5 国内制造业 PMI 持平，美国核心 PCE 符合预期 本周观点：国内方面，6 月份，受高温多雨、传统动能疲软和政策落 地时滞性影响，制造业PMI保持在49.5%，连续两个月处于收缩状态， 显示国内经济复苏基础需进一步巩固。供需两端均小幅下降，需求端 的新订单指数连续收缩，出口订单持平，国内需求放缓为主要原因。 高技术和装备制造业PMI增长加快，而高耗能和消费品制造业景气度 下降，反映出新旧动能转换加速，但传统动能对需求的拖累仍需关注。 另外，大型企业 PMI 下降，中小型企业 PMI 上升，但大型企业扩张、 中小企业收缩的分化依旧。往后看，政策落实将有助于经济恢复向中 小企业传导，但房地产市场低迷和出口不确定性可能影响小型企业 PMI的恢复，进而可能持续对制造业PMI形成制约，第三季度制造业 PMI 或将于荣枯线处徘徊。1-5 月份，全国规模以上工业企业利润总 额同比增长 3.4%，较 1-4 月份回落 0.9 个百分点。从量、价、成本三 个关键因素分析，PPI降幅缩小和营收改善有助于降低成本，但去年 同期基数较高和生产增长放缓仍导致本月工业利润增速下降。具体到 行业，中下游行业利润增速放缓，而上游采矿业 ...

行业月度点评 电子 | 2024 年 06 月 24 | | | | | | | | | | | |---------------------------|-----------------|--------------|-----------|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| | 评级 | | 领先大市 | | | | | | | | | | | 评级变动: | 维持 | | | | | | | | | | 行业涨跌幅比较 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资要点: | | | | | | | | | % | 1M | 3M 12M | | | | | | | | | | 电子 | 3.49 | -2.90 -11.39 | | | | | | | | | | 沪深 300 | -4.53 | -1.92 -10.02 | | | | | | | | | | 何晨 | | 分析师 | | | | | | | | | | 执业证书编号 | :S0530513080001 | | | | | | | | | | | hechen@hnchasin ...

行业月度点评 计算机 | 重点股票 | 2023A | | | 2025E | 评级 | |--------------------|---------------|-----------------|-------|-------------------|-----------| | EPS | PE (倍) | PE (倍) | (元) | PE (倍) | | | 海光信息 | 134.68 | 100.67 | 1.04 | 70.24 | 增持 | | 金山办公 | 87.63 | 70.34 | 4.60 | 54.37 | 买入 | | 资料来源: | 财信证券 | | | | | | (按照 2024-06-26 | 收盘价计算) | | | | | | 投资要点: | | | | | | | | | ,行业排名第 | 15 | 位。上月( 2024 | 年 5 月 | | 27 日 | 6 月 26 | | 3.77% | ,沪深 300 | 指数 | | 下跌 | ,创业板指下跌 | | | 3.91% | ,落后 | | 上证指数 | | 300 指数 | 0.54 | 个百分点,在申万 ...

证券研究报告 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 图表目录 内容目录 8 风险提示 此报告仅供内部客户参考 -2- 1 核心观点（科创板八条落地，A股延续磨底） 周初公布的 5 月固定资产投资及消费数据表现平淡，叠加 MLF 及 LPR 未调降，债市积 极情绪得以延续。后半周受资金面收敛影响，止盈盘带动债市回调。当前长端下行空间 短期受限，建议积极布局中短端机会。 此报告仅供内部客户参考 -3- 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 在周五美国 PMI 数据超预期增长后，贵金属价格出现明显回调。本周主要聚焦 PCE数据 能否如期改善，从而带动贵金属打开向上空间。 上周（06.17-06.21）资产表现为：美股>港股＞债券>大宗商品>A 股。国内方面，5 月固定资产投资及社零数据延续温和运行，内需改善仍有进一步提升空间。科创板八条 新规落地，后续科创板上市公司并购重组有望提速。海外方面，英国、瑞士央行接连放 鸽，美国零售数据环比走弱。整体来看，上周 ICE WTI 原油表现亮眼，领涨其他类型资 产，涨幅 2.38%。紧随其后的为法国 CAC40 指数、美国 10 年期国债期货和纳斯达克指 数等 ...

Trend Force 公众号 7 月 1 日消息，根据全球市场研究机构 Trend Force 集邦咨询最新报告指出，今年整体环境虽 受 AI 预算影响，导致全年通用型服务器（generalserver）成长不如预期，但近期相关零部件，如基板管理控制器（BMC, Board Management Controller）、新款 CPU 等，基于服务器新平台的导入，OEMs 与 CSPs 均出现不错的采购动力；此 外，在 ODMs 供应链的调查也发现，服务器出货除第一季呈现淡季外，第二季与第三季有呈现季增的趋势。 从供应链角度来看，OEMs 与 CSPs 在 CPU 准备上也较以往积极，除 Intel Sapphire Rapids 与 Emerald Rapids 均呈 现季增外，AMDBergamo 与 Genoa 也受惠云端动能加大拉货力道。在 BMC 部分，更得利于量产在即的 GB200、中 系业者备货动能提升，纷纷于第二季底与第三季拉大订单规模。Trend Force 集邦咨询预期，DRAM 位元出货量将优于 原本预期，且 DDR5 占比将在第三季提升至 60%大关。 根据 Trend Force 集 ...

Group 1 - The report reviews the top ten stocks for the second quarter of 2024, with a cumulative return of -3.98%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and other indices [38][39] - The top performing stocks include Huadian Co., Ltd. (+22.60%), Stone Technology (+14.60%), and Jiuli Special Materials (+7.16%), while the worst performers were Runze Technology (-22.77%) and Kain Technology (-20.05%) [38][39] - The report indicates that the A-share market showed weak fluctuations in the second quarter, with blue-chip indices outperforming growth indices [38][39] Group 2 - For the third quarter of 2024, the report suggests a focus on structural opportunities, with the Chinese asset market showing a cost-performance advantage [13][24] - The report highlights four main investment themes: resource sector, high-dividend blue-chip stocks, export industry chain, and AI industry chain [24][41] - The resource sector is expected to benefit from improved external demand and supply constraints, particularly in non-ferrous metals and precious metals [14][24] Group 3 - Jiuli Special Materials is the largest domestic producer of industrial stainless steel seamless pipes, benefiting from increased capital expenditure in the energy sector [27][45] - Jianlin Home is a leading manufacturer of high-quality kitchen and bathroom fixtures, with strong customer loyalty and a high proportion of foreign clients [28][30] - Stone Technology has seen a significant increase in market share in the domestic robot vacuum market, with a strong growth trajectory expected [50][31] Group 4 - Anhui Heli is a leading domestic forklift manufacturer, with steady growth in revenue and profit, and a strong position in the global market [32][34] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is expanding its market presence through strategic partnerships and investments in refining and chemical projects [35][53] - Muyuan Foods is positioned to benefit from the recovery in the pig farming cycle, with expectations of increased profitability [55][72] Group 5 - Proya Cosmetics is focusing on product innovation and marketing strategies to enhance brand growth and market share [57][74] - Unisplendour is leveraging the growth in AI and cloud computing to expand its market presence and improve profitability [60][75] - Huadian Co., Ltd. is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for AI servers and advanced PCB technologies [63][77]

证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------|--------------------|-----------|-----------| | 类别 | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 流通市 值 ( 亿元 ) | 市盈率 PE | 市净率 PB | | 上证指数 | 565085 | 431625 | 11.18 | 1.13 | | 深证成指 | 185332 | 157602 | 18.44 | 1.89 | | 创业板指 | 45330 | 36818 | 23.96 | 3.25 | | 科创 50 | 23847 | 14474 | 28.91 | 2.88 | | 北证 50 | 1399 | 886 | 18.65 | 2.34 | | 沪深 300 | 509791 | 379318 | 10.68 | 1.15 | 一、财信研究观点 【宏观经济】美国 5 月核心 PCE 物价指数刷新三年来最低纪录 【宏观经济】6 月份官方制造业 PMI 为 49.5% | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Company Developments - CNOOC announced the official production of the Enping 21-4 oilfield development project, expected to reach a peak daily output of approximately 5,300 barrels of oil equivalent by 2025, with the oil being light crude [1] - Baicheng Pharmaceutical transferred 70% ownership of the improved new drug 2022HY052 to Beijing Yuanfang Tongda Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd. for 70 million yuan, which is expected to positively impact the company's performance in 2024 and beyond [9] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - In the first five months of 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 27,543.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [2][47] - The mining industry saw a profit decrease of 16.2%, while the manufacturing sector experienced a profit increase of 6.3% [2][47] - The power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry achieved a profit increase of 29.5% [2][47] - The silicon wafer prices remained stable, with slight increases in some sizes, and the production in June was reported at 51.31 GW, a month-on-month decrease of 13.98% [3][21] - TrendForce expects DRAM prices to continue rising in the third quarter, with an estimated increase of 8-13% [7] - The real estate market showed signs of marginal improvement, with a 24.26% increase in transaction area for commodity housing in major cities compared to the previous week [14][16]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate sector, suggesting that the ongoing support policies are expected to further improve market conditions [3]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing marginal improvements in sales, with a notable increase in transaction volumes following the implementation of supportive policies and seasonal demand [2][11]. - The report highlights that the central bank and housing authorities are actively promoting measures to accelerate the de-inventory of existing properties, which is anticipated to enhance market stability [11][14]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market is gradually recovering, although it remains cautious due to ongoing price pressures [11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Recent data shows a 24.26% week-on-week increase in transaction area for new homes in 30 major cities, with a year-on-year decline narrowing to 17.66% [2][11]. - The report notes that first and second-tier cities are leading the recovery in the housing market, with significant increases in transaction volumes [11][15]. Policy Dynamics and Key News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has initiated efforts to purchase existing properties for affordable housing, aiming to boost supply and stabilize the market [12]. - The Hengqin Guangdong-Macao Deep Cooperation Zone has lifted housing purchase restrictions, indicating a broader trend of easing regulations across most regions [13]. - The central bank has introduced a package of supportive policies aimed at reducing mortgage rates and facilitating the sale of existing homes [14]. Housing Market High-Frequency Data - For the week of June 17-23, 2024, the total number of new homes sold in 30 major cities was 19,638 units, reflecting a 25.33% increase from the previous week [15]. - Cumulatively, from January 1 to June 23, 2024, the transaction area for new homes in these cities has decreased by 39.50% year-on-year [15][18]. Land Market High-Frequency Data - In the week of June 17-23, 2024, 100 major cities saw land supply increase by 43.21% compared to the previous week, while land transactions decreased by 33.87% [34][37]. - The average land price in these cities has shown a slight decrease, with the overall premium rate for land transactions rising to 4.74% [40][43]. Real Estate Development Investment Data - As of May 2024, total real estate development investment reached 40,632 billion yuan, marking a 10.10% year-on-year decline [46]. - The report indicates a significant reduction in new construction activities, with the area under construction decreasing by 11.60% year-on-year [48].