关注科技产业基本面趋势及投资映射 策略研究报告 | 北交所 | 2025.05.26 核心观点 邹序元 分析师 ● 周观点。回归产业基本面,关注科技产业新变化。受市场流动性和大小 ● 盘风格因素影响,北证50指数的波动性加大,板块轮动特征明显 (5.12-5.23,军工、交运、环保等行业交替表现)。由于海外经济环境 及美国关税政策存在较大的不确定性,市场的波动性仍可能维持在较高 水平。在市场波动中,聚焦产业基本面逻辑,关注边际变化明显的机器 人、核电设备、算力企业整合等科技产业方向。(1)国内外机器人产 业的新变化不断涌现。特斯拉发布 Optimus 机器人的最新视频,Optimus 机器人顺利解决了倒垃圾、撕厨房纸、操作微波炉等任务,展现出较强 通用性。智元机器人发布全球首个基于机器人动作序列驱动的具身世界 模型 EVAC (EnerVerse-AC),以及具身世界模型评测基准 EWMBench。 这两项创新成果全面开源,旨在构建"低成本模拟 - 标准化评测 - 高 效送代"的全新开发范式,持续赋能全球具身智能研究,加速技术落地 与产业发展。(2)中美两国均加大在核电领域的投资。特朗普签署行 政令,要求能源 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the recent Sino-US Geneva trade talks, highlighting potential changes in tariffs and their implications for various industries, including textiles, home appliances, new energy, and electronics [5][40]. - The defense and military industry is identified as a key area of growth, with significant weekly gains observed in this sector, driven by international conflicts and increased military investments [5][23]. - The North Exchange 50 index has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 32.90%, outperforming other indices [5][18]. Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 index recorded a weekly increase of 5.46%, with significant contributions from small-cap stocks [5][14]. - The defense and military sector, along with agriculture and social services, saw the highest weekly weighted gains of 22.06%, 10.13%, and 8.71%, respectively [5][23]. - The trading volume for the North Exchange 50 reached 1245 billion, indicating improved market liquidity [5][34]. Valuation Levels - The valuation of North Exchange A-shares remains high, with a median PE ratio of 47.27 compared to 26.99 for all A-shares [5][36]. - The report notes that the high valuation levels are supported by the growth potential in the defense industry and the expansion of military trade opportunities [5][23]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to closely monitor developments from the Sino-US Geneva trade talks and the launch of Huawei's HarmonyOS 5 computers, as these events may significantly impact related industries [5][40][41]. - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as electronics, computing, and new energy for potential investment opportunities stemming from these developments [5][41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong operational resilience, with rapid growth in its TIDES business segment [2] - The chemical business shows steady revenue growth, while TIDES revenue reached 5.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 70.1% increase [7] - The company has a robust order backlog in the TIDES segment, benefiting from the rapid market uptake of GLP-1 peptide drugs [7] - Revenue from the top 20 global pharmaceutical companies reached 16.64 billion yuan, with a 24.1% year-on-year growth when excluding specific commercial production projects [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 42.88 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9.3% [3][7] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 39.241 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.7%, and a net profit of 9.451 billion yuan, down 1.6% [7] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 42.879 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 11.604 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 22.8% [3][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 3.27 yuan in 2024 to 4.02 yuan in 2025 [3][7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.7 in 2024 to 16.9 in 2025 [3][7] Business Performance - The TIDES business (oligonucleotides and peptides) is experiencing rapid growth, with a revenue increase of 70.1% [7] - The small molecule D&M business is also expected to grow steadily, with a revenue of 17.87 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 6.4% increase when excluding specific projects [7] - The company added 25 new commercial and clinical phase III projects in 2024, which are expected to drive future growth [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][39] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential investment opportunities brought by "Artificial Intelligence+" in the electronics industry [4] - It highlights the importance of high-end computing chips and lower-computing edge chips from a chip perspective, and suggests focusing on intelligent terminals that incorporate computing chips and AI large models from an application perspective [32] Summary by Sections 1. Chain-of-Thought (CoT) - CoT is a mechanism that enhances the performance of large language models (LLMs) in solving complex reasoning tasks by emphasizing detailed, step-by-step reasoning processes [5][6] - The concept was introduced in a paper published in January 2022, which demonstrated that incorporating reasoning steps into prompts can improve accuracy in reasoning tasks [6] 2. Chain of Draft (CoD) - CoD simplifies intermediate reasoning steps, reducing token usage and reasoning delays while maintaining accuracy comparable to CoT [8][9] - A paper published in March 2025 introduced CoD, which encourages LLMs to generate concise, information-dense outputs, thus making them more efficient for practical applications [8][9] 3. The Impossible Triangle of Large Models - The report discusses the "impossible triangle" of cost, effect, and performance in the development of large models, indicating that there are multiple paths to develop large models [30][31] - It compares the performance of GPT-4 and DeepSeek-R1, noting that DeepSeek-R1 improves reasoning speed at a lower cost, while GPT-4 achieves high accuracy at a higher cost [30][31] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-end computing chips and lower-computing edge chips, as well as intelligent terminals that utilize these chips and AI large models [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [30]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the Chinese capital market is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement," with significant reforms and a focus on serving the real economy and promoting high-quality development [2][23]. - The report outlines the achievements in building a multi-level capital market system, highlighting the restructuring of the institutional framework and policy innovations [7][9]. - Future policies will focus on cross-border product innovation and enhancing the support for new productive forces, which are crucial for China's modernization [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Achievements in Capital Market Reform - The establishment of a "1+N" policy framework has led to the revision of numerous regulations covering the entire chain from issuance to governance [7]. - Significant policies have been introduced to support technology enterprises, with the STAR Market raising over 1 trillion yuan in financing [9]. 2. Strengthened Regulation and Investor Protection - There has been a notable increase in the crackdown on financial fraud, with a significant rise in penalties and the establishment of a "blacklist" for financial fraud [8]. - Innovations in investor protection mechanisms include the normalization of collective lawsuits and the trial of a "prior compensation" system [8]. 3. Service to Technological Innovation - The financing scale for technology enterprises has expanded significantly, with the STAR Market's cumulative financing exceeding 1 trillion yuan [9]. - The report notes the rapid growth of companies in strategic emerging sectors, particularly in artificial intelligence [9]. 4. Market Ecology Optimization - Dividend payouts and share buybacks have reached historical highs, with the dividend amount increasing significantly year-on-year [10]. - There has been a marked increase in long-term capital entering the market, enhancing market stability [10]. 5. Future Directions - Future policies will include cross-border ETF pilot programs and the exploration of offshore issuance of RMB-denominated bonds [11]. - The report suggests enhancing the inclusiveness of the issuance and listing system, particularly for technology enterprises [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - Nvidia's revenue for Q4 of fiscal year 2025 increased by 77.94% year-on-year, reaching $39.331 billion. The revenue growth rate has shown significant fluctuations over the last 12 quarters, peaking at +265.28% in Q4 of fiscal year 2024 before declining to +77.94% in Q4 of fiscal year 2025 [2][7] - The gross margin for Nvidia has exhibited a downward trend over the four quarters of fiscal year 2025, decreasing from 78.35% in Q1 to 73.03% in Q4 [2][8] - Customer advances and unearned revenue related to hardware support, software support, cloud services, and license and development arrangements have shown a notable decrease, with figures dropping from $340 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2024 to $81 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2025 [3][12] - Nvidia's guidance for Q1 of fiscal year 2026 indicates expected revenue of $43 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 65.11% compared to Q1 of fiscal year 2025 [4][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.39% from March 10 to March 14, while the CITIC Electronics sector fell by 0.56%. Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 2.02%, and the CITIC Electronics sector has risen by 10.89% [4][15] Summary by Sections Nvidia Financial Performance - Nvidia's Q4 fiscal year 2025 revenue was $39.331 billion, a 77.94% increase year-on-year. The revenue growth rate has fluctuated significantly, with a peak of +265.28% in Q4 of fiscal year 2024 [2][7] - The gross margin for Nvidia has decreased from 78.35% in Q1 to 73.03% in Q4 of fiscal year 2025 [2][8] Customer Advances and Revenue - The customer advances and unearned revenue have decreased significantly, with values of $340 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2024 dropping to $81 million in Q4 of fiscal year 2025 [3][12] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.39% from March 10 to March 14, while the CITIC Electronics sector decreased by 0.56%. Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 2.02%, and the CITIC Electronics sector has increased by 10.89% [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on edge computing chips and smart terminals capable of loading AI large models [4][24]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][25] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the "Three-Year Action Plan to Optimize the Consumption Environment (2025-2027)" released by five departments, which aims to enhance consumption supply quality, optimize consumption order, improve consumer rights protection, and create a better consumption environment by 2027 [3][19] - Investment suggestions focus on companies benefiting from changing consumer habits, particularly in the context of a wealthier middle class and the demand for cultural and experiential products, indicating potential for upward valuation [5][19] - The report highlights strong expectations for policy implementation, suggesting that despite inflation concerns, attractive valuations exist for leading companies in sectors like medical aesthetics and liquor distribution [5][19] Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices saw increases during the week of February 17-21, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.97%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.25%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.99% [5][6] - The retail sector index decreased by 1.09%, underperforming the CSI 300, while the social services index increased by 0.88%, also underperforming the CSI 300 [5][8] Sector Performance - Within the retail sector, specialized chains performed the best, while internet e-commerce lagged behind; in social services, specialized services excelled, whereas hotel and catering services underperformed [5][11] Valuation Tracking - As of February 21, 2025, the retail sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreased, while the social services sector's PE ratio increased, with the retail sector's PE at the 68.24% percentile over the past decade [14][16]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a "看好" (optimistic) investment rating, indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [16]. Core Insights - 2025 marks the end of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan," with macroeconomic policy aimed at overcoming demand insufficiency being the core focus for the year [2][3]. - The Chinese economy is currently facing pressures from insufficient demand, with challenges in investment, consumption, and exports. The real estate market has been in deep adjustment for four years, affecting related industries like construction and building materials [4]. - The central economic work conference has prioritized "boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand" as the main task for 2025, with a GDP growth target of around 5% set during the national two sessions [5][6]. - With policy support, the economy is expected to see a moderate recovery in 2025, with an emphasis on structural optimization and high-quality development [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Current Challenges of Insufficient Demand - The Chinese economy is under pressure from insufficient demand, with investment, consumption, and exports all facing challenges. The real estate market's prolonged adjustment has negatively impacted related sectors [4]. 2. Policy Measures: Boosting Domestic Demand and Structural Optimization - The government plans to stimulate short-term demand through measures like consumption vouchers and tax incentives, while also focusing on enhancing the investment environment and increasing infrastructure spending [5]. - A total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new government debt is planned for 2025, primarily directed towards infrastructure and public services [5]. 3. National Two Sessions: High-Quality Development and Structural Reforms - The national two sessions have outlined a GDP growth target of around 5%, emphasizing a balance between stable growth and high-quality development [6]. - Continued support for supply-side structural reforms and a focus on emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology are highlighted [6]. 4. Economic Trend Outlook for 2025 - The economy is expected to recover moderately, with an increase in the share of consumption and investment, and a decrease in export dependency. Emerging industries are projected to maintain rapid growth [7][8]. - The real estate market is anticipated to stabilize gradually, alleviating downward pressure on prices [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's short-term performance is impacted by increased costs, but the innovative nuclear medicine research is progressing steadily [5][7] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 2.869 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.42%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 184 million yuan, down 12.35% [7] - The company anticipates marginal improvement in 2025 as the demand for heparin raw materials gradually recovers [7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price is 13.25 yuan, with a one-year high of 16.29 yuan and a low of 11.28 yuan [3] - The current P/E ratio is 59.44, and the P/B ratio is 2.44 [3] - The total share capital is 8.25 billion shares, with a total market value of 10.926 billion yuan [3] Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.141 billion yuan, 3.433 billion yuan, and 3.737 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.5%, 9.3%, and 8.9% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 235 million yuan, 286 million yuan, and 339 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 28.1%, 21.2%, and 18.8% respectively [6] - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 46.4, 38.3, and 32.2 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1][68] Core Insights - Leading chemical companies possess not only cost and technical advantages but also comprehensive accumulation and enhancement in the chemical system over years, maintaining a positive outlook on their profitability and investment value. Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, Longbai Group, and Yuanxing Energy [4] - Long-term global tire demand is steadily increasing, with domestic tire companies gaining market share due to cost-performance advantages. In the short term, domestic and international demand recovery, along with falling raw material and shipping costs, is expected to restore profitability. Recommended companies include Sailun Tire and Senqilin, which are rapidly expanding overseas [4] - High grain prices and steady growth in global arable land area indicate rigid demand for agricultural chemical products. The rigid demand for phosphate fertilizers combined with new energy needs suggests focusing on companies rich in phosphate resources such as Chuanheng Co., Yuntianhua, and Xingfa Group, as well as low-valuation leading pesticide companies like Yangnong Chemical [4] - After the implementation of quota-based production and sales of third-generation refrigerants in 2024, quotas will concentrate on leading companies, indicating a long-term upward cycle in the refrigerant industry amid growing global demand. Recommended companies include Juhua Co., Yonghe Co., Sanmei Co., and Jinshi Resources [4] Market Performance Summary - During the week of February 10-14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3346.72, with a weekly increase of 1.30%. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10749.46, with a weekly increase of 1.64%. The Small and Medium-sized Board 100 Index closed at 6686.15, with a weekly increase of 1.45%. The basic chemical sector (Shenwan) closed at 3362.32, with a weekly increase of 1.45%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.15 percentage points [6][7] - In the chemical sector, all seven secondary sub-industries showed positive growth, with 17 out of 23 tertiary sub-industries also showing positive growth [7] Chemical Price Review - Notable price increases for chemicals included NYMEX natural gas (+9.64%), acetone (+9.53%), and urea (+8.97%). The largest declines were seen in liquid chlorine (-14.02%) and biotin (-10.61%) [16][20] - The PVC price spread increased significantly by 34.75%, followed by DMC (+24.66%) and propylene oxide (+18.22%). The largest declines in price spreads were seen in bisphenol A (-42.45%) and adipic acid (-9.44%) [17][21]