GDP Performance - In Q3, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.6%, a slight decline from 5.3% in Q2 and 5.0% in Q1[9] - The nominal GDP growth rate was 4.0%, down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter[9] - The GDP deflator index was -0.5%, indicating a narrowing decline compared to previous quarters[9] Industrial Production - The industrial capacity utilization rate increased to 75.1% in Q3, up from 74.9% in Q2[13] - In September, the industrial added value growth rate rebounded to 5.4%, reversing the slowdown trend observed since Q1[14] - The growth in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry was a major driver, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.1%[14] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth in September was 3.4%, returning to the economic range seen in Q2[19] - Broad infrastructure investment saw a cumulative growth rate of 9.3%, significantly up by 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[19] - Real estate investment growth improved to -9.4%, marking the first time it fell below 10% since Q1[20] Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth in September was 3.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[29] - Excluding automobile sales, retail sales growth reached 3.6%, up by 0.3 percentage points[29] - The "trade-in" policy significantly boosted consumer spending, with household appliance sales growing by 20.5% in September[29]

Revenue Insights - From January to September, general public budget revenue decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, primarily due to last year's tax relief policies[1] - Tax revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 5.3%, marking a continuous negative growth trend[2] - Non-tax revenue increased by 13.5% year-on-year, showing an expanded growth compared to previous values[2] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure grew by 2% year-on-year, with a completion rate of 70.7%[2] - Central government expenditure increased by 8.4%, while local government expenditure only rose by 1%[2] - The ratio of general public budget expenditure to revenue reached 123.7%, indicating a relatively high level compared to the past five years[2] Government Fund Performance - Land transfer revenue fell by 24.6% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate market[3] - Government fund income decreased by 20.2% year-on-year, continuing a trend of negative growth[3] - The completion rate for new special bonds issued by local governments reached 92.5%, significantly higher than previous values[3] Policy Outlook - Multiple favorable policies have been introduced, with expectations for their effects to gradually materialize[3] - The central bank has implemented structural monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and easing mortgage rates[3] - The government aims to achieve its annual growth targets through enhanced monetary and fiscal policy adjustments[3]

证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2024 年 10 月 25 日 9 月外贸数据点评：增速不及预期，出口或维持低 位增长 [Table_Author] 魏争 分析师 Email:weizheng@lczq.com 证书:S1320524100001 投资要点： 总体看，出口增速均不及预期。出口方面，9 月出口同比增速 2.4%，低 于市场预期 5.9%。一是台风天等极端天气影响所致。二是去年同期基数 有所抬升，对出口形成一定拖累。三是全球制造业景气度下降，外需走弱 趋势延续。 分地区看，我国对新兴经济体出口强于发达经济体。我国对发达地区出口 降幅较大，对东盟地区出口降幅较小，对俄罗斯出口延续强劲态势。其 中，对欧盟地区、日本、韩国出口增速降幅较大，对美国降幅相对较窄。 我国对东盟出口增速延续二季度以来的放缓趋势；对俄罗斯出口增速维持 较高水平。十大出口地区中，东盟地区对出口拉动最大，日韩印形成拖 累。 分产品看，机电产品、金属资本品支撑出口。机电产品是出口最大拉动项 目；高技术产品、消费品及非金属资本品和中间品对出口形成不同程度拖 累。具体看，汽车、船舶为机电产品出口增速最大贡献项；手机出口增速 转负，形成拖累。 ...

Economic Overview - Japan's economy has undergone significant changes since 1946, experiencing phases of prosperity, decline, and recovery, categorized into six stages[6] - The period from 1946 to 1973 saw Japan's GDP growth averaging around 10% annually, with a capital accumulation rate peaking at 39%[12][14] - The "Lost Two Decades" from 1990 to 2011 resulted in stagnant economic growth, with the Nikkei 225 index declining by 11.04% from 1990 to 1997[43][75] Policy and Economic Strategies - The "Abenomics" policy from 2012 to 2019 included aggressive monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and structural reforms, leading to a recovery in the stock market with a growth rate of 12.46%[82] - Japan's government debt reached approximately 227% of GDP by 2023, reflecting extensive fiscal measures to stimulate the economy[88] Market Trends and Asset Performance - From 1974 to 2023, the annualized return for Japanese stocks (Nikkei 225) was 4.19%, while U.S. stocks (S&P 500) led with 8.09%[95] - In the period from 2020 to 2023, Japanese stocks achieved a cumulative return of 9.06%, benefiting from a recovery in the economy and favorable monetary policies[93] External Influences - The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a significant influx of foreign direct investment into Japan, with net inflows of $626 billion in 2020, $352 billion in 2021, and $493 billion in 2022[89] - Japan's economic recovery post-pandemic has been supported by stable PMI readings, indicating a resilient manufacturing and service sector[88] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include discrepancies in economic data, underperformance of the Japanese economy, and unexpected macroeconomic policy changes[98] - The Bank of Japan's recent shift to a tightening monetary policy may impact market dynamics, necessitating close monitoring of economic indicators and corporate performance[97]

证券研究报告 行业研究｜电子 2024 年 10 月 23 日 射频前端行业深度：增长动能形成合力，国产替 代条件充足 证书:S1320523080001 [Table_Author] 刘浩 分析师 王竞萱 研究助理 Email:liuhao3@lczq.com Email:wangjingxuan1@lczq.com | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The report upgrades TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) to Overweight from Neutral, indicating a positive outlook due to a de-risked portfolio and significant discount to book value [3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for Residential Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (MREITs) as they are expected to benefit from falling interest rates and potential spread tightening, while caution remains for Commercial MREITs due to elevated credit risks [12][13]. - Residential MREITs are positioned to see immediate benefits from lower rates, with a positive duration gap that could enhance book value, although prepayment risks are increasing [2][12]. - Commercial MREITs are expected to experience a slower recovery, facing challenges with troubled loans and non-accruals, which may keep valuations under pressure [2][13]. Summary by Sections Rating Changes - TRTX has significantly de-risked its portfolio, achieving a 100% performing status, and is trading at a discount to book value, leading to an upgrade to Overweight [3][11]. Sector Summary - Residential MREITs are viewed positively due to their long-duration assets and potential for income from dividend yields, while Commercial MREITs face a cautious outlook with risks outweighing potential value [12][13]. Coverage Summary - AGNC maintains an Overweight rating as it is expected to recover book value with a focus on Agency MBS, while NLY also maintains Overweight due to favorable positioning for lower rates [14][15]. - TWO is rated Neutral due to lingering uncertainty affecting its price-to-book value multiple, while ABR is rated Underweight due to a premium to book value amidst a deteriorating credit environment [18][19]. Company Previews – Residential MREITs - AGNC reported a tangible book value per share (TBVPS) of $9.48, exceeding consensus estimates, and faces elevated prepayment risk due to its high-coupon MBS concentration [41][42]. - NLY also reported a TBVPS of $21.00, benefiting from spread tightening, and is expected to maintain a mid-teens dividend yield supported by levered returns on Agency MBS [43][44].

Inflation Data - The U.S. CPI for September increased by 2.4% year-on-year, slightly above the expected 2.3% and down from the previous 2.5%[1] - Core CPI rose by 3.3% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3.2% and matching the previous value[1] - The CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month, in line with the previous month and above the expected 0.1%[1] Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly higher than the expected 150,000 and the previous month's 159,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.2%[1] - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.7%[1] Market Implications - The strong employment data has led the market to rule out the possibility of a 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, with expectations shifting to two 25 basis points cuts in November and December[2] - The CPI data further reinforced the market's expectation of a gradual rate cut path by the Federal Reserve[2] Risks - There are risks associated with unexpected changes in the U.S. economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy that could impact these forecasts[2]

Deutsche Bank Research Distributed on: 11/10/2024 20:36:08 GMT 7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa Fed Watcher: Officials support gradual easing path after close call in September Amy Yang Economist (+1) 212 250 9959 | amy.yang@db.com Matthew Luzzetti Chief US Economist (+1) 212 250 6161 | matthew.luzzetti@db.com Brett Ryan Senior Economist (+1) 212 250 6294 | brett.ryan@db.com Justin Weidner Economist (+1) 212 469 1679 | justin-s.weidner@db.com Avik Chattopadhyay Research Associate avik-a.chattopadhyay@db.com October 11, 202 ...

宏观经济点评 证券研究报告 2024年10月16日 9月金融数据点评:政策转向后,金融数据有望企稳 沈夏宜 分析师 Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 证书:S1320523020004 陈国文 分析师 Email:chenguowen@lczq.com 证书:S1320524070001 投资要点: 社融存量增速再度回落。9月新增社融 3.76 万亿,同比少增 3692 亿,社 融存量增速环比回落 0.1 个百分点至 8.0%。结构上看,社融仍然延续了 5 月以来的结构特征,政府债同比多增是主要支撑项,人民币贷款同比少增 是主要拖累项。 企业、居民部门信贷同比均少增。企业部门新增短贷 4600亿,同比少增 1086 亿;新增中长期贷款 9600亿,同比少增 2944 亿;从企业短贷来 看,前期"挤水分"影响或边际减弱。9月企业短贷新增规模已修复至过 去五年均值。从企业中长贷来看,当前企业中长期融资需求仍然偏弱。 "融资-投资-生产-销售"的正循环仍然不畅。居民部门新增短期贷款 2700 亿,同比少增 515 亿;新增中长期贷款 2300 亿,同比少增 3170 亿。从居民短贷来看,当月居民短贷 ...

M Global Idea Podcast | Thoughts on the Market October 7, 2024 08:42 AM GMT Why the Fed's Next Move May Matter Less Following the US Federal Reserve's September rate cut, labor data may have more impact on markets than further cuts. Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research, explains why. Play Audio Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Andrew Sheets Strategist Andrew.Sheets@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2905 Collection Podcast Series Today's VVebcasts Your daily guide to all Morgan Stanley Researc ...