政府融资推动信贷社融好于预期 ——3 月金融数据点评 2025 年 3 月社会融资规模增加 58879 亿元，同比多增 10544 亿元。社 融存量增速录得 8.4%,比前值上升 0.2pct。从结构上看，政府债仍贡献主 要增长，市场化需求偏弱。3 月政府债券增加 14828 亿元，同比多增 10202 亿元，占社融同比增量 97%，地方新增专项债发行进度较去年加快，截止 2025 年 3 月底，地方新增专项债共计 9602.4 亿元，占全年预算的 21.8% （2024 年前 3 月占比 16.3%）。3 月人民币新增贷款 36400 亿元，好于预期。 从结构上看，企业端优于居民端，是贷款新增主力。3 月是传统的生产旺季， 3 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.5%，景气度总体较高，企业在需求端或有一些积极 好转迹象，支撑企业融资需求。反观居民端，中长期优于短期，或受益于房 地产企稳回暖，中长期贷款同比多增 531 亿元。 3 月 M2 与上月持平录得 7.0%，M1 同比增速超预期回升 1.5pct 至 1.6%， 反映企业与居民现金流量表或开始改善。主要原因是财政资金加快落地， 前期发行的大规模政府债资金投 ...

ETF 资金流情况：从不同类别 ETF 角度来看，宽基 ETF 的资金净流入 最多，为 1746.18 亿元；风格 ETF 的资金净流入最少，为 43.12 亿元。从 ETF 跟踪指数及其成分股上市板块角度来看，沪深 300ETF 的资金净流入最 多，为 1058.44 亿元；MSCI 中国 A 股概念 ETF 的资金净流入最少，为-0.51 亿元。从行业板块角度来看，传统制造板块 ETF 的资金净流入最多，为 36.70 亿元；金融地产板块 ETF 的资金净流入最少，为-19.83 亿元。从主题角度 里看，红利和军工 ETF 的资金净流入最多，分别为 35.78 亿元和 22.24 亿 元；芯片半导体和非银 ETF 的资金净流入最少，分别为-22.28 亿元和-14.60 亿元。 ETF 融资融券情况：在样本期内，所有股票型 ETF 的融资净买入为 12.65 亿元，融券净卖出为 1.78 亿元。统计所有股票型 ETF 中融资净买入 排名前 10 和融券净卖出排名前 10 的 ETF 基金。样本期内，华泰柏瑞沪深 300ETF 的融资净买入最多，南方中证 500ETF 的融券净卖出最多。 ETF 新发及上市 ...

证券研究报告 麦高证券 2025 年 4 月 11 日 麦高金工团队 (2025-04-10) 数据说明： 1、本表针对ETF各类日频数据进行每日跟踪，不构成投资建议。 2、本表根据ETF追踪指数类别进一步分为"宽基"/"主题"两个子表。其中"宽基" ETF跟踪指数为沪深300、中证500、中证A500等主流宽基指数； "主题" ETF 跟踪指数为非银、红利、中概互联等某行业/风格指数。 3、基金池构建：在每个类型中选取规模较大的一只或几只ETF基金进行分析。 9、空值代表刚刚上市基金行情数据不满足计算指标或还未进行年报半年报披露，部分QDII的净值披露较晚，对于未披露的数据处理为空值。 | 日内行情趋势 管理费率 跟踪指数 ETF基金名称 涨跌幅（ %） T+0 | | 证券代码 | 流通市值 | | RSI相对 | 净申购 | 成交额 | | 机构持仓 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （亿元） | | | （亿元） | | 强弱指标 | | （亿元） | （ %） | 占比（ %） | | ...

行业深度报告 | 机械设备 日期：2025 年 04 月 11 日 人形机器人迎量产元年，国产厂商有望超车 人形机器人行业深度报告 ⚫ 核心观点 国产人形机器人本体厂有望在量产阶段获得竞争优势，建议关注国产本体厂和 相关供应链。2025 年为人形机器人商业化落地元年，国内市场是人形机器人早 期落地最佳市场，且国内人形机器人产业具备完善供应链和丰富高质量劳动 力，机器人量产后，国产厂商有望在国际竞争中获得优势，建议关注国产人形 机器人本体厂及其相关供应链。 新能源车筑基、AI 大模型赋能，人形机器人产业化进程全面提速。人形机器人 已接近产业化落地前夕，现代人形机器人未实现商业化落地主要原因在于三个 方面：（1）软件算法滞后，智能化水平低；（2）硬件性能不足，成本过高；（3） 人形机器人产业链生态不完善。2022 年特斯拉入局人形机器人推动产业加速落 地，同期 AI 大模型推动了人形机器人从"机械执行"到"智能体"的跨越， 赋予机器人自然交互与泛化的能力。当前人形机器人商业化条件已经成熟，有 望通过复用工业机器人、新能源汽车零部件迅速实现产业落地。 供需两端共振，国内人形机器人产业落地条件已成熟。国内已形成"中央 ...

Market Overview - The major indices experienced narrow fluctuations, with small-cap stocks undergoing significant adjustments, leading to a 3.90% weekly decline in the CSI 2000 index [8][14] - The average daily trading volume for stocks decreased significantly by 18.64% compared to the previous week, amounting to 12,607.77 billion yuan [8][14] - Commodity prices showed mixed trends, with iron ore and rebar continuing to decline, while COMEX copper reached a historical high before retracing, and COMEX gold surged to a new high of 3,124.4 USD [8][14] Active Equity Funds - In the active equity fund category, the top performers in the deep undervaluation strategy included Guotai Medical Health A (1.69%), Nuoan Strategy Selected (1.44%), and Minsheng Jia Yin Core Driven A (1.30%) [2] - The high growth strategy saw top performers such as Jiashi Huron Selected A (7.20%), Huian Yuyang Three-Year Regular Open (3.96%), and Huian Industry Leader (3.54%) [2] - The high-quality strategy's leading funds were Yifangda Medical Biology A (6.34%), ICBC Xingrui One-Year Holding A (5.43%), and Zhongou Medical Innovation A (4.81%) [2] Fund Positioning - Recent data indicated that active equity funds significantly increased their positions in the electronics (0.17%) and computer (0.52%) sectors, while reducing their holdings in basic chemicals (0.20%) and electric equipment and new energy (0.21%) [3] - Over the past month, notable increases in positions were observed in the computer (0.52%) and comprehensive finance (0.57%) sectors, while reductions were seen in electric equipment and new energy (0.81%) and telecommunications (0.51%) [3] Market Style - The growth style index experienced a weekly decline of 2.72%, with trading volume and turnover rate reaching near four-week lows of 47.23% and 3.86%, respectively [13][17] - The consumer style index was the strongest performer this week, with a rise of 0.28% and a trading volume share increasing to a near four-week high of 13.16% [13][17] - The financial style index fell by 0.16%, with its trading volume share at a near four-week low of 5.20% [13][17]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: RSI (Relative Strength Index) - **Model Construction Idea**: RSI is used to measure the relative strength of price movements over a specific period, identifying overbought or oversold market conditions[2] - **Model Construction Process**: - The formula for RSI is: $ RSI = 100 - \frac{100}{1 + RS} $ where $ RS = \frac{\text{Average Gain over N periods}}{\text{Average Loss over N periods}} $ - RSI is calculated over a 12-day period in this report[2] - RSI > 70 indicates an overbought market, while RSI < 30 indicates an oversold market[2] - **Model Evaluation**: RSI is a widely used technical indicator for short-term market trend analysis[2] 2. Model Name: Net Purchase (Net Subscription) - **Model Construction Idea**: This model calculates the net subscription amount of ETFs to assess fund inflows or outflows[2] - **Model Construction Process**: - The formula for Net Purchase is: $ NETBUY(T) = NAV(T) - NAV(T-1) \times (1 + R(T)) $ where: - $ NETBUY(T) $ is the net subscription amount on day T - $ NAV(T) $ is the net asset value on day T - $ R(T) $ is the return on day T[2] - **Model Evaluation**: This metric provides insights into investor sentiment and fund flow dynamics[2] --- Model Backtesting Results RSI Model - RSI values for various ETFs range between 35.46 and 68.26, with specific examples including: - **华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF**: RSI = 48.66[4] - **南方中证500ETF**: RSI = 46.82[4] - **华夏恒生科技ETF**: RSI = 46.99[4] Net Purchase Model - Net purchase values for ETFs vary significantly, with examples including: - **华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF**: Net Purchase = -1.73 billion[4] - **南方中证500ETF**: Net Purchase = 2.58 billion[4] - **华夏恒生科技ETF**: Net Purchase = -1.14 billion[4] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Institutional Holding Ratio - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the proportion of ETF holdings by institutional investors to gauge institutional participation[3] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Institutional holding ratio is derived from the latest annual or semi-annual reports of ETFs, excluding holdings by linked funds[3] - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor reflects the confidence and involvement of institutional investors in specific ETFs[3] --- Factor Backtesting Results Institutional Holding Ratio - Institutional holding ratios for various ETFs include: - **华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF**: 79.40%[4] - **南方中证500ETF**: 75.79%[4] - **华夏恒生科技ETF**: 43.75%[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company, with a target price of 7.04 HKD, reflecting a potential upside based on projected growth [4][26]. Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 3.34 billion RMB in 2024, with a significant increase in the revenue share from its core imaging and design products, which accounted for 62.4% of total revenue, reaching 2.09 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 57.1% [1][13]. - The overall gross profit for 2024 was 2.29 billion RMB, resulting in a gross margin of 68.7%, an increase of 7.24 percentage points compared to the previous year [1][13]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company grew by 59.2% year-on-year, exceeding the previously announced expectations [1][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Imaging and Design Core Competence - The company has enhanced its core capabilities in imaging and design, forming a combination of image, video, and design tools, with the imaging and design product revenue growing significantly [1][13][17]. - The advertising business also saw a revenue increase of 12.5%, contributing 25.5% to total revenue, while the beauty industry solutions revenue decreased by 32.4% [1][13]. 2. AI-Driven Overseas Market Expansion - The company increased its R&D expenses by 43.3% to 910 million RMB in 2024, focusing on AI model training and product development [3][19]. - The monthly active users (MAU) from overseas markets reached 94.51 million, a year-on-year growth of 21.7%, indicating successful user acquisition strategies [2][19]. 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 4.05 billion RMB, 4.85 billion RMB, and 5.65 billion RMB, respectively, with a consistent growth rate [6][23]. - The gross margin is expected to continue increasing, reaching 71%, 73%, and 74% over the next three years, driven by the high-margin imaging and design products [6][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the robust growth of Chinese automotive exports, particularly in the electric vehicle (EV) segment, with a notable increase in market penetration in Australia [3][13] - It emphasizes the potential for Chinese brands to capture a significant market share in Australia, projecting that by 2030, Chinese brands could achieve nearly 30% market share [3][24] Summary by Sections 1. Tracking the Overseas Market for Chinese Automakers - In January and February 2025, China's passenger car exports reached 730,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, with new energy vehicle (NEV) exports at 257,000 units, up 47.6% [3][13] - The penetration rate of NEVs in exports reached 33.9% in February 2025, indicating strong demand [14][16] - Leading companies in overseas sales include SAIC and Chery, with BYD showing rapid growth in international markets [19][20] 2. Analysis of the Australian Automotive Market - The Australian automotive market is mature, with high vehicle ownership and stable demand, despite a slight decline in sales in early 2025 [28][29] - Consumers prioritize durability and budget when purchasing vehicles, providing opportunities for new brands to enter the market [45][50] - The market is increasingly leaning towards NEVs due to stricter emissions standards and rising fuel prices [3][24] 3. Forecast for the Australian Automotive Market - By 2030, it is expected that Chinese brands will capture close to 30% of the Australian market, with total sales potentially reaching nearly 400,000 units [3][24] - The report identifies several companies with high success probabilities in the global market, including BYD, SAIC, Great Wall Motors, and others [3][24] 4. Overview of Chinese Automakers' Overseas Production Bases - Chinese automakers are accelerating the establishment of overseas production bases to support global strategies and meet international demand [22] - These bases enhance local supply capabilities, reduce delivery times, and improve brand recognition in foreign markets [22][23]

Quantitative Factors and Models Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. **Factor Name**: RSI (Relative Strength Index) **Construction Idea**: RSI is used to measure the relative strength of price movements over a specific period, identifying overbought or oversold market conditions[3] **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ RSI = 100 - \frac{100}{1 + RS} $ - Where $ RS = \frac{\text{Average Gain over N periods}}{\text{Average Loss over N periods}} $ - In this report, the RSI is calculated over a 12-day period[3] **Evaluation**: RSI is a widely used momentum indicator that provides insights into market sentiment and potential price reversals[3] 2. **Factor Name**: Net Subscription (NETBUY) **Construction Idea**: This factor measures the net inflow or outflow of funds into an ETF, reflecting investor sentiment and demand[3] **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ NETBUY(T) = NAV(T) - NAV(T-1) \times (1 + R(T)) $ - Where $ NAV(T) $ is the net asset value on day T, and $ R(T) $ is the return on day T[3] **Evaluation**: This factor is useful for understanding fund flows and liquidity dynamics in the ETF market[3] Quantitative Models and Construction Methods No specific quantitative models were mentioned in the report --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. **RSI Factor**: - RSI values for various ETFs range from approximately 44.61 to 80.46, with higher values indicating stronger momentum or potential overbought conditions[5][8] 2. **Net Subscription Factor**: - Net subscription values vary significantly across ETFs, with examples such as -11.00 billion for "易方达沪深300ETF" and 3.95 billion for "嘉实中证海外中国互联网30ETF"[5][8] --- Backtesting Results of Models No backtesting results for models were provided in the report

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform the Market" for the first time [5] Core Insights - The Japanese IP industry has successfully built a diverse IP matrix that mitigates the risks associated with the decline of single IP popularity, creating a combination of long-lasting classic IPs and a foundation of long-tail IPs [1][4] - Companies like Bandai and Tomy have developed cross-domain, cross-media, and cross-audience IP matrices, allowing them to maximize IP value and extend the lifecycle of their products [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of full industry chain integration and deep involvement in IP development to enhance control over the IP development chain and increase potential for premium pricing [4][46] Summary by Sections 1. IP Industry Chain: From Creation to Commercialization - The IP retail industry chain consists of three main segments: upstream IP creation, midstream product design/operation, and downstream retail [14] - Japan's unique production committee model allows for risk sharing and resource integration, significantly reducing the financial burden on individual companies [16][19] - The Japanese IP market is robust, with a total market size of 1.6 trillion yen in 2023, where peripheral products contribute 700.8 billion yen, accounting for 43.1% of total revenue [22] 2. IP Value Transformation: Product Power and Content Complementation Drive Growth - The output of IP product forms is crucial for maximizing IP value [2.1] - Bandai's revenue reached 1.1 trillion yen in the 2024 fiscal year, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.3% over three years [26] - Tomy, as Japan's second-largest toy manufacturer, reported a revenue of 208.3 billion yen in the 2024 fiscal year, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [36] 3. Domestic IP Development - The report highlights the structural opportunities for domestic IP in China, where reliance on foreign IP remains significant [48] - Companies like Pop Mart are diversifying their IP sources, with 85 IPs currently in their portfolio, including both self-developed and licensed IPs [55] - The growth of domestic animation films and the emergence of new IPs indicate a vibrant landscape for local IP development [51]