Market Overview - The equity market has entered a spring rally, with sectors such as Deepseek, humanoid robots, and semiconductors showing strong performance, leading to increased trading activity [2][9] - The average daily trading volume for the stock market reached 18,401.62 billion yuan, a significant increase of 52.65% compared to January 2025 [2][9] - Southbound capital saw significant net inflows, positively impacted by the revaluation of Chinese assets, with the Hang Seng Technology Index breaking through the high point of October 8, 2024 [2][9] - Short-term outlook suggests caution due to accumulated gains in sectors like humanoid robots and Deepseek, while large-cap value stocks may perform well in March [2][9] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 123 public funds were established this month, raising 62.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.83 billion yuan from the previous month [3][14] - The issuance structure included equity funds (41.92%), mixed funds (3.07%), and bond funds (42.68%), with bond fund issuance decreasing by 20.31 billion yuan [3][14] - Equity funds showed strong performance, with the ordinary fund index and stock index fund index yielding monthly returns of 4.67% and 5.01%, respectively [19][20] Fund Positioning - Recent data indicates a notable increase in positions within the electronics (2.89%) and computer (1.39%) sectors, while positions in non-ferrous metals (0.83%) and food and beverage (0.79%) sectors decreased [21][24] - The TMT sector saw a significant increase in positioning, reflecting a shift towards technology and growth-oriented investments [21][24] Key Fund Strategies - The top-performing funds in the deep value strategy included 华夏价值精选 (14.14%) and 汇丰晋信动态策略A (13.96%) [25][27] - In the high-growth strategy, 嘉实互融精选A led with a return of 18.59%, followed by 科创中欧LOF (18.04%) [28][29] - The quality strategy was led by 长城久鑫A (16.66%) and 银华心诚A (16.04%), indicating strong performance in high-quality investments [29][30] - The GARP strategy saw top performers such as 汇丰晋信智造先锋A (15.28%) and 金鹰行业优势A (13.40%) [32][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][27]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with international business continuing to grow. Q4 revenue reached 12.7 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, while the full-year revenue for 2024 was 53.3 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year. The net profit for 2024 was 17.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 32.3% [1][11][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 53.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20%. The net profit for the same year was 17.2 billion yuan, marking a 72% increase. The revenue structure is primarily driven by transportation and accommodation, which together account for approximately 80% of total revenue [11][12][14]. Business Segments - Accommodation revenue for 2024 was 21.6 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue reached 20.3 billion yuan, a 10% increase. The vacation segment saw a significant growth of 38% year-on-year, reaching 4.3 billion yuan, driven by international business growth [12][14][24]. International Expansion - The company’s international business is expanding rapidly, with Q4 2024 outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019. The international business accounted for 10% of total revenue for the year, with a strong focus on the Asia-Pacific market [2][18][24]. AI Integration - The integration of AI technologies is enhancing operational efficiency, with AI customer service improving response times and IT development efficiency. The AI tools, such as TripGenie, have seen significant engagement growth, indicating their potential as new customer acquisition channels [20][24]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.6 billion yuan, 68.9 billion yuan, and 76.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 15.6%, 11.9%, and 10.4%. Net profit is expected to reach 17.9 billion yuan, 20.8 billion yuan, and 23.5 billion yuan over the same period [7][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Meitu, with a target price of HKD 6.96 based on a projected PE of 37X for 2025 [5][7]. Core Insights - Meitu focuses on enhancing its image and design products through AI technology, which drives membership subscription conversion and improves user experience, retention, and willingness to pay [1][2]. - The company is expanding its B-end applications, with a notable increase in productivity product users and subscription penetration rates, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2][3]. - Meitu's global user base is growing, with significant contributions from overseas markets, and its advertising business is also on the rise due to increased user engagement [3][7]. Summary by Sections Strategic Focus on Image and Design Products - Meitu has refocused on its core image and design applications, leveraging AI to enhance product capabilities and user engagement, leading to a significant increase in active users and subscription rates [1][16]. - The flagship product, Meitu Xiuxiu, remains a leader in the market, with a strong daily active user (DAU) base and a comprehensive suite of features [1][58]. Expansion into Productivity Scenarios - The number of productivity product users has increased, with a 8.7% quarter-on-quarter growth in the first half of 2024, reaching 19.2 million users, which now accounts for 7.5% of total users [2][61]. - The Meitu Design Studio has seen a revenue growth of over 152%, indicating strong monetization potential in the B-end market [2][3]. Global User Growth and Revenue Streams - Domestic monthly active users (MAU) are stabilizing at over 170 million, while overseas users exceed 30%, contributing nearly 50% of revenue from image and design products [3][7]. - The advertising business has experienced a 129% revenue growth in regions outside mainland China, supported by an increase in overall MAU and the introduction of new products [3][7]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Meitu's net profit to grow significantly from 378.29 million in 2023 to 925.38 million by 2026, with corresponding EPS increasing from 0.09 to 0.20 [8][7]. - Revenue is expected to rise from 2.70 billion in 2023 to 4.86 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.3% [8][7].

证券研究报告-策略周报 撰写日期:2025年02月18日 策略周报 (20250210-20250214) 市场流动性概况 ● R007 由 1.79%上升至 2.03%,较前期增加了 24.65 个 bp;DR007 由 1.76%上升至 1.94%,较前值上升 17.83个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差较前期增 加了 6.82个bp。此外,中美利差在本周减少了 6.83个 bp。 本周资金净流入金额为-488.86亿元,较上周减少了 748.15 亿元,其 中资金供给为-28.11 亿元,资金需求为 460.75亿元。具体来看,资金供给 减少了 448.76 亿元,其中 ETF 净申购减少 301.71 亿元,融资净买入减少 了 132.69亿元;资金需求增加 299.39亿元。 麦高证券 研究发展部 分析师:林永绿 资格证书:S0650524060001 联系邮箱:linyonglv@mgzq.com 联系电话:15000307034 联系人:张昊阳 资格证书: S0650124040024 ● 行业板块流动性跟踪 从拥挤度排名分位数来看,截止到本周最后一个交易日,计算机行业 拥挤度最高,达到了 ...

证券研究报告—策略周报 撰写日期：2025 年 02 月 18 日 策略周报（20250210-20250214） ⚫ 市场流动性概况 R007 由 1.79%上升至 2.03%，较前期增加了 24.65 个 bp；DR007 由 1.76%上升至 1.94%，较前值上升 17.83 个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差较前期增 加了 6.82 个 bp。此外，中美利差在本周减少了 6.83 个 bp。 本周资金净流入金额为-488.86 亿元，较上周减少了 748.15 亿元，其 中资金供给为-28.11 亿元，资金需求为 460.75 亿元。具体来看，资金供给 减少了 448.76 亿元，其中 ETF 净申购减少 301.71 亿元，融资净买入减少 了 132.69 亿元；资金需求增加 299.39 亿元。 ⚫ 行业板块流动性跟踪 本周大多数行业收益呈现上涨趋势，分行业来看，传媒和计算机行业 的涨幅较大，煤炭和国防军工行业下跌较多。本周银行、食品饮料等 5 个 板块杠杆资金净买入为负，其余行业杠杆资金均呈现净流入状态。本周食品 饮料、机械、通信等 5 个行业的陆股通重仓股主力呈现资金净流入状态， 其余 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in service consumption in China, with a shift from physical goods to services as income levels rise, indicating a large room for growth compared to developed countries [2][22] - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with increasing consumer willingness to spend on travel, particularly in cross-border tourism, which is expected to further elevate tourism consumption levels [2][28] - Ctrip's competitive positioning is strengthened by its early entry into the OTA market, extensive resource accumulation, and a robust global expansion strategy [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Service Consumption Rise and Online Travel Growth Potential - The trend from physical to service consumption is evident, with service consumption in China still having significant growth potential compared to developed nations [2][22] - Domestic tourism is rebounding strongly, with 2024 domestic travel expected to reach 5.615 billion trips, a 14.8% increase year-on-year [28] - Cross-border travel is recovering, with 2024 seeing nearly 95 million outbound trips, a 52% increase from the previous year, indicating a strong demand for international travel [33][37] 2. Ctrip: Competitive Advantages and Product Strength - Ctrip has a first-mover advantage in the OTA market, with a comprehensive resource base and strong brand recognition [3][59] - The company is leveraging its technological capabilities to enhance user experience and product offerings, focusing on high-end market segments [3][64] - Ctrip's global strategy includes significant investments in overseas markets, particularly through its brands Trip.com and Skyscanner, which are gaining traction in the Asia-Pacific region [4][64] 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Ctrip is projected to achieve revenues of 528.5 billion, 609.49 billion, and 682.46 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 166.53 billion, 181.65 billion, and 208.52 billion yuan [10][11] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% for the online travel market from 2023 to 2026, driven by increasing internet penetration and service consumption [56][58]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the next six months [5][212]. Core Insights - The beauty industry is experiencing steady growth, with a market size nearing 600 billion, and a year-on-year increase of 5.0% in 2023. The high-end segment accounts for nearly 30% of the market, with expectations for stable growth in skincare and makeup demand [19][20]. - The company, MAOGEPING, is positioned as a leading high-end domestic beauty brand, with significant revenue growth and a unique brand identity that combines light and shadow aesthetics with Eastern beauty principles [2][8]. - The company has a strong online and offline channel strategy, with online revenue growth of 69.9% in 2023 and 63.4% in the first half of 2024, while offline channels remain crucial for customer loyalty and brand experience [3][131]. Summary by Sections 1. Beauty Industry Overview - The beauty industry is in a phase of steady growth, with high-end products gaining market share. The high-end beauty market reached 471 billion for color cosmetics and 1471 billion for skincare in 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.5% and 5.8% respectively [19][20]. - Online channels have been the primary source of growth, but offline channels are expected to maintain their importance due to the experiential nature of beauty products [28][29]. 2. Company Overview - MAOGEPING, led by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping, is the only Chinese company in the top 10 high-end beauty market. The company reported revenues of 28.9 billion and 19.7 billion for 2023 and the first half of 2024, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 57.8% and 41.0% [2][8]. - The brand's unique positioning and strong product lines in both color cosmetics and skincare are expected to drive further growth [2][8]. 3. Brand and Product Development - The company has a comprehensive product matrix with 387 SKUs, focusing on both color cosmetics and skincare. The integration of these two categories enhances customer loyalty and brand strength [107][111]. - The brand's pricing strategy effectively captures both premium and budget-conscious consumers, filling a gap in the high-end domestic beauty market [111][117]. 4. Channel Strategy - The company has established a robust offline presence with 372 direct-operated counters and a growing online presence through platforms like Tmall and Douyin. The online channel is expected to continue its rapid growth, with significant potential for customer base expansion [130][131]. - The offline channel remains critical for customer engagement, providing a unique shopping experience that online platforms cannot fully replicate [29][30]. 5. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 40.5 billion, 54.9 billion, and 70.5 billion, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 40.4%, 35.3%, and 28.5% [198][212]. - The company is expected to maintain high profitability, with gross margins projected to be around 84.6% to 85.2% over the same period [204][205]. 6. Investment Recommendation - Given the company's unique brand positioning, strong growth potential, and the expected performance of its stock, the report recommends an "Accumulate" rating, with a target price of 77.08 HKD by 2025 [212].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market" [4][36]. Core Insights - The social service industry experienced a significant increase of 6.39% from January 13 to January 17, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by approximately 4.25% [8][11]. - Key segments within the industry, including tourism and scenic spots, professional services, education, and hotel catering, saw respective increases of 7.34%, 6.22%, 6.08%, and 5.84% [11][15]. - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost both inbound and outbound tourism, driven by relaxed entry and exit policies, leading to increased consumer spending during the holiday [2][26]. Industry Weekly Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.14% during the same period, while the social service industry led the gains [8]. - The education sector recorded the highest weekly transaction volume at 188.50 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 80.52% [15][16]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the education sector was 97 times, while the price-to-book ratio was 4.3 times [15][16]. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - The average daily number of domestic flights from January 13 to January 19, 2025, was 14,029, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 9.55% and a year-on-year increase of 8.82% [20]. - The tourism consumption price index in Hainan was recorded at 98.39, showing a week-on-week decrease of 3.16% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.58% [21]. - In December 2024, the duty-free sales in China increased by 55.85% month-on-month, amounting to 2.917 billion yuan, although it represented a year-on-year decline of 5.79% [24]. Industry News and Company Announcements - There has been a notable increase in overseas users searching for domestic travel information on Chinese social media platforms, with hotel searches up by 36% and flight searches up by 28% [26]. - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism announced the resumption of group tours from Fujian and Shanghai to Taiwan, leading to a 48% increase in related searches on travel platforms [27]. - Visa applications for the Spring Festival have seen a year-on-year increase of 58%, with popular destinations including Japan, Australia, and the United States [28]. - China Duty Free Group announced the successful bidding for the operation rights of six city duty-free stores, expanding its presence to 13 cities [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5][28]. Core Insights - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry experienced a rebound with a weekly increase of 2.7%, ranking 25th among 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index [11][12]. - The weekly trading volume for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector reached 245.993 billion yuan [11]. - The chemical pharmaceutical industry had the highest trading volume at 93.918 billion yuan, while the pharmaceutical commercial sector had the lowest at 12.806 billion yuan [16]. - The establishment of the National Molecular Drug Innovation Center aims to enhance drug development for common diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and tumors, utilizing a "company + alliance" model [3][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector's weekly performance was positive, with all sub-sectors showing gains, particularly the biological products sector, which rose by 3.2% [12][16]. - The highest turnover rate was observed in the chemical pharmaceutical sector at 9.4%, while the biological products sector had the lowest at 4% [16]. Industry News and Important Announcements - The National Healthcare Security Administration held a press conference addressing various topics, including the operation of the medical insurance fund and drug price governance [17]. - The National Medical Products Administration released a draft for public consultation on the revised Medical Device Production Quality Management Standards, aimed at enhancing regulatory oversight [18][19]. - The approval of innovative drugs by various companies, such as the PD-L1 monoclonal antibody by Kelun Pharmaceutical and the approval of the drug Senaparib for ovarian cancer by East China Pharmaceutical, highlights ongoing advancements in the industry [21][22]. Important Announcements - Kelun Pharmaceutical's PD-L1 monoclonal antibody received approval for market launch in China [21]. - East China Pharmaceutical's Senaparib capsule was approved for use in maintaining treatment for ovarian cancer patients [22]. - Renfu Pharmaceutical's carbamazepine sustained-release tablets received FDA approval, marking a significant step in expanding into the U.S. market [23][24].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a decline of approximately -1.1% from January 6 to January 10, with the food and beverage sector declining by about -3.5%. The total trading volume for the food and beverage sector was approximately 143.6 billion yuan [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and anticipates a recovery in performance due to ongoing policy support [3] Market Review - From January 6 to January 10, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by about -1.1%, while the food and beverage sector saw a decline of approximately -3.5%, with a trading volume of around 143.6 billion yuan [10][11] - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, with beverage dairy, liquor II, food processing, seasoning and fermentation products II, snacks, and non-liquor showing declines of -0.4%, -3.6%, -4.6%, -5.2%, -5.5%, and -5.7% respectively [11] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - In November, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.0% year-on-year, with urban retail sales up by 2.9% and rural retail sales up by 3.2% [20] - The Citigroup China Economic Surprise Index was reported at 6.2 on January 10, down by 9.2 from the previous week, indicating a decline after reaching a peak in December [22] - In November, the production of Chinese liquor was 375,000 kiloliters, down by 15.2% year-on-year, while the cumulative production from January to November was 3.726 million kiloliters, down by 0.6% [26] - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.12 yuan per kilogram on January 2, showing a slight increase from the previous week but a year-on-year decrease of 14.8% [28] - In December, beef prices fell by 13.8% year-on-year, while pork prices rose by 12.5% [31] - In November, beer production was 1.695 million kiloliters, up by 5.7% year-on-year, with a cumulative production of 32.774 million kiloliters from January to November, down by 1.5% [34] Industry News and Company Announcements - Yanghe launched a special consumption coupon worth 300 million yuan for the Spring Festival, available for use in purchasing promotional products [39] - Xifeng Company held a food safety meeting emphasizing quality culture and strict supervision to ensure food safety [39] - Zhongju Gaoxin held a board meeting to elect a new independent director, while Haoxiangni announced a stock repurchase plan due to the departure of several incentive plan participants [40]