Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil industry but indicates expectations for rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions [1][2]. Core Insights - Oil prices are expected to rise further following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with Brent crude potentially reaching the $80s per barrel [1]. - There is significant uncertainty regarding oil prices in the coming weeks, primarily dependent on Iranian retaliation and its impact on regional oil supply [2]. - The probability of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz is considered low, but it remains a critical focus due to its importance in global oil and LNG transit [3]. - Current oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain stable, with Iranian oil production at approximately 3.3 million barrels per day and exports at around 1.7 million barrels per day [4]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical Impact - US military actions against Iran are likely to increase oil prices due to heightened risk perceptions regarding supply disruptions in the region [1][2]. - Iranian retaliation could either escalate tensions or remain contained, influencing future oil price movements [2]. Market Dynamics - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while low probability, could lead to significant disruptions in global oil markets, potentially pushing prices above $120 per barrel [3]. - OPEC+ is expected to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, which may limit the upside risk for oil prices [4]. Current Production and Exports - Iranian oil production and exports have not been significantly affected by recent geopolitical events, maintaining steady levels [4].

From US Exceptionalism to Sell America and Back Again. What next? US Exceptionalism: Extreme value creation meets macro uncertainties ab 23 June 2025 Global Research UBS HOLT Macro Webinar UBS HOLT Macro Webinar 23 June 2025 ab 2 How to position (time to look at GEM again?) Equities Global Financial Michel Lerner, CFA Head of HOLT michel.lerner@ubs.com +44-20-7883 3649 This report has been prepared by UBS AG London Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantita ...

Joni Teves Precious Metals Strategist Tel: +65-6495-6851 Joni.teves@ubs.com This document has been prepared by UBS AG, Singapore Branch ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on SLIDE 25 UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should ...

China Weekly: May Mixed Growth, Softer Fiscal Condition; June Weaker Home Sales High frequency: weaker home sales in June, softer port activities 30-city property sales declined further to -9% YoY in the first 21 days of June from - 3% YoY in May. That in tier 1 cities slid to -4% YoY, tier 2 cities narrowed decline to - 12% YoY and tier 3 cities declined by -6% YoY. Port cargo throughput and container throughput growth both softened to -1% YoY and 2% YoY in the first 15 days (vs 4% YoY and 7% YoY in May). ...

ab Global Research owered by UBS Evidence Lab YES P 23 June 2025 Semiconductors UBS Evidence Lab inside: Semis Distributor Tracker - more positive indicators UBS Enhanced Semis Distributor Tracker #9 Data from the ninth edition of our UBS Enhanced Semis Distributor Tracker (> Access dataset) provides further evidence of reassuring pricing trends and that inventory in the channel continues to head towards healthier levels. Pricing was flat to up LSD% across all subcategories, likely due to mix and the pocket ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The economic data for May indicates mixed but robust growth, with retail sales increasing by 6.4% YoY, infrastructure investment at 9.3% YoY, and manufacturing FAI growth at 7.8% YoY, although property activity continues to decline [3][5][6] - The report anticipates additional policy support in H2 2025, including a potential 20-30 basis point cut in policy rates and fiscal stimulus of 0.5-1 percentage points of GDP [5][6] - GDP growth is expected to remain resilient at 4.5-5% YoY in Q2 2025, but may decelerate in H2 due to payback of rushed export orders and exhausted fiscal subsidies [6] Activity Indicators - Retail sales growth improved to 6.4% YoY in May from 5.1% YoY in April, driven by trade-in subsidies [109] - Infrastructure investment growth remained robust at 9.3% YoY, while overall fixed asset investment (FAI) growth moderated to 2.9% YoY in May [86][75] - Industrial production growth edged down to 5.8% YoY in May, supported by front-loading of export-related production [97] Property - Property sales growth declined by 3.3% YoY in May, with new starts improving slightly to -19.3% YoY [72] - The report expects property sales, new starts, and investment to decline by 5-10%, 10-15%, and 5-10% respectively in 2025 [72] Fixed Asset Investment - Overall FAI growth moderated from 3.6% YoY in April to 2.9% YoY in May, with infrastructure investment growth at 9.3% YoY [86][75] - Manufacturing investment growth edged down to 7.8% YoY, reflecting weak demand and profits in property-related sectors [86] Industrial Production - Industrial production growth softened from 6.1% YoY in April to 5.8% YoY in May, with value-added growth in communications and electrical equipment remaining robust [97] Consumption - Retail sales of household appliances and communication equipment rose significantly, with trade-in subsidies contributing to the growth [109] - The household savings rate remains above pre-COVID-19 levels, indicating cautious consumer spending [109] Inflation - Headline CPI remained weak at -0.1% YoY in May, with PPI declining further to -3.3% YoY [126] Money and Credit - Credit growth stabilized at 8.7% YoY, with new RMB loans totaling RMB 620 billion in May, weaker than market expectations [142] - The report anticipates continued accommodative monetary policy to support credit growth [154]

ab 23 June 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research Tesla, Inc. The Tesla Robotaxi Network opportunity Investor focus on robotaxi is high. With Tesla launching their first robotaxi service in Austin, investor focus on the autonomous ride-hailing opportunity is very high. As such, we take a look at the opportunity. Net, if all goes according to plan (technology, regulatory, building and scaling a network, etc.) the opportunity can be significant - potentially a 2.3mm vehicle fleet by 2040 generat ...

ab 20 June 2025 Global Research US Economics Presentation US Economic Outlook 2025-2027: What next? Economics Americas Jonathan Pingle Economist jonathan.pingle@ubs.com +1-212-713 2225 Alan Detmeister Economist alan.detmeister@ubs.com +1-212-713 1222 Sonia Meskin Economist sonia.meskin@ubs.com +1-212-713 1424 Abigail Watt Economist abigail.watt@ubs.com +44-20-7567 1062 Amanda Wilcox Economist amanda.wilcox@ubs.com +1-212-713-2000 Pierre Lafourcade Economist pierre.lafourcade@ubs.com +1-212-713 4543 This rep ...

Global Research ab 20 June 2025 First Read China Medtech EU's market access restrictions for Chinese firms came in better than market expectation What happened? On 20 June 2025, the European Commission published an announcement to restrict Chinese participation in medical devices procurement and also the details for implementation. These measures were made pursuant to an International Procurement Instrument (IPI) investigation launched in April 2024 and concluded in January 2025, which stated that there is ...

ab 20 June 2025 Global Research Global Inflation Strategy The Global Inflation Friday Optimistic on oil persistence, pessimistic on the economy There is nothing quite like a round of volatility in oil to shake up inflation linked markets. Trading betas aren't fit for big shocks, but neither are macro relationships. What you think about shock persistence and other feedback relationships matter just as much. And of course positioning may be revealed. What can we say? Interest Rates Global Giles Gale Strategis ...