Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company demonstrates strong resilience in its performance, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 6.76% and a net profit growth of 10.16% for the first three quarters of 2024 [4][5] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic advertising market, showcasing robust earnings and high dividend returns, indicating long-term investment value [6] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 9,424.96 million, increasing to 11,903.72 million in 2023, with an expected revenue of 12,797.44 million in 2024 [4][10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose from 2,789.95 million in 2022 to 4,827.10 million in 2023, with a forecast of 5,206.76 million for 2024 [4][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased from 0.19 in 2022 to 0.33 in 2023, with an expected EPS of 0.36 in 2024 [4][10] - The company’s gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2024 were 66.22% and 42.15%, respectively, showing slight improvements compared to the previous year [5] Market Comparison - The company's performance slightly outpaced the overall market, with the Chinese GDP growth at 4.8% and retail sales growth at 3.3% for the first three quarters of 2024 [5] - The advertising market showed varied growth rates, with the company maintaining a stable performance amidst these fluctuations [5] Future Projections - Expected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 127.97 billion, 135.25 billion, and 141.26 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at 52.07 billion, 55.38 billion, and 57.72 billion [6][10] - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.92 in 2024, decreasing to 17.96 by 2026 [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the overseas marketing service wave, with a projected revenue of 24.57 billion yuan in 2024, 27.39 billion yuan in 2025, and 30.11 billion yuan in 2026. Corresponding net profits are expected to be 2.67 billion yuan, 2.95 billion yuan, and 3.26 billion yuan respectively [5][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted at 0.57 yuan for 2024, 0.63 yuan for 2025, and 0.69 yuan for 2026, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 60.47, 54.74, and 49.56 respectively [5][8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: 2022A: 23.06 billion yuan, 2023A: 21.43 billion yuan, 2024E: 24.57 billion yuan, 2025E: 27.39 billion yuan, 2026E: 30.11 billion yuan [8]. - **Net Profit**: 2022A: 2.62 billion yuan, 2023A: 2.17 billion yuan, 2024E: 2.67 billion yuan, 2025E: 2.95 billion yuan, 2026E: 3.26 billion yuan [8]. - **EPS**: 2022A: 0.56 yuan, 2023A: 0.46 yuan, 2024E: 0.57 yuan, 2025E: 0.63 yuan, 2026E: 0.69 yuan [8]. - **P/E Ratio**: 2022A: 61.69, 2023A: 74.51, 2024E: 60.47, 2025E: 54.74, 2026E: 49.56 [8]. Business Insights - The company focuses on overseas marketing services, with over 80% of its revenue coming from international markets. The main revenue streams include performance advertising services and management services for top media accounts, contributing 94.64% and 5.07% to total revenue respectively [5][8]. - The company has a strong cash position and announced a cash dividend of 0.25 yuan per share for the first three quarters of 2024 [5][8].

证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------|-----------------|---------|---------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | 策略点评 | | | | | | | | | 地产新政相继出台，关注相关实施细则 | | | | | | 房地产市场周报（ 11.18-11.24 ） | | 2024 年 11 月 18 | 日 | | | 投资要点 | | 上证指数 - 沪深 | 300 走势图 | | | 本周观点：由于前期存量需求充分释放，上周（ 11.11-11.17 ）商品房 销售规模延续下滑的态势。 30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比减少 | | | 上 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [2][5]. Core Views - The company has initiated its overseas platform business, driven by a dual strategy focusing on globalization and AI [2][5]. - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to reach 613.76 billion, with a steady growth trajectory expected through 2026 [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to improve from 1.17 billion in 2023 to 2.97 billion in 2026 [2][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022A: 366.83 billion - 2023A: 526.16 billion - 2024E: 613.76 billion - 2025E: 667.28 billion - 2026E: 696.73 billion [5][6] - **Net Profit**: - 2022A: -21.75 billion - 2023A: 1.17 billion - 2024E: 1.49 billion - 2025E: 2.26 billion - 2026E: 2.97 billion [5][6] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: -0.86 - 2023A: 0.05 - 2024E: 0.06 - 2025E: 0.09 - 2026E: 0.12 [5][6] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: -10.76 - 2023A: 200.69 - 2024E: 156.63 - 2025E: 103.70 - 2026E: 78.70 [5][6] - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2022A: 3.15 - 2023A: 3.09 - 2024E: 3.03 - 2025E: 2.96 - 2026E: 2.87 [5][6] Strategic Insights - The company is experiencing rapid growth in its overseas advertising business, which has significantly boosted overall revenue [2][5]. - Domestic high-margin clients have reduced their advertising spending, contributing to a decline in overall profitability [2][5]. - The company aims to enhance its programmatic advertising platform, leveraging AI to improve user growth and creative models [2][5].

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that rising inflation data in the US is leading to a downward trend in global assets, with A-shares facing adjustments due to the depreciation of the RMB and the index nearing resistance levels [2][14] - The US PPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year in October, exceeding expectations, which has raised concerns about renewed inflation and its impact on global equity markets [2][14] - The report suggests a focus on individual stocks rather than indices in the A-share market, highlighting potential opportunities in sectors such as long-term undervalued stocks, debt restructuring concepts, AI applications, self-sufficiency, and mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector [14] Equity Market - A-shares are experiencing a decline, with major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 showing a drop of 3.52% and 3.29% respectively [24][25] - The report notes that the market's trading volume remains stable above 1 trillion RMB, indicating a lower probability of significant short-term adjustments [14][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of sector rotation opportunities, particularly in industries like banking, non-banking financials, real estate, and steel [14] Bond Market - The report highlights the upcoming pressure on liquidity as 14.5 billion RMB of MLF is set to mature in December, alongside a rapid issuance of 2 trillion RMB in replacement bonds [3][15] - It suggests that the bond market may maintain a volatile trend due to these liquidity pressures and external factors, with a focus on the central bank's monetary policy responses [15][28] Commodity Market - The report discusses a significant adjustment in commodity prices, particularly in oil and gold, due to a slowdown in the expected pace of interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors [4][36] - Oil prices are under pressure from weak demand and expectations of increased production following Trump's election, while gold prices are declining due to reduced geopolitical risk and expectations of a slower rate cut pace [4][36] - The report recommends a strategy of buying on dips for gold in the long term, while oil is expected to remain weak due to oversupply [4][36] High-Frequency Data Tracking - The report notes an increase in the AH share premium to 10.63%, which is above the historical median, indicating a potential opportunity for investment in this area [38] - The risk premium for the entire A-share market has also risen, suggesting a favorable environment for equity investments [38]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a rebound with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, up 3.00% to 2256.61 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.67% to 3346.01 points [2][7] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6346.27 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.74 and a PB ratio of 1.24 [1][2] Industry Dynamics - The storage chip market is showing signs of stabilization after a price rebound, with NAND product prices remaining steady and DRAM prices experiencing slight declines [21] - A cooperation agreement was signed between Chinese and French nuclear power companies, marking a significant step in advanced construction technology collaboration [24] Company Updates - Capbio (300639.SZ) signed a stock repurchase loan agreement with a borrowing amount of 70 million, aimed at enhancing company value through stock buybacks [25] - Jianghai Co., Ltd. (002484.SZ) launched a new solid-state multilayer polymer capacitor (MLPC) product, showcasing advancements in technology and expanding its product line [26] Economic Indicators - In Hunan Province, the industrial added value increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to October, with significant contributions from the equipment manufacturing sector [30]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "In line with the market" [2][11][48] Core Viewpoints - The self-operated business has driven performance recovery in Q3, and the industry valuation is expected to continue to improve [5][47] - The securities industry outperformed the market in October, ranking 14th among 31 Shenwan industry indices, with a 3.59% increase [8][16] - The average daily trading volume in October reached a historical high of 1.98 trillion yuan, which is expected to significantly benefit brokerage business [10][47] - The PB valuation of listed securities firms increased from 1.14x at the end of August to 1.58x by November 14, indicating room for further valuation recovery [13][48] Summary by Sections Key Stocks - Citic Securities: EPS of 1.33 yuan in 2023A, PE of 24.55; 1.37 yuan in 2024E, PE of 23.85; 1.70 yuan in 2025E, PE of 19.22, rated as "Add" [1] - Huatai Securities: EPS of 1.35 yuan in 2023A, PE of 14.17; 1.72 yuan in 2024E, PE of 11.12; 1.59 yuan in 2025E, rated as "Buy" [1] Market Performance - The securities sector's performance in October was driven by a recovery in market sentiment, with a 20.17% increase in revenue and a 38.08% increase in net profit in Q3 compared to the same period last year [9][46] - The financing and margin trading balance reached 1.71 trillion yuan by October 31, indicating a growing capital intermediary business [10][47] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high-quality leading securities firms and mergers and acquisitions as two main investment lines [48] - Recommended stocks include Citic Securities, Huatai Securities, and those undergoing mergers like Guotai Junan and Zhejiang Securities [48]

Market Overview - Major indices experienced a pullback after reaching highs, with the market showing a decrease in trading volume throughout the day [3][6] - The overall A-share market saw a decline of 1.45%, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.21% and the ChiNext Index down by 2.35% [6] - The construction and real estate sectors showed strong performance due to supportive policies for urban village renovations [6] Economic Indicators - In October, national general public budget revenue increased by 5.5% year-on-year, with tax revenue growing by 1.8%, marking the first positive growth of the year [12] - The central bank conducted a 1726 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [13] Industry Dynamics - In October, the sales of excavators in the engineering machinery sector reached 16,791 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, with domestic sales up by 21.6% [20] - Japan's four major machine tool companies reported a 12.9% year-on-year increase in orders for October, marking five consecutive months of growth [21] - Nvidia's GB200 chip may face delivery delays due to overheating issues, impacting data center processor deployment timelines [25] Company Updates - Zhenghai Biological's application for the registration of calcium silicate bioceramic bone repair materials has been accepted by the National Medical Products Administration [26] - Hengguang Co., Ltd. plans to invest in a chemical project in Laos with an annual production capacity of 300,000 tons, with a total investment not exceeding 250 million yuan [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Synchronize with the market" [2][15]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry has shown a mixed performance, with a notable recovery in passenger vehicle sales in September, which increased by 1.5% year-on-year [4]. - The heavy truck market has experienced a decline in demand, with total sales for October 2024 estimated at approximately 63,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 22% [5][6]. - New energy heavy trucks have demonstrated significant growth, with October sales reaching 8,247 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 139.95% [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector's performance has been volatile, with a 14.33% increase over the past month, compared to a 5.11% increase in the CSI 300 index [4]. - The heavy truck market's sales for the first ten months of 2024 totaled approximately 746,000 units, with a cumulative decline of 5% [5]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - The market for new energy heavy trucks is characterized by lower concentration compared to traditional fuel trucks, indicating intense competition [7][10]. - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 18.45% in October, with a continuous growth trend observed over the past 21 months [6][11]. Policy Impact - The "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy is expected to stimulate demand, particularly for new energy heavy trucks, with subsidies of up to 140,000 yuan for purchasing new energy models [11]. - The implementation of this policy is anticipated to have a more pronounced effect in the fourth quarter of 2024, leading to a potential increase in heavy truck sales [10][11].

2024 年 11 月 18 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------|----------|--------| | | | | | 市场数据 | | | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌 % | | 上证指数 | 3330.73 | -1.45 | | 深证成指 | 10748.97 | -2.62 | | 创业板指 | 2243.62 | -3.91 | | 科创 50 | 986.88 | -3.94 | | 北证 50 | 1344.33 | -0.75 | | 沪深 300 | 3968.83 | -1.75 | A 股市场概览 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------|--------------------|-----------|-----------| | 类别 | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 流通市 值 ( 亿元 ) | 市盈率 PE | 市净率 PB | | 上证指数 | 631764 | 490339 | 11.67 | 1.23 | | 深证成指 | 221793 | 1 ...