Core Viewpoint - The performance of the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) is heavily influenced by Tencent's significant weight in the fund and the ongoing U.S.-China tariff cycle, which will be critical in determining MCHI's trajectory through 2026 [1][9]. Group 1: MCHI Performance Overview - MCHI is down 8.74% year-to-date, reversing much of the gains from a strong rally in 2025 that had raised investor hopes for a recovery in Chinese equities [2]. - Over the past month, MCHI has declined by 9.64%, which is comparable to the S&P 500's 8.52% drop, but driven by different factors including geopolitical risks specific to China [3]. Group 2: Tariff Cycle Impact - U.S.-China trade policy is the primary macroeconomic factor affecting MCHI, with the announcement of increased tariffs in early 2025 leading to a bearish sentiment for the fund [4]. - The key indicator to monitor is not just the tariff rates but the status of trade negotiations, as any signs of resumed talks have historically led to sharp recoveries in Chinese equity ETFs [5]. Group 3: Tencent's Role - Tencent constitutes 16.35% of MCHI's portfolio, with the top two holdings making up approximately 26.89% of the fund's assets, indicating a high concentration risk [7]. - The performance of MCHI is closely tied to Tencent's quarterly earnings and any changes in its MSCI index weight, which can significantly influence the fund's overall performance [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The trajectory of U.S.-China trade negotiations will set the performance boundaries for MCHI over the next year, with particular attention needed on Tencent's earnings and any MSCI rebalancing that could affect its weight in the fund [9].

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 騰訊控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2026年3月31日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00700 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 80700 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 騰訊控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2026年3月30日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00700 | 說明 | | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 80700 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變 ...

中国 证券研究 2026 年 3 月 24 日 腾讯控股 增持 投资者会议纪要：AI 变现逻辑优化，但该股仍需要一个 拐点 我们从公司业绩后投资者会议中得出的结论是中期投资理据逐步向好，但我 们认为这对近期股价的助益较为有限。会议阐述了公司 AI 投资逻辑、已经 显现的变现路径，以及支撑此项投入的资本配置框架。我们认为相比于 3 个 月期交易，这在 12 个月维度上更具意义。短期内，该股仍可能受以下因素 驱动：盈利预测下调、回购预期下调、以及在新的情绪拐点出现前，市场相 较于长期 AI 选择权更看重短期每股收益能见度。就 3 个月期前景而言，我 们认为 4 月基础模型"混元"的推出或将决定公司 AI 能力叙事，结果非成即 败（"腾讯的 Gemini 3 时刻"或是"腾讯不具备顶级 AI 能力"）。此外，基于 《王者荣耀》IP 的开放世界游戏《王者荣耀世界》将于 4 月发布。鉴于投资 者风险偏好较低且目前正关注近期盈利预测调整，这或将是又一潜在催化剂 。 不过，从长远来看，此次会议提升了该股叙事从 "AI 成本负担不断增加"转 向"具有多个变现界面的自有资金 AI 投资"的预期，鉴于最近数月公司 AI 定 位大 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 騰訊控股有限公司 呈交日期： 2026年3月27日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | | 00700 | 說明 | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | | 80700 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 780 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 54.33% from the last closing price [4][56]. Core Insights - The company has exceeded market expectations for revenue in Q4 2025, driven by the commercialization of AI products, with Q4 revenue reaching 194.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 13% [1][7]. - The company’s annual revenue for 2025 was 751.8 billion RMB, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth, while net profit for Q4 was 58.3 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year [1][7]. - Significant investments in AI, exceeding 18 billion RMB, have been made, marking a historical high for AI-related expenditures [1][11]. Revenue Breakdown - **Gaming Revenue**: In Q4 2025, domestic gaming revenue was 38.2 billion RMB, a 15% increase year-on-year, with international gaming revenue reaching 21.1 billion RMB, up 32% year-on-year. The total gaming revenue for 2025 was 241.6 billion RMB, a 22% increase [2][8]. - **Marketing Services**: Q4 marketing services revenue was 41.1 billion RMB, up 17% year-on-year, driven by enhanced user engagement and AI technology upgrades [3][9]. The total marketing services revenue for 2025 was 145 billion RMB, reflecting a 19% increase [3][9]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Q4 revenue in this segment was 60.8 billion RMB, an 8% increase year-on-year, with the total for 2025 reaching 229.4 billion RMB, also up 8% [10][30]. Profitability Metrics - The overall gross margin for Q4 2025 was 56%, a 3% increase year-on-year, with specific segments showing improved margins: value-added services at 60%, marketing services at 60%, and financial technology at 51% [10][30]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on building an AI ecosystem, leveraging its existing user base and data to enhance its competitive edge in various sectors, including gaming, marketing, and financial services [22][35]. - The management has outlined a six-dimensional framework to assess the sustainability of its AI moat, emphasizing the importance of network effects, proprietary data, regulatory barriers, and unique IP content [24][26]. Future Outlook - The company plans to significantly increase its AI investments in 2026, with expectations of doubling its AI-related expenditures, which will support its core business growth [11][40]. - The strategic deployment of AI across multiple business lines is expected to enhance operational efficiency and user engagement, positioning the company favorably in the competitive landscape [35][52].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 780, indicating a potential upside of 54.33% from the last closing price [5][57]. Core Insights - The company has exceeded market expectations for revenue in Q4 2025 and the full year, driven by the commercialization of AI products, with significant contributions from gaming, advertising, and cloud services [2][3][4]. - The company is focusing on building an ecosystem around AI, with substantial investments in AI capabilities, which are expected to enhance core business growth [5][27][39]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 1,944 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.8%. The total revenue for the year reached RMB 7,518 billion, up 8% year-on-year [2][8]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q4 2025 was RMB 583 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, while the annual net profit was RMB 2,248 billion, up 16% [2][8]. - The Non-IFRS net profit for Q4 2025 was RMB 647 billion, reflecting a 17% year-on-year growth, with the annual figure at RMB 2,596 billion, also up 17% [2][8]. Business Segment Performance - **Gaming**: Q4 2025 domestic gaming revenue was RMB 382 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year, driven by new titles. International gaming revenue reached RMB 211 billion, a 32% increase year-on-year, with total gaming revenue for the year at RMB 2,416 billion, up 22% [3][9]. - **Marketing Services**: Revenue for Q4 2025 was RMB 411 billion, a 17% increase year-on-year, benefiting from AI-driven advertising enhancements. The annual marketing services revenue was RMB 1,450 billion, up 19% [4][10]. - **Financial Technology and Enterprise Services**: Q4 revenue was RMB 608 billion, an 8% increase year-on-year, with the annual total at RMB 2,294 billion, also up 8% [4][11]. Investment and Strategic Focus - The company has significantly increased its capital expenditure to RMB 792 billion in 2025, with over RMB 180 billion allocated to AI investments, marking a historical high [2][12]. - The management has outlined a multi-model strategy to leverage AI across various consumer applications and existing businesses, expecting sustained growth in core operations [5][27][39]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company maintains a strong competitive edge through its unique data assets, regulatory barriers, and proprietary content, which are expected to enhance its AI capabilities and market position [28][30][35]. - The AI strategy is supported by a robust ecosystem, leveraging the extensive user base of WeChat and other platforms to drive AI product integration and distribution [39][52].

Market Overview - The US stock market opened lower with the Nasdaq down 1.08%, the Dow Jones down 0.18%, and the S&P 500 down 0.55% [1] - As of the latest update, the Dow Jones has turned positive with a gain of 0.11%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 0.56% and 0.32% respectively [1] - A total of 3,002 stocks rose while 2,089 stocks fell [1] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor storage sector experienced a broad decline, with SanDisk down 6.6%, Western Digital, Micron Technology, and Seagate Technology all falling over 4% [1][2] Notable Stock Movements - Marathon Digital Holdings saw a significant increase of over 11% after announcing a $1 billion buyback of convertible senior notes and the sale of 15,133 bitcoins [2] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Meta Platforms down 3.97%, Intel down 3.08%, and Nvidia down 1.93%, while Apple rose by 1.39% [4][5] Chinese Stocks - Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with Xiaoma Zhixing down over 15%, XPeng Motors down 5.41%, and Baidu down 2.79% [7][8] Precious Metals - Both gold and silver prices fell, with gold dropping over 1.23% to $4,449 per ounce and silver decreasing by nearly 3% to $69 per ounce [12][13] Oil Prices - International oil prices continued to rise, with WTI crude oil increasing by 3.96% and Brent crude oil rising over 4%, surpassing $100 per barrel [15][16]

Summary of Tencent Holdings Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) - **Sector**: Internet & New Media - **Current Price**: HKD 508.00 (as of March 20, 2026) - **Market Cap**: USD 591.35 billion Key Points AI Investment Strategy - Tencent plans to significantly increase investments in AI products, aiming to exceed CNY 36 billion in 2026, which is over 4% of the projected revenue for FY26 of CNY 831 billion [1][2] - The company is shifting its AI cloud strategy to enhance external cloud revenue, projecting a growth acceleration to 20% in FY26 from 16% in FY25 [1][2] - Tencent aims to compete on cloud services and AI capabilities rather than pricing, addressing previous underperformance in cloud revenue compared to competitors like AliCloud and Bytedance [1] Core Business Performance - Online gaming and advertising remain strong, with forecasts of 13% growth in online gaming revenue for FY26, down from 22% last year, and an 18% increase in advertising revenue, consistent with FY25 [2] - Gross margin is expected to expand to 57% in FY26 from 56% in FY25, despite a projected decline in non-GAAP operating margin to 36.9% due to increased AI investments [2] Financial Projections - Non-GAAP net profit estimates have been reduced by 3% for FY26 and 1% for FY27, with an expected growth of 8% in net profit for both years [3] - Target price has been lowered to HKD 727 from HKD 775, implying a 43% upside from the current price [3][5] - The stock is currently trading at 15x FY26F P/E, compared to a target of 21x [3] Revenue and Profit Estimates - Revenue projections for FY26 have been slightly adjusted to CNY 829.23 billion from CNY 827.01 billion, with normalized net profit estimates revised to CNY 280.5 billion [4][18] - The company anticipates a gross profit of CNY 475.43 billion for FY26, with a gross margin of 57.3% [18] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include high market expectations, aggressive spending on WeChat Pay and overseas marketing, and competition from disruptive products [14][27] ESG Considerations - Tencent's operations are noted to be environmentally friendly, contributing positively to social ecosystems and maintaining good corporate governance practices [15] Upcoming Developments - The release of the Hunyuan 3.0 LLM in April is expected to act as a catalyst for stock performance [3] Additional Insights - Tencent's diverse service offerings include gaming, online advertising, fintech, and cloud services, with WeChat being a significant component of its ecosystem [12] - The valuation methodology includes a breakdown of core business valuations, with online gaming valued at USD 283 billion and advertising at USD 235 billion [13][26] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from Tencent Holdings' recent conference call, highlighting its strategic focus on AI, core business performance, financial projections, and associated risks.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Tencent with a target price of HKD 690 [1] Core Insights - Tencent's management elaborated on AI investment logic, visible monetization paths, and capital allocation framework supporting these investments, which is constructive for mid-term investment cases but expected to have limited short-term stock price impact due to earnings forecast downgrades and reduced buyback expectations [1] - The significant revenue uplift from AI is currently reflected in the advertising and gaming sectors, with future monetization expected to come more from cloud business as capacity expansion gradually releases [2] - Tencent's long-term AI opportunities lie within the WeChat ecosystem, leveraging AI to enhance task completion and deepen transaction behaviors, with monetization through payments, mini-program stores, e-commerce commissions, and related advertising [2] Summary by Sections - **AI Investment and Capital Allocation**: Tencent's AI spending last year was RMB 18 billion, with an expected framework of RMB 36 billion this year focused on new AI product-related expenditures rather than overall AI infrastructure costs [1] - **Revenue Generation from AI**: Current AI contributions are primarily seen in advertising and gaming, with future growth anticipated from cloud services and the WeChat ecosystem [2] - **Management's Perspective on AI**: AI is positioned as an enabler to enhance user workflows and transaction processes, indicating a strategic focus on long-term integration within existing business models [2]