[Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 | 最新收盘价（元） | 28.39 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低价（元） | 29.42/16.66 | | 市盈率（当前） | 20.56 | | 市净率（当前） | 1.48 | | 总股本（亿股） | 11.03 | | 总市值（亿元） | 313.21 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | 相关研究 [Table_Title] 磷矿景气维持，草甘膦景气回暖，持续增强资源保障 [Table_ReportDate] 兴发集团(600141)公司简评报告 | 2025.09.12 翟绪丽 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522010001 zhaixuli@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152683 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 核心观点 盈利预测 | [Table_Profit] | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营收（亿元） | 283.96 | ...

韦志超 首席经济学家 SAC 执证编号：S0110520110004 weizhichao@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152692 [Table_ReportDate] 宏观经济分析报告 | 2025.09.10 核心观点 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Rank] [Table_Authors] 相关研究 [Table_Title] 上周 A 股波动加剧，美国非农数据弱于预期 [Table_Summary] [Table_OtherReport] 经济趋稳，泛科技板块机遇渐显 近期关税问题的思考 继往开来——证监会两会记者招待 会的几点理解 ⚫ 上周（2025.09.01-2025.09.05）A 股走势波动加剧，全周万得全 A 指数 表现整体呈现"先涨后跌再修复"态势。上周一，权益市场延续上涨行 情，万得全 A 当天上涨 0.81%，科技板块仍是主要拉动力量。上周二， 权益市场出现大幅回调，或出于资金止盈及"稳市"保障临期的考虑， 股市走向开始回调，全天万得全 A 下跌 1.48%。上周三周四，权益市场 继续回调，周三科技板块仍有一定上涨，科创创业 50 指数 ...

邹序元 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110525040001 zouxuyuan@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-8115 2655 业政策与科技创新共振》（2025.09.02） 《北交所策略周报：反内卷、扩内需政策组 合拳持续发力，人形机器人走向场景化、自 主化》（2025.08.19） 气》（2025.08.12） 卷"，国常会"人工智能+"新政》（2025.08.04） [Table_Title] 科技与新能源协同互促，实现高景气共振 [市Ta场bl策e_略Rep报or告tDate] | 2025.09.09 核心观点 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Rank] [Table_Authors] [Table_Summary] 相关研究 [《Ta北bl交e_所Ot策he略rR周ep报or：t]"人工智能+"实现产 美国 8 月非农就业数据疲软，进一步提升美联储 9 月降息预期。美国 8 月非农就业仅增长 2.2 万人，不及市场预期的 7.5 万人。6 月非农就业 数据由此前的增加 2.7 万人下修至减少 1.3 万人，为自 2020 年以来首次 出现月度就业人数 ...

翟绪丽 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522010001 zhaixuli@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152683 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 | 最新收盘价（元） | 27.00 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低价（元） | 28.37/16.83 | | 市盈率（当前） | 9.37 | | 市净率（当前） | 2.18 | | 总股本（亿股） | 18.23 | | 总市值（亿元） | 492.21 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | [Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 相关研究 [Table_Title] 2025H1 经营业绩稳健，磷化工景气度有望维持 [Table_ReportDate] 云天化(600096)公司简评报告 | 2025.09.09 核心观点 盈利预测 | [Table_Profit] | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营收（亿元） | 615.37 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operational efficiency and has good growth potential in its CSO (Contract Sales Organization) business [4] - Key products have maintained stable growth, with significant sales increases in certain categories due to marketing reforms and favorable policy changes [6] - The company has a strong foundation in its CSO business, with ongoing collaborations expected to contribute to revenue growth [6] - Earnings forecasts indicate a slight decline in revenue for 2025, followed by a recovery and growth in subsequent years, with net profit expected to grow steadily [5][6] Financial Summary - The latest closing price is 3.39 CNY, with a one-year high of 4.08 CNY and a low of 1.80 CNY [3] - The current P/E ratio is 31.43, and the P/B ratio is 3.72 [3] - Total shares outstanding are 2.246 billion, with a total market capitalization of 7.613 billion CNY [3] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 24.41 billion CNY, with a slight decline in 2025 to 24.37 billion CNY, followed by growth to 27.51 billion CNY in 2026 and 30.80 billion CNY in 2027 [5] - Net profit for 2024 is estimated at 2.33 billion CNY, increasing to 2.56 billion CNY in 2025, 2.91 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.28 billion CNY in 2027 [5] - The company’s sales expense ratio has decreased by 8.30 percentage points year-on-year, and management expenses have decreased by 21.58% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] Core Views - The report highlights that the negative impact of policy adjustments on the medical service industry is concentrated, but various business segments are expected to gradually stabilize and recover [3][5] - The company's medical service revenue for the first half of 2025 was 1.378 billion yuan, down 14.84% year-on-year, but the gross margin for medical services increased by 0.99 percentage points, indicating stable profitability [5] - The report anticipates that the aging population will continue to drive demand for medical services, leading to a potential recovery in the company's medical service business [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are 3.366 billion yuan, 3.649 billion yuan, and 3.946 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -11.4%, 8.4%, and 8.1% respectively [4][5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 87 million yuan, 106 million yuan, and 140 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of -24.3%, 21.6%, and 32.7% respectively [4][5] - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 83.9, 68.9, and 52.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] Business Performance - The company's pharmaceutical and medical product revenue for the first half of 2025 was 208 million yuan, down 44.66% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of centralized procurement [5] - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical business may stabilize as the company increases its efforts in grassroots market development and expands its market coverage [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has shown continuous growth in innovative products, with a notable performance in the skin health line [4] - The company reported a revenue of 4.002 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 941 million yuan, up 3.38% [5] - The sales of exclusive/brand and innovative products increased by 20.6% year-on-year, accounting for 62.1% of total revenue [5] - The company is advancing its innovative drug pipeline, with several products in various stages of clinical trials [5] - The skin health line (Demeg Pharmaceuticals) achieved a revenue of 498 million yuan, a significant increase of 104.3% [5] - The company plans to spin off Demeg Pharmaceuticals for independent listing, which is expected to help in the revaluation of its skin care product line [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 8.053 billion yuan, 9.439 billion yuan, and 11.651 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.685 billion yuan, 1.956 billion yuan, and 2.465 billion yuan [6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is focused on innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in cardiovascular, central nervous system, digestive, and renal fields [5] Financial Performance - The company’s current P/E ratio is 18.12, with a market capitalization of 32.787 billion HKD [5] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 7.8%, 17.2%, and 23.4% respectively [6] Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline with several innovative drugs under development, including those for chronic kidney disease and asthma [5] Market Position - The company has established a strong market presence with a comprehensive product matrix and experienced commercialization capabilities [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The commercialization value of Oubatinib is being realized, and the pipeline of innovative drugs is steadily advancing [4] - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 731 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 74.26%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -30.09 million yuan [8] - Oubatinib's sales in the hematological oncology indications are rapidly increasing, with significant growth potential in sales expected [8] - The company has multiple innovative drugs in development, with a rich product pipeline and several catalysts expected in the next 1-3 years [8] Financial Summary - The company’s total share capital is 1.765 billion shares, with a total market value of 53.592 billion yuan [2] - The projected operating revenues for 2025 to 2027 are 1.51 billion yuan, 1.914 billion yuan, and 2.452 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 49.6%, 26.7%, and 28.2% respectively [9] - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is -259 million yuan, -241 million yuan, and -251 million yuan [9] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is -256.56, with projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being -207.3, -222.0, and -213.9 respectively [2][9]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market indices have performed relatively well since 2025, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 25.51%, the Hang Seng Technology Index by 22.89%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 23.98% from the beginning of 2025 to July 30, 2025 [3][17]. - The improvement in liquidity in the Hong Kong market is significantly driven by the increase in southbound capital, which has seen a total trading volume of 14.63 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 220.41% [3][21]. - The valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains attractive, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Technology Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index having TTM P/E ratios of 11.49, 22.24, and 10.49 respectively, which are lower compared to the CSI 300 Index [3][31]. Group 2 - The "Dividend +" strategy is based on the high dividend yield and low valuation advantages of Hong Kong stocks, particularly state-owned enterprises, which generally have higher dividend rates [3][46]. - The "Dividend + Stability" strategy focuses on selecting stocks with high dividend yields and stable earnings, with criteria including a TTM dividend yield greater than 4.5% and a market capitalization of over 30 billion RMB [3][55]. - The "Dividend + Economic Recovery" strategy targets investment opportunities in the power sector, which is currently experiencing a recovery due to stable coal prices and increasing electricity demand [3][59]. Group 3 - The power industry is in a recovery phase, with coal prices stabilizing and electricity demand increasing, which enhances the profitability of power companies [3][60][64]. - The implementation of a two-part electricity pricing mechanism starting in 2024 is expected to support the profitability of coal power companies by allowing them to recover fixed costs [3][64]. - The renewable energy sector is also expected to benefit from improved cash flow and reduced accounts receivable, which will enhance dividend capabilities [3][70][71].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has maintained stable sales of its core product, Xinhuasu, and is continuously developing a "second growth curve" through the introduction of new products and expansion into new markets [5][7] - The company reported a revenue of 1.651 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 2.23%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.96% to 567 million yuan [7] - The company expects Xinhuasu sales to stabilize in 2025, with new production capacity set to be released, which will help alleviate production bottlenecks [7] - The company is also focusing on expanding its product range, with other products generating a revenue of 192 million yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of 18.83% [7] - The company has invested in Chen Tai Pharmaceutical, acquiring a 13.04% stake, and has signed an exclusive distribution agreement for Zolotinin, which is expected to enhance its product portfolio [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2.929 billion yuan in 2025, 3.168 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.513 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 4.4%, 8.2%, and 10.9% respectively [6][7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 983 million yuan in 2025, 1.045 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.152 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of -6.5%, 6.3%, and 10.2% respectively [6][7] - The company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 15.6, 14.6, and 13.3 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7]