Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.81% to 1.83%, a rise of 2.05 basis points; DR007 rose from 1.8066% to 1.8121%, up by 0.55 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 increased by 1.5 basis points [9][12] - The net inflow of funds this week was -9.248 billion, an increase of 22.927 billion from the previous week, with total fund supply at 33.199 billion and demand at 42.446 billion. Fund supply increased by 24.025 billion, with net financing purchases up by 6.140 billion and ETF net subscriptions increasing by 19.231 billion [12][16] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - Most industries showed an upward trend in returns, with significant increases in the food and beverage, coal, and non-ferrous metals sectors, which rose by 6.24%, 4.97%, and 3.33% respectively. Conversely, the computer and electronics sectors experienced declines of 1.20% and 0.56% [18][22] - Nine sectors, including banking and retail, saw negative net purchases of leveraged funds, while the remaining sectors experienced net inflows. Notably, the non-ferrous metals and electronics sectors had significant net purchases of 3.353 billion and 2.477 billion respectively [22][27] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - The average daily trading volume of growth style decreased by 4.02%, while other styles saw increases, particularly the cyclical style, which rose by 2.25%. The main funds in the stock connect reduced holdings in both stable and growth styles, with the most significant reduction in growth style [3][11]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook on government bonds as a support for social financing, with a focus on the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies [9]. Core Insights - In February 2025, the social financing scale increased by 22,375 billion yuan, which is 7,416 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The stock growth rate of social financing recorded 8.2%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous value. Government bond financing remains strong, while demand for loans from residents and enterprises is insufficient [9]. - The government work report emphasizes a total new debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan for the year, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to the previous year, suggesting that government bond financing may continue to support social financing [9]. - In February, new RMB loans amounted to 10,100 billion yuan, with the residential sector performing better than the enterprise sector. However, short-term loans for residents recorded a decrease of 2,741 billion yuan, indicating a slow recovery in consumption [11]. Summary by Sections Government Bonds Supporting Social Financing - The report highlights that government bonds increased by 16,939 billion yuan in February, which is 10,928 billion yuan more than the previous year. The proactive fiscal policy is expected to bolster social financing [9]. - The new RMB loans in February were 6,528 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,245 billion yuan year-on-year, while foreign currency loans decreased by 281 billion yuan [9]. M1 Growth Rate - The M1 year-on-year growth rate recorded 0.1% in February, which was below expectations, possibly due to the impact of the Spring Festival. The M2 growth rate remained stable at 7.0%, indicating a high willingness to save among residents [14]. - The M2-M1 gap expanded to 6.9%, reflecting a need for further confidence in the real economy [14].

Market Overview - The report highlights the valuation situation of major indices, with the PE valuation percentile of the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 at 100.00%, while the Nikkei 225 has the lowest at 7.38% [1][12] - In terms of returns, the beauty care, food and beverage, and coal industries ranked highest with returns of 8.18%, 6.19%, and 4.84% respectively, while the computer, machinery, and electronics sectors had lower returns of -1.36%, -0.68%, and -0.62% [1][13] ETF Fund Flow - Industry theme ETFs saw the highest net inflow of funds at 120.82 billion, while broad-based ETFs experienced the largest net outflow at -135.44 billion [2][26] - From the perspective of tracked indices, Hong Kong stock ETFs had the highest net inflow of 64.50 billion, while the CSI 300 ETF had the lowest net inflow at -70.02 billion [2][26] - The technology sector ETFs had the highest net inflow of 67.78 billion, while the financial real estate sector ETFs had the lowest net inflow at -20.65 billion [2][29] - The semiconductor and artificial intelligence ETFs had the highest net inflows of 34.91 billion and 19.29 billion respectively, while non-bank and bank ETFs had the lowest net inflows of -18.06 billion and -3.06 billion [2][29] ETF New Issuance and Listing - During the sample period, a total of 5 new funds were established and 6 funds were listed [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 34.8 CNY over the next six months [6][9]. Core Insights - The company has established a clear three-tier business layout based on precision machining, focusing on turbocharger components, new energy vehicle parts, and linear motion components, demonstrating robust operational quality [1][19]. - The company has strong cash flow from sales and operations, indicating high revenue quality and stable business performance [1][30]. - The turbocharger component business is expected to continue as a cornerstone for the company, with projected revenues of 1.114 billion, 1.239 billion, and 1.371 billion CNY from 2024 to 2026 [2][40]. - The new energy vehicle parts business is anticipated to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 250 million, 340 million, and 450 million CNY from 2024 to 2026 [3]. - The screw rod business is also expected to see growth, with projected revenues of 5 million, 80 million, and 180 million CNY from 2024 to 2026 [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - The company was founded in 1997 and has leveraged precision machining technology to enter the turbocharger component manufacturing sector, later expanding into new energy vehicle parts and linear motion components [1][19]. - The company has a stable shareholding structure, with the actual controller holding 55.7% of shares, and has implemented effective employee stock ownership and incentive mechanisms [25][27]. 2. Turbocharger Component Business - The turbocharger industry is mature and concentrated, benefiting leading companies. The company has established deep ties with Tier 1 suppliers like Garrett and Cummins, ensuring a stable revenue stream [2][40]. - The company’s turbocharger component revenues are projected to grow at rates of 9.83%, 11.23%, and 10.68% from 2024 to 2026 [40]. 3. New Energy Vehicle Parts Business - The company has focused on lightweight structural components and precision parts for new energy vehicles since 2018, benefiting from the trend towards vehicle lightweighting [3][41]. - The expected revenue growth for this segment is significant, with projections of 250 million, 340 million, and 450 million CNY from 2024 to 2026 [3]. 4. Screw Rod Business - The screw rod market is expanding, with the company establishing a subsidiary to produce high-precision screw rods and linear guides, targeting various industries including robotics and machine tools [4][60]. - Revenue projections for the screw rod business are 5 million, 80 million, and 180 million CNY from 2024 to 2026 [4].

Market Overview - The equity market has entered a spring rally, with sectors such as Deepseek, humanoid robots, and semiconductors showing strong performance, leading to increased trading activity [2][9] - The average daily trading volume for the stock market reached 18,401.62 billion yuan, a significant increase of 52.65% compared to January 2025 [2][9] - Southbound capital saw significant net inflows, positively impacted by the revaluation of Chinese assets, with the Hang Seng Technology Index breaking through the high point of October 8, 2024 [2][9] - Short-term outlook suggests caution due to accumulated gains in sectors like humanoid robots and Deepseek, while large-cap value stocks may perform well in March [2][9] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 123 public funds were established this month, raising 62.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.83 billion yuan from the previous month [3][14] - The issuance structure included equity funds (41.92%), mixed funds (3.07%), and bond funds (42.68%), with bond fund issuance decreasing by 20.31 billion yuan [3][14] - Equity funds showed strong performance, with the ordinary fund index and stock index fund index yielding monthly returns of 4.67% and 5.01%, respectively [19][20] Fund Positioning - Recent data indicates a notable increase in positions within the electronics (2.89%) and computer (1.39%) sectors, while positions in non-ferrous metals (0.83%) and food and beverage (0.79%) sectors decreased [21][24] - The TMT sector saw a significant increase in positioning, reflecting a shift towards technology and growth-oriented investments [21][24] Key Fund Strategies - The top-performing funds in the deep value strategy included 华夏价值精选 (14.14%) and 汇丰晋信动态策略A (13.96%) [25][27] - In the high-growth strategy, 嘉实互融精选A led with a return of 18.59%, followed by 科创中欧LOF (18.04%) [28][29] - The quality strategy was led by 长城久鑫A (16.66%) and 银华心诚A (16.04%), indicating strong performance in high-quality investments [29][30] - The GARP strategy saw top performers such as 汇丰晋信智造先锋A (15.28%) and 金鹰行业优势A (13.40%) [32][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][27]. Core Insights - The company's Q4 2024 performance met expectations, with international business continuing to grow. Q4 revenue reached 12.7 billion yuan, a 23% year-on-year increase, while the full-year revenue for 2024 was 53.3 billion yuan, up 20% year-on-year. The net profit for 2024 was 17.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 72% increase year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 32.3% [1][11][14]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 53.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20%. The net profit for the same year was 17.2 billion yuan, marking a 72% increase. The revenue structure is primarily driven by transportation and accommodation, which together account for approximately 80% of total revenue [11][12][14]. Business Segments - Accommodation revenue for 2024 was 21.6 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, while transportation ticketing revenue reached 20.3 billion yuan, a 10% increase. The vacation segment saw a significant growth of 38% year-on-year, reaching 4.3 billion yuan, driven by international business growth [12][14][24]. International Expansion - The company’s international business is expanding rapidly, with Q4 2024 outbound hotel and flight bookings exceeding 120% of the same period in 2019. The international business accounted for 10% of total revenue for the year, with a strong focus on the Asia-Pacific market [2][18][24]. AI Integration - The integration of AI technologies is enhancing operational efficiency, with AI customer service improving response times and IT development efficiency. The AI tools, such as TripGenie, have seen significant engagement growth, indicating their potential as new customer acquisition channels [20][24]. Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 61.6 billion yuan, 68.9 billion yuan, and 76.1 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 15.6%, 11.9%, and 10.4%. Net profit is expected to reach 17.9 billion yuan, 20.8 billion yuan, and 23.5 billion yuan over the same period [7][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Meitu, with a target price of HKD 6.96 based on a projected PE of 37X for 2025 [5][7]. Core Insights - Meitu focuses on enhancing its image and design products through AI technology, which drives membership subscription conversion and improves user experience, retention, and willingness to pay [1][2]. - The company is expanding its B-end applications, with a notable increase in productivity product users and subscription penetration rates, indicating a strong growth trajectory [2][3]. - Meitu's global user base is growing, with significant contributions from overseas markets, and its advertising business is also on the rise due to increased user engagement [3][7]. Summary by Sections Strategic Focus on Image and Design Products - Meitu has refocused on its core image and design applications, leveraging AI to enhance product capabilities and user engagement, leading to a significant increase in active users and subscription rates [1][16]. - The flagship product, Meitu Xiuxiu, remains a leader in the market, with a strong daily active user (DAU) base and a comprehensive suite of features [1][58]. Expansion into Productivity Scenarios - The number of productivity product users has increased, with a 8.7% quarter-on-quarter growth in the first half of 2024, reaching 19.2 million users, which now accounts for 7.5% of total users [2][61]. - The Meitu Design Studio has seen a revenue growth of over 152%, indicating strong monetization potential in the B-end market [2][3]. Global User Growth and Revenue Streams - Domestic monthly active users (MAU) are stabilizing at over 170 million, while overseas users exceed 30%, contributing nearly 50% of revenue from image and design products [3][7]. - The advertising business has experienced a 129% revenue growth in regions outside mainland China, supported by an increase in overall MAU and the introduction of new products [3][7]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts Meitu's net profit to grow significantly from 378.29 million in 2023 to 925.38 million by 2026, with corresponding EPS increasing from 0.09 to 0.20 [8][7]. - Revenue is expected to rise from 2.70 billion in 2023 to 4.86 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.3% [8][7].

证券研究报告-策略周报 撰写日期:2025年02月18日 策略周报 (20250210-20250214) 市场流动性概况 ● R007 由 1.79%上升至 2.03%,较前期增加了 24.65 个 bp;DR007 由 1.76%上升至 1.94%,较前值上升 17.83个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差较前期增 加了 6.82个bp。此外,中美利差在本周减少了 6.83个 bp。 本周资金净流入金额为-488.86亿元,较上周减少了 748.15 亿元,其 中资金供给为-28.11 亿元,资金需求为 460.75亿元。具体来看,资金供给 减少了 448.76 亿元,其中 ETF 净申购减少 301.71 亿元,融资净买入减少 了 132.69亿元;资金需求增加 299.39亿元。 麦高证券 研究发展部 分析师:林永绿 资格证书:S0650524060001 联系邮箱:linyonglv@mgzq.com 联系电话:15000307034 联系人:张昊阳 资格证书: S0650124040024 ● 行业板块流动性跟踪 从拥挤度排名分位数来看,截止到本周最后一个交易日,计算机行业 拥挤度最高,达到了 ...

证券研究报告—策略周报 撰写日期：2025 年 02 月 18 日 策略周报（20250210-20250214） ⚫ 市场流动性概况 R007 由 1.79%上升至 2.03%，较前期增加了 24.65 个 bp；DR007 由 1.76%上升至 1.94%，较前值上升 17.83 个 bp。R007 与 DR007 利差较前期增 加了 6.82 个 bp。此外，中美利差在本周减少了 6.83 个 bp。 本周资金净流入金额为-488.86 亿元，较上周减少了 748.15 亿元，其 中资金供给为-28.11 亿元，资金需求为 460.75 亿元。具体来看，资金供给 减少了 448.76 亿元，其中 ETF 净申购减少 301.71 亿元，融资净买入减少 了 132.69 亿元；资金需求增加 299.39 亿元。 ⚫ 行业板块流动性跟踪 本周大多数行业收益呈现上涨趋势，分行业来看，传媒和计算机行业 的涨幅较大，煤炭和国防军工行业下跌较多。本周银行、食品饮料等 5 个 板块杠杆资金净买入为负，其余行业杠杆资金均呈现净流入状态。本周食品 饮料、机械、通信等 5 个行业的陆股通重仓股主力呈现资金净流入状态， 其余 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for Ctrip Group-S (09961.HK) [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in service consumption in China, with a shift from physical goods to services as income levels rise, indicating a large room for growth compared to developed countries [2][22] - The tourism market is experiencing a strong recovery, with increasing consumer willingness to spend on travel, particularly in cross-border tourism, which is expected to further elevate tourism consumption levels [2][28] - Ctrip's competitive positioning is strengthened by its early entry into the OTA market, extensive resource accumulation, and a robust global expansion strategy [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Service Consumption Rise and Online Travel Growth Potential - The trend from physical to service consumption is evident, with service consumption in China still having significant growth potential compared to developed nations [2][22] - Domestic tourism is rebounding strongly, with 2024 domestic travel expected to reach 5.615 billion trips, a 14.8% increase year-on-year [28] - Cross-border travel is recovering, with 2024 seeing nearly 95 million outbound trips, a 52% increase from the previous year, indicating a strong demand for international travel [33][37] 2. Ctrip: Competitive Advantages and Product Strength - Ctrip has a first-mover advantage in the OTA market, with a comprehensive resource base and strong brand recognition [3][59] - The company is leveraging its technological capabilities to enhance user experience and product offerings, focusing on high-end market segments [3][64] - Ctrip's global strategy includes significant investments in overseas markets, particularly through its brands Trip.com and Skyscanner, which are gaining traction in the Asia-Pacific region [4][64] 3. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Ctrip is projected to achieve revenues of 528.5 billion, 609.49 billion, and 682.46 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding net profits of 166.53 billion, 181.65 billion, and 208.52 billion yuan [10][11] - The report anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.6% for the online travel market from 2023 to 2026, driven by increasing internet penetration and service consumption [56][58]