| 代码 | 简称 | 7月14日涨跌幅 | 最新融资余额 | 较上一日增加 | 占流通市值比例 | 所属行 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （%） | （万元） | （万元） | （%） | 业 | | 430139 | 华岭股 份 | -1.22 | 8037.35 | 578.32 | 1.19 | 电子 | | 831039 | 国义招 | 18.33 | 1128.35 | 521.75 | 0.34 | 社会服 | | | 标 | | | | | 务 | | 831396 | 许昌智 | 4.42 | 2677.20 | 446.00 | 1.53 | 电力设 | | | 能 | | | | | 备 | | 873152 | 天宏锂 | 5.73 | 978.57 | 428.09 | 0.71 | 电力设 | | | 电 | | | | | 备 | | 920002 | 万达轴 | 7.36 | 5130.02 | 426.19 | 1.23 | 机械设 | | | 承 | | | | | 备 | | 873593 | 鼎智 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 新高确认牛市全面启动——策略周聚焦 ❖ 本轮放量新高，战略视角看 4 月关税冲击更类似假摔。 近三周 A 股放量新高，上证指数点位相继突破了 2024/12/10 及 11/8 的高点， 成交持续放量。火热行情下投资者也有疑虑：1-2 个月战术视角看抢出口效应 退坡，Q3 基本面可能回落；但站在 3-6 月甚至年度的战略视角审视本轮新高， 指数延续了 924 以来的牛市行情，4 月初关税更多体现为假摔：市场经历 4 月 初的短期快速下行后，用两个月逐渐修复失地。假摔不止于中国资产，全球主 要股票指数均显著修复失地，关税对经济冲击没有预期强。 ❖ 如何理解关税假摔：特朗普嘴炮+贸易战对经济冲击历史样本下均有限 （1）特朗普对于关税更多是嘴炮行为，其实际行动并不如 4/2 宣布加征时的 态度强硬。主要体现在初始的关税制定方式粗暴且后续未执行、税率降幅显著 且可谈判、实施期限的持续延期。（2）1930 年贸易战样本中并没有观测到明 显的贸易战对经济量价冲击。从量上看，美国 1930 大萧条期间净出口对经济 的拖累远小于国内消费和投资的萎缩。从价格看，贸易战未显著抬升逆差国英 法 ...

Q&A 财报季如何把握投资机会？20250613 特朗普政府最新的关税政策对全球市场的影响如何？ 摘要 特朗普政府的关税政策包括对等关税、232 行业调查和反倾销关税，服 务于不同目的，未来谈判进展及下调可能性各不相同。对等关税方面， 美国灵活处理，旨在加速经贸谈判，而非实质性落地高额关税。 232 行业调查涉及铜、钢铁、铝、汽车等十大类产品，加征 25%-50% 关税，总规模约 3,000-4,000 亿美元。新一轮调查涉及铜、木材、半导 体等，规模约 6,500 亿美元，占总进口 20%，这些产品更可能通过单 一国家让步获得豁免。 美国以芬太尼为由对中国加征 20%关税，对加拿大和墨西哥加征 25%。符合 USMAC 协议的加墨产品可部分减免。芬太尼关税旨在打压 中国制造业，并作为中美谈判筹码。 美国关税政策对中国制造业的影响体现在对等关税、232 行业关税和芬 太尼关税上。232 关税服务于制造业回流政策，难以通过国与国谈判豁 免，可能先加征再谈判。中美围绕禁毒合作出现积极信号，8 月或有进 一步磋商。 光大证券策略组预测，2025 年中报季轻工制造、有色金属、非银金融、 电子、社会服务行业净利润增速预 ...

【 摘要 】中信证券裘翔等指出，目前的市场环境和氛围有一些2014年底的影子。招商基金表 示，中长期债市仍值得看好，但短期利率下行趋势或放缓。 一、焦点锐评 1．中国6月CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后首转涨 7月9日，国家统计局发布数据，中国6月CPI同比上涨0.1%，为连续下降4个月后转涨；核心CPI继 续回升，同比上涨0.7%，创14个月新高。6月PPI环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同，同比下降 3.6%，降幅比上月扩大0.3个百分点。CPI由降转涨主要受工业消费品价格有所回升影响。工业消 费品价格同比降幅由上月的1.0%收窄至0.5%，对CPI同比的下拉影响比上月减少约0.18个百分 点。 【解读】下半年，财政补贴力度可能有所减小，耐用消费品对核心商品价格的支撑或将减弱，结 合居住价格处于低位，预计核心通胀下行压力仍较大，下半年低通胀格局或将延续。PPI仍待"反 内卷"发力，部分行业效果初步显现。当前我国名义利率降至历史低位，不过低通胀使得实际利 率仍然偏高，结合当前基准利率明显高于存款利率，国内政策利率下调空间仍然较大。 二、权益市场 1.中泰证券：资金驱动，科技进攻 中泰证券中期策略展望 ...

2025 年 07 月 13 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周北证 50 小幅上涨，北矿检测上会 ——北交所行业周报 最近一年走势 | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 北证 | 50 | -0.50% | 12.29% | 110.56% | | 沪深 | 300 | 3.86% | 7.49% | 17.09% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 实现领涨、广信 科技上市，下周锦华新材上会（推荐）*中小盘*罗 琨》——2025-06-30 《北交所行业周报：近期北证 50 指数呈震荡回调， 下周奥美森上会（推荐）*中小盘*罗琨》—— 2025-06-23 《北交所行业周报：本周北交所放量下跌、交大铁 发正式上市，下周广信科技申购（推荐）*中小盘* 罗琨》——2025-06-16 《北交所行业周报：北证专精特新指数即将发布 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market's strength has led to short-term adjustment pressure on the bond market, resulting in a passive narrowing of credit spreads, particularly in short-duration bonds, with 1-year credit spreads across various ratings narrowing by 5-7 basis points [1][4] - The report highlights that the overall turnover rate of credit bonds has decreased from 2.36% to 2.21%, reflecting a reduction in market trading activity, with the weighted average transaction duration slightly increasing from 2.8 years to 2.9 years [2] - Fund managers are maintaining an allocation to credit bonds, although the intensity has weakened, with a shift towards shorter-duration bonds, while insurance companies have increased their net purchases of long-duration credit bonds [3] Group 2 - The report suggests that despite the stock market's upward pressure on the bond market, there remains a potential for short-term volatility, and it recommends a strategy of selectively increasing positions during adjustments rather than aggressively chasing gains [4] - The report notes that the average yield of credit bonds has generally increased, with the 3-year and 5-year credit bonds showing significant upward movement, particularly in lower-rated municipal bonds [10][17] - The report identifies specific sectors such as steel and coal that may benefit from the "anti-involution" policy, indicating potential opportunities in industry bonds [4]

反内卷新思路创造高低切挖掘方向，产能投放基本完毕低估值低预期且兼备红利属性的下游品牌或者代工行业的机会， 竞争格局改善的红利+标的。 临近中报季，前期预期提升较高的大部分内需新消费公司都面临收入增速较快与竞争加剧下费用投放高企导致利润增 速与预期相比的压力。很多依赖开店增速的新消费公司上半年速度较为一般下半年可加速。可能全年预期要得以修正， 延续 Q3 调整或者横盘，Q4 景气度维持比较不错情况下有望继续向新高切换。并且注重老树新芽公司通过产生更高质 量利润提供估值进一步上行的空间，在中报期后布局。把握赔率较高或前期涨幅不大且有业绩兑现的新消费龙头。 出海利空逐步兑现完毕，延续从 1.0 的信息差出海 beta 向 2.0 品牌出海 alpha 的选股逻辑，积极寻找品牌力升维的 2.0 出海公司可能中报超预期，以及绑定龙头的代工出海公司的长期机会。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 轻工制造：①新型烟草（稳健向上）：海外雾化电子烟合规市场扩容趋势明确，HNB 行业成长态势清晰，英 美烟草份额有望提升，继续重点布局切入其产业链的思摩尔国际。②家居（底部企稳）：建议重点关注底部 反转型或具备自身α企业。③造纸（底部企 ...

2025 年 07 月 11 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 张 翔（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790121070009 苏 良（分析师） 证书编号：S0790121070008 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 蒋 韬（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525070001 恒生科技板块的资金行为监测 ——金融工程定期 | 魏建榕（分析师） | 苏俊豪（分析师） | | --- | --- | | weijianrong@kysec.cn | sujunhao@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519120001 | 证书编号：S0790522020001 | sujunhao@kyse ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) for Q2 2025 is reported at 89.1, a decrease of 0.4 points from the previous quarter, but higher than the levels in 2023 and 2024. Overall, costs for SMEs have slightly decreased [1]. Industry Summary - The wholesale and retail industry index remained stable at 89.0, while seven other industries, including construction, transportation, real estate, social services, information transmission, and accommodation and catering, saw declines in their indices [2][3]. - The overall index for Q2 2025 is 89.1, down from 89.5 in Q1 2025, with all sub-indices showing a decrease, including macroeconomic sentiment, comprehensive operation, market, cost, funding, labor, input, and efficiency indices [4][5]. Regional Summary - The indices for the eastern, central, and western regions are 90.1, 89.7, and 88.6 respectively, all showing declines from the previous quarter, while the northeastern region saw a slight increase of 0.1 points to 81.5 [4]. Key Characteristics of SMEs - Business confidence is low, with the macroeconomic sentiment index at 98.2, down 0.8 points from the previous quarter, reflecting a decline across all surveyed industries [5]. - Market demand is contracting, as indicated by a market index of 81.2, which is a decrease of 0.3 points from the previous quarter [5]. - Funding conditions are tightening, with the funding index at 100.6, down 0.2 points, and six out of eight industries reporting declines in their funding indices [5]. - Labor supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, with the labor index at 105.9, down 0.1 points, and seven industries reporting a drop in labor demand [5]. - Investment willingness among enterprises is declining, with the input index at 82.3, down 0.6 points, particularly in construction, social services, and accommodation and catering sectors [5]. - Costs for enterprises have slightly decreased, with the cost index at 111.8, down 0.2 points, although the wholesale and retail sector saw a slight increase in costs [5]. - Efficiency has also declined, with the efficiency index at 74.2, down 0.3 points, and six industries reporting a decrease in their efficiency indices [6].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.36% as of the morning close, with a trading volume of 783.11 million shares and a transaction amount of 934.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.50% compared to the previous trading day [1] Industry Performance - Real estate, banking, and oil & petrochemicals sectors showed the highest gains, with increases of 1.53%, 1.42%, and 1.23% respectively [1] - The automotive, defense, and electronics sectors experienced the largest declines, with decreases of 0.93%, 0.92%, and 0.76% respectively [2] Leading Stocks - In the real estate sector, Yuhua Development led with a gain of 9.94% [1] - In the banking sector, Minsheng Bank rose by 5.12% [1] - In the oil & petrochemicals sector, *ST Xinchao increased by 5.08% [1] - In the steel sector, Jinling Mining surged by 10.02% [1] - In the non-bank financial sector, Nanhua Futures also rose by 10.02% [1] - In the pharmaceutical sector, Qianyuan Pharmaceutical saw a significant increase of 19.98% [1] Sector Summary - The real estate sector had a transaction amount of 117.03 billion yuan, up 26.74% from the previous day [1] - The banking sector recorded a transaction amount of 266.82 billion yuan, up 36.61% [1] - The oil & petrochemicals sector had a transaction amount of 80.95 billion yuan, up 36.47% [1] - The automotive sector had a transaction amount of 389.36 billion yuan, down 16.50% [2] - The defense sector recorded a transaction amount of 316.85 billion yuan, down 23.79% [2] - The electronics sector had a transaction amount of 1,036.63 billion yuan, down 10.88% [2]