Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold, indicating a long-term uptrend is intact with a price forecast increase for 2025E from $2900 to $3100, representing a 7% change [53]. Core Insights - Gold's recent rally to record highs was orderly and well anticipated, with expectations of continued consolidation in the near term, supported by strong buying interest during pullbacks [4][5]. - Gold has outperformed other asset classes year-to-date due to elevated macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff risks, acting as a safe-haven asset [5][15]. - The report highlights that gold remains under-owned, suggesting potential for increased allocations by investors [4]. Summary by Sections Gold Market Dynamics - Futures trading volumes and open interest have been declining as prices consolidate within a narrow range, with global ETFs increasing approximately 10 million ounces year-to-date, although inflows have recently stalled [10]. - Gold's spot premium over fair value remains at record highs, indicating a breakdown in macro correlations [13]. - Speculative net long positions in gold appear lean, with broader market positioning remaining low compared to previous periods of rising gold prices [18][20]. Demand and Supply Factors - Physical demand for gold is supported by investment interest, with net buying continuing albeit at a slower pace [25][33]. - The report notes a gradual slowdown in official sector buying, but new buyers in 2024 have helped offset slower purchases from others [28][29]. - Consumer demand for gold in India is expected to remain resilient, with outstanding gold loans growing [46]. Price Forecasts - UBS forecasts for gold prices show an upward trend, with projections for 2026E increasing from $2900 to $3500, a 21% change, and for 2027E from $2700 to $3250, a 20% change [53]. - The report also indicates upside risks to investment, particularly in China, where gold ETFs have seen significant inflows amid strong bullish sentiment [37]. White Metals Outlook - The report suggests that silver and platinum are well-positioned for catch-up trades, with market participants optimistic about platinum due to supply risks in South Africa and potential recovery in jewelry demand in China [55][57]. - Palladium is noted to be vulnerable to interim spikes due to persistent deficits and net shorts [57][85].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The economic data for May indicates mixed growth, with retail sales increasing by 6.4% YoY, while property activity continues to decline [2][3] - Home sales in June showed a further decline of 9% YoY in 30 cities, with tier 1 cities down 4% YoY and tier 2 cities down 12% YoY [1][11] - Port activities have softened, with cargo throughput declining by 1% YoY in early June [1][15] - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) improved by 8% WoW, while the Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) declined by 10% WoW [1][9] - Auto retail sales growth picked up to 20% YoY in the first 15 days of June, up from 13% YoY in May [1][8] Economic Performance - General fiscal revenue growth softened to 0.1% YoY in May, while fiscal expenditure growth moderated to 2.6% YoY [3][25] - Local land sale revenue decreased significantly by 14.6% YoY in May, reflecting ongoing weakness in the land market [3][26] - Infrastructure investment remained resilient at 9.3% YoY, while manufacturing fixed asset investment (FAI) growth edged down to 7.8% YoY [2][23] Policy Developments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced new measures to open up the financial market, including establishing a digital RMB international operation center and supporting Shanghai's position as an international financial center [4] Future Outlook - Expectations for Q2 growth remain robust at 4.5-5% YoY, driven by front-loading of exports and policy stimulus [6] - Anticipated additional fiscal stimulus of 0.5-1ppt of GDP is expected to support growth in the latter half of 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, highlighting reassuring pricing trends and improving inventory levels [2][3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor market is experiencing a continued digestion of MCU inventory, with a 5% month-over-month decline and a 24% decrease compared to the previous month [3][4]. - Pricing across all product categories has remained stable, with an average increase of 1% month-over-month and 13% year-over-year [3][8]. - The report emphasizes the positive trends in pricing and inventory, particularly for companies like TI, Renesas, and Infineon, while also noting improvements for STM and other industrial MCU names [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Inventory Trends - MCU inventory has decreased by 5% month-over-month, following a 4% decline the previous month, indicating a healthy destocking process [3][4]. - Other categories such as Sensors and Diodes also saw inventory reductions of 5% and 4% respectively, while overall inventory trends are generally stable [3][4]. Pricing Trends - Pricing for MCUs remained flat month-over-month and year-over-year, while transistors saw a 2% increase month-over-month and a 17% increase year-over-year [4][14]. - Capacitors, Diodes, and Sensors experienced price increases of 2-3%, contributing to an overall stable pricing environment [4][14]. Company Observations - Infineon and STM showed varied pricing trends, with Infineon down 4% and STM up 4% in June compared to May, reflecting a mix-driven pricing environment [5][8]. - The report indicates that inventory levels are stable, with significant destocking in MCUs, previously driven by MCHP and now also by STM [5][11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The economic data for May indicates mixed but robust growth, with retail sales increasing by 6.4% YoY, infrastructure investment at 9.3% YoY, and manufacturing FAI growth at 7.8% YoY, although property activity continues to decline [3][5][6] - The report anticipates additional policy support in H2 2025, including a potential 20-30 basis point cut in policy rates and fiscal stimulus of 0.5-1 percentage points of GDP [5][6] - GDP growth is expected to remain resilient at 4.5-5% YoY in Q2 2025, but may decelerate in H2 due to payback of rushed export orders and exhausted fiscal subsidies [6] Activity Indicators - Retail sales growth improved to 6.4% YoY in May from 5.1% YoY in April, driven by trade-in subsidies [109] - Infrastructure investment growth remained robust at 9.3% YoY, while overall fixed asset investment (FAI) growth moderated to 2.9% YoY in May [86][75] - Industrial production growth edged down to 5.8% YoY in May, supported by front-loading of export-related production [97] Property - Property sales growth declined by 3.3% YoY in May, with new starts improving slightly to -19.3% YoY [72] - The report expects property sales, new starts, and investment to decline by 5-10%, 10-15%, and 5-10% respectively in 2025 [72] Fixed Asset Investment - Overall FAI growth moderated from 3.6% YoY in April to 2.9% YoY in May, with infrastructure investment growth at 9.3% YoY [86][75] - Manufacturing investment growth edged down to 7.8% YoY, reflecting weak demand and profits in property-related sectors [86] Industrial Production - Industrial production growth softened from 6.1% YoY in April to 5.8% YoY in May, with value-added growth in communications and electrical equipment remaining robust [97] Consumption - Retail sales of household appliances and communication equipment rose significantly, with trade-in subsidies contributing to the growth [109] - The household savings rate remains above pre-COVID-19 levels, indicating cautious consumer spending [109] Inflation - Headline CPI remained weak at -0.1% YoY in May, with PPI declining further to -3.3% YoY [126] Money and Credit - Credit growth stabilized at 8.7% YoY, with new RMB loans totaling RMB 620 billion in May, weaker than market expectations [142] - The report anticipates continued accommodative monetary policy to support credit growth [154]

Investment Rating - 12-month rating: Sell [7] - 12-month price target: US$215.00, raised from US$190.00 [5][7] Core Insights - The Tesla Robotaxi Network presents a significant opportunity, potentially growing to a fleet of 2.3 million vehicles by 2040, generating approximately $200 billion in revenue [2][39][56] - Tesla's unique position stems from its vertical integration of the autonomous stack and vehicle, along with operating its own transportation network company (TNC) [3][35] - Initial operations of the robotaxi service may be limited, starting with 10-20 vehicles, but this approach is seen as prudent for scaling and controlling the narrative [3][35] Revenue Projections - Estimated gross bookings for the Tesla Network could reach nearly $350 billion by 2040, translating to around $203 billion in total revenue [56] - Revenue per mile is projected to start at $3, remaining flat throughout the forecast period [52][56] Fleet Size and Utilization - The fleet is expected to grow to approximately 2.3 million vehicles by 2040, with Tesla initially owning all vehicles [39][40] - Utilization rates are projected to improve from 50% to 70% by 2040, with each vehicle driving an average of 35,000 to 49,000 revenue-generating miles per year [45][46] Cost Structure - Key cost factors include maintenance, insurance, and depreciation, with total gross profit forecasted to exceed $140 billion in 2040 [69] - Specific cost estimates include maintenance at $0.13 per mile in 2025, growing to $0.15 by 2040, and insurance costs starting at $0.26 per mile in 2025 [60][59] Business Model Dynamics - The business model for robotaxis is evolving, with potential variations based on fleet ownership and integration levels [15][19] - Tesla's model may include both owned and contributed fleets, allowing for flexibility in meeting demand [35][39] Valuation Metrics - The valuation model suggests a significant premium for Tesla, with a core auto business valued at approximately $25 per share and energy at $19 per share [5] - The overall valuation reflects a substantial portion attributed to the Tesla premium, estimated at $250 billion [5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US economy is expected to experience a slowdown in growth, with real GDP growth projected to decelerate from 3.2% in 2023 to 0.9% in 2025, before slightly recovering to 1.8% in 2027 [4][5] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise from 3.8% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2025, peaking at 4.8% in 2026, before slightly declining to 4.7% in 2027 [4] - PCE inflation is projected to increase to 3.3% in 2025, before declining to 2.4% by 2027, while core PCE inflation is expected to follow a similar trend [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates in response to a weakening labor market, with the federal funds rate projected to decrease from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2027 [4][5] Economic Growth Projections - Real GDP growth is forecasted to be 1.3% in 2022, 3.2% in 2023, 2.5% in 2024, 0.9% in 2025, 1.5% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027 [4] - The anticipated slowdown in growth is attributed to reduced government spending and slower real income growth, alongside significant tariffs impacting trade relationships [5][6] Labor Market Insights - The unemployment rate is projected to rise from 3.6% in 2022 to 4.6% in 2025, with a slight decrease to 4.7% by 2027 [4] - Job gains are expected to average around 130K per month, with potential contractions in the labor market if GDP growth falls below 1.0% [67] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The effective tax rate on imports has increased significantly due to tariffs, which are expected to weigh on economic growth and inflation [6][12] - Core inflation is projected to remain elevated due to tariffs, with expectations that it would be below 2.5% in 2025 without the tariff impacts [93] Fiscal Policy and Government Spending - Fiscal policy is expected to contribute positively to GDP growth in 2023 but will diminish in subsequent years, with a projected deficit widening of $2.3 trillion over ten years due to tax and spending bills [15][95] - Government employment growth is anticipated to slow, with federal hiring already decreasing [100][103] Business Investment Trends - Business fixed investment is expected to soften, with significant uncertainty surrounding tax and trade policies dampening investment intentions [47][61] - Tariffs are likely to increase costs for businesses, making them less competitive internationally [49]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the China medtech sector but indicates that the restrictive measures from the EU are better than market expectations, suggesting a positive outlook for Chinese firms in this sector [2][4]. Core Insights - The European Commission's announcement on June 20, 2025, restricts Chinese participation in EU medical devices procurement, allowing a maximum of 50% of inputs from China for contracts valued at EUR5 million or more [3][4]. - Approximately 96% of the EU's medtech procurement procedures from 2017 to 2022 had values below EUR5 million, indicating that the majority of procurement activities remain unaffected by these new restrictions [4]. - Companies such as Mindray, MGI Tech, and Sonoscape are expected to experience limited impact from these measures, as their revenue exposure to the EU market is manageable, with MGI Tech at 11.4%, Mindray at 7.9%, and United Imaging at 3.7% [5]. Summary by Sections EU Market Access Restrictions - The EU's measures stem from an investigation that found China unfairly limiting access for EU medical device producers to its government contracts [2][3]. - The restrictions apply to public procurement across all medical device categories valued at EUR5 million or more, but allow for participation if the 50% threshold is met [3]. Impact on China Medtech Sector - The report suggests that the impacts of the EU's measures are largely manageable for the China medtech sector, with significant opportunities still available for Chinese firms [4]. - The majority of covered companies have not participated in EU public procurements exceeding EUR5 million, which mitigates potential revenue loss [5]. Company-Level Analysis - The revenue exposure of the covered companies to the EU market is generally manageable, with specific percentages outlined for each company [5]. - Some companies have established local manufacturing facilities in Europe, which can help mitigate challenges posed by the new restrictions [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral stance on the tactical USD 5y5y model despite the underperformance of energy markets, indicating a cautious approach to investment in this area [7][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant underperformance of US breakevens relative to oil strength, attributed to weak CPI figures and labor market data, as well as skepticism regarding the persistence of oil price movements [3][11]. - The FOMC's dovish reaction function is expected to positively influence TIPS breakevens, with projections indicating a marginal increase in unemployment while allowing inflation to overshoot [3][7]. - The report suggests that breakevens often overshoot fundamental values during periods of oil volatility, presenting potential trading opportunities, particularly in fading large oil-driven moves [5][13][22]. Summary by Sections US Market - Breakeven rates are recommended to be long, particularly in the 5-year area, as they are perceived to be undervalued due to tariff passthrough underpricing [7][8]. - Real rates are also recommended to be long, especially in the 30-year segment, where support has returned above 2.5% [7]. Euro Area - Breakevens are viewed as slightly cheap to fair value but lack compelling support, particularly in the long end [7]. - The report suggests that steepeners across the curve may be a better expression than outright positions [7]. UK Market - The report recommends a short position on the 10-year RPI, while suggesting a long position on the long end of the curve [7][8]. - The UK inflation performance is noted as strong, but the report indicates that it may be overpriced [4].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or specific companies covered Core Insights - The Trump administration has increased the tax credit for chipmakers from 25% to 30%, incentivizing investment in US projects and new facilities [2] - Major tech companies are lobbying for a 10-year ban on state regulation of AI to prevent inconsistent regional rules that could hinder innovation [3] - The Taiwanese government is investing approximately $3 billion in 10 AI projects focusing on applications, new technologies, and infrastructure [4] - Texas Instruments plans to invest $60 billion in semiconductor plants in the US, including new factories in Texas [4] - SK Group and AWS are collaborating on a 60,000 GPU data center in South Korea, which will be the largest of its kind in the country [5] - A dozen Latin American countries are working together to launch Latam-GPT, an AI model tailored to the region's cultural and linguistic diversity [6] - Amazon is set to invest around $13 billion in data centers in Australia, alongside investments in solar farms to support this infrastructure [7] Summary by Sections US Enterprise Hardware and Networking - The increase in the tax credit for chipmakers is expected to boost investment in US semiconductor projects [2] AI and Technology Investments - Tech companies are advocating for a moratorium on state-level AI regulations to streamline innovation efforts [3] - Taiwan's investment in AI projects highlights a strategic focus on technology development and infrastructure [4] - The collaboration between SK Group and AWS on a GPU data center signifies a significant investment in AI infrastructure in South Korea [5] - The initiative to create Latam-GPT reflects a growing interest in AI tailored to specific regional needs [6] Data Center Investments - Amazon's substantial investment in Australian data centers indicates a strong commitment to expanding its cloud infrastructure [7] - Texas Instruments' investment in semiconductor plants underscores the ongoing demand for hardware in the tech sector [4]

Investment Rating - The investment ratings for Stellantis, Renault, and Volkswagen are all rated as Neutral [4][49]. BMW is rated as Buy [49]. Core Insights - Chinese OEMs have increased their market share in Europe to 6%, with 11% in the EV segment, indicating a significant acceleration in their presence [2][29]. - The report highlights that the focus of Chinese brands has shifted towards the mass market, particularly in the entry segment, which is less profitable for incumbent OEMs [2][3]. - Stellantis is identified as the most vulnerable to competition from Chinese brands, followed by Renault and Volkswagen, particularly in the A/B segments where they have high exposure [4][6]. Summary by Sections Market Share and Competition - Chinese brands are correcting past mistakes and expanding their offerings, achieving notable success in Spain and Italy, where they hold a cumulative market share of 9% [3][14]. - The entry segment under €25k is particularly attractive for Chinese brands, as legacy brands have reduced their offerings in this price range [3][30]. Company-Specific Analysis - Stellantis has the highest exposure to the competitive threat from Chinese brands, especially in Italy and Spain, where their market share is significant [4][21]. - Volkswagen has benefited from Tesla's recent weaknesses, with a 59% year-on-year increase in Q1 BEV sales, primarily in the corporate fleet segment [4][29]. - BMW is expected to benefit from strong EV demand, particularly with the launch of the Neue Klasse and the iX3, which offers an unprecedented range and fast charging capabilities [4][30]. Future Outlook - The potential replacement of EU EV import tariffs with minimum pricing could intensify competition for affordable BEVs from Chinese manufacturers [2][30]. - The report anticipates that the growing strength of Chinese brands in the entry segment could pose challenges for Volkswagen's upcoming models, such as the ID.2 and ID.1 [4][30].