margins[49] - Cash flow used in investing activities rose by 28% to $4,805 million in Q1 2025 from $3,745 million in Q4 2024, and increased by 39% from $3,467 million in Q1 2024[86] - The company reported net investments of $4,921 million in Q1 2025, a 27% increase from $3,863 million in Q4 2024 and a 38% increase from $3,572 million in Q1 2024[86] Environmental Impact - Scope 1+2 greenhouse gas emissions from operated facilities decreased by 13% quarter-on-quarter to 8.4 MtCO2e[10] - Total installed power generation gross capacity from renewables reached 27.8 GW in Q1 2025, up from 26.0 GW in Q4 2024, representing a growth of approximately 6.9%[81] Market Conditions - The average price of Brent crude oil was $75.7 per barrel in Q1 2025, down 9% from $83.2 per barrel in Q1 2024[8] - TotalEnergies' average price of gas was $6.60 per Mbtu in Q1 2025, reflecting a 29% increase compared to Q1 2024[8] - The average price of LNG in Q1 2025 was $10.00/Mbtu, down 4% from Q4 2024 but up 4% year-on-year[38] - European gas prices are expected to remain elevated in Q2 2025, with LNG selling prices anticipated between $9 and $9.5/Mbtu[67] Financial Ratios and Metrics - Return on equity (ROE) was 15.1% for the twelve months ended March 31, 2025, down from 19.0% a year earlier[62] - Gearing ratio increased to 14.3% as of March 31, 2025, influenced by a seasonal working capital variation of $3.4 billion[100] - Return on Average Capital Employed (ROACE) for the company was 13.2% for the twelve months ended December 31, 2024[101] Future Outlook - TotalEnergies anticipates hydrocarbon production growth of 2-3% year-on-year in Q2 2025, confirming a target of over 3% growth for the fiscal year 2025[68] - The company projects net investments of $17 to $17.5 billion for 2025, with $4.5 billion allocated to low carbon energies[69]

Core Viewpoint TotalEnergies SE reported a decline in operating earnings and total revenues for the first quarter of 2025, while hydrocarbon production increased year over year, driven by new start-ups and existing asset ramp-ups. Financial Performance - Operating earnings for Q1 2025 were $1.83 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.88 by 2.65% and down 3.7% from $1.90 in the previous year [1] - Total revenues were $47.89 billion, an 8% decline from $51.88 billion year-over-year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $45.5 billion by 5.3% [1] Production Details - Hydrocarbon production averaged 2,568 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day, up 4% year over year, surpassing the guided range of 2,500-2,550 thousand barrels [2] - Liquid production averaged 1,516 thousand barrels per day, a 2% increase year over year, while gas production was 5,655 thousand cubic feet per day, up 8% year over year [3] Pricing Information - The realized price for Brent crude decreased by 9% to $75.7 per barrel from $83.2 a year earlier [4] - Average realized liquid price was $72.2 per barrel, down 8% year over year, while realized gas prices increased by 29% to $6.6 per thousand British thermal units [4] Operational Highlights - Net power production was 11.3 terawatt hours, an 18% increase year over year, with 60.2% generated from renewable sources [5] - Net operating income fell to $4.79 billion, down 14% year over year due to lower realized oil prices and refining margins [5] Shareholder Actions - The company repurchased 33.3 million shares for $2 billion in Q1 2025 [6] Segment Performance - Exploration & Production's operating earnings were $2.45 billion, down 4% from the previous year [7] - Integrated LNG's operating income was $1.43 billion, down 1.6% year over year [7] - Integrated Power's operating income decreased by 17% to $506 million, while Refining & Chemicals saw a 69% decline to $301 million [8] Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025, were $22.83 billion, down from $25.84 billion at the end of 2024 [9] - Cash flow from operating activities increased by 18% year over year to $2.56 billion [9] Future Guidance - TotalEnergies expects a 2-3% year-over-year improvement in production volumes for Q2 2025, although planned maintenance may impact production [10] - The company plans to invest between $17 billion and $17.5 billion in 2025, with $4.5 billion allocated to low carbon energies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of TotalEnergies expressed skepticism about the return of Russian pipeline gas to Europe within the next 12 months, indicating that such a return would require significant time [1] Group 1 - The CEO's statement reflects the ongoing uncertainty in the European energy market regarding Russian gas supplies [1] - The comment suggests that the current geopolitical climate and infrastructure challenges may hinder the quick resumption of gas flows from Russia to Europe [1]

Core Viewpoint - The five major oil companies are facing significant financial challenges due to prolonged low international oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and pressures from energy transition, leading to a cumulative profit decline exceeding $90 billion over three years [1][3]. Financial Performance - The profits of the five major oil companies peaked at approximately $280 billion in 2022 but fell by 23% to $215 billion in 2023, with a further projected decline of 15% to $183 billion in 2024 [3]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to drop to an average of $81 per barrel in 2024, with predictions of further declines in 2025 as global oil supply increases [3][7]. - In Q1 2025, profits are anticipated to decrease by 18%, with Brent crude prices dipping below $60 per barrel, representing a decline of over 25% compared to the previous year [3]. Dividend and Share Buyback Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about the sustainability of high dividends and share buybacks, with warnings that companies like Shell and BP may need to cut dividends if oil prices remain below $60 per barrel [4]. - Shell's share buyback program for Q1 2025 has been reduced by 30%, and BP has suspended its buyback plans for the remainder of 2025 [4]. Credit Rating Risks - Moody's has placed Chevron and TotalEnergies on a "negative watch" list due to concerns that low oil prices may lead to increased debt levels [5]. Company Strategies - In response to financial pressures, companies are implementing cost-cutting measures, restructuring, and transitioning to renewable energy [6]. - ExxonMobil plans to reduce operating costs by 12% by 2025, while TotalEnergies is laying off 5% of its workforce [6]. - Shell aims to increase its renewable energy capacity target from 120 GW to 200 GW by 2030, and BP has partnered with Microsoft to supply 100% renewable energy to its data centers over the next decade [6]. Industry Outlook - The oil industry is expected to face ongoing challenges in the short term, with low oil prices likely becoming the norm and demand growth stagnating [7]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude prices may stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, a 15% decrease from 2024 [7]. - Despite short-term pressures, some analysts remain optimistic about the potential for oil companies to transition into renewable energy and carbon capture sectors, which could provide new growth opportunities [7].

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies SE is expected to report a decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, with earnings per share projected at $1.88, down 12.2% year-over-year, and revenues forecasted at $45.5 billion, reflecting a 19.2% decrease [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 3.8% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are linked to short-term stock price performance [3]. Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts predict 'Combined Liquids and Gas Production per day - Total' to be 2,537.58 KBOE/D, an increase from 2,461 KBOE/D reported in the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Total Refinery Throughput per day' is estimated at 1,451.27 thousand barrels of oil, compared to 1,424 thousand barrels of oil a year ago [5]. - 'Gas Production per day - Total' is projected to reach 5,516.75 Mcf/D, up from 5,249 Mcf/D in the previous year [6]. - 'Liquids Production per day - Total' is expected to be 1,523.00 thousand barrels of oil, an increase from 1,482 thousand barrels of oil reported last year [6]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, TotalEnergies shares have declined by 6.6%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has decreased by 4.3% [7]. - TotalEnergies holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting its performance will likely align with the overall market in the near term [7].

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies SE is expected to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, with a projected earnings decline compared to the previous year, influenced by various operational factors and market conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Earnings Expectations - TotalEnergies has an Earnings ESP of -0.27% and a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a neutral outlook for earnings performance [2]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $1.88 per share, reflecting a 12.15% decline year-over-year, while revenue is estimated at $45.5 billion, indicating a 19.5% decrease from the prior year [4]. Group 2: Production and Operational Insights - The company anticipates first-quarter 2025 production volumes between 2.5-2.55 thousand barrels of oil equivalents per day, benefiting from recent acquisitions and operational ramp-ups [3]. - TotalEnergies is focusing on strategic acquisitions and partnerships in high-potential regions while divesting non-core assets, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [5]. Group 3: Competitive Positioning - TotalEnergies has a minimal exposure to the mature North American region, with upstream assets that have lower natural decline rates, providing a competitive advantage [7]. - The company is strengthening its position in natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and low-carbon electricity, which is likely to positively impact earnings [6]. Group 4: Market Challenges - Despite its strengths, TotalEnergies faces competition from national and international oil and gas majors, impacting its ability to acquire hydrocarbon assets and licenses [8]. - Currency fluctuations and inflationary trends present financial risks, particularly in emerging markets where TotalEnergies is expanding its presence [8].