Core Viewpoint - Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) is expected to report a decline in first-quarter 2025 earnings, with a consensus estimate of $1.72 per share, reflecting a 16.5% decrease from the previous year [1]. Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $84.5 billion, indicating a 1.7% increase from the year-ago figures [1]. - XOM has beaten earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 1.8% [2]. - The company has a positive Earnings ESP of +1.62% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [3]. Upstream Earnings and Market Conditions - XOM anticipates a sequential increase in upstream earnings for the March quarter by up to $800 million, attributed to favorable oil and gas prices [4]. - The average WTI spot prices for January, February, and March 2025 were $75.74, $71.53, and $68.24 per barrel, respectively, which are significantly above break-even prices in shale plays [4]. Energy Products Business - The Energy Products business unit is expected to see a sequential improvement of $300-$700 million due to changes in industry margins [5]. Stock Performance and Valuation - XOM's stock has decreased by 3.4% over the past year, outperforming the industry decline of 9.1% [8]. - The company's trailing 12-month EV/EBITDA ratio is 6.76, indicating it is trading at a premium compared to the industry average of 4.02 [10]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources enhances XOM's production capabilities in the Permian Basin, known for low production costs [12]. - XOM is investing in alternative energy projects, such as carbon capture and lithium battery technology, which present potential growth opportunities despite requiring substantial capital [14]. Competitor Analysis - Chevron (CVX) is also set to report first-quarter 2025 earnings on May 2, with an Earnings ESP of -5.51% [15]. - BP has reported first-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings of 53 cents per share, missing the consensus estimate and declining from the previous year's figure [16][17].

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil has significantly increased shareholder value over the past five years, with potential for continued growth through strategic investments and operational efficiencies [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - ExxonMobil's stock has more than doubled from an initial investment of $10,000 to $24,200, and tripled to nearly $30,600 when dividends are reinvested [3]. - The company saved over $10 billion in costs, grew earnings by over $15 billion, and added over $20 billion in cash flow from operating activities between 2019 and 2024 [5]. Shareholder Returns - ExxonMobil returned nearly $140 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases during the same period [5]. - The company has increased its dividend for 42 consecutive years, currently yielding 3.6% [7]. Growth Strategy - ExxonMobil acquired Pioneer Natural Resources in a $60 billion all-stock deal in 2023 and aims to reduce its break-even price to enhance profitability [6]. - The company projects an additional $20 billion in earnings and nearly $30 billion in cash flow from operating activities by 2030 [6].

Group 1: ExxonMobil's Low-Carbon Strategy - ExxonMobil is set to surpass European rivals Shell and BP in low-carbon energy investments, indicating a significant shift in the clean energy race among major oil companies [1] - The company plans to invest up to $30 billion in low-emission projects from 2025 to 2030, with approximately 65% of this budget aimed at helping third-party customers reduce emissions [2] - ExxonMobil's Low Carbon Solutions business is focusing on carbon capture, low-carbon hydrogen, and lithium, aligning with its engineering and process expertise [2] Group 2: Competitors' Strategies - Shell and BP are scaling back their clean energy investments, with Shell limiting its capital in low-carbon businesses to below 10% of total capital employed [4] - BP announced an increase in upstream oil and gas investment to $10 billion annually while cutting clean energy spending by over $5 billion [5] - Equinor plans to nearly halve its renewables and low-carbon investments to $5 billion, citing inflation and regulatory uncertainty [5] Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - ExxonMobil's clean energy ambitions are heavily reliant on the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, which provides significant incentives for carbon capture and hydrogen projects [6] - Currently, ExxonMobil allocates 17% of its capital expenditures to low-carbon investments, similar to Shell, while TotalEnergies leads with 29% [7] - As European counterparts retreat from climate-focused investments, ExxonMobil is positioned to take the lead in the next phase of energy evolution [8]

Core Viewpoint - The five major oil companies are facing significant financial challenges due to prolonged low international oil prices, geopolitical conflicts, and pressures from energy transition, leading to a cumulative profit decline exceeding $90 billion over three years [1][3]. Financial Performance - The profits of the five major oil companies peaked at approximately $280 billion in 2022 but fell by 23% to $215 billion in 2023, with a further projected decline of 15% to $183 billion in 2024 [3]. - The Brent crude oil price is expected to drop to an average of $81 per barrel in 2024, with predictions of further declines in 2025 as global oil supply increases [3][7]. - In Q1 2025, profits are anticipated to decrease by 18%, with Brent crude prices dipping below $60 per barrel, representing a decline of over 25% compared to the previous year [3]. Dividend and Share Buyback Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about the sustainability of high dividends and share buybacks, with warnings that companies like Shell and BP may need to cut dividends if oil prices remain below $60 per barrel [4]. - Shell's share buyback program for Q1 2025 has been reduced by 30%, and BP has suspended its buyback plans for the remainder of 2025 [4]. Credit Rating Risks - Moody's has placed Chevron and TotalEnergies on a "negative watch" list due to concerns that low oil prices may lead to increased debt levels [5]. Company Strategies - In response to financial pressures, companies are implementing cost-cutting measures, restructuring, and transitioning to renewable energy [6]. - ExxonMobil plans to reduce operating costs by 12% by 2025, while TotalEnergies is laying off 5% of its workforce [6]. - Shell aims to increase its renewable energy capacity target from 120 GW to 200 GW by 2030, and BP has partnered with Microsoft to supply 100% renewable energy to its data centers over the next decade [6]. Industry Outlook - The oil industry is expected to face ongoing challenges in the short term, with low oil prices likely becoming the norm and demand growth stagnating [7]. - Morgan Stanley predicts that Brent crude prices may stabilize between $65 and $70 per barrel in the second half of 2025, a 15% decrease from 2024 [7]. - Despite short-term pressures, some analysts remain optimistic about the potential for oil companies to transition into renewable energy and carbon capture sectors, which could provide new growth opportunities [7].

期货研究报告|聚烯烃周报 2025-04-27 埃克森美孚投产，新装置持续放量 研究院 化工组 研究员 梁宗泰 020-83901031 liangzongtai@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 陈莉 020-83901135 cl@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0233775 投资咨询号：Z0000421 联系人 杨露露 0755-82790795 yanglulu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03128371 吴硕琮 020-83901158 wushuocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03119179 刘启展 020-83901049 liuqizhan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03140168 投资咨询业务资格： 下游需求方面，聚烯烃下游开工率维持下行，地膜季节性旺季结束，五一假期前，终端 工厂订单维持刚需采购为主。 ■ 策略 证监许可【2011】1289 号 策略摘要 惠州埃克森美孚一期 50 LLDPE 装置、48 万吨/年 PP 装置与 47.5 万吨/年 PP 装置成功投 产，预计未来新装置持续放量，PE 供应维持偏高，而 ...

Core Viewpoint - ExxonMobil sees carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) as a significant opportunity for profitability while contributing to environmental sustainability, estimating the CCS market could reach $4 trillion by 2050 [1] Group 1: Business Developments - ExxonMobil is positioning itself as a leader in the CCS market, recently signing a deal with Calpine to transport and store up to 2 million tons of carbon dioxide annually from its Bayton Energy Center [3] - The agreement with Calpine is part of a broader strategy to provide low-carbon electricity and steam to industrial facilities, producing approximately 500 megawatts of electricity, enough for 500,000 homes [3] - Exxon has now signed six contracts for carbon dioxide transportation and sequestration, totaling 16 million tons per year, indicating growing confidence from clients across various sectors [5] Group 2: Revenue Potential - The company aims to secure 30 million tons of transportation and storage contracts by 2030, with current contracts already exceeding halfway to this goal [7] - ExxonMobil anticipates that its CCS business could generate over $10 billion in annual contractual revenue within the next five to ten years, providing stable earnings compared to its traditional oil and gas operations [9] - The company plans to invest $30 billion by 2030 in reducing emissions and providing carbon reduction solutions, estimating these initiatives could yield $2 billion in earnings by 2030 [8] Group 3: Strategic Acquisitions - In 2023, Exxon acquired Denbury Resources for nearly $5 billion, primarily for its extensive carbon dioxide pipeline system, enhancing its CCS capabilities [6] - The integration of Calpine's facility into Exxon's existing carbon dioxide pipeline system, the largest globally, will facilitate the transportation of greenhouse gases to sequestration sites along the U.S. Gulf Coast [4] Group 4: Long-term Investment Appeal - The CCS business is viewed as a long-term growth driver for ExxonMobil, potentially extending the use of fossil fuels while stabilizing earnings volatility [10] - The recent contract with Calpine reinforces the attractiveness of Exxon's CCS business as a lucrative venture, enhancing its long-term investment appeal [10]

Group 1 - The Daily Drilling Report is an investment group focused on providing analysis for the oil and gas industry, featuring a model portfolio that encompasses all segments of upstream oilfield activity with weekly updates [1] - The group offers investment ideas for both U.S. and international energy companies, covering a range from shale to deepwater drillers [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to identify catalysts within the oil and gas sector [1] Group 2 - Fluidsdoc is an international oil industry veteran with 40 years of experience, having worked across six continents and over twenty countries, specializing in the upstream oilpatch [2]

Investors interested in stocks from the Oil and Gas - Integrated - International sector have probably already heard of OMV AG (OMVKY) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) . But which of these two stocks offers value investors a better bang for their buck right now? We'll need to take a closer look.Everyone has their own methods for finding great value opportunities, but our model includes pairing an impressive grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system with a strong Zacks Rank. The Zacks Rank is a proven strat ...

Core Viewpoint - Dividend stocks trading at low valuations can provide significant long-term upside potential and higher-than-average yields, making them attractive investment opportunities Group 1: Target (TGT) - Target has experienced a significant decline, losing 46% of its value over the past year due to concerns about the economy and discretionary spending [3] - Despite the downturn, Target's business remains stable with a payout ratio of 50%, allowing for dividend safety even amid profit declines [4] - The stock is currently trading at a low P/E ratio of less than 11, compared to the S&P 500 average of 21, and offers a dividend yield of 4.8% [4][5] Group 2: ExxonMobil (XOM) - ExxonMobil's stock has declined by 12% over the past year, influenced by falling oil prices, but it remains an attractively priced dividend stock with a P/E ratio of less than 14 [6] - The company has a strong history of dividend payments, having increased its annual dividend for 42 consecutive years, with a current yield of 3.7% [7] - Earnings for ExxonMobil were down by over $2 billion in 2024, representing a decline of over 6%, indicating potential challenges ahead if oil prices do not recover [7] Group 3: Village Super Market (VLGEA) - Village Super Market offers a dividend yield of 2.9%, higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.5%, and trades at a low P/E multiple of just 9 [9] - The company operates 34 supermarkets on the East Coast, and its sales have risen by 4% to approximately $1.2 billion, with net income growing by 14% to $29.7 million over the past two quarters [10] - Despite being a smaller player in the grocery sector, Village Super Market's strong financials and low valuation make it a compelling dividend stock to consider [10]

Have you been searching for a stock that might be well-positioned to maintain its earnings-beat streak in its upcoming report? It is worth considering Exxon Mobil (XOM) , which belongs to the Zacks Oil and Gas - Integrated - International industry.This oil and natural gas company has an established record of topping earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The company boasts an average surprise for the past two quarters of 4.13%.For the last reported quarter, Exxon came out w ...