龙靖宁 分析师 执业证书编号:S0530523120001 longjingning@hnchasing.com 评级系统说明 以报告发布日后的 6－12 个月内，所评股票/行业涨跌幅相对于同期市场指数的涨跌幅度为基准。 行业研究报告 此报告仅供内部客户参考 -2- 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 降幅温和，外资参与积极性高，产品供应丰富多元。本次集采延续第 四批国家高值耗材的风格，降幅较为温和，人工耳蜗类耗材最高降幅 （相对于最高申报价）为 40.27%，由上海力声特报出；外周血管支架 类耗材最高降幅为 58.55%，由美国康蒂思报出。此外，还有柯惠、雅 培、波士顿科学、德国百多力等知名外资企业中选，以及心脉医疗、 归创通桥、先健科技等内资企业中选，产品供应丰富多元。本次集采 外资企业参与积极性高，在所有 4 个组别（人工耳蜗及 3 个外周血管 支架组）均由头部外资企业以第一名中选。 强化创新支持，根据产品特征折算竞价系数。本次国采在价格竞争的 基础上，进一步纳入了对不同特征产品的临床价值的考量，按照质量、 功能与价格相匹配的原则，根据产品特征折算系数，将申报价格折算 后竞价比价，避免了单纯以低价为标准的 ...

-4- 相关报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|--------|-----------------------|------------|-----------------------|------------|-----------------------|-------| | \n重点股票 EPS | （元） | 2023A \n PE （倍） | EPS （元） | 2024E \n PE （倍） | EPS （元） | 2025E \n PE （倍） | 评级 | | 沃格光电 | -0.02 | -1175.00 | -0.03 | -700.06 | 0.30 | 78.57 | 增持 | | 深南电路 | 2.73 | 40.54 | 4.00 | 27.59 | 4.83 | 22.88 | 买入 | 封装基板是先进封装的关键材料。基板具备提升功能密度、缩短互连 长度、进行系统重构等优势，在先进封装领域取代了传统的引线框架。 目前主流的封装基板为 BT 和 ABF 基板，BT 基板常用于 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy in 2025, focusing on increasing the fiscal deficit ratio and government bond issuance to support growth and structural adjustments [6][29]. - The report indicates that the national fiscal work conference emphasized optimizing expenditure structure and enhancing local financial capabilities to ensure basic public services [6][40]. - The report notes that the private sector continues to play a stabilizing role in employment, with overall labor demand remaining stable and wage payments being satisfactory [52]. Group 2 - The report discusses the recent announcement of a centralized procurement for in vitro diagnostic reagents across 28 provinces, indicating a focus on cost reduction and efficiency in healthcare spending [11][34]. - The report mentions that the storage chip industry has seen price fluctuations, with recent data showing a recovery in prices after a significant drop, reflecting supply-demand dynamics [58]. - The report details that the company Aihua Long has received IVDR CE certification for several products, which will positively impact its market presence in the EU [14][37]. Group 3 - The report outlines that Hanchang Group plans to establish a subsidiary in the United States to enhance its logistics business in North America, indicating a strategic move for global expansion [38][59]. - The report states that the company Warner Pharmaceutical has received approval for two raw materials, which could enhance its product offerings in the pharmaceutical market [39][60]. - The report highlights the significant increase in downloads for Meta's smart glasses applications, indicating a growing interest in augmented reality technologies [35][56].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "In line with the market" due to high entry barriers for high-end rubber and plastic sealing products and relatively moderate competition, indicating significant room for domestic sealing companies to increase their market share [2][86]. Core Insights - Several leading companies in niche segments have emerged within the industry, achieving significant breakthroughs in core technologies, gradually breaking long-standing monopolies and injecting new momentum into the development of China's sealing industry [2][86]. - Major sealing companies are actively enhancing their market influence through continuous efforts in supply chain expansion and mergers and acquisitions, with the potential to become platform enterprises [2][86]. - Recommended companies to watch include: Zhongmi Holdings, Zhongding Shares, and Weiman Sealing [2][86]. Market Overview - The global sealing market exceeds $80 billion, with China accounting for nearly 30% of this market [4][20]. - The automotive sealing market in China is projected to exceed 25 billion yuan and is expected to continue expanding [6][45]. - The high-end door and window sealing strips market has an annual growth rate exceeding 20%, indicating substantial material upgrade potential [32][72]. Company Analysis - Zhongmi Holdings is a leader in the mechanical sealing sector and is the only domestic company with performance in nuclear main pump mechanical sealing applications. The company is actively pursuing mergers to enhance its business landscape [86]. - Zhongding Shares is a leading domestic non-tire rubber product company, consistently ranking first in market share within the industry [86]. - Weiman Sealing specializes in hydraulic and pneumatic sealing products, covering all necessary sealing products for hydraulic systems, with a market share of approximately 9% in the engineering machinery pre-installation market [86]. Material Cost Insights - The cost of raw materials for rubber and plastic sealing products is relatively high, constituting over 50% of the main business costs for major sealing companies. The price of raw materials significantly impacts the companies' gross margins [63][64].

近日，公司发布公告，公司控股子公司深圳智信生物医疗科技有限公司于近期收到广东省药品监督管理局颁发的 一项《中华人民共和国医疗器械注册证》。产品名称为气管插管用喉镜，产品由显示主机、操作手柄等组成，具备拍 照、录像、浏览、回放、冻结、解冻等功能，为医护人员准确进行气道插管以及口腔内诊察、治疗提供指引。本次取 得医疗器械注册证，有利于进一步丰富公司在呼吸、麻醉、重症领域的产品矩阵，有助于提升公司在临床医疗产品市 场的竞争力。 风险提示：产品销售推广不及预期，行业竞争加剧，集采降价风险等。 12 月 20 日晚，长春高新（000661.SZ）公告：控股子公司百克生物收到国家药品监督管理局核准签发的《药物临 床试验批准通知书》，Ⅱ型单纯疱疹病毒 mRNA 疫苗的临床试验申请获得批准，获批适应症为：预防由Ⅱ型单纯疱疹 病毒感染导致的生殖器疱疹。百克生物获批临床的Ⅱ型单纯疱疹病毒疫苗系与珠海丽凡达生物技术有限公司联合申报 （百克生物为批件持有人），该疫苗为多组分疫苗，能够同时诱导体液免疫应答和细胞免疫应答，且利用 mRNA 技术 路线进一步增强细胞免疫应答，与传统的技术路线相比提高了疫苗成功开发的可能性。截至目前，全球暂 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for proactive policy measures to address economic challenges, highlighting the importance of expanding domestic demand and implementing supportive fiscal and monetary policies [24][26][27] - The focus on "Artificial Intelligence+" is expected to accelerate the application of AI across various sectors, including education, media, smart home, and healthcare, which may present investment opportunities [27][41] - The report indicates that the A-share market has completed initial valuation repairs, with future performance likely dependent on policy and economic developments [56] Policy and Economic Outlook - The central economic work conference for 2024 prioritizes "comprehensively expanding domestic demand," indicating a shift towards more aggressive consumption and investment policies [24][26] - The report notes that the monetary policy has transitioned to a more accommodative stance, with expectations for further interest rate cuts and liquidity support in 2025 [26][32] - There is a recognition of the marginal improvement in high-frequency economic data since September 2024, suggesting a potential recovery in manufacturing and real estate sectors [28][29] Sector-Specific Opportunities - The report identifies several sectors for potential investment, including technology and self-sufficiency, with a focus on semiconductors, national defense, and industrial machinery [41] - Mergers and acquisitions are highlighted as a theme, particularly for state-owned enterprises looking to enhance their market value through restructuring [41] - The report suggests that consumer sectors such as food and beverage, beauty care, and tourism may see valuation recovery due to policy support aimed at boosting domestic consumption [6][41] Market Performance and Valuation - Recent market performance shows a decline in major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.70% and the Shenzhen Component down 0.62% during the last reporting period [18][19] - The report notes that the current price-to-earnings ratio for the A-share market is 18.77 times, indicating that the market has undergone initial valuation adjustments [56] - The report also highlights the importance of monitoring the impact of U.S. monetary policy on the Chinese market, particularly regarding interest rate expectations and trade policies [2][3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook on its performance and growth potential [196] Core Viewpoints - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rapid growth in demand for high-performance network equipment in AI computing centers, particularly in the data center switch market [30][31] - The company's deep involvement in Ethernet solutions for AI computing centers and its partnerships with industry leaders like China Mobile and the Ultra Ethernet Consortium (UEC) are key drivers for future growth [22][23] - The company's data center switch products, especially the 400G and upcoming 800G switches, are expected to see significant volume growth due to increasing demand from internet and cloud service providers [32][36] AI Computing Center Network Demand - AI model training requires massive network bandwidth and low-latency communication between GPUs, leading to a surge in demand for high-performance switches in AI computing centers [7][10][11] - The total traffic generated during the training of large AI models like Llama3-70B can reach 85EB per epoch, necessitating the deployment of multiple high-capacity switches to handle the data flow [7] - AI computing centers require ultra-high bandwidth, ultra-low latency, zero packet loss, and strict time synchronization, which can only be met by deploying a large number of high-performance switches [11] Ethernet vs InfiniBand - Ethernet (RoCE) offers better cost-effectiveness and ecosystem compatibility compared to InfiniBand (IB), making it a more attractive option for AI computing centers [17] - The cost of Ethernet (RoCE) network equipment is approximately 50% lower than that of InfiniBand for large-scale AI computing clusters, according to Semianalysis [17] - Ethernet (RoCE) supports larger-scale network expansion and can achieve full interconnectivity for up to 100,000 H100 GPUs, compared to 65,536 for InfiniBand [17] Company's Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong market position in the data center switch market, ranking third in China with a market share of 16.8% in 2022 [32][74] - The company's 400G switches have seen rapid growth, with revenue increasing by 761% year-over-year in the first three quarters of 2024, driven by demand from internet customers [32] - The company has secured significant contracts with major internet and cloud service providers, including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, for the development of next-generation switches [30][192] White Box Switches - White box switches, which decouple hardware and software, are gaining traction in data center networks due to their flexibility, cost-effectiveness, and programmability [37][175] - The company has been actively involved in the development of white box switches and has secured contracts with major internet companies for JDM (Joint Design Manufacturing) projects [191][192] - The adoption of white box switches in data centers is expected to accelerate, driven by the need for cost-effective, scalable, and highly controllable network solutions [175][176] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 12.75 billion, 14.67 billion, and 17.20 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 10.47%, 15.05%, and 17.27% [196] - Net profit is projected to grow by 45.20%, 25.87%, and 21.26% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, reaching 583 million, 733 million, and 889 million yuan, respectively [196] - The company's data center switch business is expected to be the primary growth driver, with revenue projected to grow by 13.58%, 16.58%, and 18.67% over the next three years [193]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "In Line with the Market" for December 2024 [6] Core Views - The cosmetics category experienced a significant year-on-year decline in retail sales in November, with a drop of 26.4% [5][8] - The decline is attributed to the early start of the Double 11 shopping festival, which shifted some online purchases to October, and a high base effect from the previous year [9] - Despite the November decline, the combined retail sales of cosmetics for October and November exceeded 90 billion yuan, the highest in the past five years, showing a recovery trend with a year-on-year increase of 4.18% [10] - The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, expecting consumer confidence to continue recovering with stronger consumption-boosting policies [10] Key Stocks Analysis - **Proya (珀莱雅)**: - 2023 EPS: 3.01 yuan, PE: 30.02x - 2024E EPS: 3.82 yuan, PE: 23.66x - 2025E EPS: 4.75 yuan, PE: 19.03x - Rating: Buy [3] - **Aimeike (爱美客)**: - 2023 EPS: 6.14 yuan, PE: 33.56x - 2024E EPS: 6.93 yuan, PE: 29.73x - 2025E EPS: 7.83 yuan, PE: 26.32x - Rating: Buy [3] - **Runben (润本股份)**: - 2023 EPS: 0.56 yuan, PE: 42.50x - 2024E EPS: 0.73 yuan, PE: 32.60x - 2025E EPS: 0.91 yuan, PE: 26.15x - Rating: Buy [3] Industry Performance - The beauty and personal care industry underperformed the CSI 300 index in the short term, with a 1-month return of 1.61% compared to the CSI 300's -0.68% [20] - Over a 12-month period, the industry returned -2.41%, while the CSI 300 returned 17.97% [20] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with strong operational capabilities and a multi-brand strategy, such as Proya [10] - Pay attention to niche market leaders like Runben, which is expected to see rapid new product launches in Q4 [10] - Consider compliant medical beauty leaders like Aimeike, which have strong barriers to entry and high growth certainty [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2][5][26] Core Viewpoints - The financial data for November shows overall weakness, with new RMB loans increasing by 580 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion. The short-term loans and bill financing decreased significantly, while medium to long-term loans increased, indicating a gradual improvement in the housing market policies [4][12][26] - The M1 growth rate decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to the previous month, suggesting a potential stabilization in liquidity due to improved real estate sales and the issuance of replacement bonds [13][22][26] - The report emphasizes that the focus of policy will be on stabilizing growth, which is expected to lead to a rebound in social financing and M2 growth in 2025, supported by moderately loose monetary policy and proactive fiscal measures [5][26] Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In November, the total RMB loans increased by 580 billion, with short-term loans decreasing by 370 billion and medium to long-term loans increasing by 3000 billion, reflecting a shift in consumer demand and the impact of previous real estate policies [4][17][26] - The total RMB loan balance reached 254.68 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.72% [12][15] M1 and M2 Analysis - M1 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, but the decline was less severe than the previous month, indicating potential liquidity stabilization [13][22][26] - M2 growth rate was 7.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by a cooling capital market and increased government bond issuance [22][26] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on state-owned banks with stable earnings and high dividends, such as China Construction Bank, while keeping an eye on core assets like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank if economic expectations improve [5][26]

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to show a fluctuating pattern, with technology stocks maintaining strength [2][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3370.03, down 0.36%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.61% to 10649.03 [1][8] - The overall market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6424.13 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.85 and a PB ratio of 1.25 [1] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Commerce and six other departments have introduced a plan to cultivate new consumption growth points, including beauty and personal care [21] - Two offshore wind power projects in Guangdong, totaling 800MW, have commenced construction [22] - A key offshore wind power project in Guangdong has achieved full capacity grid connection, contributing to a total installed capacity of 1.1167 million kW in the region [23] - The fifth batch of high-value medical consumables procurement results has been announced, with an average price reduction of 75% for cochlear implants [24][26] - Coreshell, a US company, has launched a 60Ah silicon-based anode battery, aiming to improve lithium-ion battery performance [27] - Shenzhen has introduced "training vouchers" to reduce the costs of AI model development and training, with an annual budget of up to 500 million yuan [28] Company Tracking - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (300750.SZ) held a conference to promote its new battery swapping ecosystem [29] - Jiangsu Wuzhong (600200.SH) has received medical device registration for three products, enhancing its market competitiveness [30] - Denghai Seed Industry (002041.SZ) plans to increase capital by 173 million yuan across four subsidiaries to optimize their financial structure [33] - Qifan Cable (605222.SH) has won a bid for a 416 million yuan offshore wind power project [34]