Core Points - United Airlines issued a nationwide ground stop for all mainline flights due to an emergency alarm at its Chicago operations center [1][3] - The ground stop was temporary, and operations have since returned to normal with employees back at the primary operations center [1] - No flights were diverted during the ground stop, and United Express, the regional line, remained unaffected [3] - United Airlines operates the largest fleet among American airlines, with a total of 1,023 aircraft [3]

Core Insights - United Airlines reported adjusted diluted earnings per share of $3.87, beating analyst estimates by 1.57%, while total revenue of $15.2 billion was slightly below forecasts [1][2] - Domestic passenger revenue softened due to higher expenses and pressure on main cabin fares, but loyalty revenue growth and increased demand in premium cabins contributed positively [1][5] - Management raised full-year adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance, indicating optimism for the remainder of fiscal 2025 [1][11] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP) was $3.87, compared to estimates of $3.81 and down 6.5% from $4.14 in Q2 2024 [2] - Total revenue (GAAP) was $15.24 billion, slightly below the estimate of $15.36 billion, and up 1.7% year-over-year [2] - Net income (GAAP) decreased to $973 million, down 26.4% from $1.32 billion in Q2 2024 [2] - Free cash flow (Non-GAAP) was $1.1 billion, down 38.5% from $1.84 billion in the previous year [2] - Adjusted operating margin (Non-GAAP) was 11.6%, down 1.5 percentage points from 13.1% in Q2 2024 [2] Business Model and Strategic Focus - United Airlines operates a hub-and-spoke system, maximizing connectivity and operational efficiency while focusing on customer loyalty [3] - Recent strategic shifts include growing international presence, expanding loyalty and premium offerings, and investing in sustainability initiatives [4] Operational Highlights - GAAP revenue growth of 1.7% was overshadowed by a 6.5% increase in operating expenses [5] - Domestic passenger revenue declined by 0.7%, while international passenger revenue grew by 3.8%, driven by strong demand in Pacific routes [5][6] - Premium cabin ticket revenue increased by 5.6% year-over-year, and loyalty revenue climbed 8.7% [6] - Operational reliability improved, achieving the best post-pandemic scores for on-time departures [6] Cost and Financial Health - Labor expenses rose by 7.7%, with maintenance costs increasing by 20.8% [8] - The company ended the quarter with $18.6 billion in available liquidity and reduced net leverage to 2.0 times trailing twelve-month earnings [9] - Free cash flow remained positive at $1.13 billion despite a year-over-year decline [9] Future Outlook - Management raised full-year adjusted diluted EPS guidance to a range of $9.00 to $11.00, reflecting improved bookings and stronger business travel demand [11] - Key areas to monitor include domestic revenue trends, labor cost increases, and potential upside from loyalty revenue growth and international strength [12]

Core Viewpoint - United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is focusing on premium travel, operational efficiency, and global expansion, leading to positive financial projections and a raised price forecast by Bank of America Securities analyst Andrew G. Didora from $90 to $108 [1][5]. Financial Performance - The airline reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $3.87 per share, surpassing analyst estimates of $3.77 per share [1]. - The full-year 2025 EPS estimate has been increased to $10.50 from $10.00, and the 2026 EPS is raised to $12.40 from $11.41, indicating nearly 20% year-over-year growth [5]. Revenue and Demand Trends - United Airlines' emphasis on premium travel, international routes, and loyalty programs is contributing to industry-leading margins [2]. - There are signs of domestic demand recovery in early July, with unit revenue performance expected to rebound, nearing flat in Q4 2025 after a 4% decline in Q2 [2]. Cost Management - Cost trends are improving, with second-half unit cost growth projected to be around 2.5%, lower than the previously estimated range of 3.5%-4.0% [3]. - Despite potential cost headwinds from a new flight attendant contract, the outlook for unit costs remains positive, with expected growth of about 2.5% into 2026 [4]. Earnings Projections - The third quarter 2025 EPS is now projected at $2.70, at the higher end of the guided range of $2.25–$2.75 [4].

Core Insights - Delta Air Lines and United Airlines dominate the U.S. airline industry, accounting for over 86% of profits among the seven largest airlines last year, despite overall airline margins being less than 4% [2][3] - Both airlines are expected to perform better than competitors due to their strong networks and focus on premium travel, with analysts noting a clear distinction between brand loyalty towards Delta and United versus other carriers [3][4] - The airline industry is facing challenges with falling airfare and weaker domestic travel demand, leading to a 3.5% drop in airfare in June compared to the previous year, despite overall inflation rising [6][10] Financial Performance - United Airlines reported a 7% drop in domestic revenue per available seat mile in the second quarter, while Delta's domestic revenue decreased by 5% [10][11] - Delta's revenue from its American Express partnership rose by 10% to $2 billion in the second quarter, indicating strength in premium-class revenue, which was up 5% [12][11] Strategic Initiatives - Airlines are exploring new revenue streams, with Southwest Airlines introducing checked bag fees and plans for assigned seating, while Delta is testing segmentation in premium cabins [13][14][15] - United Airlines is focusing on expanding its premium-economy cabin, which is generating good returns, and is revamping its Polaris class for long-haul flights [17][18] Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with Delta and United both trimming their 2025 outlooks while emphasizing international travel and loyalty programs to boost revenues [9][10] - The industry is experiencing oversupply in certain markets, particularly in trans-Atlantic routes, as demand stabilizes post-pandemic [11][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Bank of America Global Research has raised the price target for United Airlines from $90 to $108 [1]

[PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION](index=3&type=section&id=PART%20I.%20FINANCIAL%20INFORMATION) Overview of UAL's unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for Q2 and H1 2025, including key financial performance and position [Item 1. Financial Statements](index=3&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Financial%20Statements) Presents UAL's unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements for Q2 and H1 2025, showing a Q2 net income decrease but H1 increase [United Airlines Holdings, Inc. Financial Statements](index=3&type=section&id=United%20Airlines%20Holdings%2C%20Inc.%20Financial%20Statements) UAL reported Q2 2025 operating revenues of **$15.2 billion** and net income of **$973 million**, with H1 net income at **$1.4 billion** UAL Statement of Operations Highlights (Q2 & H1 2025 vs 2024) | Metric (in millions, except per share amounts) | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total operating revenue** | $15,236 | $14,986 | $28,448 | $27,525 | | **Operating income** | $1,325 | $1,929 | $1,932 | $2,028 | | **Net income** | $973 | $1,323 | $1,361 | $1,199 | | **Diluted EPS** | $2.97 | $3.96 | $4.12 | $3.60 | UAL Balance Sheet Highlights (as of June 30, 2025) | Metric (in millions) | June 30, 2025 | December 31, 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Total current assets** | $20,258 | $18,883 | | **Total assets** | $77,163 | $74,083 | | **Total current liabilities** | $28,992 | $23,314 | | **Total liabilities** | $63,790 | $61,408 | | **Total stockholders' equity** | $13,373 | $12,675 | UAL Cash Flow Highlights (Six Months Ended June 30) | Metric (in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net cash provided by operating activities** | $5,927 | $5,723 | | **Net cash provided by (used in) investing activities** | $(3,042) | $1,575 | | **Net cash used in financing activities** | $(2,300) | $(2,518) | [United Airlines, Inc. Financial Statements](index=8&type=section&id=United%20Airlines%2C%20Inc.%20Financial%20Statements) Financial statements for the primary operating subsidiary, United Airlines, Inc., whose results are nearly identical to UAL's consolidated figures - United Airlines, Inc. comprises substantially all of UAL's operating revenues, expenses, assets, and liabilities, with its financial results consolidated into UAL's statements[25](index=25&type=chunk) United Airlines, Inc. Net Income (Q2 & H1 2025 vs 2024) | Metric (in millions) | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | H1 2025 | H1 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Net income** | $974 | $1,324 | $1,361 | $1,200 | [Combined Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements](index=13&type=section&id=Combined%20Notes%20to%20Condensed%20Consolidated%20Financial%20Statements) Detailed disclosures on revenue by geography, share repurchases, debt, aircraft commitments, and labor agreements Operating Revenue by Geography (Six Months Ended June 30) | Region (in millions) | 2025 | 2024 | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Domestic (U.S. and Canada) | $16,818 | $16,434 | | Atlantic | $5,270 | $5,110 | | Latin America | $2,919 | $2,791 | | Pacific | $3,442 | $3,190 | | **Total** | **$28,448** | **$27,525** | - In the first six months of 2025, the company repurchased **7.6 million shares** of common stock for approximately **$0.6 billion**, with approximately **$0.8 billion** remaining available under the share repurchase program as of July 10, 2025[37](index=37&type=chunk) - In May 2025, the company reached a Tentative Agreement (TA) with the Association of Flight Attendants (AFA), resulting in a special charge of **$561 million** in Q2 2025 for a one-time ratification payment[59](index=59&type=chunk)[60](index=60&type=chunk) Firm Aircraft Commitments as of June 30, 2025 (in billions) | Period | Last Six Months of 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | After 2029 | Total | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | **Purchase commitments** | $6.3 | $6.9 | $5.0 | $6.3 | $8.0 | $22.4 | $54.8 | [Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations](index=21&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Management%27s%20Discussion%20and%20Analysis%20of%20Financial%20Condition%20and%20Results%20of%20Operations) Management discusses Q2 2025 financial results, highlighting revenue growth, expense increases, and strong liquidity amidst market challenges [Executive Summary](index=21&type=section&id=Executive%20Summary) Overview of UAL's business, key economic, market, and governmental factors impacting performance, including aircraft delivery delays and geopolitical conflicts - The company operates a comprehensive route network with mainland U.S. hubs in Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, New York/Newark, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C[65](index=65&type=chunk) - Key economic and market factors impacting the business include aircraft delivery delays (especially the 737 MAX 10), rising inflation, volatile fuel prices, and changes in travel patterns[66](index=66&type=chunk)[67](index=67&type=chunk) - Significant governmental factors include airspace closures due to conflicts in Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East, and increased FAA oversight of aircraft production[67](index=67&type=chunk) [Results of Operations](index=22&type=section&id=Results%20of%20Operations) Detailed comparison of Q2 and H1 2025 operating results, showing revenue growth, increased expenses, and a decrease in operating income Key Operating Metrics (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024) | Metric | 2025 | 2024 | % Change / Point Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Capacity (ASMs in millions) | 84,347 | 79,678 | 5.9% | | Passenger Load Factor | 83.1% | 84.2% | (1.1) pts | | PRASM (cents) | 16.40 | 17.17 | (4.5)% | | TRASM (cents) | 18.06 | 18.81 | (4.0)% | | CASM (cents) | 16.49 | 16.39 | 0.6% | | Avg. Fuel Price per Gallon ($) | $2.34 | $2.76 | (15.2)% | Key Operating Metrics (H1 2025 vs H1 2024) | Metric | 2025 | 2024 | % Change / Point Change | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | Capacity (ASMs in millions) | 159,503 | 151,346 | 5.4% | | Passenger Load Factor | 81.3% | 82.3% | (1.0) pt | | PRASM (cents) | 16.11 | 16.51 | (2.4)% | | TRASM (cents) | 17.84 | 18.19 | (1.9)% | | CASM (cents) | 16.62 | 16.85 | (1.3)% | | Avg. Fuel Price per Gallon ($) | $2.43 | $2.82 | (13.8)% | - Q2 2025 operating expenses increased by **$854 million (6.5%)** YoY, primarily driven by a **$411 million** increase in special charges (related to the AFA labor agreement), a **$315 million** increase in salaries, and a **$149 million** increase in aircraft maintenance[74](index=74&type=chunk) [Liquidity and Capital Resources](index=28&type=section&id=Liquidity%20and%20Capital%20Resources) UAL maintains strong liquidity with **$15.6 billion** in cash and investments, managing significant debt and aircraft purchase commitments - As of June 30, 2025, the company had **$15.6 billion** in unrestricted cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, plus an undrawn **$3.0 billion** revolving credit facility[101](index=101&type=chunk)[102](index=102&type=chunk) - On July 7, 2025, the company prepaid the entire **$1.52 billion** outstanding principal balance of its MileagePlus senior secured notes[103](index=103&type=chunk) Expected vs. Contractual Aircraft Deliveries (Select Types) | Aircraft Type | Number of Firm Commitments | Expected Deliveries (Last half 2025) | Expected Deliveries (2026) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- | | 787 | 143 | 5 | 20 | | 737 MAX 9 | 119 | 13 | 69 | | 737 MAX 10 | 167 | 0 | 0 | | A321neo | 135 | 13 | 18 | [Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk](index=32&type=section&id=Item%203.%20Quantitative%20and%20Qualitative%20Disclosures%20About%20Market%20Risk) No material changes in market risk from the information provided in the 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K - There have been no material changes in market risk from the information provided in the 2024 Form 10-K[123](index=123&type=chunk) [Item 4. Controls and Procedures](index=32&type=section&id=Item%204.%20Controls%20and%20Procedures) Management concluded disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of June 30, 2025, with no material changes to internal controls - The CEO and CFO concluded that as of June 30, 2025, the company's disclosure controls and procedures were effective[124](index=124&type=chunk) - There were no changes in internal control over financial reporting during the quarter ended June 30, 2025, that materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, internal controls[125](index=125&type=chunk) [PART II. OTHER INFORMATION](index=32&type=section&id=PART%20II.%20OTHER%20INFORMATION) Provides additional information including legal proceedings, risk factors, equity sales, and other disclosures [Item 1. Legal Proceedings](index=32&type=section&id=Item%201.%20Legal%20Proceedings) Refers to the 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K for a description of legal proceedings - For a description of legal proceedings, the report refers to the 2024 Form 10-K[126](index=126&type=chunk) [Item 1A. Risk Factors](index=32&type=section&id=Item%201A.%20Risk%20Factors) Refers to the 2024 Annual Report on Form 10-K for a discussion of risk factors affecting the company - For a discussion of risk factors, the report refers to the 2024 Form 10-K[127](index=127&type=chunk) [Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds](index=32&type=section&id=Item%202.%20Unregistered%20Sales%20of%20Equity%20Securities%20and%20Use%20of%20Proceeds) Details common stock repurchases during Q2 2025, totaling **3,543,780 shares** under a **$1.5 billion** program Issuer Purchases of Equity Securities (Q2 2025) | Period | Total Shares Purchased | Average Price Paid per Share ($) | | :--- | :--- | :--- | | April 1-30 | 2,678,987 | $62.78 | | May 1-31 | 475,951 | $76.21 | | June 1-30 | 388,842 | $77.87 | | **Total** | **3,543,780** | - | - The Board of Directors authorized a new **$1.5 billion** share repurchase program on October 15, 2024, with approximately **$0.7 billion** used to repurchase **8.7 million shares** as of July 10, 2025[129](index=129&type=chunk) [Item 5. Other Information](index=33&type=section&id=Item%205.%20Other%20Information) No director or officer adopted, modified, or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement during Q2 2025 - During Q2 2025, no director or officer informed the company of the adoption, modification, or termination of a Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement[131](index=131&type=chunk) [Item 6. Exhibits](index=34&type=section&id=Item%206.%20Exhibits) This section provides an index of the exhibits filed with the Form 10-Q, including certifications and an amendment to an aircraft purchase agreement - Exhibits filed include Sarbanes-Oxley Act certifications (Exhibits 31.1-32.2) and an amendment to the Airbus A350-900 Purchase Agreement (Exhibit 10.2)[134](index=134&type=chunk)

Core Insights - United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) reported mixed second-quarter 2025 results, with earnings surpassing estimates but revenues falling short [1][11] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 2025 was $3.87, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny but declining 6.5% year-over-year [1][11] - Operating revenues reached $15.2 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $15.4 billion, but increased 1.7% year-over-year [2][11] Revenue Breakdown - Passenger revenues, which constituted 90.8% of total revenues, rose 1.1% year-over-year to $13.8 billion [2] - Cargo revenues increased by 3.8% year-over-year to $430 million, while revenues from other sources grew 8.8% year-over-year to $970 million [2][3] - Premium cabin revenues saw a 5.6% year-over-year increase, and loyalty revenues rose by 8.7% [3] Operational Performance - Airline traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, grew by 4.5%, while capacity, measured in available seat miles, expanded by 5.9% [6] - The consolidated load factor decreased by 1.1 percentage points year-over-year to 83.1% due to capacity growth outpacing traffic improvement [6][11] - Consolidated passenger revenue per available seat mile fell by 4.5% year-over-year, and total revenue per available seat mile decreased by 4% [7] Cost and Expenses - Operating expenses increased by 6.5% year-over-year to $13.9 billion [8] - Consolidated unit cost per available seat mile, excluding certain expenses, rose by 2.2% year-over-year to 12.36 cents [8] Financial Position - UAL ended Q2 2025 with cash and cash equivalents of $9.35 billion, slightly down from $9.37 billion in the previous quarter [9] - Long-term debt and financial liabilities decreased to $20.8 billion from $24.4 billion at the end of Q1 2025 [9] - The company repurchased $0.2 billion of shares in Q2 2025 and generated $1.13 billion in free cash flow [9] Future Outlook - UAL anticipates a rebound in demand in the second half of 2025, with an updated full-year EPS guidance of $9.00 to $11.00 [12][13] - For Q3 2025, UAL expects adjusted EPS between $2.25 and $2.75, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $2.70 [12] - The company expects adjusted capital expenditures to be less than $6.5 billion [13]

Market Overview - The stock market is currently experiencing noise that distracts investors from fundamental performance, particularly as the S&P 500 approaches all-time highs, making it difficult for portfolios to perform effectively [1] Economic Outlook - A potential bullish cycle is anticipated in the industrial and transportation sectors, which are cyclical and can guide the broader economy [2] Company Insights: 3M - 3M's stock has seen a significant increase of up to 22% over the past quarter, reaching a new 52-week high, with expectations for further upside due to anticipated lower interest rates [4][3] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) surprised analysts by reaching $1.88, exceeding the expected $1.77, indicating a potential end to a downtrend in EPS [5][6] - 3M's current P/E ratio stands at 19.9, significantly higher than the industrial sector average of 7.2, reflecting strong market confidence [7] Company Insights: Alcoa - Alcoa's stock is trading at $29.66, approximately 60% of its 52-week high, suggesting that the market has priced in risks associated with the metals industry [8] - Analysts, including Citigroup's Alexander Hacking, have upgraded Alcoa to a Buy with a price target of $42, indicating a potential upside of 47% from current levels [10] - Alcoa reported an EPS of $0.39, beating estimates, and revenue rose 3.9% year-over-year to $3.02 billion, with expectations for further EPS growth [11] Company Insights: United Airlines - United Airlines stock has increased by 33.4% over the past quarter, with a recent EPS of $3.87 beating estimates, indicating strong financial performance in the airline sector [12][14] - The consensus price target for United Airlines is $104.5, suggesting an additional upside of 18.1% [15] - Low oil prices are expected to positively impact margins, potentially leading to further EPS surprises in the upcoming quarter [16]

Core Point - United Airlines announced that the Airbus A321XLR model will not be integrated into its fleet until the summer of 2026 [1] Company Summary - United Airlines is delaying the introduction of the Airbus A321XLR aircraft, which is a significant development for the airline's fleet expansion plans [1] Industry Summary - The postponement of the A321XLR's entry into service may impact the competitive landscape in the airline industry, particularly among carriers planning to utilize this aircraft for its long-range capabilities [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - United Airlines reported a top line revenue increase of 1.7% to a record $15.2 billion in Q2 2025 [25] - Earnings per share (EPS) was $3.87, within guidance and ahead of Wall Street expectations of $3.81 [38] - The company generated over $1.1 billion in free cash flow and ended the quarter with $18.6 billion in liquidity [41][42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - International flying outperformed domestic, with a decrease in RASM of 1% for international compared to a 7% decrease for domestic [27] - Premium cabin revenues increased by 5.6% year over year, while economy cabin revenues were negative [28] - Cargo performance was strong, with revenue up 4% year over year on record volumes [28] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand environment showed a six-point positive swing in sales in July compared to Q2, with a double-digit increase in business revenues [31] - Newark's share of New York City sales has largely recovered in July, which is critical for revenue performance [29] - The overall demand environment has improved due to reduced macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to positive year-over-year yields for domestic ticket sales for the first time since February [31][96] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on revenue diversity, including both basic economy and premium offerings, as a formula for industry-leading margins [12] - United Airlines plans to introduce the Polaris Studio Suite later this year to enhance premium capacity and revenue diversity [36] - The company is optimistic about future growth, particularly with the expected reduction in low-margin airline capacity [30][37] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of demand and the operational improvements at Newark Airport, which is now performing better than ever [19][20] - The company anticipates continued stabilization in the geopolitical environment, which is expected to drive stronger bookings [40] - Management believes that the industry is transforming into a healthier state, with brand loyalty becoming increasingly important [39] Other Important Information - The company has reduced gross debt by almost $11 billion since the peak level during COVID [42] - United Airlines repurchased $235 million worth of shares during the quarter, leaving $829 million in authorization [43] - The company is targeting net leverage below two times and continues to work towards achieving investment grade [42] Q&A Session Summary Question: On cost performance and distribution expenses - Management highlighted strong cost performance with a 2.2% CASM ex growth in Q2 and noted a long-term trend of decreasing distribution expenses due to more customers choosing direct channels [48][50] Question: On demand recovery and current levels - Management confirmed a six-point inflection in demand compared to Q2, particularly strong for business traffic, and expressed optimism about the recovery trajectory [51][52] Question: On guidance and demand acceleration - Management explained that guidance is conservative, accounting for potential uncertainties, but recent strong bookings suggest that the guidance may prove conservative [60] Question: On competitive positioning against Delta - Management emphasized a focus on returning to solid double-digit margins and highlighted the structural advantages of United's hubs and brand loyalty [71][72] Question: On the Connected Media initiative - Management indicated that they are working on building the technology stack and client roster for Connected Media, aiming to double revenues in 2025 compared to 2024 [114] Question: On fleet deliveries and supply chain - Management reported that Boeing is performing well with narrow-body deliveries, while wide-body deliveries are still uncertain due to engine constraints [118]