Core Insights - The report highlights the continuation of a strong US dollar trend and a sideways consolidation in the A-share market [3][18] - A-share and Hong Kong stock valuations remain relatively low, supported by intensive policy measures, but the market is expected to continue its consolidation due to a lack of incremental capital [6][10] Equity Market - In June, the PMI remained in the contraction zone at 49.5, indicating a passive inventory accumulation state in the manufacturing sector [10][22] - Industrial profits for large-scale enterprises in China showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 3.4% from January to May 2024, with May's monthly growth slowing to 0.7% [10][22] - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend and defensive sectors such as coal and public utilities, as well as upstream resource sectors benefiting from improved external demand [10][22] Bond Market - The report notes an increase in cross-quarter funding demand, leading to an overall decline in interest rates, with the central bank increasing reverse repo operations [26][31] - As of June 28, the 10-year government bond yield decreased by 5.13 basis points to 2.21%, indicating a downward trend in long-term interest rates [61][26] Commodity Market - The commodity market experienced more declines than increases, with LME zinc leading the gains [19][49] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict, have provided some support for oil prices, while the overall market remains volatile [19][49] Key Data and Events Outlook - The report anticipates significant events such as the French parliamentary elections and the US non-farm payroll data for June, which could impact market sentiment [54][55]

Strategy Overview - The report highlights a market contraction with a focus on structural opportunities as the A-share market continues to experience fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.59% and remaining below 3000 points [1][36] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased by 8.31% to 608.19 billion yuan, indicating a lack of new capital inflow [1][36] - The resource sector, particularly non-ferrous metals, retail, and steel, showed positive performance amid expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][36] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2949.9 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.73% to 8695.55 points [1][36] - The large-cap blue-chip indices outperformed smaller indices, with the dividend index rising by 0.49% [1][36] - The valuation of all A-shares is at a price-to-book ratio of 1.38, lower than 99.5% of the past decade, suggesting an increase in long-term investment value [1][36] Industry Insights - The real estate sector showed signs of stabilization due to the 517 real estate policy, with the top 100 real estate companies achieving sales of 438.93 billion yuan in June, a month-on-month increase of 36.3% [22] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 key cities was 14,423 yuan per square meter, continuing a downward trend [22] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sustainability of policy effects in the real estate market, as the second-hand housing prices have not yet stabilized, adding uncertainty to the sector [22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines for investment in Q3 2024: high-dividend large-cap blue chips, resource sectors, export industries, and the AI industry chain [27][43][46] - The resource sector is expected to benefit from improved external demand and potential price increases for non-ferrous metals and precious metals [27][45] - The export industry is anticipated to maintain resilience due to inventory replenishment in the U.S. and demand for durable consumer goods [29] Economic Context - The macroeconomic environment is projected to be in a recovery phase, with moderate economic growth and a favorable monetary environment for equity asset allocation [27] - The report notes that the recent expectations of an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have influenced market sentiment and commodity prices [42]

免责声明 本报告信息来源于公开资料，本公司对该信息的准确性、完整性或可靠性不作任何保证。本公司对已发报告无更 新义务，若报告中所含信息发生变化，本公司可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改，投资者应当自行关注相应的更 新或修改。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-----------|-----------------|---------|--------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 晨会纪要 晨会纪要 | | | 2024 年 | 07 月 | 08 日 | | | | 市场数据 | | | | | 晨会聚焦 | | 指数名称 | | 收盘 | 涨跌 | % | 一、财信研究观点 | | 上证指数 | | 2949.93 | -0.26 | | 【市场策略】市场缩量调整，关注结构性机会 | | 深证成指 | | 8695.55 | 0.25 | | | | 创业 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market continues to adjust, with the overall market represented by the Wind All A Index declining by 1.31% to close at 4137.93 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.83% to 2957.57 points [6][4] - The engineering machinery sector showed resilience, experiencing an upward trend despite the overall market decline [6][4] - The market sentiment remains cautious, with trading volumes below 600 billion yuan for two consecutive days, indicating a potential continued consolidation phase [6][4] Company Tracking - Ningde Times (300750.SZ) launched its commercial power battery brand "Tianxing," which includes solutions for logistics and delivery, featuring high charging speeds and long battery life [19][37] - Qingdao Kingwan (002094.SZ) expects a 30-50% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, driven by significant growth in new materials and related businesses [20][38] - Cangzhou Mingzhu (002108.SZ) has commenced production on two production lines for lithium-ion battery separators, aiming to enhance market share and product competitiveness [21][39] Economic Dynamics - In Hunan Province, over 730,000 people traveled in and out of the port in the first half of 2024, marking a 2.7-fold increase compared to the same period in 2023, with foreign visitors increasing fivefold [24][42] - The logistics index for e-commerce in China rose by 0.9 points in June, indicating a recovery in logistics activities [32][16] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend large-cap blue-chip stocks, resource sectors, export industries, and the AI industry chain as potential investment opportunities in the current market environment [6][4]

证券行业金融科技发展趋势 证券行业深度 | 2024 年 06 月 28 | 日 | | | | | | | | | | |----------------------------|-----------|---------------|----|----|----|----|----|----|----|----| | 评级 | | 同步大市 | | | | | | | | | | | 评级变动: | 维持 | | | | | | | | | | 行业涨跌幅比较 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 证券 Ⅱ | 沪深 300 | | | | | | | | | | 33% | | | | | | | | | | | | 23% | | | | | | | | | | | | 13% | | | | | | | | | | | | 3% | | | | | | | | | | | | -7% | | | | | | | | | | | | -17% | | | | | | | | | | | | 2023-06 2023-09 | 2023-12 | 2024-03 | | | | | | | ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the recent performance of the automotive industry, noting a slight increase in the total import and export value of automotive goods, which reached $26.38 billion in May 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [2] - The report also emphasizes the strong sales performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs), particularly BYD, which achieved sales of 342,000 units in June 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 35.2% [4][31] - The storage chip market is experiencing price stability, with small capacity SSD prices showing a decline, while DRAM prices remain relatively stable [27][30] Industry Dynamics - The automotive sector's import value was $6.07 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 11.5% and a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, while the export value was $20.31 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [2] - The report notes that the logistics industry in China maintained a growth index of 51.6% in June, indicating continued expansion despite some pressures on demand [20] - The storage chip market is characterized by a stable pricing environment, with NAND product prices showing minor fluctuations and DRAM prices remaining steady [27][30] Company Tracking - BYD's NEV sales reached 1.613 million units in the first half of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.5% [4][31] - The report mentions that Dongpeng Beverage plans to reduce its shareholding by up to 3% of the total share capital due to funding needs [32] - Aoxin announced the completion of capital increase for its Thai subsidiary, which is a strategic move to enhance its global market presence [33]

2024 年 07 月 04 日 证券研究报告 【市场策略】市场全天震荡调整，大消费板块逆势上扬 【宏观经济】跌破 7.31，离岸人民币对美元汇率再下挫 【财经要闻】财政部：设备更新贷款财政贴息资金实行"两个预拨"机 制 【行业动态】2024 年 1-5 月广告市场花费同比上涨 2.9% 【公司跟踪】千红制药（002550.SZ）：预计 2024H1 归母净利润为 1.83 亿元，同比增长 53.57% 四、湖南经济动态 近期研究报告集锦 晨会纪要 【宏观策略类】经济金融高频数据周报（06.24-06.28） 晨会聚焦摘要： 一、市场层面 （1）分市场来看，代表全部 A 股的万得全 A 指数跌 0.54%，收于 4192.74 点，代表蓝筹股的上证指数跌 0.49%，收于 2982.38 点，代表硬科技的科创 50 指数涨 0.38%，收于 701.78 点，代表创新成长的创业板指数跌 0.29%，收于 1660.12 点，代表创新型中小企业的北证 50 指数跌 1.97%，收于 692.85 点，总体来看，硬科技板块风 格跑赢，但创新型中小企业风格跑输。 （2）分规模来看，代表超大盘股的上证 50 指数跌 ...

央地支持政策持续发力,销售企稳态势有望延续 房地产市场周报(06.24-06.30) 投资要点 本周观点:由于时值年中业绩窗口期,叠加近期政策利好持续释放, 商品房销售出现企稳迹象。本周(6.24-6.30)30 大中城市新房销售面 积环比增幅达 66.68%,同比降幅亦收窄至 0.74%。此外,本周各能级 城市也走出了此前的分化行情,一二三线城市销售面积环比均大幅上 涨。从政策面来看,住建部近日召开保交房政策培训视频会议,会议 强调要有力有序有效推进保交房各项工作;央行近日召开的 2024 年 第二季度例会也明确,要加大对"市场+保障"的住房供应体系的金 融支持力度。住建部与央行的部署释放出房地产支持政策还将继续加 码的积极信号,市场预期有望得到进一步提振。地方层面,北京进一 步优化房地产政策,如将首套房最低首付比例从 30%调整至 20%,预 计后续一线城市相关政策有望继续加码。整体来看,"517"新政以 来各级政府持续加码房地产政策,近期商品房销售也出现明显改善, 期待 7 月份延续企稳态势,但考虑到上半年商品房销售的绝对量仍处 于低位,市场拐点的出现可能还需要一定时间。 本周房地产政策动态及市场重要消 ...

策略专题 上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | % | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 上证指数 | 1.31 | -3.79 | 25.97 | | 沪深 300 | 5.29 | 10.04 | -2.05 | 相关报告 3 宏观经济研究周报（06.10-06.14）：国内 5 月 CPI 温和上升，美国 5 月 CPI 回落 2024-06-17 投资要点 全球经济增速有所上行，2024 年 06 月 28 日波罗的海干散货指数 (BDI)当周平均值为 1988.8 点，较上周增加 22.20 点；通胀水平高位 震荡，CRB 商品价格指数当周平均值为 291.98 点，较上周减少 2.36 点。 国内经济增长动能平稳，2024年06月中国官方制造业PMI为49.5%， 较上月持平；通胀趋于平稳，2024 年 06 月 20 日中国猪肉当周平均 价为 28.74 元/公斤，较上周增加 0.32 元/公斤。 2024 年 06 月 28 日中国高炉当周开工率 ...

策略专题 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 上证指数 沪深300 2016-06 2016-09 2016-12 2017-03 相关报告 3 宏观经济研究周报（06.10-06.14）：国内 5 月 CPI 温和上升，美国 5 月 CPI 回落 2024-06-17 2024 年 06 月 28 日中国高炉当周开工率(247 家)为 83.13%，较上周 变化 0.30 个百分点，螺纹钢主要钢厂开工率为 44.94%，较上周变化 1.65 个百分点。 投资：筑底企稳。 新兴行业：半导体景气度下降。 投资要点 此报告仅供内部客户参考 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 -2- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|-------| | | | | 图 1: 波罗的海干散货指数(BDI). | | | 图 2: 美欧经济不确定指数 | | | 图 3: CRB 商品价格指数. | | | 图 4: 布伦特原油结算价（关元/桶）. | | | 图 5: 美国通胀国债利率（%） | | | 图 6: PMI (%) . | | | 图 7 ...