Group 1 - Visa is set to announce its Q3 FY'25 earnings on July 29, with revenues expected to rise by approximately 10% year-over-year to $9.82 billion and adjusted earnings predicted to be around $2.83 per share, reflecting a 17% increase compared to last year [2] - The anticipated growth is driven by increasing payment volumes and greater cross-border transactions, which are typically more profitable, along with strong performance in the value-added services segment [2] - The company currently has a market capitalization of $680 billion, with total revenue over the past twelve months at $38 billion, operating profits of $25 billion, and a net income of $20 billion [2] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that Visa has recorded 20 earnings data points over the last five years, with 11 positive and 9 negative one-day post-earnings returns, resulting in positive returns approximately 55% of the time [3] - The median of the 11 positive returns is 2.2%, while the median of the 9 negative returns is -1.6% [3] Group 3 - A correlation analysis between 1D, 5D, and 21D historical returns post-earnings suggests that understanding these correlations can help in making informed trading decisions [4] - If the 1D post-earnings return is positive, traders may consider going long for the subsequent 5 days if there is a strong correlation between 1D and 5D returns [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growing attention on stablecoins from the perspective of the internet industry, highlighting their potential to bridge traditional finance and Web3.0 through blockchain technology [1]. Group 1: Blockchain as the Infrastructure - Blockchain technology serves as the foundational architecture for stablecoins and Real World Assets (RWA), providing transparency, decentralization, and immutability [3]. - Stablecoins are pegged to fiat currencies or government bonds, utilizing blockchain smart contracts for 1:1 asset mapping, thus acting as a value bridge between traditional finance and Web3.0 [3]. - Compared to traditional payment systems like SWIFT, blockchain-based stablecoins offer significant advantages in efficiency and cost [3]. Group 2: Internet Companies and Stablecoins - The proliferation of stablecoins is unlikely to significantly impact existing domestic third-party payment systems like WeChat Pay and Alipay, which already operate as "quasi-stablecoins" [4]. - Internet companies involved in cross-border payments, such as JD.com and Ant Group, are more actively exploring stablecoin applications due to their large user bases and established payment scenarios [4]. - The advantages of internet companies in the stablecoin space include user scenarios, technical capabilities, and ecosystem synergy, which can enhance the network effects of stablecoins [4]. Group 3: Stablecoins and Web3.0 Ecosystem - Stablecoins can enhance the liquidity and growth of the DeFi ecosystem, attracting compliant stablecoins to the blockchain [5]. - The programmable nature of stablecoins allows for automated yield generation, a feature difficult to achieve in traditional finance [5]. - The collaboration between stablecoins and RWAs can broaden the asset categories in DeFi, introducing significant liquidity into traditional financial markets [5]. Group 4: Cross-Border Payment Advantages - Stablecoins present notable advantages in cross-border payments, offering faster transaction times and lower costs compared to traditional systems like SWIFT [13]. - The average settlement time for SWIFT is 0.5-6 days, while stablecoins can achieve near real-time settlements [13]. - In countries facing currency volatility, stablecoins can mitigate exchange rate risks and enhance payment efficiency [13]. Group 5: Internet Companies' Strategic Moves - Major internet companies are accelerating their stablecoin strategies, with JD.com and Ant Group planning to launch compliant stablecoins for cross-border payments [23]. - Visa and PayPal have also made significant moves in the stablecoin space, indicating a broader trend among tech giants to integrate stablecoins into their payment systems [23]. - The integration of stablecoins into existing ecosystems can lower transaction costs and enhance operational efficiency for internet companies [23]. Group 6: Future Implications for Web3.0 - The adoption of stablecoins is expected to increase the penetration of Web3.0 ecosystems, potentially leading to a more prosperous DeFi landscape [31]. - As stablecoins grow, they may attract more compliant stablecoins into the blockchain market, further enriching the DeFi asset base [31]. - The synergy between stablecoins and RWAs can significantly enhance liquidity and broaden the scope of financial products available in the DeFi space [31].

Industry Overview - Fintech is revolutionizing finance by enhancing accessibility, efficiency, and personalization of financial services, particularly for underserved populations [1] - The sector is democratizing access to banking and lending through low-cost, mobile-first solutions, bridging the financial inclusion gap [1] Payment Innovations - Fintech firms are driving significant changes in payments, including real-time transfers, digital wallets, and low-cost cross-border remittances [2] - Investment and wealth management have become more user-friendly with zero-commission platforms, robo-advisors, and fractional investing, empowering retail investors [2] AI and Credit Scoring - Fintechs are improving financial decision-making with AI-powered personal finance apps and alternative credit scoring systems that utilize behavioral and transactional data [3] - Fast digital loan approvals and automated underwriting are transforming borrowing and money management for individuals and businesses [3] Cybersecurity and Compliance - Fintechs are enhancing cybersecurity and compliance, with traditional banks increasingly adopting fintech strategies [4] - This shift presents investment opportunities in a high-growth sector that is redefining the global financial ecosystem [4] Visa Inc. Insights - Visa's market position is bolstered by consistent volume growth, strategic acquisitions, and innovations in digital payments [6] - The company is adapting to digital trends with services like Visa Token Service and exploring crypto partnerships [7] - Visa's AI-driven security tools are in high demand, helping block over $40 billion in attempted fraud annually [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Visa's fiscal 2025 sales and EPS indicates year-over-year growth of 10.3% and 12.9%, respectively [9] BGC Group Insights - BGC Group specializes in brokerage and financial technology, offering both voice/hybrid and fully electronic brokerage services [10] - The company's proprietary Fenics platform enhances trading efficiency and positions it at the forefront of digital transformation in capital markets [10] - BGC Group's revenue model includes transaction commissions and technology licensing, focusing on digital innovation and operational efficiency [12] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BGC's 2025 sales and EPS suggests year-over-year growth of 26.5% and 18.2%, respectively [13] Upstart Holdings Insights - Upstart utilizes AI to disrupt traditional lending by evaluating non-traditional data points for loan approvals [14] - The company earns revenue through referral fees, loan servicing fees, and securitization, with plans to expand into auto lending and small business loans [15][16] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Upstart's 2025 sales and EPS implies year-over-year growth of 59.5% and 890%, respectively [17]

Visa can operate with such strong margins because it has already set up its nearly ubiquitous global payment network. Additional transactions don't meaningfully increase its cost of goods sold. In short, Visa has an excellent business that has performed exceptionally well in the past. That's no guarantee of future success, but there are good reasons to expect Visa to continue along the same path. In 2018, Apple became the first publicly traded company to have a $1 trillion market cap. Since then, several mo ...

Group 1: Visa's Growth Potential - Visa processed $13.2 trillion in digital payments through 233.8 billion transactions last year, with 4.8 billion cards in circulation [4][5] - Visa benefits from multiple tailwinds including income growth, increased consumer spending, and the shift from cash to digital payments [5][6] - Revenue has increased by 171% over the past 10 years, and the company is focusing on value-added services which grew revenue by 22% year over year last quarter [6][7] - Visa's profit margins are high at 66%, and operating income is expected to double to between $50 billion and $100 billion in the next 10 years [8][9] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor's Explosive Growth - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the leading manufacturer of advanced semiconductors, with a revenue growth of 250% over the past 10 years to $97 billion [11][14] - TSMC's growth is driven by the increasing demand for AI-related chips from customers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices, with expectations for revenue to exceed $250 billion in the next decade [13][14] - With profit margins around 45%, TSMC could achieve over $100 billion in annual earnings, positioning it alongside current technology giants [14][15]

Market Overview - U.S. stock markets began July with strong performance, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reaching all-time highs, while the Dow lagged behind [2] - Year-to-date performance for major indexes shows the Dow up 4.9%, S&P 500 up 6.7%, and Nasdaq Composite up 6.9% [3] Visa Inc. - Visa's market position is supported by volume-driven growth, acquisitions, and technological leadership in digital payments [7] - The company benefits from increased digital transactions and cross-border volumes, with significant profit growth driven by ongoing investments in technology [8] - Visa has an expected revenue growth rate of 10.2% and earnings growth rate of 12.9% for the current year [11] The Walt Disney Co. - Disney reported steady second-quarter fiscal 2025 results with year-over-year increases in revenues and earnings [12] - The company expects double-digit operating income growth in fiscal 2025, with ESPN showing significant viewership growth [13] - Disney has transformed its streaming business into a profitable growth engine, achieving $336 million in DTC operating income in the second quarter [14] - Expected revenue growth rate for Disney is 4.1% and earnings growth rate is 16.3% for the current year [15] Microsoft Corp. - Microsoft is leveraging AI momentum and Copilot adoption, with strong demand for Azure and Office 365 driving revenue growth [16] - The company anticipates a 13.7% increase in net sales for fiscal 2025 compared to fiscal 2024 [17] - Expected revenue growth rate for Microsoft is 12.4% and earnings growth rate is 12% for the current year [18] The Coca-Cola Co. - Coca-Cola achieved strong first-quarter 2025 results, marking its ninth consecutive quarter of exceeding expectations [19] - The company's all-weather strategy, which combines marketing, innovation, and revenue growth management, is expected to drive revenue growth in 2025 [20] - Expected revenue growth rate for Coca-Cola is 2.6% and earnings growth rate is 3.1% for the current year [21] International Business Machines Corp. - IBM is positioned to benefit from demand for hybrid cloud and AI, focusing on its watsonx platform for AI capabilities [22][24] - The company is expected to see growth in its Software and Consulting segments due to a better business mix and productivity gains [23] - Expected revenue growth rate for IBM is 5.5% and earnings growth rate is 6% for the current year [25]

Core Viewpoint - Apple, Visa, and Mastercard achieved a legal victory in an antitrust lawsuit, with a federal judge dismissing the case due to insufficient evidence from the plaintiffs [2][3]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - U.S. District Judge David Dugan ruled that the merchants did not provide adequate evidence to support their claims against Apple for not launching a competing payment network [2]. - The judge allowed the plaintiffs to amend their lawsuit to strengthen their claims, despite finding their initial allegations to be circumstantial [3]. - The defendants, Apple, Visa, and Mastercard, denied any wrongdoing and sought dismissal of the lawsuit [3]. Group 2: Allegations and Defense - The lawsuit, filed in 2023, accused Apple of conspiring with Visa and Mastercard to avoid competition, claiming that Visa and Mastercard paid Apple a significant portion of transaction fees for purchases made using Apple Pay [4]. - The plaintiffs alleged that these payments constituted a "very large and ongoing cash bribe" amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars annually [5]. - Apple contended that the complaint did not demonstrate any intention to enter the payments network market to compete with Visa or Mastercard [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The ruling comes at a time when mobile wallets are increasingly influencing consumer in-store transactions globally, accounting for 21% of all in-store transactions, reflecting a 10.9% increase since 2022 [6].

Core Insights - Visa Inc. is adapting to a market shift towards digital wallets and cryptocurrency, moving beyond traditional card-based payments [1][4] - The company has implemented the Visa Token Service to enhance security and facilitate transactions with digital wallets [2] - Visa is expanding its presence in the cryptocurrency sector through partnerships and the introduction of crypto-linked cards [3] Digital Strategy - Visa's digital strategy includes the Visa Token Service, which replaces sensitive card information with secured tokens, allowing integration with platforms like Apple Pay and Google Pay [2] - The company reported a 9% year-over-year growth in processed transactions in Q2 FY25, indicating successful adaptation to digital wallet integration [8] Cryptocurrency Initiatives - Visa is actively collaborating with various cryptocurrency platforms and exploring stablecoin transactions on blockchain networks [3] - The company's extensive acceptance network positions it well to adapt to the evolving financial landscape [3] Competitive Landscape - Competitors such as Mastercard and PayPal are also enhancing their digital wallet offerings, with Mastercard focusing on tokenization and contactless payments [5] - PayPal operates its own digital wallet with features like Venmo and crypto trading, directly engaging with users [6] Financial Performance - Visa's shares have increased by 13.2% year-to-date, outperforming the industry growth of 5.4% [7] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for Visa is 28.76, higher than the industry average of 22.76 [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Visa's fiscal 2025 earnings suggests a 12.9% increase compared to the previous year [11]

Industry Overview - The financial transaction services industry is poised for growth due to increasing transaction volumes driven by digital adoption and ongoing global digitization [1][2] - Providers are also benefiting from the rise in contactless and cross-border payments, resilient consumer spending, and strategic growth through mergers and acquisitions [2][4] - The industry is currently ranked in the top 18% of Zacks Industry Rank, indicating potential outperformance in the market over the next three to six months [5] Company Insights Visa Inc. - Visa's market position is strengthened by consistent volume-driven growth, acquisitions, and technological leadership in digital payments [7] - The company has invested $3.5 billion in a data platform to prevent $40 billion in fraud annually, embedding AI into over 100 products for fraud prevention and cybersecurity [9][10] - Visa's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 10.2% and 12.9%, respectively, with a recent improvement in earnings estimates [10] Mastercard Inc. - Mastercard is expanding its addressable markets through acquisitions, with an expected net revenue increase of 13% year over year in 2025 [11] - The company is leveraging AI across various operations, including fraud detection, payment processing optimization, and customer experience personalization [12] - Mastercard's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 13.1% and 9.7%, respectively, with a recent improvement in earnings estimates [14] PayPal Holdings Inc. - PayPal is experiencing robust growth in total payment volume, with strengthening customer engagement and improving monetization efforts on its platform [15][16] - The company is leveraging AI to enhance fraud detection, personalized experiences, and operational efficiency [17] - PayPal's expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 3.7% and 8%, respectively, with a recent improvement in earnings estimates [17]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation on August 1 is expected to transform the financial system, enhancing cross-border remittance efficiency and reducing reliance on traditional banking systems like SWIFT [1][3]. Group 1: Stablecoin Overview - Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency whose value is pegged to fiat currencies or commodities, making them less volatile compared to other cryptocurrencies [3]. - The global legislative interest in stablecoins is rising, with various countries, including the US and UK, advancing their own regulations [3]. Group 2: Advantages of Stablecoins - Stablecoins can mitigate geopolitical risks by providing a stable value without the need for traditional banking transactions, potentially serving as an alternative to SWIFT for cross-border transactions [3][5]. - Transactions using stablecoins are faster and cheaper compared to traditional banking systems, with blockchain technology enabling transaction confirmations in about one minute, significantly reducing settlement times and costs [6]. Group 3: Market Implications - The clarity in stablecoin regulations has led to increased interest in related stocks in both US and Hong Kong markets, with a list of companies involved in stablecoin issuance and technology emerging [7]. - Major companies like Circle, Coinbase, and PayPal are actively involved in the stablecoin space, indicating a growing market presence [7]. Group 4: Impact on the Renminbi - The development of stablecoins could bolster the international status of the Renminbi, with Hong Kong potentially serving as a testing ground for Renminbi-linked stablecoins [8][10]. - Recent data shows that the Renminbi's share in bilateral trade settlements has reached over 30%, suggesting a growing acceptance that could be further enhanced by stablecoin initiatives [10]. Group 5: Challenges and Considerations - Despite the potential benefits, the international recognition of the Renminbi still depends on its inherent attractiveness, which is currently challenged by concerns over China's debt levels and economic stability [10]. - Structural reforms and easing of currency controls are necessary to enhance the appeal of Renminbi assets in the global market [10].