Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong rebound in the Chinese stock market in 2025, with the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassing 100 trillion RMB and daily trading volume frequently exceeding 3 trillion RMB, leading to a historical high annual trading volume of 400 trillion RMB [4][5]. Core Insights - The attractiveness of Chinese assets is expected to further increase in 2026, supported by innovation capabilities, favorable policies, ample liquidity, and potential capital inflows from domestic and international institutional investors [5][6]. - Foreign investment interest in the Chinese stock market has significantly increased, with the number of overseas investors from Europe and the US rising by over 30% compared to last year [7]. - The overall earnings growth for A-shares in 2026 is projected to be around 8%, with a breakdown of 5% revenue growth, 4% valuation uplift, and 1% from buyback expectations [10][18]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, the Chinese stock market showed a strong performance, with A-shares' total market value exceeding 100 trillion RMB and daily trading volumes reaching historical highs [4][5]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the attractiveness of Chinese assets will continue to rise in 2026, driven by strong innovation, supportive policies, and liquidity [5][6]. Foreign Investment - There is a notable increase in foreign interest in the Chinese stock market, with foreign holdings rising from a low of 2.6% at the end of 2023 to 1.3% currently [7]. Earnings Growth - The expected earnings growth for A-shares in 2026 is around 8%, with contributions from revenue growth, valuation uplift, and profit margin improvements [10][18]. Sector Preferences - Preferred sectors include AI, internet, brokerage, photovoltaic, and overseas companies, with a focus on the growth potential in these areas [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Shenzhen Kedali Industry and raises the price target to Rmb268.00 from Rmb218.00, indicating a potential upside of over 70% [1][6]. Core Insights - Shenzhen Kedali, as China's largest battery structural parts producer with approximately 50% market share, is expected to benefit significantly from strong downstream battery demand, forecasting a revenue CAGR of 34.5% from 2025 to 2027 [1][9]. - The company is actively expanding its overseas business, which is anticipated to become a key growth driver starting in 2027, with overseas revenue contribution expected to rise to 16% by 2027 from 9% in 2025 [3][28]. - The report highlights that Kedali's net profit is projected to grow at a CAGR of 38.0% from 2025 to 2027, with 2026 and 2027 net profit estimates being 11% and 27% above consensus, respectively [1][9]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - Kedali's revenue is forecasted to grow by 37.9% and 31.2% year-over-year in 2026 and 2027, respectively, significantly outpacing the average 17% growth for auto supply chain companies [2][9]. - The company has been operating at full capacity since Q4 2025 and plans to increase its production capacity by 30% in 2026 [2][9]. Overseas Expansion - The overseas business is expected to ramp up significantly from 2027, with plants in Hungary and Germany servicing orders from CATL's European plants [3][28]. - Kedali is currently the exclusive structural parts supplier to CATL overseas, which is projected to capture over 60% market share in Europe by 2027 [3][28]. Financial Projections - The report raises the 2026-30 profit forecasts by 12-38% due to higher revenue growth potential, with the price target implying a 29.6x PE for 2026, which is justified by strong demand and overseas expansion [4][47]. - Revenue projections for Kedali are revised upwards, with 2026 revenue now estimated at Rmb21,023 million, reflecting a 16% increase from previous estimates [32][34]. Market Positioning - Kedali's current PE is below its five-year average and lower than the average of A-share auto supply chain companies, indicating significant valuation upside potential [10][47]. - The report suggests that the market may be underestimating Kedali's earnings growth potential due to its strong ties with mainstream battery manufacturers and robust downstream demand [35][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on global equities, expecting a rise of around 15% by the end of 2026, driven by strong performance in sectors such as technology, healthcare, and utilities [125][126]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of AI and innovation to drive market growth, suggesting that these trends could help economies achieve "escape velocity" from traditional economic constraints [5][27]. - It highlights the importance of capital expenditure (capex) in AI, projecting a cumulative USD 4.7 trillion in global AI capex between 2026 and 2030, with USD 571 billion expected in 2026 [58][70]. - The longevity market is anticipated to grow significantly, with annual revenues projected to reach USD 8 trillion by 2030, driven by advancements in healthcare and technology [90][91]. Summary by Sections Growth - AI-linked innovation is identified as a key driver of market performance, with IT and communication services stocks accounting for 36% of the MSCI AC World index [48][49]. - The report projects that AI can automate a third of tasks, potentially generating around USD 2 trillion in annual revenues from end-users [60][62]. Economic Backdrop - The economic outlook for 2026 is supportive, with expected real GDP growth of close to 2% in the US and over 1% in the Eurozone, driven by fiscal stimulus and improving consumer confidence [102][106]. - In Asia, growth is expected to remain robust at just under 5%, with China focusing on technology innovation and industrial upgrades [109][110]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends allocating up to 30% of equity portfolios to structural growth ideas, particularly in AI, power and resources, and longevity sectors [70][96]. - Commodities are highlighted as attractive investments due to supply constraints and rising demand, with copper prices expected to exceed USD 13,000 per metric ton in 2026 [85][88]. Sector Focus - The US healthcare sector is expected to benefit from improved policy clarity and growing markets, particularly in obesity and oncology [128][129]. - Utilities are favored due to AI-driven power demand and ongoing infrastructure investments, with significant earnings growth anticipated [129][130]. Currency and Diversification - The report suggests favoring the euro and Australian dollar over the US dollar, anticipating that US rate cuts may weigh on the greenback [45][46]. - A diversified investment approach is recommended, including alternatives like hedge funds and private markets to mitigate risks [45][46].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a 12-month target price of Rmb 587.50, up from the previous target of Rmb 545.50 [5]. Core Insights - The demand outlook for the company is strong, with significant underestimation in its valuation. The company has been added to UBS's Key Call Buy list [1]. - Earnings forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised by 0.3% and 6.7% respectively, reflecting an increase in domestic wafer fabrication equipment (WFE) spending [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from advancements in 3D NAND applications and increased visibility in domestic advanced logic chip demand [1][2]. Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast Adjustments - The company's WFE revenue estimates for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 1% and 8%, corresponding to Rmb 400 million and Rmb 4.5 billion respectively [2]. - The revenue growth is anticipated to be confirmed mostly in 2027 due to the typical 12-month order-to-revenue recognition cycle [2]. Growth Outlook Post-2027 - Concerns regarding the sustainability of domestic WFE demand post-2027 are addressed, indicating that capacity expansion for advanced logic and storage wafer fabs in China may remain strong from 2026 to 2030 [3]. - The projected CAGR for the company's revenue and earnings from 2027 to 2029 is estimated at 17% and 20% respectively [3]. Valuation - The target price has been adjusted to Rmb 587.50 based on a P/BV multiple increase from 8.6x to 9.3x, reflecting improved mid-term ROE [4][14]. - The new target price implies a PE of 42x for 2026E and 31x for 2027E, compared to a projected earnings CAGR of 30% from 2026 to 2028 [4][14]. Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 39.43 billion in 2025E to Rmb 66.88 billion in 2027E, with a significant increase in net profit from Rmb 6.75 billion to Rmb 13.73 billion during the same period [7][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from Rmb 9.32 in 2025E to Rmb 18.95 in 2027E, reflecting a growth of 48.9% [7][16].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a neutral rating to Huahong Semiconductor with a target price of HK$80.00 [4][5]. Core Insights - Huahong Semiconductor has initiated price increases for its 12-inch foundry services since Q2 2025, driven by full capacity utilization, with plans for further significant price hikes in 2026 [1]. - The company aims to reduce production cash costs by 5-10% by 2026, following cost-cutting measures implemented under the new president [1]. - The gross margin for the 12-inch foundry business turned positive in Q1 2025 and improved to 10% in Q3, with a target to reach 15% despite high depreciation costs [1]. - The company is optimizing its revenue structure by focusing on microcontroller units (MCUs) and smart card chips, benefiting from the growing demand for data center power chips [2]. - Huahong's first 12-inch fab has a current monthly capacity of 100,000 wafers, with plans for additional fabs to enhance production capabilities [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to decline from US$2,475 million in 2022 to US$2,004 million in 2024, before rebounding to US$3,033 million in 2026 [7]. - The net profit is expected to increase from US$75 million in 2025 to US$147 million in 2026, reflecting a recovery in profitability [7]. - The estimated gross margin for 2026 is forecasted at 13.6%, slightly above the 12.0% expected for 2025 [1]. Market Context - Huahong Semiconductor is the second-largest foundry in mainland China, primarily serving the domestic market, which is expected to contribute 82% of its revenue in 2024 [10]. - The company is also leveraging the trend of localization by serving European IDM clients like STMicroelectronics and Infineon [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the technology sector, particularly in AI and compute, with expectations for strong growth into 2026 [4][19]. Core Insights - AI order books remain robust, with companies like Google and Anthropic reporting significant sales growth, indicating a strong demand for AI-related products [4][6]. - Companies are managing memory constraints effectively, with rising prices prompting adjustments in product specifications and pricing strategies [4][6]. - TSMC anticipates a 45% CAGR in AI accelerator revenue from 2024 to 2029, reflecting strong demand from fabless customers and hyperscalers [19]. Summary by Sections AI and Compute - Companies reaffirmed strong AI order books, with Anthropic scaling sales from US$1 billion to US$7 billion over the past year [4]. - NVIDIA expects US$500 billion in sales through 2026, driven by AI demand and partnerships with companies like Anthropic [4][17]. - Anthropic's B2B-first strategy is yielding significant revenue growth, with a focus on enterprise applications [6][7]. Equipment and Packaging - Applied Materials sees leading-edge logic as the strongest driver for growth, with a projected increase in demand for advanced packaging [8]. - Amkor is optimistic about AI growth from a low base, with expectations for recovery in various sectors including automotive and industrial [6][8]. Hardware and Mobile - Dell reported strong demand for AI servers, with a backlog of US$18.4 billion and expectations for continued growth in 2026 [10]. - Qualcomm anticipates a slowdown in premiumization trends but remains optimistic about future upgrades with new technology [4][10]. Power and Infrastructure - Infineon is targeting US$1.5 billion in AI revenue for FY2025, up from US$700 million, indicating a significant growth opportunity in the AI sector [12][13]. - Lightmatter is advancing optical interconnect solutions, which could significantly enhance compute efficiency [15][12]. Market Dynamics - The semiconductor market is expected to see a mid-30% CAGR in leading-edge logic and DRAM/ HBM wafers, driven by AI and data center demand [8]. - TSMC's proactive capex strategy aims to support the anticipated growth in Cloud AI, with investments projected to reach US$50 billion in 2026 [19].

Investment Ratings - NVIDIA (NVDA): Buy [45] - Applied Materials (AMAT): Buy (CBE) [45] - Microchip Technology (MCHP): Buy [45] - Lam Research (LRCX): Buy [45] - Texas Instruments (TXN): Buy [45] - SiTime (SITM): Buy [45] - Teradyne (TER): Buy [45] - GlobalFoundries (GFS): Neutral [45] - Onsemi (ON): Neutral (CBE) [45] - Qualcomm (QCOM): Neutral [45] - Skyworks Solutions (SWKS): Neutral [45] - Western Digital (WDC): Neutral [45] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong demand, particularly in AI and data center applications, with companies like NVIDIA and Analog Devices (ADI) highlighting robust growth prospects [2][6][24] - NVIDIA's partnerships, especially with Anthropic, are expected to significantly enhance its market position, with a backlog of $500 billion projected through 2026 [2][21] - Applied Materials is gaining improved visibility on customer capacity additions, indicating a positive outlook for the semiconductor equipment market [3][22] - Microchip Technology reported strong bookings, reflecting broad-based demand across its product lines [4] - Analog Devices is seeing a recovery across all end markets, particularly in AI and automotive sectors, with expectations to outpace market growth [6][24] - Lam Research anticipates a $40 billion market for NAND upgrades, driven by significant bit growth [25] - Texas Instruments is optimistic about long-term growth in data centers and embedded systems, despite short-term visibility challenges [11][26] - GlobalFoundries is benefiting from a recovering consumer environment and strong data center demand, while navigating geopolitical challenges [27] - Western Digital is experiencing strong demand in both traditional and AI data centers, with a focus on improving storage capacities [28] Summary by Company NVIDIA (NVDA) - Strong demand pipeline with a backlog of $500 billion through 2026 [2] - New partnerships, particularly with Anthropic, are expected to drive significant growth [2][21] Applied Materials (AMAT) - Improved visibility on customer capacity additions, indicating a positive market outlook [3][22] - Anticipates strong growth in leading-edge technology and DRAM markets [22] Microchip Technology (MCHP) - Positive pre-announcement of bookings strength, indicating broad-based demand [4] Analog Devices (ADI) - Broad-based recovery across end markets, particularly in AI and automotive [6][24] - Expected to achieve $1 billion in annualized revenue synergies from MXIM by 2026 [6] Lam Research (LRCX) - Anticipates a $40 billion market for NAND upgrades based on significant bit growth [25] Texas Instruments (TXN) - Long-term bullish outlook driven by data center and embedded systems [11][26] GlobalFoundries (GFS) - Strong share in a recovering consumer environment and data center demand [27] Western Digital (WDC) - Strong demand in AI data centers, with a focus on improving storage capacities [28]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the semiconductor industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant AI super cycle, with companies like AMD expecting substantial growth in AI workloads and custom ASICs capturing 20-25% of the total addressable market [2][15] - KLAC anticipates growth in its TSMC business and higher investment from INTC, indicating a positive outlook for memory and advanced packaging sectors [3][16] - CoreWeave reports an "insatiable" demand for compute resources, highlighting the shift in AI workloads from training to more compute-intensive inferencing [17] - ARM is making strides in data center CPU development, with expectations of increased revenue opportunities through its CSS model [5][18] - MCHP has raised guidance due to strong order flow and backlog, indicating robust demand across multiple sectors [6][19] - INTC is cautious about supply constraints peaking in 1Q26, while also seeing increased demand driven by AI applications [9][20] Summary by Company AMD - AMD is in a ten-year AI super cycle, expecting significant capital deployment from large companies [2] - The company anticipates multiple GW-scale customers beyond OpenAI, indicating strong market confidence [15] KLAC - KLAC expects low to mid-single-digit growth in C1H:26 due to memory pull-ins and reassured investors about N2 monetization continuing into C2026 [3][16] CoreWeave - CoreWeave's backlog is approximately 55 billion, indicating a strong demand for AI compute resources [17] ARM - ARM is progressing on a data center CPU chip for a major customer and sees significant revenue potential through its CSS model [5][18] MCHP - MCHP reported phenomenal orders in November and expects CQ1 to be significantly above normal seasonal levels [6][19] INTC - INTC reiterated that supply constraints are expected to peak in 1Q26, with a focus on AI-driven demand for CPUs [9][20] PI - PI sees growth from deeper apparel adoption and logistics deployments, with a focus on improving gross margins [10][21] AMBQ - AMBQ's customer base is stable, with expectations for diversified growth in 2027 [11][22] ENTG - ENTG is focused on improving gross margins and may consider consolidating capacity to enhance sentiment [12] SMTC - SMTC is optimistic about its CopperEdge ramp and the adoption of LPO technology among hyperscalers [13][23] Anthropic - Anthropic is constrained by compute capacity, indicating strong demand for AI resources [14] Impinj - Impinj is focused on expanding its RAIN market presence, with significant growth opportunities in logistics and food sectors [21] Semtech - Semtech is preparing for a ramp in its ACC technology to support major hyperscaler deployments [23]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the semiconductor industry or specific companies within it [12]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a significant increase in demand, particularly in data centers focused on AI, with project requests growing 10-100 times over the past year [2][6]. - Seagate Technology (STX) has a positive outlook on demand, with order visibility extending through at least the end of 2026, and emphasizes that hard disk drives (HDD) will not be the primary bottleneck in data center construction as long as the industry maintains a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in bit shipments [4][7]. - The quantum computing sector faces substantial engineering challenges, with commercialization expected to be 4-5 years away, and differing opinions on the integration of classical computing with quantum technologies [3]. Summary by Sections Data Center Insights - T5 Data Centers reported a notable increase in project requests, with a focus on power availability and proximity to natural gas pipelines, particularly in Texas [2][6]. - The demand for power supply for data centers is strong, with customers looking to secure availability for 2027 [6]. Seagate Technology (STX) Insights - STX management indicated that they do not plan to increase unit capacity unless HDD becomes the tightest constraint, and they are currently focused on improving drive density [4][7]. - The company has qualified five public cloud customers for HAMR technology, with expectations for significant volume growth in the coming years [7]. Quantum Computing Insights - The quantum panel highlighted that while there is consensus on the significant engineering challenges, financing remains a bottleneck for progress [3]. - Participants noted that the path to commercialization and early applications remains unclear, with expectations for changes in post-quantum security as technology matures [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a 12-month rating of Neutral to Fiserv Inc (FISV) with a price target of US$75.00, while the current price is US$62.69 [5]. Core Insights - Fiserv is consolidating its 16 core offerings into 5 platforms, allowing clients to migrate at their own pace, with significant progress already made [2]. - Management is adjusting pricing strategies in digital payments and SMB segments to be more competitive, particularly in the Clover product line [3]. - The company anticipates a decline in total company margins by approximately 200 basis points for the full year, with specific segments experiencing varying levels of margin compression [8]. Summary by Sections Core Banking Consolidation - Fiserv is reducing its core offerings from 16 to 5 platforms, with a focus on migrating clients at their own pace. The company serves around 3,500 US financial institutions within an addressable market of approximately 8,000 [2]. Pricing Decisions - Management plans to adopt more competitive pricing in digital payments, particularly for debit networks, while maintaining premium pricing for Clover products. Some previously implemented fees have been eliminated based on partner feedback [3]. Non-Clover SMB Insights - The non-Clover SMB segment has seen revenue declines primarily due to issues in Argentina, but growth is expected to stabilize moving forward. Management is cautious about converting non-Clover clients to Clover, ensuring a clear value proposition [7]. Margin Expectations - Fiserv expects total company margins to decrease by about 200 basis points, with Q4 margins projected to decline by 750-800 basis points. Merchant Solutions is facing significant margin compression due to lower expected high-margin revenue [8]. Capital Allocation and Free Cash Flow - The company anticipates maintaining a free cash flow conversion percentage similar to historical levels, with capital expenditures expected to be around US$1.8 billion in 2025, representing about 9% of revenue [9]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from US$16.613 billion in 2022 to US$22.201 billion by 2029, with net earnings expected to fluctuate around US$4.205 billion in 2022 to US$4.396 billion by 2029 [4][15]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights various valuation metrics, including a P/E ratio of 15.4 in 2022, expected to decrease to 6.0 by 2029, indicating a potential undervaluation of the stock [16]. Additional Insights - Fiserv is expanding into new verticals, such as healthcare, and enhancing its distribution channels through increased sales personnel and partnerships with banks and ISOs [10][12].