
Search documents
速腾聚创:产品迭代导致量增价跌
西牛证券· 2024-08-26 13:45
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HK$ 19.90, down from a previous target of HK$ 23.30 [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved total revenue of RMB 730 million in the first half of 2024, with 83.8% from lidar sales for ADAS and robotics. The gross margin improved to 13.6%, and net loss decreased from RMB 770 million in the same period last year to RMB 270 million [1]. - The sales of lidar for robotics showed explosive growth potential, with 8,900 units sold in the first half of 2024, primarily from lower-priced Helios and Bpearl series. The company expects quarterly sales to reach last year's total in the third or fourth quarter of this year [1]. - The report highlights that product iterations are driving increased sales volume but leading to price declines. The company is expected to achieve positive free cash flow in 2025 and break even in 2026, despite a downward adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts due to a higher proportion of lower-priced E1 and MX sales [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 1,120.1 million in 2024, RMB 2,300.3 million in 2025, RMB 3,726.0 million in 2026, and RMB 4,863.5 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 105.4% and 62.0% for 2024 and 2025 respectively [7]. - The gross margin is expected to improve to 15.3% in 2024, 18.4% in 2025, and 22.4% in 2026, despite the anticipated decline in average selling prices due to product mix changes [10]. - The net profit is projected to be a loss of RMB 467 million in 2024, narrowing to RMB 227 million in 2025, and turning positive in 2026 with a profit of RMB 35.1 million [7][10].
速腾聚创:Product iteration results in an increment in sales volume but a lower ASP
西牛证券· 2024-08-26 13:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for RoboSense (02498.HK) with a target price of HK$ 19.90, down from the previous target price of HK$ 23.30 [1][6]. Core Insights - RoboSense reported RMB 727.1 million in revenue for the first half of 2024, with 83.8% from LiDAR sales for ADAS and 10.7% from robotics. The gross margin increased to 13.6%, and the net loss decreased from RMB 768.3 million to RMB 267.5 million [2]. - The company anticipates significant growth in LiDAR sales for robotics, projecting sales of 8,900 units in the first half of 2024, primarily driven by the Helios and Bpeal series. The sales volume in Q3/Q4 is expected to match the total shipments of FY 2023 [3]. - The report highlights the potential for improved gross margins due to economies of scale and product iterations, with expectations of a 2-9 percentage point increase in gross margin for the ADAS segment [5]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for RoboSense are as follows: RMB 1,120.1 million in 2023, RMB 2,300.3 million in 2024, RMB 3,726.0 million in 2025, and RMB 4,863.5 million in 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111.2% in 2023 and 105.4% in 2024 [13]. - The gross profit is expected to rise from RMB 93.6 million in 2023 to RMB 1,090.7 million in 2026, with gross margins improving from 8.4% to 22.4% over the same period [13]. - The net loss is projected to decrease significantly from RMB 4,336.6 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 30.8 million by 2026 [1][13]. Product Development - The introduction of the MX model is expected to enhance sales in the lower-end automobile market, with significant contributions anticipated in the second half of 2025 [4]. - The E1 LiDAR, initially designed for blind spot detection, is being positioned as a cost-effective solution for robotics, which is expected to drive revenue growth in that segment [3][5]. Market Position - RoboSense's market capitalization is approximately HK$ 5.1 billion, with a current price of HK$ 11.42, reflecting a significant decline from its 52-week high of HK$ 137.50 [1][10].
赢家时尚:双引擎成长预期落空
西牛证券· 2024-08-22 08:46
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HK$ 12.42, down from a previous target of HK$ 16.78 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company faced significant headwinds in the first half of 2024, achieving total revenue of RMB 3.31 billion, which remained flat compared to the same period last year. The retail sales in China continued to stagnate, and the macroeconomic uncertainty posed challenges for the group [1][2]. - The shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards more conservative spending has negatively impacted local mid-to-high-end brands, including the company. Higher-end brands like La Koradior and NEXY showed growth, while other mid-to-high-end brands experienced declines [2]. - The number of stores decreased to 1,912, with both direct-operated and franchised stores declining compared to the end of last year. The company is replacing smaller stores with larger ones, but the diminishing demand is weakening the cross-selling capabilities of these larger stores [2]. - The gross margin performance was surprisingly strong, with an overall gross margin of 76.3%, driven by improved procurement strategies from brands like NAERSI and NEXY [2]. - Promotional spending increased to 3.7% of total revenue in the first half of 2024, higher than the previous guidance of 3%, due to a sudden shift in product demand [2]. - The company is adjusting its growth expectations due to the unexpected market shift, which has affected inventory and promotional strategies. The dual-engine growth expectation has not materialized, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts and target price [1][2]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, total revenue is projected at RMB 6,912.3 million, with a year-on-year growth of -1.3%. The gross profit is expected to be RMB 5,205.0 million, with a gross margin of 75.3% [5][6]. - The net profit for 2024 is projected at RMB 832.6 million, reflecting a significant decline of 35.5% compared to the previous year [5][6]. - The company’s financial ratios indicate a gross margin of 75.3% and a net profit margin of 12.0% for 2022, with expectations for slight improvements in subsequent years [6].
赢家时尚:Unable to meet the expectation of dual engines
西牛证券· 2024-08-22 08:45
Investment Rating - The investment rating for EEKA Fashion (03709.HK) is "BUY" with a target price of HK$ 12.42, down from a previous target price of HK$ 16.78 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 3.3 billion for the first half of 2024, which is flat compared to the previous year. The retail sales in China remained stagnant in Q2, leading to a challenging macro environment for EEKA Fashion [1][2]. - The consumption downgrade and polarization in China have intensified, affecting mid-to-high-end local brands like EEKA Fashion. This has resulted in a mixed performance where higher-end brands like La Koradior and NEXY have seen growth, while other mid-to-high-end brands have retreated [2]. - The number of stores has decreased to 1,912, with a decline in both group-operated and wholesaler stores. The company is replacing smaller stores with larger ones, but waning demand has reduced cross-selling capabilities [2]. - The gross margin has surprisingly increased to 76.3%, driven by successful procurement policies in the wholesale and e-commerce segments [2]. - Promotional expenses increased to 3.7% of total revenue in 2024 1H, exceeding the guidance of 3%, due to a sudden market turnaround. The company plans to adjust its promotional input dynamically based on the economic conditions in China [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 6,912.3 million for 2024, RMB 6,825.3 million for 2025, RMB 7,324.7 million for 2026, and RMB 7,958.0 million for 2027, indicating a year-on-year growth of -1.3% in 2024, followed by 7.3% in 2025 and 8.6% in 2026 [7]. - The gross profit for the years is projected to be RMB 5,205.0 million in 2024, RMB 5,186.0 million in 2025, RMB 5,563.3 million in 2026, and RMB 6,040.9 million in 2027 [7]. - The net profit is expected to decline significantly to RMB 536.8 million in 2024, with a recovery to RMB 674.1 million in 2025 and RMB 888.2 million in 2026 [7]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable at around 75.9% for the next few years [8].
槟杰科达:Recovery is delayed due to macro issues
西牛证券· 2024-08-09 03:31
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating to Pentamaster (01665.HK) with a target price of HK$ 0.95 [2][3]. Core Insights - Pentamaster's performance in the first half of 2024 was sluggish, with revenue remaining flat at MYR 342.1 million compared to the previous year. The ATE segment saw a significant decline of 45.1% year-on-year, while the FAS segment experienced a growth of 1.4 times [3]. - The gross margin decreased due to R&D expenses and reduced economies of scale in the ATE segment, leading to a year-on-year decline in the bottom line of 12.8% for 2024 1H and 13.5% for Q2 [3]. - The medical segment showed stable contributions from a major customer, generating MYR 155.5 million, which provides a decent outlook despite downward adjustments in forecasts [3]. - The report expresses concerns about the recovery of other segments, particularly the semiconductor and automotive segments, which saw declines of 63.2% and 51.8% year-on-year, respectively, in Q2 [3]. - The report indicates that recovery is delayed due to macroeconomic issues, but maintains a long-term positive outlook due to potential drivers like KGD testers and single-use medical devices expected in FY 2025 [3]. Financial Overview - For 2024, revenue is projected to be MYR 738.8 million, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%. The gross profit is expected to be MYR 212.0 million, with a gross margin of 28.7% [9]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at MYR 131.8 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.3% [9]. - The financial ratios indicate a gross margin of 30.3% for 2023, with a projected decrease to 28.7% in 2024 [11]. Peer Comparison - Pentamaster's market capitalization is approximately HKD 1.6 billion, with a P/E ratio of 6.7 and a forward P/E of 5.1. The average gross margin among peers is 39.0% [6].
槟杰科达:由于宏观问题 , 恢复延迟
西牛证券· 2024-08-09 03:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pentamaster (01665. HK) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 0.95 per share [1][3]. Core Insights - The company experienced a stagnant revenue of MYR 342.1 million in the first half of 2024, with a significant decline of 45.1% in the ATE segment, offset by a 1.4 times increase in the FAS segment. The overall performance saw a year-on-year decline of 12.8% [2][3]. - Despite the disappointing performance, the medical sector remains a strong contributor, with MYR 155.5 million from major clients, providing a positive outlook for the company [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential drivers for growth in FY2025, including the delivery of prototype devices and single-use medical devices to new clients [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Pentamaster are as follows: MYR 691.9 million in 2023, MYR 738.8 million in 2024, MYR 931.4 million in 2025, and MYR 1,026.5 million in 2026 [1][10]. - Gross profit is expected to be MYR 209.6 million in 2023, increasing to MYR 310.5 million by 2026, with gross margins around 30.3% in 2023 and stabilizing around 30.2% by 2026 [1][10]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 18.0% in 2023, declining to 16.2% by 2026 [1][10]. Market Performance - The stock has underperformed in the past year, with a decline of 19.8% over the last month and 31.8% over the past year compared to the Hang Seng Index [1][2]. - The report notes that the semiconductor and automotive sectors have seen significant declines, with contributions down 63.2% and 51.8% respectively in the second quarter [2][3]. Sector Comparison - Pentamaster's market capitalization is approximately MYR 1.56 billion, with a P/E ratio of 6.7 and a P/B ratio of 1.0, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to peers [7]. - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies in the sector is around 39.0, highlighting potential undervaluation of Pentamaster [7].
槟杰科达:复苏受制于宏观因素
西牛证券· 2024-08-09 03:01
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HK$ 0.95 [1]. Core Insights - The company's performance in the first half of the fiscal year was disappointing, with total revenue of approximately 340 million Malaysian Ringgit, showing a year-on-year decline of 12.8% and 13.5% in net profit for the first half and second quarter respectively [1]. - The revenue contribution from major medical clients remained stable, with 160 million Malaysian Ringgit generated from the medical segment, despite a downward adjustment in financial forecasts for these clients [1]. - The semiconductor and automotive segments experienced significant declines, with year-on-year drops of 63.2% and 51.8% respectively, impacting overall financial performance [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from new products like KGD testing instruments and single-use medical devices, which may contribute to revenue in the fiscal year 2025 [1]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 691.9 million in 2023, 738.8 million in 2024, 931.4 million in 2025, and 1,026.5 million in 2026, indicating a growth rate of 15.2% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2024 [5]. - Gross profit is projected to be 209.6 million in 2025 and 310.5 million in 2026, with gross margins expected to stabilize around 30.3% [5]. - Net profit is forecasted to reach 142.2 million in 2025 and 195.3 million in 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 32.5% in 2025 [5]. Market Comparison - The company has a market capitalization of approximately 1.56 billion Hong Kong dollars, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.7 and a projected price-to-earnings ratio of 5.1 [2]. - The average gross margin for comparable companies in the industry is around 46.4%, while the company’s gross margin stands at 30.3% [2].
速腾聚创:增长势头将由双重驱动因素带来
西牛证券· 2024-07-23 12:22
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to RoboSense (02498.HK) with a target price of HK$23.30 per share [1]. Core Insights - RoboSense is a leading provider of LiDAR and perception solutions in China, focusing on applications in ADAS, robotics, and other sectors. The company has achieved significant design wins with 71 models in mass production and 25 models in SOP (Start of Production) as of May 2024 [11][58]. - The growth momentum is driven by dual factors: the M platform as the main revenue source and the anticipated mass production of the E and F platforms in 2025 and 2026, respectively [94]. - The company has developed mechanical and solid-state LiDAR technologies, with the M platform being the primary revenue driver. The E platform is designed for short-range detection, while the F platform will support ultra-long detection ranges [12][94]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - RoboSense specializes in LiDAR and perception solutions for various applications, including ADAS and robotics. The company has established partnerships with 22 automotive OEMs and tier-one suppliers [11][58]. Sales of LiDAR Products - Sales of LiDAR products for ADAS reached 240k units in 2023 and 116k units in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5 times and 5.4 times, respectively [25][99]. - The revenue from ADAS LiDAR products in 2023 and Q1 2024 was RMB 777.1 million and RMB 305.9 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8 times and 3.3 times [30][99]. Financial Performance - The report indicates that RoboSense's gross margin for ADAS LiDAR products turned positive in Q1 2024, with expectations for further improvement due to economies of scale [102]. - The projected gross margin for the company is expected to rise to between 16.5% and 22.1% in the coming years [102]. Industry Overview - The global LiDAR solutions market was valued at RMB 12 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 78.8% to reach RMB 1,253.7 billion by 2030, with the automotive sector, particularly ADAS applications, being the primary growth driver [81].
速腾聚创:Growth momentum will be brought by dual drivers
西牛证券· 2024-07-23 12:01
Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on RoboSense (02498.HK) with a "BUY" rating and a target price of HKD 23.30 [20][24][165] Core Insights - RoboSense specializes in LiDAR and perception solutions for various applications, including ADAS and robotics, with significant design wins for mass production across multiple vehicle models [21][43][157] - The company has launched multiple product platforms (R, M, E, and upcoming F) to cater to different market needs, with the M platform being the primary income source [21][44][157] - The global LiDAR solutions market is projected to grow significantly, with the automotive sector expected to be the main driver, constituting a large portion of the market by 2030 [113][116][131] Business Overview - RoboSense provides LiDAR solutions for ADAS, robotics, and other applications, having achieved design wins for 71 vehicle models with 22 automotive OEMs [21][43] - The company operates two manufacturing centers in Shenzhen, with plans for expansion to meet increasing demand [75][162] Sales of LiDAR Products - Sales of LiDAR products for ADAS showed significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.5x in 2023 and 5.4x in Q1 2024 [60][68] - The revenue from LiDAR products for ADAS reached RMB 777.1 million in 2023, reflecting a substantial increase [68] Production Capacity - RoboSense's manufacturing facilities have a combined monthly capacity of approximately 49,300 units, with plans to expand to over 1 million units to meet future demand [75][162] AI Perception Software - The company has developed AI perception software, HyperVision, which enhances the capabilities of its LiDAR products in various applications, including autonomous driving and robotics [81][87] Solutions - RoboSense offers integrated solutions that combine LiDAR hardware with perception software, tailored to meet specific customer requirements [83][90] Major Customers - The company serves a diverse customer base, including over 270 automotive OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers, as well as numerous non-automotive clients [102][119] Industry Overview - The global LiDAR solutions market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 78.8%, reaching RMB 1,253.7 billion by 2030, with the automotive sector being a key contributor [113][116] - Solid-state LiDARs are anticipated to dominate the market, accounting for 85.3% of the share by 2030 due to their advantages over mechanical LiDARs [131]
速腾聚创:双轮成长动能
西牛证券· 2024-07-23 09:31
Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$ 23.30 [54][53]. Core Insights - The company, SUTENG JUCHUANG (02498.HK), focuses on providing LiDAR and perception solutions for ADAS, robotics, and other applications, having secured 71 production orders from 22 automotive manufacturers and tier-one suppliers as of May 2024 [58][59]. - The global LiDAR solutions market was valued at RMB 12 billion in 2022 and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 78.8% to RMB 1,253.7 billion by 2030, with the automotive sector being the primary growth driver [4][5]. - The company has developed three LiDAR platforms: R platform for robotics, M platform for automotive applications, and E platform for short-range detection, with plans for a new F platform to support ultra-long detection ranges [59][60]. Summary by Sections Business Overview - SUTENG JUCHUANG was founded in August 2014 and aims to develop LiDAR technology for automotive and robotics applications [26]. - The company has launched several products, including the M1 series for ADAS applications and the E1 solid-state LiDAR [27][28]. Market Overview - The automotive LiDAR solutions market is expected to account for 79.8% of the total LiDAR solutions market by 2030, driven by ADAS applications [4]. - The robotics LiDAR solutions market is projected to grow from RMB 8.2 billion in 2022 to RMB 216.2 billion by 2030, with China expected to become the largest market [29]. Production Capacity - The company operates two manufacturing centers in Shenzhen, with a total designed capacity of over 1 million units per year expected by Q3 2024 [12][14]. - The production capacity is set to meet the increasing demand for LiDAR products, with significant growth anticipated in shipment volumes [12][14]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected shipments of approximately 800,000 units in 2024 and 2 million units in 2025, leading to a revenue increase of 111.2% in 2023 and 119.9% in 2024 [14][36]. - Gross margins are anticipated to improve steadily, reaching between 16.5% and 22.1% over the next three years [15][36]. Valuation - The company is valued using discounted cash flow and price-to-sales models, with a fair valuation estimated at HK$ 24.30 per share [18][32]. - The report highlights that the company’s current valuation reflects its potential for future growth, particularly in terms of market share and shipment volume [32].