[Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 [Table_Authors] 岳清慧 汽车首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110521050003 yueqinghui@sczq.com.cn [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 6-Nov18-Jan 31-Mar 12-Jun 24-Aug 5-Nov 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 汽车行业周报：特斯拉 Q3 盈利超预 期，预计明年交付量增加二至三成 汽车行业周报：十月前两周乘用车销 量同环比增长，高阶智能驾驶有望创 新突破 汽车行业周报：9 月乘用车市场回暖， 看好汽车板块 [Table_Title] 2024 美国大选对汽车行业影响 [Table_ReportDate] 汽车 | 行业简评报告 | 2024.11.06 核心观点 [Table_Summary] ⚫ 美国大选对汽车行业的影响主要体现在政策制定、国际贸易等方面。 ⚫ 环境保护政策对新能源汽车发展影响：据中国汽车报，特朗普更偏向 支持传统能源，他在 2017~2021 年美国总统任期内 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Trump has announced his victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, which may have significant implications for the technology sector [2]. - Trump's technology policy is characterized by a dual logic of "self-reliance" and "weakening China," focusing on strategic competition with China as a primary concern [3]. - The U.S. semiconductor industry is reportedly removing Chinese suppliers from its supply chain due to increasing restrictions from Washington [4]. - In September 2023, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced new regulations to strengthen export controls on advanced semiconductor manufacturing and related technologies [5]. - The report suggests that U.S. restrictions may inadvertently stimulate China's technological self-innovation capabilities, emphasizing the need for China to focus on independent innovation in the semiconductor sector [6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the impact of the 2024 U.S. presidential election on the electronics industry, particularly in relation to semiconductor policies and competition with China [2][3]. Regulatory Environment - New regulations from the U.S. Department of Commerce are tightening controls on key technologies, which may affect global supply chains and innovation dynamics [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on critical segments of the semiconductor supply chain and leading companies in niche markets [6].

[Table_Title] 三季报业绩增速中位数：电子行业优于全部 A 股 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

[Table_Summary] [Table_Rank] 评级： 看好 [Table_Authors] 何立中 电子行业首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110522110002 helizhong@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-81152682 [Table_Chart] 市场指数走势（最近 1 年） -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 6-Nov17-Jan 29-Mar 9-Jun20-Aug 31-Oct 电子 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 电子：关注科创板指数中权重较大的 半导体公司 电子：9 月集成电路进出口 ASP 均有 上涨 台积电 9 月营收同比增长 39.6% [Table_Title] 9 月国内手机出货量下降 23.8% [Table_ReportDate] 电子 | 行业简评报告 | 2024.11.05 核心观点 ⚫ 9 月国内手机出货量同比下降 23.8% 根据中国信通院公布数据，2024 年 9 月国内市场手机出货量 2537.1 万 部，同比下降 23.8%，其中，5G 手机 2231.6 万部，同比下降 22.3%， ...

[Table_Title] 水泥玻璃价格上涨，建材行业整体表现稳健 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The report highlights stable demand for compound fertilizers, with a significant year-on-year profit increase in Q3 2024 [4] - The company achieved a revenue of 12.367 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.05%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.113 billion yuan, up 12.37% year-on-year [4] - The average price of compound fertilizers in Q3 2024 was 2,925.38 yuan/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.81% [4] - The company is expected to maintain steady performance due to its leading position in the industry and cost advantages [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.948 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.92%, and a net profit of 375 million yuan, up 24.88% year-on-year [4] - For the first nine months of 2024, the company maintained a gross margin of 16.10% and a net margin of 9.04%, both showing improvements compared to the previous year [5] Market Position and Projects - The company is expected to benefit from new projects, including a 150,000 tons/year water-soluble fertilizer project and a 300,000 tons/year acid fertilizer project, which began trial production at the end of 2023 [6] - The company’s phosphate rock capacity is projected to increase significantly, enhancing its self-sufficiency in raw materials [6] Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.398 billion yuan, 1.575 billion yuan, and 1.734 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.11 yuan, 1.25 yuan, and 1.38 yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 147.604 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 11.35% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.67% year-on-year to 11.093 billion yuan [2] - The revenue growth was driven by increased product output and sales, but the profit decline in Q3 was due to narrowed price spreads and equipment maintenance [2] - Capital expenditures have been consistently high, reaching 43.098 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 31.97%, supporting long-term growth [2] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory despite short-term fluctuations, with projected net profits of 15.267 billion yuan, 18.914 billion yuan, and 22.404 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company experienced a decline in net profit due to lower product prices and maintenance shutdowns, with quarterly net profits of 4.157 billion yuan, 4.017 billion yuan, and 2.919 billion yuan for Q1, Q2, and Q3 respectively [2] - The company’s capital expenditures have been robust, with a total of 297.54 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a slight increase of 1.10% year-on-year [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for revenue is 175.361 billion yuan for 2023, increasing to 195.812 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 11.7% [3] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 15.267 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 9.2% compared to 2023, but expected to rebound with growth rates of 23.9% and 18.4% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully increased production capacity, with significant expansions in its MDI facilities, which are expected to enhance revenue generation in the long term [2] - Despite being in a cyclical industry, the company’s strong capital expenditure and self-sustaining growth model support its long-term investment appeal [2]

[Table_Rank] 评级： 增持 [Table_Authors] 曲小溪 首席分析师 SAC 执证编号：S0110521080001 quxiaoxi@sczq.com.cn 电话：010-8115 2676 [市场指数走势（最近 Table_Chart] 1 年） -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 1-Nov13-Jan 26-Mar 7-Jun19-Aug 31-Oct 科德数控 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------| | [Table_BaseData] 公司基本数据 | | | 最新收盘价（元） | 70.50 | | 一年内最高 / 最低价（元） | 88.99/54.69 | | 市盈率（当前） | 65.51 | | 市净率（当前） | 4.05 | | 总股本（亿股） | 1.02 | | 总市值（亿元） | 71.70 | | 资料来源：聚源数据 | | 相关研究 [Table_OtherReport] 科德数控 2024 年半年报点评：2024Q2 业绩高增， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.628 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.244 billion yuan, up 60.17% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 8.474 billion yuan, marking a 14.82% increase year-on-year and a 7.84% increase quarter-on-quarter, achieving a historical high [3][4] - The company's tire production and sales volume have steadily increased, with Q3 production and sales reaching historical highs. The tire production for the first three quarters of 2024 was 54.627 million units, a 30.00% increase year-on-year, while sales were 53.878 million units, up 31.88% year-on-year. Tire revenue for the same period was 22.992 billion yuan, an increase of 27.51% year-on-year [4] - The company has demonstrated operational resilience under cost pressures, with raw material costs and shipping costs showing signs of decline. The weighted cost of raw materials was approximately 13,027 yuan per ton, up 13.10% year-on-year, but has recently decreased to 14,445.3 yuan per ton, down 5.69% from the peak. The Baltic Dry Index has also dropped significantly, indicating improved profitability potential for tire manufacturers [4] - The company is advancing its global layout, with production bases established in China and plans for projects in Mexico and Indonesia. By the end of Q2, the company had planned an annual production capacity of 26 million all-steel radial tires and 103 million semi-steel radial tires, which will contribute to profit growth as these projects come online [4] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.312 billion yuan, 5.278 billion yuan, and 6.301 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.31 yuan, 1.61 yuan, and 1.92 yuan, reflecting significant growth potential and maintaining a "Buy" rating [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 326.024 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 116.659 billion yuan, up 19.47% year-on-year. However, Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 13.51% year-on-year and 13.92% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 36.928 billion yuan, an increase of 8.98% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.71% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Oil prices remained high, with the average Brent crude oil futures price for the first three quarters of 2024 at $81.76, $85.03, and $78.71 per barrel. The company's realized oil price was $79.03 per barrel, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. The net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [2] - The exploration sector saw multiple successes, with the company making 9 new discoveries and successfully evaluating 23 oil and gas structures. New projects such as the Suizhong 36-1 and Luda 5-2 oil fields are expected to support future growth [2] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 182.768 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, with capital expenditures of 85.107 billion yuan, up 5.24% year-on-year [2] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 143.098 billion yuan, 153.975 billion yuan, and 162.355 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 3.01, 3.24, and 3.42 yuan, and PE ratios of 9, 8, and 8 respectively [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 416.609 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -1.3%. For 2024E, revenue is expected to be 460.573 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 10.6% [3] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 124.090 billion yuan, with a growth rate of -12.6%. For 2024E, net profit is projected at 143.385 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.5% [3] Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2023 is expected to be 209.743 billion yuan, with a steady increase projected for the following years [4] - Capital expenditures for 2023 are estimated at 68.451 billion yuan, with a gradual increase in subsequent years [4] Balance Sheet - Total assets for 2023 are projected at 1,005.598 billion yuan, with a steady increase expected through 2026 [4] - Total liabilities for 2023 are estimated at 337.722 billion yuan, with a slight increase projected for the following years [4]