[Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 王斌 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522030002 wangbin3@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152644 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 相关研究 [Table_Title] 对外许可交易持续落地，创新药管线不断兑现 [Table_ReportDate] 恒瑞医药(600276)公司简评报告 | 2025.11.05 核心观点 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Authors] [Table_Summary] ⚫ 事件：公司发布 2025 年三季报，2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 231.88 亿元（+14.85%），归属于上市公司股东的净利润为 57.51 亿元 （+24.50%），归属于上市公司股东的扣非净利润为 55.89 亿元 （+21.08%）。 ⚫ 对外许可交易持续落地，有望成为常态化收入来源。2025 年第三季度 公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额为 48.10 亿元（同比+209.78%），主 要是由于本报告期药品销售及海外授权首付款收到的现金增加；第三季 度末公司合同负债 ...

[Table_Rank] 评级： 买入 翟绪丽 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522010001 zhaixuli@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152683 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 | 最新收盘价（元） | 29.80 | | --- | --- | | 一年内最高/最低价（元） | 29.93/19.01 | | 市盈率（当前） | 18.89 | | 市净率（当前） | 2.24 | | 总股本（亿股） | 18.23 | | 总市值（亿元） | 543.25 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | 相关研究 [Table_Title] 第三季度磷铵出口量价齐升，助力公司业绩创新高 [Table_ReportDate] 云天化(600096)公司简评报告 | 2025.10.31 核心观点 盈利预测 | [Table_Profit] | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营收（亿元） | 615.37 | 5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is benefiting from the continuous rise in refrigerant prices, which has led to significant performance improvements during a high prosperity cycle [2][5] - The company reported a revenue of 44.29 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 45.72%, and a net profit of 15.91 billion yuan, up 183.66% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the long-term prosperity cycle of refrigerants, with a projected net profit of 20.49 billion yuan in 2025, 24.60 billion yuan in 2026, and 28.93 billion yuan in 2027 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 40.40 billion yuan in 2024, 61.35 billion yuan in 2025, 67.31 billion yuan in 2026, and 74.59 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 21.2%, 51.9%, 9.7%, and 10.8% [3][7] - The company's net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of 7.79 billion yuan in 2024, 20.49 billion yuan in 2025, 24.60 billion yuan in 2026, and 28.93 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 178.4%, 163.3%, 20.0%, and 17.6% respectively [3][7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.28 yuan in 2024, 3.36 yuan in 2025, 4.03 yuan in 2026, and 4.74 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 45, 17, 14, and 12 [3][7] Market Dynamics - The company has seen a significant increase in the average selling price of refrigerants, with prices for R32, R134a, and R125 rising by 59.99%, 59.09%, and 46.06% year-on-year respectively in the third quarter of 2025 [6] - The company holds substantial production quotas for various refrigerants, positioning it well to benefit from the industry's recovery and growth [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][3] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 347.71 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.73%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 37.55 billion yuan, up 1.69% year-on-year. However, Q3 revenue was 113.11 billion yuan, down 12.15% year-on-year and net profit was 10.11 billion yuan, down 38.21% year-on-year [7] - The decline in Q3 performance was attributed to equipment maintenance and non-recurring losses, although the net profit excluding non-recurring items showed a quarter-on-quarter increase [7] - The company is a leader in the C2 and C3 light hydrocarbon cracking sector, demonstrating resilience in operations during the cyclical downturn and potential for earnings recovery during the cyclical upturn [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 456.48 billion yuan in 2024, 505.91 billion yuan in 2025, 588.46 billion yuan in 2026, and 681.90 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 10.0%, 10.8%, 16.3%, and 15.9% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 60.72 billion yuan in 2024, 56.88 billion yuan in 2025, 74.98 billion yuan in 2026, and 95.25 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 26.8%, -6.3%, 31.8%, and 27.0% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.80 yuan in 2024, 1.69 yuan in 2025, 2.23 yuan in 2026, and 2.83 yuan in 2027 [4] Market and Price Analysis - The current closing price of the company's stock is 17.90 yuan, with a one-year high of 22.69 yuan and a low of 15.04 yuan [1] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 17.79 and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 1.88 [1]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of vertical integration across the entire AI industry chain, highlighting the growing importance of capital and energy in the AI competition [1][14] - Major AI companies like OpenAI and Alibaba are rapidly integrating chips, cloud computing, data centers, large models, and downstream applications, leading to increased demand for computing power, electricity, and capital [14][15] - The report suggests a focus on the resonance between supply and demand sides to overcome market challenges and achieve a reversal from the current state of internal competition [18][19] Economic Overview - The GDP for Q3 2025 reached 35.45 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, indicating overall economic stability [10] - Industrial output in September 2025 saw a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, marking the highest growth rate for Q3 2025 [10] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% as of September 2025, with real estate and infrastructure investments being significant drag factors [10] AI Industry Developments - OpenAI is establishing a full-stack AI ecosystem by synchronously advancing models, products, and computing power, including partnerships with major chip manufacturers and investments in data centers [14] - Alibaba is also positioning itself as a full-stack AI service provider, with developments in AI chips, cloud computing, and applications, including the launch of AI-powered smart glasses [15] - The report highlights the importance of domestic AI advancements in computing performance and energy efficiency, as well as the evolution of edge AI and embodied intelligence technologies [19] Investment Recommendations - The report advises focusing on emerging industries such as photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles, particularly in the context of domestic substitution policies and technological advancements [19] - It suggests monitoring the AI industry chain, including chips, servers, liquid cooling, power supplies, and downstream AI applications, to identify potential investment opportunities [19] Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 2.74% during the week of October 20-24, 2025, indicating a rise in market activity [20][21] - The North Exchange 50 Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 41.84%, although it remains lower than other indices such as the Wind Micro Index and the ChiNext Index [22] - The report notes significant volatility in the North Exchange 50 Index compared to the overall market [23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is benefiting from the continuous rise in refrigerant prices, indicating a sustained high prosperity cycle [5][7] - The company maintains a leading position in the refrigerant market with significant production quotas, capturing a substantial market share [7] - Revenue and net profit forecasts for the company show strong growth, with expected net profits of 45.04 billion, 58.85 billion, and 68.14 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 203.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.89%, and a net profit of 32.48 billion, up 160.22% year-on-year [7] - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 18.4% for 2024, 17.9% for 2025, and 9.0% for 2026 [6][8] - The average price of key refrigerants has increased significantly, with R32, R134a, and R125 showing year-on-year price increases of 59.99%, 59.09%, and 46.06% respectively [7] Market Position - The company holds a production quota of 38,900 tons for HCFC-22, accounting for 26.10% of the national total, and a quota of 299,800 tons for HFCs, representing 39.6% of the market [7] - The company’s competitive advantage is reinforced by its comprehensive product range and leading market position [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue benefiting from the high prosperity of the refrigerant industry, with a maintained "Buy" rating based on its market leadership and growth potential [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year revenue increase in Q3, demonstrating strong operational resilience despite short-term fluctuations [4][6] - The company has completed multiple new projects, including a significant ethylene facility, which supports future growth [6] - The overall performance is impacted by declining product prices due to weak downstream demand, despite increased production volumes [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1,442.26 billion yuan, down 2.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 91.57 billion yuan, down 17.45% year-on-year [6] - In Q3 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 533.24 billion yuan, up 5.52% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30.35 billion yuan, up 3.96% year-on-year [6] - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 13.44%, a decrease of 1.94 percentage points year-on-year [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2027 are 1,820.69 billion yuan, 1,988.63 billion yuan, 2,143.50 billion yuan, and 2,341.99 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 0.4%, 9.2%, 7.8%, and 9.3% [5] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 130.33 billion yuan, 135.19 billion yuan, 162.45 billion yuan, and 207.23 billion yuan, with growth rates of -22.5%, 3.7%, 20.2%, and 27.6% [5] Market Position and Product Performance - The company’s polyurethane segment saw sales volumes of 454 and 458 million tons, up 7.84% and 11.71% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The petrochemical segment's sales volumes were 478 and 460 million tons, up 17.44% and 13.02% year-on-year, respectively [6] - The average prices for major products in the polyurethane, petrochemical, and fine chemicals segments decreased by 9.00%, 15.32%, and 8.12% year-on-year, respectively [6] Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to maintain strong operational resilience despite being in a cyclical industry, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 4.31 yuan, 5.17 yuan, and 6.60 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly improved due to the growth in olefin production and sales, with a notable advantage in coal-to-olefin processes [3][6] - The company reported a revenue of 355.45 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 46.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 89.50 billion yuan, up 97.27% year-on-year [7] - The company has successfully achieved full production capacity at its Inner Mongolia project, leading to substantial increases in polyethylene, polypropylene, and EVA sales [7] - The cost advantages of coal-to-olefin production are expected to enhance profitability, supported by a decline in coal prices [7] - Future growth is anticipated from new project developments, including the Ningdong Phase IV olefin project and others in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 329.83 billion yuan, 483.40 billion yuan, 547.22 billion yuan, and 582.04 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 13.2%, 46.6%, 13.2%, and 6.4% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 63.38 billion yuan, 121.13 billion yuan, 139.62 billion yuan, and 152.89 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 12.2%, 91.1%, 15.3%, and 9.5% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.86 yuan, 1.65 yuan, 1.90 yuan, and 2.08 yuan for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4] Market Performance - The company's stock closed at 18.10 yuan, with a one-year high of 18.58 yuan and a low of 13.16 yuan [1] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 12.35, and the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.89 [1]

Group 1: Key Concepts from the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session - The session emphasizes "new quality productivity" and "high-level technological self-reliance" as core concepts for the 15th Five-Year Plan[8] - The focus is on technological innovation as the main line to ensure safety and resilience, promoting high-quality development and common prosperity[8] - The transition from a factor-driven growth model to an innovation-driven model is highlighted, marking a fundamental shift in economic growth[9] Group 2: Strategic Industry Development - The proposal aims to develop emerging pillar industries, accelerating the growth of sectors like new energy, new materials, and aerospace, potentially creating several trillion-level markets[11] - Hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion are identified as strategic future energy sectors, with significant market potential expected to reach trillion-level scales during the 15th Five-Year Plan[13] - The "three new" economy's contribution to GDP is projected to exceed 18% by 2024, indicating a strong focus on innovation-driven growth[11] Group 3: Policy and Market Implications - The government will provide strong support in planning, funding, and research for emerging industries, particularly hydrogen and nuclear fusion, over the next decade[14] - The integration of new energy technologies with manufacturing and smart control is expected to enhance the added value of manufacturing[12] - Risks include potential misinterpretation of policies and outcomes not meeting expectations, which could impact industry growth[15]

Investment Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Positive" [1][33] Core Viewpoints - The source of innovation in the pharmaceutical industry is improving, and short-term fluctuations do not change long-term value. The ESMO 2025 conference highlighted 23 "Late-Breaking Abstracts" led by Chinese scholars, with 3 significant results presented at the highest academic level, indicating China's growing position in global pharmaceutical innovation [5][26] - Domestic innovative drugs are showing competitive clinical data, with several products demonstrating global competitiveness. For instance, the sac-TMT from Kelun Biotech is expected to be a strong competitor for EGFR mutation NSCLC after EGFR-TKI resistance [5][6] - Investment suggestions focus on shifting attention from "expectations" to "realization" of clinical data and commercialization. Key directions include companies with validated R&D and commercialization capabilities, those entering performance release periods, and those with excellent clinical data pipelines [5][27] Summary by Sections Section 1: Kelun Biotech - The sac-TMT is expected to be a strong competitor for EGFR mutation NSCLC after EGFR-TKI treatment failure, with significant clinical data presented at ESMO 2025 [6][8] Section 2: Kangfang Biotech - The HARMONi-6 study results met expectations, showing significant PFS benefits compared to the control group, with ongoing overseas clinical research updates anticipated [9][10] Section 3: Basestone Pharmaceuticals - The CS2009's efficacy and safety have been preliminarily validated, showing promise as a next-generation I-O therapy competitor [12][14] Section 4: Shouyao Holdings - The SY-5007 demonstrated significant efficacy advantages in RET fusion-positive NSCLC patients, with a low treatment-related discontinuation rate [16][18] Section 5: Jinfang Pharmaceuticals - The GFH375 showed promising efficacy in treating KRAS G12D mutation pancreatic cancer, with a notable objective response rate [19][21] Section 6: Aosaikang - The ASKB589 combined with chemotherapy and PD-1 inhibitors showed significant survival benefits in advanced gastric cancer patients [23][25]