- The report introduces the **RSI (Relative Strength Index)** as a quantitative factor. The construction idea is to measure the relative strength of price movements over a specific period to identify overbought or oversold market conditions. The formula is: $ RSI = 100 - \frac{100}{1 + RS} $, where $ RS $ is the ratio of the average gain to the average loss over a 12-day period. An RSI > 70 indicates an overbought market, while RSI < 30 indicates an oversold market[2] - Another quantitative factor mentioned is **Net Purchase (NETBUY)**, which measures the net inflow or outflow of funds for ETFs. The formula is: $ NETBUY(T) = NAV(T) - NAV(T-1) \times (1 + R(T)) $, where $ NAV(T) $ is the net asset value on day $ T $, $ NAV(T-1) $ is the net asset value on the previous day, and $ R(T) $ is the return on day $ T $[2] - The report also tracks **Institutional Holdings** as a factor, which is derived from the latest annual or semi-annual reports of ETFs, excluding holdings by linked funds. This factor provides an estimate of institutional participation in the ETF[3] - The report includes **T+0 Trading** as a feature for certain ETFs, indicating whether same-day buy-and-sell transactions are allowed[2] - The report provides a detailed breakdown of ETF performance across various indices, including **broad-based indices** (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) and **thematic indices** (e.g., semiconductor, renewable energy, artificial intelligence). Performance metrics include RSI, net purchase, and institutional holdings[4] - The **RSI values** for ETFs tracking broad-based indices range from 35.83 to 52.12, with thematic ETFs showing a wider range, such as 30.25 for robotics and 63.73 for banking[4] - **Net purchase values** vary significantly, with some ETFs showing large outflows (e.g., -10.82 billion for Nasdaq 100 ETFs) and others showing inflows (e.g., 10.01 billion for Hang Seng Technology ETFs)[4] - **Institutional holdings** also vary widely, with some ETFs having over 90% institutional participation (e.g., CSI 800 ETFs) and others below 20% (e.g., certain thematic ETFs like robotics)[4]

- The report includes the construction of the RSI (Relative Strength Index) factor, which is calculated using the formula: $ RSI = 100 - 100 / (1 + RS) $, where RS represents the ratio of average gains to average losses over a 12-day period. RSI values above 70 indicate an overbought market, while values below 30 suggest an oversold market [2] - The report also introduces the calculation of net subscription (NETBUY), defined as $ NETBUY(T) = NAV(T) - NAV(T-1) * (1 + R(T)) $, where NETBUY(T) represents the net subscription amount, NAV(T) is the ETF's net asset value on day T, and R(T) is the return on day T [2] - The report tracks various ETFs categorized into "Broad-based" and "Thematic" indices, such as CSI 300, CSI 500, and industry-specific indices like non-bank financials, dividends, and China internet sectors. It provides daily performance metrics, including RSI values, net subscription amounts, and institutional holding percentages [2][4][7] - The RSI factor is evaluated as a useful indicator for identifying market conditions, such as overbought or oversold states, aiding in short-term trading decisions [2] - The net subscription metric is assessed as a valuable measure for understanding fund flows and investor sentiment towards specific ETFs [2] - RSI values for various ETFs range from 11.05 to 77.25, reflecting diverse market conditions across different indices and sectors [4][7] - Net subscription values vary significantly, with some ETFs showing positive inflows while others exhibit outflows, indicating mixed investor sentiment across different funds [4][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) with a target price of 648.83 HKD, based on expected strong performance in the upcoming months [5]. Core Insights - Ctrip Group's Q3 2025 performance shows robust growth driven by strong travel demand, with total revenue reaching 18.3 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.9 billion RMB, and adjusted EBITDA was 6.3 billion RMB [1][2]. Revenue Breakdown - Accommodation booking revenue was 8 billion RMB, up 18% year-on-year, supported by strong outbound travel and international hotel bookings. Transportation ticketing revenue reached 6.3 billion RMB, a 12% increase, driven by robust international flight bookings. Vacation revenue was 1.6 billion RMB, growing 3%, primarily due to the expansion of international product lines. Business travel management revenue was 756 million RMB, up 15% as more companies adopted these services [2]. International Business Performance - Ctrip's international OTA platform saw total bookings increase by approximately 60% year-on-year, with the Asia-Pacific region being the largest contributor. All regions experienced growth exceeding 50%, with mobile bookings accounting for over 70% of total bookings. Inbound travel bookings more than doubled, with significant growth from the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the US. Outbound hotel and flight bookings increased nearly 20%, reaching 140% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [2]. Demographic Trends - There is a strong demand from both senior and young travelers, indicating a trend of intergenerational diversity. The number of users in Ctrip's "Old Friends Club" grew over 70%, with affluent senior travelers focusing on quality travel experiences. Ctrip is customizing more products and services for this demographic. Young travelers are increasingly drawn to experience-driven travel, with revenues from this segment seeing triple-digit growth [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestion - The report anticipates continued enthusiasm for leisure travel, projecting revenues of 61.56 billion RMB, 70.78 billion RMB, and 80.36 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.5%, 15.0%, and 13.5%. Net profits are expected to be 31.92 billion RMB, 20.58 billion RMB, and 23.86 billion RMB, with growth rates of 87.0%, -35.5%, and 15.9% respectively. The report highlights Ctrip's significant domestic business advantages and the potential for international business to contribute additional growth [2][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a daily tracking of various ETFs, categorized into "Broad - based" and "Industry Theme" ETFs. It presents multiple data for each ETF, including trading volume, price changes, RSI, net purchases, and institutional holding ratios, aiming to offer investors a comprehensive understanding of the ETF market [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Categories Broad - based ETFs - **Multiple Index - tracking ETFs**: There are ETFs tracking various mainstream broad - based indices such as CSI 300, CSI 500, SSE 50, CSI 800, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, CSI A50, CSI A100, CSI A500, SSE STAR 50, SSE STAR 100, ChiNext, and various overseas broad - based indices. For example, the Huatai - Peregrine CSI 300 ETF has a market capitalization of 420.187 billion yuan and a decline of 0.57%. The Huaxia SSE STAR 50 ETF has a market capitalization of 722.26 billion yuan and an increase of 0.35% [4]. - **Performance Differentiation**: Different ETFs show different performance in terms of price changes, net purchases, and institutional holding ratios. For instance, the net purchase of the E Fund ChiNext ETF is 1.028 billion yuan, while the net purchase of the Huaxia SSE 50 ETF is - 4.00 billion yuan [4]. Industry Theme ETFs - **Diverse Industry Themes**: Include consumer electronics, non - bank finance, banking, real estate, new energy, chips, semiconductors, and many other industries. For example, the Huaxia China Securities Consumer Electronics Theme ETF has a market capitalization of 277.8 million yuan and a decline of 0.38% [6]. - **Industry - specific Performance**: Each industry's ETFs also have different performance. In the new energy sector, the GF China Securities New Energy Vehicle Battery ETF has a large net outflow of 651 million yuan, while the Peng Hua SSE STAR New Energy ETF has a net inflow of 37 million yuan [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to HKD 496.89 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company is leading in the development of IO 2.0 combination therapies, with three ADC assets (DB-1303, DB-1311, and DB-1305) already initiating four global clinical studies in collaboration with BioNTech [2][12]. - The ADCs are designed to explore various cancer types, including lung cancer and breast cancer, showcasing the potential for broad application in oncology [2][21][27]. - The report highlights the safety profile of the ADCs, particularly DB-1305, which has shown low rates of overlapping toxicity and a drug discontinuation rate of only 4.5% in clinical trials [23][24]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Embracing ADC Combination IO2.0 - The company has initiated four clinical studies for its ADCs in collaboration with BioNTech, focusing on the combination of ADCs with PD-L1/VEGF bispecific antibodies [2][12]. - DB-1311 is exploring various lung cancer types, while DB-1303 is targeting different HER2 expression levels in breast cancer [17][21]. - The ADCs are positioned to expand the treatment landscape for multiple cancer types, leveraging the synergistic effects of IO 2.0 [12][14]. Section 2: DB-1419 - A Novel PD-L1 x B7-H3 ADC - DB-1419 is a newly introduced ADC utilizing a unique "2+2" antibody design, showing superior tumor suppression effects in preclinical studies compared to existing B7-H3 ADCs [27][28]. - The ADC is currently undergoing global I/II phase clinical trials, with data expected in 2026 [28]. Section 3: DB-1317 - ADAM9 ADC for Gastrointestinal Tumors - DB-1317 targets ADAM9, which is highly expressed in various gastrointestinal cancers, demonstrating significant therapeutic potential [31][32]. - The ADC's design allows for targeted delivery of cytotoxic agents, enhancing its efficacy against tumors with high ADAM9 expression [31][32]. Section 4: DUPAC Platform and New Mechanisms - The DUPAC platform introduces innovative payloads aimed at overcoming resistance to existing therapies, with DUP5 showing broad anti-tumor activity [35][40]. - DUP5 operates through a unique mechanism that inhibits mRNA translation, allowing it to target both proliferating and non-dividing cancer cells [35][40].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of analyst consensus expectations in predicting future industry performance, particularly in the context of the current A-share market, which is characterized by valuation recovery and liquidity-driven trends [9][11][12] - The report constructs a composite expectation factor to capture marginal changes in industry prosperity, focusing on the strength and magnitude of upward revisions in analyst forecasts [11][12][49] - The analysis categorizes expected indicators into three groups: profitability, asset quality, and cost metrics, which are essential for assessing market expectations regarding industry fundamentals [16][23] Group 2 - The upward strength signal reflects the breadth of upward revisions within an industry, indicating improvements in industry prosperity [30][32] - The upward magnitude signal measures the month-on-month improvement in overall industry forecasts, highlighting the concentration and intensity of industry recovery [40][44] - The report identifies that profitability-related indicators, such as expected net profit and ROE, significantly outperform cash flow and cost indicators in terms of predictive power and return potential [35][44] Group 3 - The composite expectation score combines upward strength and upward magnitude to provide a comprehensive view of industry prosperity, with higher scores correlating with better future performance [53][65] - The backtesting results show that the top-performing industries based on the composite score yield substantial excess returns compared to the benchmark, demonstrating the model's effectiveness in identifying profitable sectors [70][73] - The report highlights that the top five industry strategy achieved an annualized excess return of 12.40%, indicating strong predictive capabilities of the model [70][74]

Market Overview - The performance of major indices during the sample period shows that SGE Gold 9999, Hang Seng Index, and CSI 2000 had returns of 3.39%, 1.26%, and 0.89% respectively [1][10] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top performers were Comprehensive, Textile & Apparel, and Retail, with returns of 6.99%, 4.41%, and 4.06% respectively, while Communication, Electronics, and Computer sectors lagged with returns of -4.77%, -4.77%, and -3.03% [1][16] ETF Product Overview ETF Market Performance - The average performance of different categories of ETFs indicates that Commodity ETFs had the best performance with a weighted average return of 3.39%, while Broad-based ETFs had the worst performance with a return of -1.39% [20][25] - Among the ETFs tracking different indices, CSI 2000 and Hong Kong stock ETFs performed well with average returns of 1.23% and 1.22% respectively, while the STAR Market and related ETFs performed poorly with returns of -4.86% and -3.49% [20][22] ETF Fund Flow - Industry-themed ETFs saw the highest net inflow of funds, totaling 14.588 billion yuan, while Broad-based ETFs experienced the largest net outflow of 2.417 billion yuan [2][26] - From the perspective of industry sectors, Technology sector ETFs had the highest net inflow of 8.016 billion yuan, while the Cyclical sector ETFs had the lowest net inflow of -0.144 billion yuan [2][28] ETF New Issuance and Listing - During the sample period, a total of 5 new funds were established and 11 funds were listed [3] ETF Trading Volume - The trading volume analysis shows that Style ETFs had the highest increase in average daily trading volume, with a change rate of 10.63%, while Money ETFs saw the largest decrease at -19.14% [32][34] - In terms of industry sectors, the Consumer sector experienced the highest increase in average daily trading volume with a change rate of 38.38%, while the Financial Real Estate sector had the largest decrease at -23.62% [36][38]

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.4677% to 1.4945%, a rise of 2.68 basis points, while DR007 rose from 1.4130% to 1.4673%, an increase of 5.43 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 narrowed by 2.75 basis points [9][13] - The net outflow of funds this week was 12.693 billion yuan, with net inflow decreasing by 28.346 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 44.735 billion yuan, while demand was 57.428 billion yuan [13][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index rose, with the consumer services sector leading with a weekly increase of 4.81%. Other sectors like textiles, apparel, and pharmaceuticals also saw slight increases. The telecommunications and electronics sectors led the declines, with drops of 4.90% and 4.44% respectively [18][21] - The basic chemical industry saw the highest net inflow of leveraged funds at 4.935 billion yuan, while the computer industry experienced the most significant net outflow at 3.728 billion yuan [21][22] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - The consumer style index had the largest increase in daily trading volume share, rising by 1.98%, while the growth style saw the largest decline, dropping by 2.20%. The growth style remains the most active sector, accounting for 52.92% of daily trading volume [31][34] - The main funds in the style sectors showed a trend of reduction, with the stable style seeing the largest increase of 0.35 billion yuan, while the growth style experienced a significant reduction of 17.877 billion yuan [33][34]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market [1] Core Insights - Aircraft manufacturers are slowly recovering capacity, but supply chain challenges continue to hinder aircraft supply. As of October 2025, Boeing delivered 493 aircraft and Airbus delivered 585 aircraft this year, with backlogged orders remaining at historically high levels [2][5][6] - Global aviation market demand growth has slowed down, with all regions experiencing a deceleration. The Middle East and Africa saw year-on-year increases of 6.2% and 6.1%, respectively, while North America experienced a slight decline of 0.1%. The Asia-Pacific region's international passenger volume grew by 7.4% year-on-year [2][11][16] - Overall, while aircraft manufacturers' capacity is recovering, it still cannot meet the expanding demand for aircraft. The aircraft leasing industry is expected to benefit from the tight supply-demand situation, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, which presents significant growth potential for Chinese aircraft leasing companies [2][40] Summary by Sections 1. Aircraft Supply Continues to be Tight - Boeing's average monthly delivery has significantly improved compared to last year, while Airbus's delivery is slightly better than the same period last year. However, both manufacturers are still far from previous high levels [5] - The backlog of aircraft orders remains at a historical high, with Boeing and Airbus accumulating new orders of 836 and 722 aircraft, respectively, this year [6] 2. Civil Aviation Passenger Demand Update - Global aviation passenger volume continues to grow, but the growth rate has slowed. In September 2025, global revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) increased by 3.6% year-on-year, while the global load factor was 83.4%, slightly lower than the previous year [11][16] - Domestic aviation RPK in September grew by 0.9% year-on-year, with Brazil showing a remarkable increase of 12.1% [21][20] 3. Aircraft Leasing Company Dynamics - Chinese aircraft leasing companies are currently valued relatively low compared to global leaders like AerCap, and they possess higher order elasticity, making them worthy of attention [2][38] - As of June 30, 2025, Bohai Leasing had the highest number of owned aircraft at 628, while China Aircraft Leasing had the least at 151 [44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 72.80 HKD, maintaining the current rating [3][6]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first quarterly profit in Q3 2025, driven by platform revenue growth, with total revenue for the first three quarters reaching 44.02 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 36.8%. The Q3 revenue was 17.76 billion RMB, up 31.4% year-on-year [1]. - The "XianZhi" platform continued to show strong growth, generating 15.43 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 67.6%, accounting for 86.9% of total revenue [1]. - The number of benchmark customers increased to 103, with a significant rise in average revenue per user (ARPU) to 25.49 million RMB, up 71.4% year-on-year [1]. - Research and development efficiency improved, with R&D expenses of 14.89 billion RMB for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, and an R&D expense ratio of 33.8%, down 8.9 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2024A at 5,261 million RMB, 2025E at 7,181 million RMB, 2026E at 9,579 million RMB, and 2027E at 12,539 million RMB, reflecting growth rates of 25.13%, 36.50%, 33.41%, and 30.89% respectively [8]. - The company is expected to turn profitable with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB in 2025E, increasing to 802 million RMB by 2027E, with corresponding growth rates of 121.76% and 154.35% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.52 RMB in 2024A to 1.54 RMB in 2027E [8].