A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Vornado (VNO) . Shares have added about 1.2% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Vornado due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?It turns out, est ...

28 May 2025 | 6:25PM EDT Caitlin Burrows Vornado Realty Trust (VNO): 1Q25 Model Update: PENN 2 leasing (and NOI/FFO contribution) in focus Following 1Q25 earnings, we provide earnings call takeaways, update model and price target, and show valuation trends. For additional office insight, we are hosting meetings with HPP (on 6/3) and KRC (on 6/4) as part of NAREIT in NYC, and a separate group event with Tishman Speyer on June 10 in NYC. Please be in touch if you would like to join. Earnings call takeaways Se ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Sell" rating to Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) with a 12-month price target of $33.00, indicating a downside potential of 13.1% from the current price of $37.97 [14]. Core Insights - Management believes it is in a landlord's market, with strong tenant demand for Class A office space in Manhattan and constrained new supply due to high replacement costs and interest rates [3]. - VNO's occupancy in New York decreased from 88.8% at the end of 4Q24 to 84.4% in 1Q25 but is expected to recover to the low 90% range within 12 months due to leasing activity [3]. - The company completed significant leasing transactions, including a 337k SF lease by Universal Music Group at PENN 2 and a 222k SF lease at 555 California Street in San Francisco [3][11]. - VNO's 2025 comparable FFO is expected to be flat compared to 2024, with meaningful growth anticipated by 2027 driven by the lease-up of PENN 1 and PENN 2 [4]. Financial Performance - VNO's NTM FFO is currently trading at 17.9x, below its historical average of 22.3x, while trading at a 6.0% premium relative to the REIT sector [10]. - On an AFFO basis, VNO is trading at 37.9x NTM AFFO, significantly higher than its pre-pandemic average of 32.0x, reflecting an 88% premium compared to the REITs average [10]. - The report updates estimates for VNO, with 2025 NAREIT FFO projected at $2.20, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates, while 2026 and 2027 show growth [12]. Valuation Trends - The report notes that VNO's premium versus the REIT sector is approaching historical average levels, indicating a potential normalization in valuation [6]. - The updated price target reflects a revised AFFO multiple of 27.0x, up from 26.2x, based on recent leasing strength and market movements [12].

Core Viewpoint - Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) has shown a stock price increase of 6.7% over the past month, outperforming the industry growth of 3.4%, driven by strong demand for high-quality office spaces and a solid balance sheet [1]. Company Overview - Vornado Realty Trust is an office real estate investment trust (REIT) that owns high-quality office properties in key markets such as New York, Chicago, and San Francisco [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from tenants' demand for premier office spaces with superior amenities [1]. Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vornado's 2025 funds from operations (FFO) per share has been revised upward by two cents to $2.20 [2]. - As of March 31, 2025, Vornado had $2.3 billion in liquidity, including $807 million in cash and cash equivalents, and $1.5 billion available under its revolving credit facilities [7]. Growth Drivers - Vornado's strategy of focusing on high-rent, high-barrier-to-entry markets and a diversified tenant base is expected to drive steady cash flows and long-term growth [3]. - The growth in office-using jobs and the expansion of technology, finance, and media firms are anticipated to bolster rental revenues in the upcoming quarters [4]. - The company leased 709,000 square feet in its New York office portfolio at an initial rent of $95.53 per square foot during the first quarter of 2025 [4]. Market Trends - Rents in newly constructed or redeveloped assets with ample amenities at transit-centric locations have increased, positioning Vornado to benefit from this trend [5]. - The company is engaging in opportunistic developments and divestitures, which provide capital for reinvestment in growth initiatives [6]. Strategic Initiatives - Vornado's strategic sell-outs, such as the sale of two condominium units at 220 Central Park South for net proceeds of approximately $24.7 million, are expected to enhance its financial strength and support future growth [6][7].

Company Overview - Vornado Realty Trust is a fully-integrated equity real estate investment trust [2] Transaction Details - Vornado Realty Trust's 55% owned joint venture has agreed to sell 512 West 22 Street, a 173,000 square foot Class A office building, for $205 million [1] - The sale is expected to close in the third quarter of 2025 and is subject to customary closing conditions [1] - A portion of the proceeds will be used to repay the $123.6 million mortgage loan encumbering the property [1]

Group 1 - Vornado Realty Trust reported a total New York occupancy of 83.5% for fiscal 2025 first quarter, which is a decrease of 470 basis points compared to the same period last year and a decline from 87.6% in the fourth quarter [1] - The company is focusing on long-term wealth creation by targeting undervalued high-growth companies, high-dividend stocks, REITs, and green energy firms [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable FFO for the first quarter was $0.63 per share, an increase of $0.08 compared to $0.55 per share in the same quarter last year, primarily due to the positive ground rent reset at PENN1 and higher NOI from rent commencements [19][27] - Overall GAAP same store NOI increased by 3.5% [19] - The company expects 2025 comparable FFO to be essentially flat compared to last year, with significant earnings growth anticipated by 2027 [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company leased a total of 1,039,000 square feet, with 709,000 square feet in New York office space at starting rents of $95 per square foot [19][30] - A major lease of 337,000 square feet was completed with Universal Music Group at PENN2, contributing to the overall leasing activity [19][30] - The occupancy rate in New York decreased to 84.4% from 88.8% due to PENN2 being placed fully into service, but is expected to rise to the low 90s over the next year [28][62] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The New York office leasing market maintained strong momentum, with the strongest quarterly volume since Q4 2019 [28] - Availability in the best ISA market continues to shrink, with only 500,000 square feet of new construction set to deliver in the coming years [29] - The company anticipates strong rental rate growth due to a tightening market and a significant shortage of quality office space [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Penn District is viewed as a growth engine for the company, with expectations of significant incremental NOI from leasing activities [22] - The company plans to develop a grand 1,800,000 square foot headquarters tower at 350 Park Avenue, indicating a focus on high-quality developments [23][80] - The company is also exploring opportunities in apartment developments within the Penn District, although it remains primarily an office company [84] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the market despite current volatility, noting that demand for quality office space remains strong [28][29] - The company is optimistic about the future, with expectations of rising rents and decreasing concessions as the market tightens [98][102] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining financial strength to capitalize on future opportunities [80] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its debt by $915 million and increased cash balances to $1.4 billion, providing significant liquidity [18] - The company completed a master lease with NYU for 1,100,000 square feet, which will be treated as a sale for GAAP purposes, resulting in an estimated gain of approximately $800 million [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Breakdown of the 2,000,000 square foot negotiation between PENN1, PENN2, and the balance of the portfolio - Approximately 50% of the pipeline is from PENN1 and PENN2, with strong activity expected at PENN2 [39] Question: Confidence level around reaching 80% occupancy at PENN2 by year-end - Management remains confident in reaching the target, with significant rent increases expected [41] Question: Plans for cash on the balance sheet - Cash will be used for new investments, debt repayment, and maintaining a buffer for volatility [48][49] Question: Owner-occupier trends in the market - There is a growing trend of retailers and companies wanting to own their real estate in prime locations, which is beneficial for the market [91][92] Question: Real estate valuations and potential sales - The company is not willing to sell high-quality assets at distressed prices and expects values to recover to pre-COVID levels [59][60] Question: Changes in tenant behavior regarding concessions and renewals - There is a reduction in free rent packages, and tenants are coming to the company earlier for renewals due to rising rents [97]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable FFO for the first quarter was $0.63 per share, an increase of $0.08 compared to $0.55 per share in the same quarter last year, primarily due to positive ground rent reset at PENN1 and higher NOI from rent commencements [20][26] - Overall GAAP same store NOI increased by 3.5% [20] - The company expects 2025 comparable FFO to be essentially flat compared to last year, down from previous estimates due to lower than expected PENN1 ground rent [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company leased a total of 1,039,000 square feet, with 709,000 square feet in New York office space at starting rents of $95 per square foot [20][30] - A major lease of 337,000 square feet was completed with Universal Music Group at PENN2, contributing to the overall leasing activity [20][30] - At 555 California Street, 222,000 square feet were leased at starting rents of $120 per square foot, indicating strong performance in a historically soft market [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - New York office occupancy decreased to 84.4% from 88.8% due to PENN2 being placed fully into service, but is expected to rise to the low 90s over the next year [28] - The New York office leasing market maintained strong momentum, with the strongest quarterly volume since Q4 2019 [28] - Availability in the best ISA market continues to shrink, with only 500,000 square feet of new construction expected in the coming years [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on the Penn District as a growth engine, with expectations of significant earnings growth by 2027 from the lease-up of PENN1 and PENN2 [22][28] - The company plans to develop both office and apartments in the Penn District, but will primarily focus on office developments [84][104] - The company is actively looking for opportunities to deploy cash from recent transactions into new investments while also addressing higher-cost debt [46][47] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains optimistic about the market despite current volatility, citing strong demand and a shrinking supply of quality office space [29][30] - The company believes that as occupancy rises, earnings will significantly increase, with expectations to return to around 94% occupancy in the coming years [62][63] - Management highlighted the trend of owner-occupiers in both office and retail sectors, indicating a strong long-term demand for prime locations in New York [92][94] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its debt by $915 million and increased cash balances to $1.4 billion, providing significant liquidity [19] - The company completed a master lease with NYU for 1,100,000 square feet, which will generate substantial cash flow and is treated as a sale for GAAP purposes [15][16] - The company has achieved 100% certification across its entire portfolio of in-service buildings for sustainability [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break down the 2,000,000 square foot negotiation between PENN1, PENN2, and the balance of the portfolio? - Approximately 50% of the 2,000,000 square foot pipeline is from PENN1 and PENN2, with strong activity expected at PENN2 [38] Question: What is the confidence level around reaching 80% leased at PENN2 by year-end? - Management remains confident in reaching the target, with significant rent increases expected [40] Question: What are the plans for the $1.4 billion cash on the balance sheet? - The cash will be used for new investments, debt repayment, and maintaining a buffer for volatility [46][47] Question: How do you view the current market for retail and office owner-occupiers? - There is a strong trend of retailers wanting to own prime locations, which is beneficial for the market [92][94] Question: What is the outlook for real estate valuations? - The company expects to see valuations recover to pre-COVID levels, with great assets commanding great prices [56][57] Question: How much of the leasing pipeline will drive occupancy in the next couple of years? - A significant portion of the pipeline will increase occupancy, with many new deals and expansions expected [58]

Core Insights - Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) reported first-quarter 2025 funds from operations (FFO) of 63 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 52 cents, and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 14.5% [1] - Total revenues for the quarter reached $461.6 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $447.9 million, with a year-over-year growth of approximately 5.8% [2] Financial Performance - Total same-store net operating income (NOI) was $293.3 million, up from $269.1 million in the prior-year quarter, with significant increases in the New York, THE MART, and 555 California Street portfolios of 8.7%, 9.9%, and 7.9% respectively [3] - The New York office portfolio leased 709,000 square feet at an initial rent of $95.53 per square foot, with a weighted average lease term of 14.7 years [4] - In the New York retail portfolio, 25,000 square feet were leased at an initial rent of $222.20 per square foot, with a weighted average lease term of 14.3 years [5] - At THE MART, 83,000 square feet were leased at an initial rent of $51.33 per square foot, with a weighted average lease term of 8 years [6] - At 555 California Street, 222,000 square feet were leased at an initial rent of $120.65 per square foot, with a weighted average lease term of 13.1 years [7] Occupancy and Portfolio Activity - The total occupancy in the New York portfolio was 83.5%, a decrease of 470 basis points year over year, while THE MART's occupancy increased to 78.2%, up 60 basis points year over year, and 555 California Street's occupancy was 92.3%, down 220 basis points year over year [8] - Vornado disposed of two condominium units and ancillary amenities at 220 Central Park South for net proceeds of $24.7 million during the quarter [9] Balance Sheet - Vornado ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $568.9 million, down from $733.9 million as of December 31, 2024 [10] Market Position - Vornado currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable market position [11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Comparable FFO for the first quarter was $0.63 per share, an increase of $0.08 compared to $0.55 per share in the same quarter last year, primarily due to the positive ground rent reset at PENN1 and higher NOI from rent commencements [24][16] - Overall GAAP same store NOI increased by 3.5% [16] - The company expects 2025 comparable FFO to be essentially flat compared to last year, down from an earlier estimate of a slight decrease [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company leased a total of 1,039,000 square feet, with 709,000 square feet in New York office space at starting rents of $95 per square foot and a positive mark-to-market of 6.5% [16][27] - A major lease of 337,000 square feet was completed with Universal Music Group at PENN2, contributing to the overall leasing activity [28] - The occupancy rate in New York decreased to 84.4% from 88.8% due to PENN2 being placed fully into service, but is expected to rise to 87.4% with the completion of the master lease at 770 Broadway [25][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The New York office leasing market maintained strong momentum, with the strongest quarterly volume since Q4 2019 [25] - Availability in the best ISA market continues to shrink, with only 500,000 square feet of new construction set to deliver in the next several years [26] - The company anticipates strong rental rate growth due to a tightening market and a significant shortage of quality office space [26] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on the Penn District as a growth engine, with expectations of significant earnings growth by 2027 from the lease-up of PENN1 and PENN2 [20][25] - The company plans to sprinkle in a not insignificant amount of apartments in the Penn District while primarily remaining an office company [100] - The company is actively looking for new investment opportunities while maintaining a strong cash position for potential acquisitions and debt repayments [44][45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the market despite current volatility, noting that demand for quality office space remains strong [27][30] - The company believes that the current market dynamics will lead to increased rents and reduced concessions, indicating a shift towards a landlord's market [95] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining financial strength to capitalize on future opportunities [78] Other Important Information - The company has reduced its debt by $915 million and increased cash balances to $1.4 billion, providing immediate liquidity of $3 billion [15] - The company completed a significant transaction with NYU, which included a prepaid rent payment of $935 million [12][13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you break down the 2,000,000 square foot negotiation between PENN1, PENN2, and the balance of the portfolio? - Approximately 50% of the 2,000,000 square foot pipeline is related to PENN1 and PENN2, with strong activity expected at PENN2 [37][38] Question: What is the confidence level around reaching 80% occupancy at PENN2 by the end of the year? - Management remains confident in reaching the target occupancy, with significant activity and rising rents expected [39][40] Question: What are the plans for the cash on the balance sheet? - The cash will be used for debt repayment, maintaining liquidity, and funding new development opportunities [44][45] Question: How do you view the trend of owner-occupiers in the market? - There is a growing trend of retailers and companies wanting to own their spaces in prime locations, which is beneficial for the market [90] Question: What is the outlook for real estate valuations? - The company expects that great assets will command great prices, with a recovery in valuations anticipated [55][56]