证券研究报告 传媒 报告日期：2025 年 02 月 10 日 DeepSeek 重塑 AI 产业格局，助力 AI 端侧落地 ——AI 产业系列跟踪专题研究报告 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 执业证书编号：S0230523080004 邮箱：sunbw@hlzq.com 商业化应用场景持续拓宽—传媒行业周 报》2025.01.20 2025.01.14 《AI+文化出海+IP 衍生，打开传媒成长 策略报告》2024.12.06 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 DeepSeek-V3 和 R1 模型凭借卓越的性能和创新的技术，迅速在 全球 AI 领域崭露头角。2024 年 12 月 26 日，公司发布全新系列 模型 DeepSeek-V3 并同步开源，DeepSeek-V3 为自研 MoE 模型， 多项评测成绩超越了 Qwen2.5-72B 和 Llama-3.1-405B 等其他开源 模 型 ， 并 在 性 能 上 和 世 界 顶 尖 的 闭 源 模 型 GPT-4o 以 及 Claude-3.5-Sonnet 不分伯仲。2025 年 1 月 20 日，DeepSeek 发布 了推理模 ...

证券研究报告 通信 报告日期：2025 年 02 月 09 日 DeepSeek 大模型火热出圈，关注相关产业链投资机会 （2）近期，美股"科技七巨头"中六家已发布 2024 年第四季度 财报。尽管巨额 AI 投资回报前景仍不明朗，DeepSeek 的成功又 让市场开始质疑巨额支出的合理性，但科技巨头对 AI 的投资没 有任何降温迹象，其中五家公司 2025 年的合计资本支出预计将高 达 3310 亿美元。 ——通信行业周报 华龙证券研究所 投资评级：推荐（维持） 最近一年走势 分析师：彭棋 执业证书编号：S0230523080002 邮箱：pengq@hlzq.com 《AI 快速发展，光模块业绩表现亮眼— 通 信 行 业 2024 年 三 季 报 综 述 》 2024.11.14 《5G-A 持续快速发展，关注人工智能相 关投资机会—通信行业周报》2024.07.08 《5G-A 助力低空经济快速发展，关注车 路云一体化相关机会—通信行业周报》 2024.06.24 摘要： 周要闻： （1）在全球 AI 技术竞逐的浪潮中，DeepSeek 以卓越的性能和极 具竞争力的训推成本，成功吸引了业界的广泛关注。这 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a correction in January 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 3.02% and the CSI 300 Index down by 2.99%. Sectors such as non-ferrous metals, machinery, and automobiles performed relatively well [4] - Economic growth expectations for 2025 remain stable, with 20 out of 31 provinces targeting growth rates above 5%. The IMF has raised its forecast for China's 2025 economic growth to 4.6%, reflecting a slight increase from previous estimates [4][6] February Market Environment - The market environment improved in February 2025, driven by policy initiatives aimed at increasing long-term capital inflows. The China Securities Regulatory Commission issued plans to promote index investment, facilitating easier access for long-term funds [6] - Uncertainty regarding U.S. tariffs has decreased, with President Trump signing an executive order imposing a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, but the pace of future tariffs is expected to be controlled [6] - High-frequency data around the Spring Festival showed positive trends, with inter-regional mobility increasing by 5.2% month-on-month and box office revenues reaching a record of 7.6 billion yuan [6] Industry and Themes - The domestic demand direction is emphasized, with policies promoting equipment upgrades and consumption incentives. Key sectors to watch include home appliances, automobiles, and machinery [7] - The technology innovation sector is highlighted, particularly in semiconductors and consumer electronics, as companies adapt to new market demands and government regulations [7] - The announcement of tariffs on U.S. imports by China may create opportunities for domestic substitutes, with continued focus on new productivity and market management themes [7] Key Stocks for February 2025 - Notable stocks include: - Samsung Medical (601567.SH) - Hongsoft Technology (688088.SH) - Bozhong Precision (688097.SH) - Longsheng Technology (300680.SZ) - Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) - Baosteel (600019.SH) - Fulete (601865.SH) [8] Financial Data of Key Stocks - Samsung Medical: 2025E EPS of 2.48 yuan, PE ratio of 15.1 [10] - Hongsoft Technology: 2025E EPS of 0.64 yuan, PE ratio of 56.7 [10] - Bozhong Precision: 2025E EPS of 1.39 yuan, PE ratio of 19.3 [10] - Longsheng Technology: 2025E EPS of 1.76 yuan, PE ratio of 15.6 [10] - Chifeng Gold: 2025E EPS of 0.80 yuan, PE ratio of 22.4 [10] - Baosteel: 2025E EPS of 0.48 yuan, PE ratio of 14.0 [10] - Fulete: 2025E EPS of 0.70 yuan, PE ratio of 19.2 [10] Company Logic for Key Stocks - Samsung Medical is expanding in overseas markets, with significant contracts in Indonesia, indicating robust growth potential [12] - Hongsoft Technology is positioned to benefit from the AI wave in smartphones and is expanding into smart automotive solutions [12] - Bozhong Precision is diversifying into new energy and semiconductor sectors, enhancing its growth prospects [12] - Longsheng Technology is focusing on humanoid robotics, aiming for significant cost reductions in production processes [12] - Chifeng Gold is expected to benefit from rising gold prices and has implemented cost control measures to enhance profitability [12] - Baosteel is optimizing its product structure and enhancing shareholder returns through effective capital management [12] - Fulete is leveraging its cost advantages in the photovoltaic glass industry, with ongoing projects expected to stabilize pricing [12]

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant institutional breakthrough in attracting medium to long-term funds into the A-share market, driven by a recent implementation plan issued by multiple government departments [3][6]. - The A-share market has experienced a phase of rebound, supported by favorable factors, although it remains susceptible to disturbances. The issuance of the plan has stabilized expectations regarding incremental capital, boosting market confidence [6][7]. - The plan outlines specific measures to guide the sources of incremental funds, including a target for public funds to increase their holdings in A-shares by at least 10% annually over the next three years, potentially bringing trillions in new capital to the market [6][7]. Group 2 - The plan emphasizes the importance of long-term returns in the capital market, proposing extended assessment periods for performance evaluations of state-owned insurance companies and social security funds, which may enhance risk tolerance among investors [6][7]. - The report suggests that the introduction of medium to long-term funds will act as a stabilizing force in the capital market, addressing issues related to the insufficient total volume and suboptimal structure of long-term capital [6][7]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-dividend sectors due to the plan's emphasis on value and long-term investment, as well as considering technology innovation sectors that may exhibit high volatility but potential for significant long-term performance [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in performance due to the ramp-up of phosphate rock production, with a projected net profit attributable to shareholders of 400 million to 500 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.15% to 92.69% [3][6] - The company is leveraging its high-quality phosphate resources in Guizhou to enhance its industry chain advantages, focusing on the production of phosphate concentrate, nitric phosphate fertilizer, and other agricultural fertilizers [6] Financial Forecast Summary - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4,162 million yuan, 4,818 million yuan, and 5,406 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 28.33%, 15.75%, and 12.20% [5][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 493 million yuan in 2024, 856 million yuan in 2025, and 926 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 89.89%, 73.76%, and 8.21% [5][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.51 yuan for 2024, 0.89 yuan for 2025, and 0.96 yuan for 2026, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17.7X, 10.2X, and 9.4X respectively [7][10] Market Data - The current stock price is 9.09 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 8,744.48 million yuan [3] - The stock has shown a significant trading volume, with a turnover rate of 71.66% over the past month [3]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to have a higher winning probability before and after the Spring Festival, with an 80% probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the first three trading days before the festival and a 70% probability in the five trading days after [4][13][15]. Economic Overview - The economic growth in 2024 achieved the expected target, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to 2023. The fourth quarter saw a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, benefiting from the continuous release of macro policy effects [4][8]. - Consumption demand continued to expand, contributing 44.5% to economic growth, while fixed asset investment grew by 3.2% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment increasing by 9.2% [8][10]. - Net exports contributed 30.3% to economic growth, with exports increasing by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating a robust external demand [8][10]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate market showed signs of marginal recovery, with a 10.6% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment in 2024. However, new housing sales in major cities have shown a continuous month-on-month increase since October 2024 [10][12]. - The risk level in the real estate market has significantly weakened, and the overall transaction level is improving, suggesting a positive trend for the sector [10][12]. Currency and Trade - The RMB exchange rate stabilized and rebounded significantly, supported by a weakening US dollar index and better-than-expected foreign trade growth. The trade surplus has provided favorable support for the RMB [11][12]. - The report highlights that the "grab export" effect is evident, particularly with a notable increase in exports to the US, which rose by 15.59% year-on-year in December 2024 [8][10]. Industry and Theme Allocation - Key sectors to focus on include consumption, technology innovation, export replacement, and the real estate chain. The report emphasizes the importance of policies promoting consumption and technological advancements [18][20][24]. - The report suggests that the consumer market is expected to maintain stable growth in 2025, with a focus on food and beverage, home appliances, and automobiles [18][20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2][5]. Core Views - In December, the power generation showed stable growth, with industrial power generation reaching 846.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The average daily power generation was 27.3 billion kWh. For the entire year of 2024, the industrial power generation totaled 941.81 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [5]. - The report highlights that in December, the growth rates of nuclear power and solar power generation accelerated, while thermal power shifted from growth to decline. Hydropower and wind power saw a turnaround from decline to growth. Specifically, industrial thermal power decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, while hydropower increased by 5.5%, nuclear power grew by 11.4%, wind power rose by 6.6%, and solar power surged by 28.5%, marking an acceleration of 18.2 percentage points compared to November [5]. - The total electricity consumption in December was 883.5 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.41 percentage points. For the entire year, total electricity consumption reached 985.21 billion kWh, up by 6.8% year-on-year [5]. Summary by Sections Power Generation Data - In December, the industrial power generation was 846.2 billion kWh, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The daily average was 27.3 billion kWh. The total for 2024 was 941.81 billion kWh, up 4.6% year-on-year [5]. - By power type, nuclear and solar power saw accelerated growth, while thermal power declined. Hydropower and wind power increased, with specific growth rates of 11.4% for nuclear, 28.5% for solar, and 6.6% for wind [5]. Electricity Consumption Data - Total electricity consumption in December was 883.5 billion kWh, a 3.2% year-on-year increase. The total for the year was 985.21 billion kWh, reflecting a 6.8% growth [5]. - By sector, the first industry consumed 135.7 billion kWh (up 6.3%), the second industry 638.74 billion kWh (up 5.1%), the third industry 183.48 billion kWh (up 9.9%), and urban and rural residential consumption was 149.42 billion kWh (up 10.6%) [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the thermal and renewable energy sectors, including Huaneng International, Huadian International, Guodian Power, and Datang Power. In the hydropower sector, recommended companies include Huaneng Hydropower, Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Yangtze Power. For nuclear power, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are highlighted [5].

Market Analysis - The market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3242.62 points, down 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.48% to 10305.69 points [2][4][6] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.21 trillion yuan, an increase of 22.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - The robotics sector experienced a significant surge, with nearly 20 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while AI glasses stocks also saw strong performance, particularly with a notable increase in shares of Ruixinwei [5][6] - Conversely, the photovoltaic sector faced adjustments, with Tongwei Co., Ltd. dropping nearly 5% [5] Financing Data - As of January 20, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 931.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.04 billion yuan from the previous trading day, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's financing balance increased to 880.32 billion yuan, up by 1.31 billion yuan [8] Investment Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the AI sector, particularly with the anticipated release of the latest real-time voice model by Doubao, which is expected to enhance user interaction significantly [10][11] - Analysts suggest that the domestic AI industry is beginning to catch up with international counterparts, with expectations for increased capital expenditure from leading domestic companies [11] Key News - The EAST nuclear fusion experiment in China achieved a world record by maintaining a temperature of 100 million degrees Celsius for 1000 seconds, marking a significant advancement in fusion energy research [13] - NVIDIA's advancements in robotics and AI technology were discussed, indicating a strong push towards developing a comprehensive robotics ecosystem [13] Future Events - Upcoming events include the release of Samsung's new AR glasses prototype on January 22 and the announcement of China's January PMI on January 27 [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Recommended" for the food and beverage industry [4][26]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is expected to experience a turning point due to favorable policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, with a notable increase in retail sales leading up to the Spring Festival [4][26]. - The liquor segment, particularly white liquor, is anticipated to recover as consumer spending increases, with the industry currently in an adjustment phase and valuations at historically low levels, indicating medium to long-term investment value [4][26]. - The snack segment is showing strong performance, driven by new gifting scenarios and active sales channels, particularly during the festive season [4][26]. Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Market Performance - The food and beverage index increased by 2.10%, with the snack segment leading gains at +8.54%, followed by baked goods at +7.45% and other alcoholic beverages at +4.20%. In contrast, soft drinks saw a decline of -7.14% [8][26]. Key Industry Data - In December 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,172 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Per capita spending on food, tobacco, and alcohol was 8,411 yuan, up 5.4%, accounting for 29.8% of total per capita consumption expenditure [20][17]. Company Recommendations - For the liquor sector, companies such as Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Wuliangye (000858.SZ), and Shanxi Fenjiu (600809.SH) are recommended for investment due to their potential for recovery and growth [4][26]. - In the snack category, companies like Three Squirrels (300783.SZ), Yanjinpuzi (002847.SZ), and Ganyuan Food (002991.SZ) are highlighted as having strong sales momentum [4][26]. - The dairy segment is expected to improve, with a recommendation for Yili (600887.SH) and New Dairy (002946.SZ) as the market stabilizes [4][26]. Price Trends - As of January 10, 2025, the price of fresh milk was 3.12 yuan per kilogram, indicating a recovery from previous declines [10][27]. Earnings Forecasts - The report includes earnings forecasts for key companies, with notable growth expected for Yanjin Beer, projecting a net profit increase of 55.11% to 70.62% for 2024 [24][27].

Market Analysis - The market experienced a significant rebound with major indices showing strong gains, including the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.54% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 4.71% [2][4][5] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.35 trillion yuan, an increase of 384.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [4][5] - Over 5,300 stocks rose, with less than 40 stocks declining, marking the highest number of rising stocks since October 8 of the previous year [4] Sector Performance - Key sectors that performed well included humanoid robots, Xiaohongshu concept stocks, and internet finance, with no sectors reporting declines [5][4] - Notable stocks that hit the daily limit included companies in the robotics sector and those associated with financial services [13][14] Data Insights - As of January 13, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was reported at 931.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.49 billion yuan from the previous trading day [7] - The total financing balance across both exchanges was 1.803 trillion yuan, down by 8.56 billion yuan [7] Investment Insights - The report indicates a potential for continued market rebound, with various sectors showing signs of recovery and increased investor sentiment [8] - The focus is on optimizing holdings and monitoring the direction of capital inflows as the market sentiment gradually improves [8] Key News Highlights - Nvidia announced new partnerships with IQVIA, Illumina, and others to accelerate drug discovery and enhance genomic research using AI technologies [11] - Huawei released its top ten trends in data center energy for 2025, highlighting the growing demand for data centers driven by AI computing needs [11] Future Events - Upcoming significant events include the 2025 Boao Global Digital Consumption Conference on January 19 and the release of China's January PMI on January 27 [16]