Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is expected to remain stable at 3.2% in 2025, consistent with 2024 levels, but below the pre-pandemic 20-year average of 3.8%[7] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine are expected to ease, potentially reducing adverse impacts on the global economy[7] - Trump's potential policy shifts, including tariffs and domestic reforms, could significantly impact global trade and economic growth[9][11] China's Macroeconomic Performance - In 2024, China's economy was driven by strong external demand, with export growth significantly higher than in 2019 and 2023, while domestic demand remained weak[2][15] - Real estate investment and private sector investment were sluggish, with retail sales growth also underperforming, indicating weak domestic consumption[15][17] - China's GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2025, reflecting ongoing economic challenges[8] Policy and Reform Outlook - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference signaled a shift toward more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the economy[38] - Key policy measures include increasing fiscal deficit ratios, issuing long-term special bonds, and implementing targeted monetary easing to support economic growth[38] - Reforms aimed at boosting domestic consumption, stabilizing employment, and enhancing the service sector are critical for 2025's economic recovery[17][32] Risks and Uncertainties - External risks include potential disruptions from Trump's trade policies and global geopolitical tensions, which could negatively impact China's export-driven growth[9][11] - Domestic risks involve weak consumer confidence, a sluggish real estate market, and structural challenges in transitioning to new growth drivers[17][32]

邮箱：yangjianhui@zszq.com WIND 全 A 量价及中期走势图 市场情绪持续弱化，强化沪深股指形态 ——金工策略周报 2025 年第 01 期 e_invest] 中山证券研究所 分析师：阳建辉 登记编号：S0290518040001 相关研究报告 [table_subject] 2025 年 01 月 02 日 证券研究报告·金工策略周报（总第 309 期） 3. 政策预期发酵，股指横盘中反弹 2024-12-12 4. 市场情绪偏谨慎，沪深股指维持调整 2024-12-05 [table_main] 投资要点： 中山行业研究类模板 ●政策真空期与市场情绪持续弱化，强化沪深股指下跌形态。贸易摩擦与 高科技打压等外部冲击持续，政策真空期下的宽松预期、市场情绪持续弱化， 强化沪深股指横盘或下跌形态。 ●本期推荐银行【801780.SI】等行业。申万一级行业以横盘或下跌形态 为主，银行虽受主力资金小幅减持、但上涨形态尚在。 ◎ 市场走势预判：其一，沪深两市日均交易额 1.33 万亿，最新值 1.36 万 亿，前 1 期 1.43 万亿；沪深两市核心股指量能持续收缩，形态以下跌或横盘为 主。其二 ...

[table_subject] 2025 年 01 月 02 日 证券研究报告·电子行业周报 2024 年小米高端手机销量同比增长 43% ——中山证券电子行业周报 登记编号：S0290521120001 邮箱：gemiao@zszq.com 市场走势 [table_main] 投资要点： 中山行业研究类模板 ●三季度全球 VR 出货量同比下降 4%。市场调查机构 12 月 27 日发布博 文，报告 2024 年第 3 季度全球 VR 头显出货量同比下降 4%，环比下降 16%，连 续三个季度下滑。报告认为导致下降的主要原因，是 tetheredVR 头显市场同 比下降 50%，相比之下，独立 VR 耳机市场同比增长 14%。 ●2024 年小米高端手机销量同比增长 43%。在"卢伟冰的年度总结"活动 中，小米集团总裁卢伟冰透露，2024 年小米全球高端手机销量已经突破 1000 万部，大概会在 1200 万左右，同比增长 43%。 ◎回顾本周行情（12 月 26 日-1 月 1 日），本周上证综指下跌 1.23%，沪 深300指数下跌1.27%。电子行业表现弱于大市。申万一级电子指数下跌2.72%， 跑输上 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic industry, indicating a recovery in demand and recommending attention to upstream equipment and materials that are relatively independent of the industry cycle [35][43]. Core Insights - Global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.01%, although this is a decrease from the previous quarter's growth of 7.58% [10][20]. - In October, China's smartphone shipments were 27.88 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.10%, but an improvement from September's decline of 25.70% [11][41]. - Global semiconductor sales in October amounted to $56.88 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 22.1%, although this is a slight decrease from September's growth of 23.2% [20][24]. - The semiconductor equipment shipments from Japan saw a significant year-on-year increase of 33.46% in October, indicating a positive trend in the semiconductor equipment sector [42]. Market Performance - The report notes that during the week of December 12-18, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.46%, and the electronic industry underperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan electronic index declining by 1.76% [7][12]. - The electronic industry ranked eighth among Shenwan's primary sectors, with a PE valuation dropping to approximately 54.78 times [7][12]. Company Developments - Dongshan Precision announced plans for a targeted issuance of A-shares, aiming to raise up to 1.404 billion yuan to optimize its capital structure and reduce financial risks [5][64]. - Broadcom reported a significant increase in AI business revenue, which grew by 220% year-on-year to reach $12.2 billion, contributing to a strong stock performance [12][26]. Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor market is expected to grow by 15% in 2025, driven by demand from AI and high-performance computing (HPC), with memory segments projected to grow over 24% [55][31]. - The report highlights a recovery in the consumer electronics supply chain, with low inventory levels prompting a strong replenishment drive among domestic brands [20][41].

Group 1 - The report indicates that policy expectations are improving, leading to a rebound in the core stock indices of Shanghai and Shenzhen, despite ongoing trade frictions and technology crackdowns [3][4][44] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets is reported at 1.81 trillion, with a slight increase from the previous period's 1.71 trillion, indicating a mild rebound in stock indices [4][38] - The report recommends focusing on the retail trade sector, specifically the stock code 801200.SI, as it has seen increased support from major funds and shows no signs of adjustment [3][4][54] Group 2 - The report highlights that the main stock indices have shown a range of performance over the past five trading days, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.02% and the ChiNext Index rising by 2.18% [30][34] - It notes that the net outflow of major funds over the last five trading days was approximately 37.8 billion, indicating a trend of reduced investment in certain indices [43][44] - The report identifies that sectors such as social services and food and beverage have relatively low valuation percentiles, while sectors like construction materials and machinery have higher valuation percentiles [45][49] Group 3 - The report states that the majority of the Shenwan industry sectors are maintaining an upward trend, with the retail trade sector receiving significant capital inflow [54] - It mentions that the recent five trading days saw a concentration of limit-up stocks primarily in the machinery, media, and computer sectors, with the latest trading day showing a focus on retail trade and construction decoration [52][54] - The report emphasizes that the current market sentiment is improving due to anticipated policy adjustments, including significant interest rate cuts and increased fiscal deficits [4][44]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the electronic industry, indicating a recovery in demand and recommending attention to upstream equipment materials that are relatively independent of the industry's cyclical trends [3][16]. Core Insights - Global semiconductor equipment shipments reached $30.38 billion in Q3 2024, marking a 19% year-on-year increase and a 13% quarter-on-quarter increase [29]. - The global semiconductor sales in October 2024 amounted to $56.88 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22.1% [30]. - The expected growth for foldable smartphone shipments in 2024 is projected at 13% year-on-year, with potential market decline anticipated in 2025 [32]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.02% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.48% during the week of December 5 to December 11, 2024, with the electronic industry outperforming the market [2][7]. - The electronic sector's PE valuation increased to approximately 55.74 times [7]. Industry Data - Global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units in Q3 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.01% [2][12]. - In October, China's smartphone shipments were 27.88 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.10%, although this was an improvement from a previous decline of 25.70% [15]. Industry Dynamics - TSMC plans to begin mass production of 2nm chips next year, with a current trial yield of over 60% [28]. - The semiconductor equipment market is experiencing growth, with Japan's semiconductor equipment shipments increasing by 33.46% year-on-year in October [30]. Company Developments - Hengxuan Technology announced a cash dividend of 0.76 yuan per share for the first three quarters of 2024 [33].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall investment rating for the electronics industry [2][3][4] Core Views - The electronics industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a focus on upstream equipment and materials that benefit from domestic substitution logic, independent of the industry's cyclical fluctuations [4][19] - Android inventory is expected to gradually normalize, suggesting attention to domestic consumer electronics brands [4][19] - Semiconductor design companies are benefiting from downstream inventory replenishment, making them a key area of focus [4][19] Market Performance - The electronics sector underperformed the broader market, with the Shenwan Electronics Index falling 6.09%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.02 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 3.05 percentage points [8] - The sector's PE valuation dropped to approximately 54.93x [8] Industry Data - Global smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 reached 316 million units, up 4.01% YoY [3][15] - China's smartphone shipments in September 2024 were 23.717 million units, down 25.71% YoY [3][18] - Global semiconductor sales in September 2024 were $55.32 billion, up 23.2% YoY [3][18] - Japan's semiconductor equipment shipments in September 2024 increased by 23.40% YoY [3][18] Industry Dynamics - China's consumer-grade XR device sales in Q3 2024 fell 9.2% YoY, with total retail sales of 103,000 units, down 17.9% YoY [2][31] - Middle East smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 grew 2% YoY, reaching 12.2 million units [32] - Latin America smartphone shipments in Q3 2024 increased 10% YoY, reaching 35.1 million units [38] - During the "Double 11" shopping festival, smartphone shipments in China rebounded 26% YoY to 9.5 million units [2][41] Company Dynamics - SMIC reported a 56.4% YoY increase in Q3 2024 net profit, with revenue reaching RMB 15.609 billion, up 32.5% YoY [42] - SMIC's capacity utilization rate improved to 90.4%, with gross margin rising to 20.5% [42] Investment Recommendations - Focus on upstream equipment and materials with domestic substitution potential [4][19] - Pay attention to domestic consumer electronics brands as Android inventory normalizes [4][19] - Semiconductor design companies are recommended due to downstream inventory replenishment [4][19]

Investment Rating - The electronic industry is rated as "stronger than the market" based on the performance of the electronic index relative to the market benchmark index [45]. Core Insights - The global average selling price (ASP) of smartphones is projected to increase by 3% year-on-year in 2024, reaching $365 [35][36]. - The demand for high-end smartphones, priced over $1000, has surged, with sales increasing by 18% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 [36]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a recovery, with global sales reaching $55.32 billion in September, marking a 23.2% year-on-year increase [19][28]. Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.64% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 2.15% during the week of November 7 to November 13, 2024, with the electronic industry outperforming the market [2][7]. - The electronic index increased by 5.7%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.06 percentage points [2][7]. - In Q3 2024, global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units, reflecting a 4.01% year-on-year growth, although this is a decline from the previous quarter's growth rate of 7.58% [17][19]. Industry Dynamics - Moore Threads has completed its transformation into a joint-stock company and is preparing for an IPO, with a capital increase to 330 million yuan [31][33]. - The retail sales of smart devices in China's living room declined by 3.8% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with total sales amounting to 23.72 billion yuan [34]. - MediaTek reported a 19.4% year-on-year increase in revenue for October 2024, amounting to 51.117 billion New Taiwan dollars [37][38]. Investment Recommendations - The electronic industry is witnessing a sustained recovery in demand, with a recommendation to focus on upstream equipment and materials that are relatively independent of the industry's cyclical trends [20]. - There is an expectation for the inventory of Android devices to gradually normalize, suggesting a focus on domestic consumer electronics brands [20]. - Semiconductor design companies are expected to benefit from downstream inventory replenishment, indicating a potential investment opportunity [20].

Investment Rating - The electronic industry is rated as "stronger than the market" based on the expected performance of the industry index relative to the market benchmark index [22]. Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing a continuous recovery in demand, with a recommendation to focus on upstream equipment materials that are relatively independent of the industry's cyclical trends [3][10]. - The global tablet market saw a significant rebound, with a 20.4% year-on-year increase in shipments in Q3 2024, reaching 39.6 million units [18]. - China's internet enterprises with revenues above a certain scale reported a 2.7% year-on-year growth in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 1,270.3 billion yuan [17]. Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.6% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 3.47% during the week of October 31 to November 6, 2024, with the electronic industry outperforming the broader market [2][4]. - The electronic sector's PE ratio increased to approximately 55.31 times [4]. Industry Data - Global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units in Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.01% [8]. - In September 2024, China's smartphone shipments were 23.7 million units, showing a year-on-year decline of 25.71% [9][19]. - Global semiconductor sales in September 2024 amounted to $55.32 billion, marking a 23.2% year-on-year increase [9][14]. Company Dynamics - BOE Technology Group reported a net profit increase of 223.8% year-on-year for Q3 2024, with total revenue reaching 143.73 billion yuan [19].

Investment Rating - The electronic industry is rated as "stronger than the market" based on the expected performance of the industry index relative to the market benchmark index [23]. Core Insights - The electronic equipment industry in China experienced a revenue growth of 7.5% year-on-year from January to September 2024, with total revenue reaching 1,148.64 billion yuan [1][18]. - In the third quarter, smartphone shipments in mainland China increased by 4% year-on-year, totaling 69.1 million units, driven by seasonal demand [2][19]. - Global smartphone shipments reached 316 million units in the third quarter, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.01%, although this was a slight decline from the previous quarter's growth rate [9][10]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.11% and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.11% during the week of October 24 to October 30, 2024, while the electronic industry outperformed the broader market with a 1.3% increase in the Shenwan electronic index [2][4]. - The PE ratio for the electronic industry rose to approximately 55.70 times [4]. Industry Dynamics - The global AMOLED smartphone panel shipments grew by 25.3% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, indicating strong demand in the market [18]. - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with global semiconductor sales reaching 53.12 billion USD in August, marking a 20.6% year-on-year increase [10][18]. - The semiconductor equipment sector also saw growth, with Japan's semiconductor equipment shipments increasing by 23.4% year-on-year in September [10][18]. Company Updates - Wentech Technology reported a turnaround in profits for the third quarter, achieving a net profit of 0.415 billion yuan, compared to a loss in the previous quarter [20]. - Luxshare Precision's net profit grew by 21.88% year-on-year in the third quarter, reaching 3.679 billion yuan [21].