[table_subject] 2025 年 3 月 12 日 证券研究报告·经济数据点评 2 月外贸增速和价格指数整体偏弱 ——中山证券宏观经济数据点评 e_invest] 中山证券宏观经济组 分析师：唐晋荣 分析师编号：S0290517120002 邮箱：tangjr@zszq.com [table_main] 投资要点： 中山行业研究类模板 ● 据海关统计，2025 年前两个月，我国货物贸易（下同）进出口总值 6.54 万亿元人民币，同比（下同）下降 1.2%（与去年同期相比，今年前两个月少了 2 个工作日，剔除不可比因素影响，进出口增长 1.7%）。 ● 根据国家统计局数据，2025 年 2 月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比 下降 2.2%，环比下降 0.1%，降幅比上月均收窄 0.1 个百分点；工业生产者购 进价格同比下降 2.3%，环比下降 0.2%。1—2 月平均，工业生产者出厂价格比 上年同期下降 2.2%，工业生产者购进价格下降 2.3%。 ● 根据国家统计局数据，2025 年 2 月份，全国居民消费价格同比下降 0.7%。其中，城市下降 0.7%，农村下降 0.7%；食品价格下降 3.3% ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, with expectations of revenue growth and stable capital expenditure [3][10]. Core Insights - The company's revenue guidance for Q1 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected revenue increase of 6-8% quarter-on-quarter and a year-on-year growth of 33% based on the midpoint of the guidance [3][10]. - The demand for consumer electronics has significantly boosted the company's performance, with revenue from consumer electronics-related products reaching 20.3 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 99% [4][11]. - The company anticipates that capital expenditure for 2025 will remain stable compared to 2024, with 2024 capital expenditure recorded at 7.33 billion dollars, a slight decrease of 1.87% year-on-year [4][14]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance Guidance - The company forecasts Q1 2025 revenue to be between 6-8% higher than the previous quarter, with a gross margin expected to be between 19%-21% [3][10]. - For Q4 2024, the company reported sales revenue exceeding 2.2 billion dollars, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.7% and a year-on-year increase of 29% [3][10]. Consumer Electronics Demand - Revenue from consumer electronics products in 2024 was 20.3 billion yuan, marking a 99% increase year-on-year [4][11]. - The revenue from smartphone-related products was 14.9 billion yuan, up 37% year-on-year, while revenue from computer and tablet-related products decreased by 18% to 9 billion yuan [4][11]. - The share of consumer electronics-related products in total revenue increased from 24% in 2022 to 35% in 2024 [4][11]. Capital Expenditure - The company expects capital expenditure for 2025 to be roughly in line with 2024 levels, with 2024 capital expenditure at 7.33 billion dollars [4][14].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the company, with expectations of revenue growth and stable capital expenditure [3][4][14]. Core Viewpoints - The company's revenue guidance for Q1 2025 is expected to exceed expectations, with a projected revenue increase of 6-8% quarter-on-quarter and a year-on-year growth of 33% based on the midpoint of the guidance [3][10]. - The demand for consumer electronics has significantly boosted the company's performance, with revenue from consumer electronics-related products reaching 20.3 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 99% [4][11]. - The company anticipates that capital expenditure in 2025 will remain stable compared to 2024, with 2024 capital expenditure recorded at 7.33 billion dollars, a slight decrease of 1.87% year-on-year [4][14]. Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance Guidance - The company forecasts Q1 2025 sales revenue to be between 6-8% higher than the previous quarter, with a gross margin expected to be between 19%-21% [3][10]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported sales revenue exceeding 2.2 billion dollars, reflecting a 1.7% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 29% increase year-on-year [3][10]. Consumer Electronics Demand - Revenue from consumer electronics products is a major growth driver, with smartphone-related products generating 14.9 billion yuan, a 37% increase year-on-year [4][11]. - The share of consumer electronics-related products in total revenue increased from 24% in 2022 to 35% in 2024 [4][11]. Capital Expenditure - The company plans to maintain its capital expenditure at a similar level to 2024, with management indicating stability in external conditions [4][14].

[table_subject] 2025 年 02 月 20 日 证券研究报告·电子行业周报 机构预计下半年 NAND 市场有望供需反转 ——中山证券电子行业周报 e_invest] 中山证券研究所 分析师：葛淼 ◎行业动态：小米预计今年能保持 30%以上的增速；机构预计下半年 NAND 市场有望供需反转；格芯 2024 年收入下滑 9%。 ◎公司动态：环旭电子：2024 年净利润同比减少 15.16%。 ◎投资建议：下游手机销售量增速放缓，未来手机产业链上的消费电子和 半导体器件公司业绩超预期的可能性降低。但半导体晶圆厂的投资主要由政府 拉动，下游周期对晶圆厂投资的影响较小。同时国产设备和材料在总投资中的 占比依然较低，市场份额的提升有望推动相关上市公司业绩继续增长，建议保 持关注。 登记编号：S0290521120001 邮箱：gemiao@zszq.com 市场走势 [table_main] 投资要点： 中山行业研究类模板 ●小米预计今年能保持 30%以上的增速。2 月 14 日，小米集团创始人、董 事长兼 CEO 雷军在 2025 海淀区经济社会高质量发展大会上表示，小米在去年 重新恢复了高速增长，增 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the electronic industry, but it indicates that the electronic sector has underperformed the market, ranking fifteenth among the primary sectors [2][5]. Core Insights - Xiaomi is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 30% this year, following a recovery in 2024 with a reported revenue of 92.51 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.5% [17][18]. - The NAND flash memory market is anticipated to experience a supply-demand reversal in the second half of the year, with demand expected to shift from a slow recovery to a rapid increase by mid-2025 [20][21]. - The semiconductor industry is facing a decline in demand for consumer electronics, while demand for AI-related semiconductors remains strong, indicating a divergence in market performance [10][11]. Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.15% and the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.52% during the week of February 13 to February 19, 2025, while the electronic industry index fell by 0.25%, underperforming both indices [2][5]. - Global smartphone shipments reached 331 million units in Q4 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.72%, while China's smartphone shipments in December 2024 were 32.4 million units, up 20.8% year-on-year [2][10]. - Global semiconductor sales in December 2024 totaled $56.97 billion, marking a 17.1% year-on-year increase, although this was a decline from the previous month's growth rate of 20.7% [10][11]. Company Dynamics - GlobalFoundries reported a 9% decline in revenue for 2024, with a net income of $6.75 billion, impacted by a significant asset impairment charge [21]. - Huanxu Electronics announced a 15.16% decrease in net profit for 2024, with revenues of approximately 60.69 billion RMB, a slight decline of 0.17% [22].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance of the electronic industry, with the Shenyin Wanguo primary electronic index rising by 8.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.51 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 4.84 percentage points [3][7]. Core Insights - DeepSeek has surpassed 30 million active users, becoming the fastest application to reach this milestone [3][20]. - Global semiconductor sales are projected to grow by 19.1% year-on-year in 2024, reaching $627.6 billion, marking the first time sales exceed $600 billion [3][24]. - The electronic industry is ranked fourth among primary industries, with a PE valuation rising to approximately 59.65 times [3][7]. Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.62% and the CSI 300 Index by 3.29% during the week of February 6 to February 12 [3][7]. - The smartphone shipment in Q4 2024 reached 331 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.72%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous quarter [10][13]. - In November 2024, China's smartphone shipments were 28.19 million units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.60% [13]. Industry Dynamics - DeepSeek's user growth was significant, with 1.25 million new users in January 2025 alone, primarily in the last week without any advertising [20]. - Renesas Electronics reported a 42.9% decline in operating profit for 2024, with revenue down by 8.2% [21][23]. - MediaTek's Q4 2024 revenue increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with a consolidated operating income of 138.04 billion New Taiwan dollars [25]. Company Performance - Semiconductor manufacturer SMIC reported a 31% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 2024, with total revenue of 15.92 billion RMB [27].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance of the electronic industry, with the electronic index outperforming the market benchmarks [4][7]. Core Insights - TSMC reported a significant revenue increase of 57.8% year-on-year for December 2024, with total revenue for the year reaching approximately 28943.08 billion NTD, a 33.9% increase compared to the previous year [3][23]. - MediaTek's revenue for December 2024 decreased by 4.57% year-on-year, with total revenue for the year at 5305.86 billion NTD, reflecting a 22.41% increase from the previous year [3][21]. - The global smartphone shipment for Q4 2024 was 331 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.72%, indicating a slowdown compared to previous quarters [10][13]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a mixed demand landscape, with consumer electronics demand slowing down domestically, while AI-related semiconductor demand remains strong internationally [13][14]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The electronic industry index increased by 2.15% during the week of January 9 to January 15, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.25 percentage points [4][7]. - The PE ratio for the electronic industry rose to approximately 53.99 times [4][7]. Industry Data - Global semiconductor sales in November 2024 reached 57.82 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [4][13]. - Japan's semiconductor equipment shipments increased by 35.18% year-on-year in November 2024 [4][13]. Company Dynamics - Transsion Holdings reported a total stock buyback of approximately 12.68 million RMB by its executives [26]. - Apple Inc.'s rating was downgraded to "sell" by MoffettNathanson, citing concerns over iPhone sales and other negative news impacting the stock [24].

[table_subject] 2025 年 01 月 09 日 证券研究报告·电子行业周报 苹果天猫旗舰店 iPhone 全线降价 ——中山证券电子行业周报 e_invest] 中山证券研究所 分析师：葛淼 登记编号：S0290521120001 邮箱：gemiao@zszq.com 市场走势 [table_main] 投资要点： 中山行业研究类模板 ●苹果天猫旗舰店 iPhone 全线降价。天猫官方 1 月 4 日发布微博，称苹 果天猫官方旗舰店公布年货节政策，全线产品开启官方惊喜直降，iPhone 至高 直降 1000 元，并支持 12 期免息和以旧换新补贴。《iPhone16 成苹果系列降价 最快机型》成为热议话题，阅读量 254.8 万。 ●微软计划在 2025 财年投入 800 亿美元用于 AI 智算中心建设。当地时间 1 月 3 日，微软在博客文章中宣布了一项雄心勃勃的计划：在 2025 财年投资 800 亿美元，用于建设能够支持人工智能运算需求的数据中心。 ◎回顾本周行情（1 月 2 日-1 月 8 日），本周上证综指下跌 3.63%，沪深 300 指数下跌 3.7%。电子行业表现强于大市。申 ...

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic growth is expected to remain stable at 3.2% in 2025, consistent with 2024 levels, but below the pre-pandemic 20-year average of 3.8%[7] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine are expected to ease, potentially reducing adverse impacts on the global economy[7] - Trump's potential policy shifts, including tariffs and domestic reforms, could significantly impact global trade and economic growth[9][11] China's Macroeconomic Performance - In 2024, China's economy was driven by strong external demand, with export growth significantly higher than in 2019 and 2023, while domestic demand remained weak[2][15] - Real estate investment and private sector investment were sluggish, with retail sales growth also underperforming, indicating weak domestic consumption[15][17] - China's GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2025, reflecting ongoing economic challenges[8] Policy and Reform Outlook - The 2024 Central Economic Work Conference signaled a shift toward more proactive fiscal and monetary policies, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing the economy[38] - Key policy measures include increasing fiscal deficit ratios, issuing long-term special bonds, and implementing targeted monetary easing to support economic growth[38] - Reforms aimed at boosting domestic consumption, stabilizing employment, and enhancing the service sector are critical for 2025's economic recovery[17][32] Risks and Uncertainties - External risks include potential disruptions from Trump's trade policies and global geopolitical tensions, which could negatively impact China's export-driven growth[9][11] - Domestic risks involve weak consumer confidence, a sluggish real estate market, and structural challenges in transitioning to new growth drivers[17][32]

邮箱：yangjianhui@zszq.com WIND 全 A 量价及中期走势图 市场情绪持续弱化，强化沪深股指形态 ——金工策略周报 2025 年第 01 期 e_invest] 中山证券研究所 分析师：阳建辉 登记编号：S0290518040001 相关研究报告 [table_subject] 2025 年 01 月 02 日 证券研究报告·金工策略周报（总第 309 期） 3. 政策预期发酵，股指横盘中反弹 2024-12-12 4. 市场情绪偏谨慎，沪深股指维持调整 2024-12-05 [table_main] 投资要点： 中山行业研究类模板 ●政策真空期与市场情绪持续弱化，强化沪深股指下跌形态。贸易摩擦与 高科技打压等外部冲击持续，政策真空期下的宽松预期、市场情绪持续弱化， 强化沪深股指横盘或下跌形态。 ●本期推荐银行【801780.SI】等行业。申万一级行业以横盘或下跌形态 为主，银行虽受主力资金小幅减持、但上涨形态尚在。 ◎ 市场走势预判：其一，沪深两市日均交易额 1.33 万亿，最新值 1.36 万 亿，前 1 期 1.43 万亿；沪深两市核心股指量能持续收缩，形态以下跌或横盘为 主。其二 ...