Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the global oil and gas industry, indicating a bullish sentiment towards oil prices and market conditions [3][4]. Core Insights - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $65.99 per barrel in 2025, with a gradual increase to $75.00 by 2028 [3]. - Global oil demand is expected to grow by 0.7 million barrels per day (Mb/d) in 2025 and 0.8 Mb/d in 2026, with a projected peak before a moderate decline [31][34]. - Supply growth is anticipated at 1.4 Mb/d in 2025, primarily driven by non-OPEC+ countries, with a slowdown in US supply growth expected [65][111]. Summary by Sections Global Oil Market Outlook - The global oil market is projected to remain balanced, with a surplus expected in 2025 and 2026 [22]. - Demand growth is primarily driven by regions such as the US and China, while other OECD countries show slower growth [28][31]. Price Forecasts - The report outlines a detailed price forecast for Brent and WTI crude oil, with Brent prices expected to be $74.97 in Q1 2025 and $62.00 in Q3 and Q4 2025 [3]. Supply and Demand Balance - The quarterly global oil supply and demand balance indicates a slight surplus, with demand expected to outpace supply in the near term [27][22]. - The report highlights that OPEC+ compliance and geopolitical tensions will significantly impact supply dynamics [78][92]. Demand by Region - Global oil demand is projected to expand across various regions, with significant contributions from China and the US, while other regions may experience stagnation [28][31]. Impact of Electric Vehicles (EVs) - The penetration of EVs is expected to displace approximately 9 Mb/d of oil demand by 2040, significantly impacting traditional oil consumption patterns [49][53]. US Supply Dynamics - US crude oil production growth is forecasted to slow, with an increase of only 0.4 Mb/d in 2025, influenced by declining rig counts and drilling activity [111][115]. Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, Libya, and Venezuela, pose risks to oil supply stability, which could affect global prices and availability [92][94].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, particularly favoring companies like TI, Renesas, and Infineon due to improving inventory levels and stable pricing trends [2][3]. Core Insights - The semiconductor inventory in the channel is approaching healthier levels, with a notable decline in MCU inventories over the past three months, which is supportive for companies like MCHP and STM [2][3]. - Pricing across all product categories has shown a slight increase, with an overall rise of 3% month-over-month and 13% year-over-year, indicating a favorable pricing environment [3][8]. - The report highlights a continued digestion of MCU inventories, which had previously remained elevated, suggesting a longer-term positive trend for the industry [3][5]. Summary by Product Area - **MCUs**: Normalized unit inventory has decreased by 4% month-over-month after a 24% decline last month, with pricing up 2% month-over-month and flat year-over-year [4][13]. - **Transistors**: Inventory down 1% this month, while pricing increased by 5% month-over-month and 16% year-over-year, driven largely by bipolar transistors [4][13]. - **Amplifiers and Data Converters**: Pricing slightly increased, with inventories showing mixed trends; amplifiers down slightly while data converters were stable [4][13]. - **MLCC**: Inventory increased by 10% month-over-month in April, reflecting potential front-loading due to US tariff policies, but showed a decline of 1% through mid-May [4][13]. - **Overall Trends**: The report indicates that pricing and inventory trends are generally stable, with the notable exception of the ongoing digestion of MCU inventories [5][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive view on H-shares, indicating a favorable investment outlook for this sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a revival with a total amount raised year-to-date at US$9 billion, reflecting a 320% year-on-year increase, although still below the peak of 2020 [1]. - Newly listed companies have delivered an average return of 18% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index (HSI) by 13% [1]. - Factors contributing to this outperformance include improved quality of listed companies, tighter IPO restrictions in mainland China, enhanced liquidity in Hong Kong, and increased foreign investor appetite for core Chinese assets [1]. - The A-H premium currently stands at 33%, which is around the 10-year average but below the recent five-year average, with potential for narrowing in the near term due to easing geopolitical tensions and improved liquidity [2]. - Passive inflows into large Hong Kong IPOs are expected to benefit blue-chip A-share companies listed in Hong Kong, with estimated funds under management for HSTECH and MSCI China-based ETFs at approximately US$24 billion and US$12 billion, respectively [3]. - Despite significant IPO activity, total equity raisings in Hong Kong are dwarfed by US$53 billion of southbound inflows year-to-date, indicating strong demand for H-shares [4]. Summary by Sections Hong Kong IPO Market - The total amount raised in the Hong Kong IPO market year-to-date is US$9 billion, a 320% increase year-on-year, with an average return of 18% [1]. - The quality and vintage of companies listed have improved, contributing to the strong performance of IPOs [1]. A-H Premium Analysis - The A-H premium is currently at 33%, with potential for narrowing due to various factors including geopolitical easing and increased foreign inflows [2]. Passive Inflows and Market Dynamics - Blue-chip A-share companies listed in Hong Kong are expected to benefit from passive inflows, with significant funds under management in relevant ETFs [3]. - Southbound inflows significantly exceed equity raisings, highlighting the attractiveness of H-shares [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the S&P 500, with an expected EPS growth of 10.3% for 1Q25, slightly above the current consensus estimate of 10.2% [12][29]. Core Insights - The earnings season has shown that 90.1% of the S&P 500's market cap has reported, with revenues expected to grow by 4.7% and EPS by 10.2%. Earnings are beating estimates by an aggregate of 7.9%, with 72% of companies exceeding projections [1][14]. - The TECH+ sector is projected to significantly outpace the overall market, with expected EPS growth of 27.6% compared to the S&P 500's 10.2% [7][22]. - Non-Cyclicals are expected to see sales growth of 5.6%, primarily driven by Healthcare and Utilities, despite a slight contraction in margins [2][14]. Summary by Relevant Sections Earnings Performance - The S&P 500 is expected to report a revenue growth of 4.7% and an earnings growth of 10.2% for 1Q25, with TECH+ contributing significantly to this growth [1][14]. - The Big 6 TECH+ companies are anticipated to achieve an EPS growth of 31.8%, outperforming the broader market [3][22]. Sector Analysis - Non-Cyclicals are projected to grow sales by 5.6%, with Healthcare and Utilities leading the way [2][14]. - Cyclicals ex-Energy are expected to see a marginal EPS growth of 1.2%, while Energy is forecasted to decline by 16.7% [7][22]. Upcoming Reports - Over the next five trading days, 16 companies representing 7.5% of the S&P 500's market cap are scheduled to report earnings, including notable firms like NVIDIA and Salesforce [4][49].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 to 4% from a previous estimate of 3.4% due to improved trade relations and expected policy support [3][26]. Core Insights - The easing of US-China trade tensions is expected to reduce the impact of tariffs on China's GDP growth by 1-1.5 percentage points, compared to over 2 percentage points before the easing [2][23]. - Despite a slowdown in economic activity in April, industrial production and exports exceeded expectations, with industrial production growth slowing to 6.1% year-on-year [1][13]. - Retail sales growth in April was 5.1%, supported by strong sales in home appliances and communication equipment due to ongoing subsidy policies [1][6]. Economic Overview - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial value added was 6.1%, down from 7.7% in March, influenced by high base effects [5][13]. - Social retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% in April, with significant contributions from home appliances and furniture sales [1][6]. - Fixed asset investment growth decreased to 3.6% in April, with infrastructure investment slowing to 9.6% [11][12]. Trade Performance - April exports grew by 8.1%, with a notable 21% decline in exports to the US, while exports to ASEAN countries surged by 20.7% [12][23]. - Imports in April saw a slight decline of 0.2%, better than the 4.4% drop in March [12][15]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1% in April, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a further decline of 2.7% [18][21]. - Monetary easing measures have been implemented, including a reduction in policy interest rates and reserve requirements, with expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [24][25]. Future Focus - The ongoing US-China trade negotiations are critical, with potential impacts on global growth and trade dynamics [27]. - The report highlights the need for the government to enhance policies to stabilize the real estate market, which continues to show signs of weakness [27].

Global Research Q-Series Will APAC data centers be oversupplied in 2030? John Lam Analyst john-za.lam@ubs.com +852-2971 6358 Kenji Yasui Analyst kenji.yasui@ubs.com +81-3-5208 6211 Terence Lee Analyst terence.lee@ubs.com +65-6495 3570 Phil Campbell Analyst phil.campbell@ubs.com +64-9-913 4872 Michael Lim Analyst michael-h.lim@ubs.com +65-6495 5902 Yoon Cho Analyst yoon.cho@ubs.com +82-2-3702 8805 Sara Wang Analyst sara.wang@ubs.com +852-2971 7280 Tim Plumbe Analyst tim.plumbe@ubs.com +61-2-9324 3726 Tom Bod ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several major Chinese banks, including China Construction Bank (CCB), China Merchants Bank (CMB), and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) [7][25]. Core Insights - Investors are currently underweight on Chinese banks due to a soft domestic economy and uncertainties related to trade conflicts, despite recognizing the strong performance of bank stocks [2][3]. - The report highlights the importance of dividend yields, with CCB and CMB being particularly attractive due to their relatively high yields and strong capital ratios [7][8]. - There is a growing interest in fintech, with investors focusing on regulatory changes and the relationship between fintech companies and traditional banks [6][4]. Summary by Sections Investor Sentiment - Approximately 50% of investors plan to hold their positions in Chinese banks, viewing them as a defensive play amid uncertainties, while the other half are considering taking profits or switching to other high-dividend sectors [2][3]. Recapitalization and Dividends - The recapitalization of large state-owned banks is seen as beneficial for both the banks and the government, providing sustainable support for the real economy and future dividend payouts [3]. - Concerns exist regarding the potential decline in interim dividends due to year-over-year profit declines observed in Q1 2025 for some banks [3]. Earnings and Asset Quality - The report anticipates a year-over-year decline in net profits for some large state-owned and joint-stock banks in H1 2025, which may impact dividend announcements [3]. - Asset quality remains a concern, particularly in the property and retail sectors, with a significant portion of risky debt identified in listed A-share companies [3]. NIM and Tariff Impact - The outlook for Net Interest Margin (NIM) is discussed, with a recent policy rate cut expected to have a mixed impact on banks' profitability [3]. - While banks have limited exposure to export-oriented businesses, indirect impacts from tariffs and macroeconomic slowdowns could be more significant [3]. Valuation and Performance - The report provides a valuation summary for various banks, indicating that CCB and CMB lead in dividend yield and capital ratios among their peers [7][8]. - Year-to-date performance shows that MSCI China banks have underperformed compared to the broader MSCI China index [9][10].

Global Research China Two-Wheeler Sector Assessing US tariff hike risks We hosted a series of conference calls this week We invited several manufacturers with exports to US to our calls—Ninebot, CFMoto, Taotao Vehicles, Lvtong New Energy Electric Vehicle, Niu Technologies, and Greenworks Jiangsu Co. In particular, Taotao and Greenworks could have 70-80% revenue exposure to the US market, CFMoto 30%, and Ninebot within 10%. Fending off tariff threats via 'channel restocking + capacity relocation' ab 22 May 2 ...

主题：第 28 届瑞银亚洲投资论坛媒体分享会 ——中国股票市场展望 时间：2025 年 5 月 21 日（下午） 嘉宾： 房东明 瑞银全球金融市场部中国主管 王宗豪 瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管 【主持人】：各位线上的媒体朋友以及万得平台的观众下午好！感谢您加入 本次第 28 届瑞银亚洲投资论坛的媒体分享会。"瑞银亚洲投资论坛"将于 5 月 27 日起在香港正式召开，本次媒体分享会作为论坛的先行活动之一，我们将聚 焦中国股票市场。 目前我们看到全球贸易环境的不确定性其实推高了本季度股票市场的波动， 目前中美已就关税问题展开了谈判，目前投资者对中国股票市场有何期待？未 来机遇在哪里？针对这些问题我们今天请到了： 瑞银全球金融市场部中国主管 房东明房总；瑞银投资银行中国股票策略主 管 王宗豪（James），两位就这些问题进行深入的分享。 首先我们把时间交给房总，房总将就近期投资者对中国股市的关注以及观察 进行分享。 【房东明】：谢谢 AC 的介绍！也感谢各位媒体朋友、Wind，大家下午好！ 本来想在演播室里面跟大家分享，投资者对中国投资的热情应该说还是很高涨 的，我正好在两个投资者会议之间，现在在车上连线跟各 ...

Latest company comments largely maintained capex outlook this year As highlighted previously, we believe China internet companies focus on GPU efficiency and utilisation, and thus their capex target has been more demand driven and can adjust in a swift, dynamic manner based on changes in the demand outlook. In the recent Q125 earnings, major US tech leaders, including Microsoft, Google and Meta, have maintained or even increased capex guidance for the year (Figure 2Capex udtsfrom UShyperscal inrectags l), p ...