Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or companies discussed [2]. Core Insights - April core CPI rose by 0.29% month-over-month, which is 1 basis point below consensus expectations and represents the slowest pace since December. The year-on-year rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 3.6%, aligning with expectations. The report indicates a disinflationary composition, with primary rent measures slowing to a 31-month low and declines in both new and used car prices [7][12]. - Core retail sales declined by 0.3% in April, contrary to consensus expectations for a 0.1% increase. Headline spending remained unchanged, which was below expectations for a moderate increase. Auto sales decreased by 0.8%, while gas station sales rose by 3.1% [9][12]. - The Empire manufacturing index fell by 1.3 points to -15.6, against consensus expectations for an increase. The underlying components showed mixed results, with declines in new orders and employment, while shipments increased [11][12]. Summary by Sections Inflation Metrics - The April core CPI increased by 0.29% month-over-month, with a year-on-year rate of 3.6%. The report highlighted a significant slowdown in primary rent measures and declines in car prices, contributing to a disinflationary trend [7][8]. - The core PCE price index is estimated to have risen by 0.25% in April, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.77% [8]. Retail Sales - Core retail sales saw a decline of 0.3% in April, with various categories experiencing mixed performance. Notably, sales in sporting goods and health and personal care decreased, while clothing and accessory stores saw an increase of 1.6% [9][12]. - The retail sales report was weaker than expected, prompting a reduction in Q2 GDP tracking estimates by 0.4 percentage points to 3.0% [12]. Manufacturing Index - The Empire manufacturing index decreased to -15.6, with declines in new orders and employment components, while shipments showed a slight increase. The volatility of this index has been noted since 2022 [11][12].

证券研究报告 行业研究｜汽车 2024年05月14日 汽车行业 2024 年 4 月产销数据跟踪：出口环比继 续增长，自主品牌乘用车新能源零售渗透率增至 66.8% [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点： 投资评级： 看好 （维持） 1.总产销：4月季节性下滑，同比仍实现9%以上增长。4月，汽车产销240.6 市场表现 万辆/ 235.9万辆，同比+12.8%/+9.3%，环比-10.5%/-12.5%。1-4月，汽 汽车 沪深300 车产销量累计完成901.2万辆/907.9万辆，同比+7.9%/+10.2%。 20% 13% 2.出口：延续增长态势，环比3月继续小幅增长。4月，汽车出口50.4万 6% -1% 辆，同比+34%，环比+0.4%。1-4月，累计出口182.7万辆，同比+33.4%， -9% 其中新能源汽车占比 22.6%。分车企：奇瑞超过上汽排名重回首位，广汽 -16% 出口增速最高，同比增长5.5倍，比亚迪（4.1万辆，+192.9%）、特斯拉 -23% -30% （3.1万辆，+158.3% ...

图8 4 月新增人民币贷款（亿元） 资料来源：Wind，联储证券研究院 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 图9 表内票据冲量同比多增（亿元） 居民-中长期 居民-短期 企业-中长期 企业-短期 企业-票据 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 -10000 资料来源：Wind，联储证券研究院 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 7 宏观经济点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|------------------------------------|--------------------------|------------|----- ...

证券研究报告 行业研究｜汽车 2024年05月14日 汽车行业 2024 年 4 月产销数据跟踪：出口环比继 续增长，自主品牌乘用车新能源零售渗透率增至 66.8% [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点： 投资评级： 看好 （维持） 1.总产销：4月季节性下滑，同比仍实现9%以上增长。4月，汽车产销240.6 市场表现 万辆/ 235.9万辆，同比+12.8%/+9.3%，环比-10.5%/-12.5%。1-4月，汽 汽车 沪深300 车产销量累计完成901.2万辆/907.9万辆，同比+7.9%/+10.2%。 20% 13% 2.出口：延续增长态势，环比3月继续小幅增长。4月，汽车出口50.4万 6% -1% 辆，同比+34%，环比+0.4%。1-4月，累计出口182.7万辆，同比+33.4%， -9% 其中新能源汽车占比 22.6%。分车企：奇瑞超过上汽排名重回首位，广汽 -16% 出口增速最高，同比增长5.5倍，比亚迪（4.1万辆，+192.9%）、特斯拉 -23% -30% （3.1万辆，+158.3% ...

证券研究报告 行业研究｜养殖业 2024年04月26日 24Q1 猪肉行业跟踪：拨云见日，至暗已过 [Table_Author] 易碧归 分析师 Email:yibigui@lczq.com 证书:S1320523020003 投资要点： 投资评级： 看好 （维持） 猪肉产业链景气度持续提升，建议关注生猪养殖企业的业绩改善机会。截 市场表现 至24年4月25日，生猪养殖板块近6月涨幅达24.2%，相对上证A股 养殖业 沪深300 有15%以上超额收益。产业链上游的饲料与种猪市场平稳发展，生猪养殖 10% 的成本压力有所缓解，暂无超预期动物疫病影响；下游屠宰旺季暂歇，但 4% -1% 经济复苏持续，猪肉价格有望企稳回升；中游生猪养殖行业至暗时刻已 -7% 过，在养殖成本下降和出栏价格上涨的双驱动下，可期业绩改善。 -13% -19% 经过近一年的市场博弈，时间积蓄合力，猪周期上行趋势未变。上行周期 -24% -30% 时点推后一年，主因是受供给端市场内部博弈（详情可参考2023.4.21行 4/26 7/8 9/19 12/1 2/12 4/25 业深度报告）、规模化养殖优势显现，需求端消费复苏偏缓，可替代品价 ...

Employment Data Summary - In April, the U.S. added 175,000 non-farm jobs, with an unemployment rate of 3.9%, indicating a stronger-than-expected slowdown in the labor market[2] - Bloomberg's consensus expected 240,000 new jobs, while the previous month's figure was revised up to 315,000 from 303,000[2][8] - The labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.7%, with an increase of 87,000 in the labor force[8] Market Impact - The weak employment data has stabilized market confidence in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the probability of a rate cut in September rising from 61% to 70%[3][32] - Following the employment report, U.S. stocks strengthened, and both the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields declined, indicating a rebound in market risk appetite[2][8] Sector Performance - Job growth in the service sector was 153,000, down from 204,000, with healthcare and education contributing 95,000 jobs, the largest increase[9][55] - The goods-producing sector saw a significant decline, adding only 14,000 jobs compared to 39,000 previously, with mining and logging losing 3,000 jobs[9][55] Wage Trends - The average hourly wage increased by 0.2% month-over-month to $34.75, with a year-over-year growth rate of 3.9%, down from 4.1%[38][62] - Wage growth in the goods sector fell to 5.07%, while the service sector's wage growth decreased to 3.69%[38][62] Broader Economic Indicators - The broader unemployment rate (U6) rose to 7.4%, indicating a growing number of individuals working part-time for economic reasons, suggesting a decline in job quality[29] - Job openings have continued to decline, with the latest JOLTS data showing a vacancy rate of 5.1%, reflecting a cooling demand in the labor market[13][14]

Economic Growth - The actual GDP growth rate for the US in Q1 2024 was 1.6%, below the expected 2.5%[50] - Consumption remained the largest contributor to GDP growth, with a contribution of 1.68%[67] - Private investment contributed 0.56% to GDP, while net exports negatively impacted growth by -0.86%[67] Inflation and Prices - The PCE price index rebounded to 3.4% year-on-year in Q1 2024, up from 1.7% in the previous quarter[50] - Core PCE inflation was reported at 3.7%, significantly exceeding the expected 3.4%[53] - The increase in inflation raises concerns about potential stagflation risks in the US economy[50] Trade and Exports - US imports increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, while exports decreased by 0.9%[2] - The net export contribution to GDP was -0.86%, indicating a drag on economic growth from trade deficits[50] Government Spending - Federal government spending decreased by 1.2% in Q1 2024, down from a previous increase of 4.6%[5] - Defense spending fell by 0.6%, while non-defense spending increased by 0.3%[5] Consumer Behavior - Personal consumption grew by 2.5% in Q1 2024, down from 3.3% in the previous quarter[34] - Service consumption had the highest contribution to personal consumption, at 1.78%[41] - Durable goods consumption showed negative growth of -0.09%, primarily due to rising oil prices and weak automotive demand[34]

Revenue and Budget Performance - In the first three months of 2024, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 6.08 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of -2.3%[23] - The general public budget revenue's two-year compound growth rate was -0.94%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to previous periods[34] - Government fund revenue showed a negative growth rate, with land transfer income down by 17.5% year-on-year, reflecting a sluggish real estate market[13] Tax Revenue Insights - Tax revenue in the first quarter of 2024 had a year-on-year growth rate of -4.9%, with a two-year compound growth rate of -3.2%[34] - Domestic value-added tax grew by 7.1% year-on-year, but the two-year compound growth rate was only 2.1%, indicating a recovery trend[27] - Corporate income tax showed a year-on-year growth of 1% and a two-year compound growth rate of 5.06%, suggesting improvement in corporate operations[27] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in the first quarter increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a completion rate of 24.6%[35] - Central government expenditure grew by 10.5%, while local government expenditure only increased by 1.9%, indicating a disparity in spending growth rates[35] - Infrastructure spending remains robust, reflecting ongoing fiscal policy support for the economy[35] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The government work report emphasizes an active fiscal policy, with plans for increased deficit and special bond issuance to stimulate the economy[16] - The issuance of local special bonds is expected to accelerate in the second quarter, as the current pace is slower than anticipated[16]

证券研究报告 行业研究｜汽车 2024年04月11日 汽车行业 2024 年 3 月产销数据跟踪：出口数据创 历史新高，新车型叠加降价潮下 4 月市场有望延 续良好态势 [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com 证书:S1320523080001 投资要点： 投资评级： 看好 （维持） 1.总产销：节后降价潮开启叠加新车型上市，一季度累计产销实现开门红。 市场表现 经过1-2月的销量低谷期，3月环比增长显著。3月，汽车产销268.7万辆 汽车 沪深300 / 269.4万辆，同比+4%/+9.9%，环比+78.4%/+70.2%。1-3月，汽车产销 20% 660.6万辆/672万辆，同比+6.4%/+10.6%。 13% 6% -1% 2.出口：3月数据创历史新高，比亚迪、吉利增速显著。3月，汽车出口50.2 -9% 万辆，同比+37.9%，环比+33%，超越2023年12月数据（49.9万辆）创 -16% 历史新高；新能源汽车出口 12.4 万辆，同比+59.4%，环比+52%，占比 -23% -30% 24.7%，环比2月+2.95pct。1-3月，新能源 ...

宏观经济点评 2024 年 04 月 15 日 3 月金融数据点评：社融增速接近底部区域，二季度有望边际改善 [Table_Author] 沈夏宜 分析师 陈国文 研究助理 证书:S1320523020004 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 投资要点： 社融增速续降。3 月新增社融 4.87 万亿（wind 一致预期 4.11 万亿），高 基数下同比少增 5142 亿，社融存量增速环比回落 0.3 个百分点至 8.7%。 信贷同比少增，政府债供给偏慢是拖累社融增速的主因。 企业、居民贷款双双走弱。金融机构当月新增人民币贷款 3.09 万亿，同 比少增 8000 亿。①企业部门当月新增 2.34 万亿，同比少增 3600 亿。企 业短贷同比少增。一是去年同期基数偏高；二是中票、短融净融资规模同 比多增，对企业短贷有一定"挤出"；三是产成品库存低位徘徊，企业资 金周转需求偏弱。企业中长贷再度同比少增。一是在"盘活存量"、"避免 资金沉淀空转"政策基调下，信贷投放更加注重质量和结构，高基数下同 比少增；二是 3 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.8% ...