[Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 韩杨 科技行业分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110525060002 hanyang@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152681 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） 相关研究 [Table_Title] 算力链高景气，消费电子迎 AI 新周期 [Table_ReportDate] 电子 | 行业深度报告 | 2025.12.23 核心观点 AI 算力：（1）北美算力：AI 大模型算力需求持续刚性扩张，北美算力 产业链在服务器组装、高端 PCB、光模块等环节具备成熟产能与技术壁 垒，是算力基础设施建设的核心支撑环节，建议关注：工业富联、沪电 股份，相关标的：胜宏科技、景旺电子、中际旭创、新易盛、天孚通信。 （2）国产算力：AI 大模型与国内芯片厂已逐步形成技术协同的完整生 态，叠加国产芯片厂产能持续扩张，国产算力芯片在自主可控+供应链 安全的双重逻辑下，有望加速打入国内算力基础设施供应链，建议关注： 北方华创、兆易创新，相关标的：中芯国际、寒武纪-U、海光信息。 AI 端侧：（1）AI 手机：AI 手机成为消费电子"换机+创新"的核心载体 ...

韦志超 首席经济学家 SAC 执证编号：S0110520110004 weizhichao@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152692 [Table_Title] 资本市场赋能新质生产力的作用机制与政策启示 [宏Ta观ble经_R济ep分ort析Da报te]告 | 2025.12.17 核心观点 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Rank] [Table_Authors] [Table_Summary] [Table首_O创th证erR券ep宏or观t]经济分析报告：美联 储决策迷雾未散，市场波动加大 首创证券周报：消费股表现回暖， 社融数据不及预期 首创证券宏观经济分析报告：AI 分 歧加剧，仍需边走边看 科技创新和产业创新是发展新质生产力的基本路径。从理论上看，新质 生产力可以被理解为现代经济增长理论所描述的"技术内生化-制度激 励-资本结构"三要素耦合的结果。 相关研究 从功能机制看，资本市场在新质生产力中首先承担的是技术价值的"价 格发现"功能。高技术创新具有高不确定性、高沉没成本和强信息不对 称等特征，单一依赖银行信贷难以有效识别其潜在价值。有效的资本市 场能 ...

[科Ta技ble创_T新itle不] 断深化，新质生产力蓄势跃升 ——2016—2025 年中央经济工作会议创新部署的十年演进 [宏Ta观bl经e_济Rep分or析tD报ate告] | 2025.12.16 核心观点 韦志超 首席经济学家 SAC 执证编号：S0110520110004 weizhichao@sczq.com.cn 电话：86-10-81152692 请务必仔细阅读本报告最后部分的重要法律声明 [Table_Rank] [Table_Authors] | 从"支撑作用"到"核心引擎"：科技战略定位的根本跃升 | 1 | 1 | 从"补短板"到"塑优势"：创新政策重心的实质转向 | 2 | 1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从"给资源"到"建机制"：创新制度安排的持续深化 | 3 | 2 | 政策逻辑转变的现实启示：地方政府、企业与资本市场 | 4 | 2 | 宏观经济分析报告 证券研究报告 [Tabl通e_过Su对mm2a0r1y6] 至 2025 年中央经济工作会议中科技创新相关部署的梳理， 可以看出科技战略定位经历了从"支撑作用"到"核 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][7] Core Insights - The company has achieved significant results from its marketing model transformation, optimizing operational efficiency. The sales expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2025 was 47.19%, a decrease of 2.69 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved operational efficiency [7] - The innovative drug pipeline has established a matrix layout, with the company's independent innovation capabilities being validated. Key drugs are in various stages of clinical trials, including KC1036 in Phase III and KC1086 completing Phase I [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 9.11 billion yuan, 10.63 billion yuan, and 12.14 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.4%, 16.7%, and 14.2% respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.69 billion yuan, 2.03 billion yuan, and 2.42 billion yuan, with growth rates of 299.8%, 20.2%, and 19.2% respectively [7] Financial Summary - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 44.40 yuan, with a market capitalization of 70.75 billion yuan and a total share capital of 1.59 billion shares [1] - The company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 123.87, and the price-to-book (PB) ratio is 2.21 [1] - The revenue for 2024 is projected at 8.25 billion yuan, with a revenue growth rate of -10.3%. The net profit for the same year is expected to be 0.43 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 71.9% [4][8]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Trends - The core driver of the global market is the significant weakening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, leading to liquidity concerns and a shift towards risk-averse strategies[3] - The performance of various assets has formed a risk-averse hierarchy: USD > US Treasuries > Gold/Silver > Equity Assets > Bitcoin[10] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, despite a strong addition of 119,000 jobs, which exceeded market expectations of 51,000[15] Group 2: AI Sector Insights - Market focus is shifting from AI infrastructure development to the verification of AI application commercialization capabilities[16] - Nvidia's Q4 performance and revenue guidance exceeded expectations, indicating sustained high demand for AI infrastructure[16] - Google’s stock was the only one among the "Magnificent Seven" to rise, increasing by 8.4%, due to its effective response to investor concerns about AI profitability[22] Group 3: Market Volatility and Risks - Increased volatility in US stock and bond markets has been observed since November, influenced by market microstructure factors[17] - The investment-grade credit spread in the US has risen from low levels since November, reflecting cautious market sentiment regarding profitability in the AI sector[18] - Key risks include uncertainties in the Federal Reserve's policy path, slower-than-expected AI commercialization processes, and external shocks[21]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has shown impressive performance driven by high demand for gold investments, with a significant revenue increase of 33.41% year-on-year to 20.472 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [5][4] - The gross margin improved in Q3 2025, leading to enhanced profitability, with a net profit margin of 3.67% in Q3 2025, up from 3.57% in Q2 2025 [5][4] - The company is actively expanding its channel layout, with a focus on local marketing and brand promotion, including the opening of new stores [5][4] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A at 20.233 billion yuan, 2025E at 25.346 billion yuan, 2026E at 28.384 billion yuan, and 2027E at 31.337 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 22.2%, 25.3%, 12.0%, and 10.4% respectively [5][6] - The net profit for the company is expected to reach 7.97 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 15 [5][6] - The company’s total market capitalization is currently 116.43 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 778 million shares [3][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][11] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.633 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.46%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 6.46% to 583 million yuan [4][5] - The company aims for a clear growth target over the next three years, with net profit growth rates set at no less than 16.52%, 24.22%, and 33.84% for the years 2026 to 2028 [5][6] - The company is a leading global manufacturer of textile accessories, accelerating its international market expansion and enhancing its smart manufacturing capabilities to support high-quality growth [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.295 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.86%, and a net profit of 214 million yuan, up 3.03% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.01 percentage points to 43.71% year-on-year, driven by changes in product and customer structure, as well as economies of scale [5][6] - The financial expense ratio increased primarily due to exchange rate fluctuations, with a net loss of 22.86 million yuan from foreign exchange in the first three quarters [5][6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for the company are as follows: 4.674 billion yuan in 2024, 4.816 billion yuan in 2025, 5.330 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.919 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 19.7%, 3.0%, 10.7%, and 11.1% respectively [5][6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 700 million yuan in 2024, 675 million yuan in 2025, 766 million yuan in 2026, and 870 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 25.5%, -3.7%, 13.6%, and 13.7% respectively [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][3] Core Insights - The company has raised its revenue guidance for 2025, reflecting confidence in growth, with a target increase of 12%-16% compared to the previous 10%-15% [7] - The company's operating quality continues to improve, with significant growth in core business segments and a notable increase in new orders [7] - The financial forecasts for 2025 to 2027 indicate a steady revenue growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 140.53 billion yuan, 160.34 billion yuan, and 180.90 billion yuan respectively [4][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 100.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 11.41 billion yuan, down 19.8% [7] - The company reported a significant improvement in quarterly performance, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 36.45 billion yuan, a 13.4% year-on-year increase and a 9.1% quarter-on-quarter increase [7] Business Segments - The laboratory services segment generated revenue of 60.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a gross margin of 45.1%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase year-on-year [7] - The CMC business segment reported revenue of 22.93 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 32.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating potential for further improvement [7] Profitability Forecast - The projected net profit for 2025 is 16.69 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -6.9%, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 with growth rates of 28.2% and 19.9% respectively [4][7] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.94 yuan in 2025, increasing to 1.20 yuan in 2026 and 1.44 yuan in 2027 [4][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has achieved a revenue of 23.188 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.85%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is 5.751 billion yuan, up 24.50% year-on-year [5] - Continuous licensing transactions are expected to become a normalized source of income, with a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities, reaching 4.810 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 209.78% [5] - The innovative drug pipeline is consistently delivering results, with several new drug applications being accepted, indicating stable revenue growth from innovative drugs [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 231.88 billion yuan and a net profit of 57.51 billion yuan, with a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities [5] - The company expects revenues for 2025 to be 328.11 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17.2% [6] Drug Development and Licensing - The company has signed licensing agreements for innovative drugs, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [5] - The innovative drug pipeline includes several promising candidates, with applications for new indications being accepted [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 to 2027 shows expected revenues of 328.11 billion yuan, 366.27 billion yuan, and 416.46 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 89.38 billion yuan, 105.51 billion yuan, and 122.94 billion yuan [6] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to decrease from 46.0 in 2025 to 33.4 in 2027, indicating potential for investment [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][3] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in performance due to the increase in both volume and price of phosphate exports in the third quarter [3][7] - The company has focused on its core business, leading to improved overall profitability despite a decline in revenue from its trading and logistics segment [7][6] - The company benefits from a favorable phosphate rock market, with high prices expected to continue, supported by significant phosphate reserves [7][6] Financial Performance - In the third quarter, the company reported revenue of 375.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.53%, but a net profit of 47.29 billion yuan, an increase of 6.89% [7] - The third quarter saw phosphate sales of 145.64 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.93% [7] - The company’s gross margin improved to 20.85%, up 3.86 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin reached 13.61%, up 2.70 percentage points [7] Profit Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 56.49 billion yuan, 60.41 billion yuan, and 63.48 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.10, 3.31, and 3.48 yuan per share [4][7] - The projected PE ratios for the same period are 9, 9, and 8 times [4][7] Market Position - The company is recognized as a significant player in the phosphate mining and fertilizer production industry, combining cyclical and growth characteristics [7][6] - The domestic phosphate rock price remains high, with a reference price of 1017 yuan per ton as of October 30, 2025 [7]