[Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 王斌 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522030002 wangbin3@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152644 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 相关研究 [Table_Title] 经营具有较强韧性，TIDES 业务快速增长 [Table_ReportDate] 药明康德(603259)公司简评报告 | 2025.03.31 核心观点 盈利预测 | [Table_Profit] | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营收（亿元） | 392.41 | 428.79 | 486.33 | 542.99 | | 营收增速 | -2.7% | 9.3% | 13.4% | 11.7% | | 归母净利润（亿元） | 94.51 | 116.04 | 136.35 | 157.22 | | 归母净利润增速 | -1.6% | 22.8% | 17.5% | 15.3% | | EPS(元/股) | 3.27 | 4.02 | ...

[Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 何立中 电子行业首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522110002 helizhong@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152682 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 相关研究 [Table_Title] CoD 强化大模型不可能三角，加速端侧应用落地 [Table_ReportDate] 电子 | 行业简评报告 | 2025.03.25 核心观点 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Authors] -0.5 0 0.5 18-Mar 29-May 9-Aug 20-Oct 31-Dec 13-Mar 电子 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 [Table_OtherReport] 1~2 月集成电路进出口额增速优于全 国总进出口 电子：看好"人工智能+"带来的投资机 会 电子行业：关注 Norflash 和 SRAM 存 算一体化芯片 [Table_Summary] ⚫ 思维链 CoT：拆解复杂问题，形成详细的中间推理步骤。2022 年 1 月 的论文《 Chain-of-Thought Prompting ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the Chinese capital market is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," with significant reforms and a focus on serving the real economy and promoting high-quality development [2][23]. - The report outlines the achievements in building a multi-level capital market system, highlighting the restructuring of the institutional framework and policy innovations [7][9]. - Future policies will focus on cross-border product innovation and enhancing the support for new productive forces, which are crucial for China's modernization [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Achievements in Capital Market Reform - The establishment of a "1+N" policy framework has led to the revision of numerous regulations covering the entire chain from issuance to governance [7]. - Significant policies have been introduced to support technology enterprises, with the STAR Market raising over 1 trillion yuan in financing [9]. 2. Strengthened Regulation and Investor Protection - There has been a notable increase in the crackdown on financial fraud, with a significant rise in penalties and the establishment of a "blacklist" for financial fraud [8]. - Innovations in investor protection mechanisms include the normalization of collective lawsuits and the trial of a "prior compensation" system [8]. 3. Service to Technological Innovation - The financing scale for technology enterprises has expanded significantly, with the STAR Market's cumulative financing exceeding 1 trillion yuan [9]. - The report notes the rapid growth of companies in strategic emerging sectors, particularly in artificial intelligence [9]. 4. Market Ecology Optimization - Dividend payouts and share buybacks have reached historical highs, with the dividend amount increasing significantly year-on-year [10]. - There has been a marked increase in long-term capital entering the market, enhancing market stability [10]. 5. Future Directions - Future policies will include cross-border ETF pilot programs and the exploration of offshore issuance of RMB-denominated bonds [11]. - The report suggests enhancing the inclusiveness of the issuance and listing system, particularly for technology enterprises [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - Nvidia's revenue for Q4 of fiscal year 2025 increased by 77.94% year-on-year, reaching $39.331 billion. The revenue growth rate has shown significant fluctuations over the last 12 quarters, peaking at +265.28% in Q4 of fiscal year 2024 before declining to +77.94% in Q4 of fiscal year 2025 [2][7] - The gross margin for Nvidia has exhibited a downward trend over the four quarters of fiscal year 2025, decreasing from 78.35% in Q1 to 73.03% in Q4 [2][8] - Customer advances and unearned revenue related to hardware support, software support, cloud services, and license and development arrangements have shown a notable decrease, with figures dropping from $340 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2024 to $81 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2025 [3][12] - Nvidia's guidance for Q1 of fiscal year 2026 indicates expected revenue of $43 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.11% compared to Q1 of fiscal year 2025 [4][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.39% from March 10 to March 14, while the CITIC Electronics sector fell by 0.56%. Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 2.02%, and the CITIC Electronics sector has risen by 10.89% [4][15] Summary by Sections Nvidia Financial Performance - Nvidia's Q4 fiscal year 2025 revenue was $39.331 billion, a 77.94% increase year-on-year. The revenue growth rate has fluctuated significantly, with a peak of +265.28% in Q4 of fiscal year 2024 [2][7] - The gross margin for Nvidia has decreased from 78.35% in Q1 to 73.03% in Q4 of fiscal year 2025 [2][8] Customer Advances and Revenue - The customer advances and unearned revenue have decreased significantly, with values of $340 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2024 dropping to $81 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2025 [3][12] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.39% from March 10 to March 14, while the CITIC Electronics sector decreased by 0.56%. Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 2.02%, and the CITIC Electronics sector has increased by 10.89% [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on edge computing chips and smart terminals capable of loading AI large models [4][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][25] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Three-Year Action Plan to Optimize the Consumption Environment (2025-2027)" released by five departments, which aims to enhance consumption supply quality, optimize consumption order, improve consumer rights protection, and create a better consumption environment by 2027 [3][19] - Investment suggestions focus on companies benefiting from changing consumer habits, particularly in the context of a wealthier middle class and the demand for cultural and experiential products, indicating potential for upward valuation [5][19] - The report highlights strong expectations for policy implementation, suggesting that despite inflation concerns, attractive valuations exist for leading companies in sectors like medical aesthetics and liquor distribution [5][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices saw increases during the week of February 17-21, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.99% [5][6] - The retail sector index decreased by 1.09%, underperforming the CSI 300, while the social services index increased by 0.88%, also underperforming the CSI 300 [5][8] Sector Performance - Within the retail sector, specialized chains performed the best, while internet e-commerce lagged behind; in social services, specialized services excelled, whereas hotel and catering services underperformed [5][11] Valuation Tracking - As of February 21, 2025, the retail sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreased, while the social services sector's PE ratio increased, with the retail sector's PE at the 68.24% percentile over the past decade [14][16]

[Table_Authors] 韦志超 首席经济学家 SAC 执证编号：S0110520110004 weizhichao@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152692 [Table_Title] 政策呵护下的经济走势展望 [Table_ReportDate] 宏观经济分析报告 | 2025.03.13 核心观点 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Rank] [Table_Summary] ⚫ 2025 年是中国"十四五"规划收官之年，也是"十五五"规划启动之年。 在全球经济格局深刻调整、国内经济转型升级的关键阶段，如何通过宏 观政策突破需求不足瓶颈，成为全年经济工作的核心命题。 ⚫ 当前中国经济面临需求不足压力，投资、消费、出口"三驾马车" 均面 临挑战。房地产市场深度调整已持续四年，拖累建筑、建材等关联产业， 投资复苏仍需政策支持。消费端受居民收入增速放缓和经济不确定性影 响，政府短期刺激效果有限，长期增长依赖经济整体回暖。出口方面， 尽管制造业根基稳固，但地缘政治冲突和贸易摩擦加剧了外部环境的不 确定性。经济内生修复动力不足，亟需政策干预。 ⚫ 面对需求不足困境，中 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is impacted by increased costs, but the innovative nuclear medicine research is progressing steadily [5][7] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.869 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 184 million yuan, down 12.35% [7] - The company anticipates marginal improvement in 2025 as the demand for heparin raw materials gradually recovers [7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price is 13.25 yuan, with a one-year high of 16.29 yuan and a low of 11.28 yuan [3] - The current P/E ratio is 59.44, and the P/B ratio is 2.44 [3] - The total share capital is 8.25 billion shares, with a total market value of 10.926 billion yuan [3] Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.141 billion yuan, 3.433 billion yuan, and 3.737 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.5%, 9.3%, and 8.9% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 235 million yuan, 286 million yuan, and 339 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 28.1%, 21.2%, and 18.8% respectively [6] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 46.4, 38.3, and 32.2 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][68] Core Insights - Leading chemical companies possess not only cost and technical advantages but also comprehensive accumulation and enhancement in the chemical system over years, maintaining a positive outlook on their profitability and investment value. Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, Longbai Group, and Yuanxing Energy [4] - Long-term global tire demand is steadily increasing, with domestic tire companies gaining market share due to cost-performance advantages. In the short term, domestic and international demand recovery, along with falling raw material and shipping costs, is expected to restore profitability. Recommended companies include Sailun Tire and Senqilin, which are rapidly expanding overseas [4] - High grain prices and steady growth in global arable land area indicate rigid demand for agricultural chemical products. The rigid demand for phosphate fertilizers combined with new energy needs suggests focusing on companies rich in phosphate resources such as Chuanheng Co., Yuntianhua, and Xingfa Group, as well as low-valuation leading pesticide companies like Yangnong Chemical [4] - After the implementation of quota-based production and sales of third-generation refrigerants in 2024, quotas will concentrate on leading companies, indicating a long-term upward cycle in the refrigerant industry amid growing global demand. Recommended companies include Juhua Co., Yonghe Co., Sanmei Co., and Jinshi Resources [4] Market Performance Summary - During the week of February 10-14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3346.72, with a weekly increase of 1.30%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10749.46, with a weekly increase of 1.64%. The Small and Medium-sized Board 100 Index closed at 6686.15, with a weekly increase of 1.45%. The basic chemical sector (Shenwan) closed at 3362.32, with a weekly increase of 1.45%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.15 percentage points [6][7] - In the chemical sector, all seven secondary sub-industries showed positive growth, with 17 out of 23 tertiary sub-industries also showing positive growth [7] Chemical Price Review - Notable price increases for chemicals included NYMEX natural gas (+9.64%), acetone (+9.53%), and urea (+8.97%). The largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (-14.02%) and biotin (-10.61%) [16][20] - The PVC price spread increased significantly by 34.75%, followed by DMC (+24.66%) and propylene oxide (+18.22%). The largest declines in price spreads were seen in bisphenol A (-42.45%) and adipic acid (-9.44%) [17][21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company has achieved a revenue of 138 million yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.27%. However, it reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 6.93 million yuan [4] - The dToF lidar sensor chip LS635 has been sent to a small batch of customers for sampling, with applications in robotics, drones, and autonomous driving [5] - The company has launched the latest product in the Gemini 330 series, the Gemini 335Lg, which integrates seamlessly with UR AI Accelerator for 3D visual data support [6] - The company is focused on building a platform for robotics and AI vision in the era of artificial intelligence, with a strong chip development team [7] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 5.51 billion yuan, 8.85 billion yuan, and 12.21 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 53.1%, 60.5%, and 38.0% [7] Financial Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 138 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46.27%. For the first three quarters, the revenue reached 350 million yuan, up 35.27% year-on-year [4] - The company expects to generate revenues of 5.51 billion yuan in 2024, 8.85 billion yuan in 2025, and 12.21 billion yuan in 2026, with net profits projected at -0.88 billion yuan, -0.18 billion yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan respectively [8] - The current price-to-earnings ratio is -98.58, and the price-to-book ratio is 4.84 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][2]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.487 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.42%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 342 million yuan, down 11.68% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 955 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.68% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 123 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.77% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.94% [2]. - The company is deepening its partnerships with high-quality clients such as Tesla, Li Auto, NIO, and Leap Motor, with significant improvements in sales volume for these core clients in Q3 2024 [2]. - The company is accelerating its layout in integrated die-casting, with plans to invest 1 billion yuan in a project in Jinhua City, with the first phase planned for 600 million yuan and the second phase for 400 million yuan [2]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 3.97 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.41 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing from 510 million yuan to 710 million yuan [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 21.55%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.14 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The net profit margin was 12.81%, down 0.90 percentage points year-on-year and 0.95 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024 is 3.97 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 1.5%, and is expected to reach 5.41 billion yuan by 2026, with a growth rate of 16.2% [3]. Client Relationships - The company has established strong partnerships with leading electric vehicle manufacturers, with Tesla's sales in China reaching 181,900 units in Q3 2024, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 24.67%. Li Auto's sales were 152,800 units, up 40.75% quarter-on-quarter [2]. Investment Strategy - The company is focusing on integrated die-casting to enhance production efficiency and is expected to gradually ramp up production by 2025 [2].