风起科技潮，船行内需海，帆扬出海天 投资评级：推荐（维持） ---机械设备行业2025年度投资策略报告 华龙证券研究所 机械行业 分析师：邢甜 SAC执业证书编号：S0230521040001 邮箱：xingt@hlzq.com 2024年12月04日 证券研究报告 请认真阅读文后免责条款 相对沪深300表现（2024.11.26) （单位：%） 表现 年初至今 下半年初至今 本月初至今 机械行业 2.91 18.32 -0.61 沪深300 11.92 10.93 -1.31 近一年行业市场走势（单位：%） 相关报告 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2023-11-26 2023-12-26 2024-01-26 2024-02-26 2024-03-26 2024-04-26 2024-05-26 2024-06-26 2024-07-26 2024-08-26 2024-09-26 2024-10-26 Wind 工程机械(申万) Wind 沪深300 2024-11-26 《华为成立具身智能创新中心，人形机器人产业化再进一步》2024.11.19 ...

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Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry showed a mixed performance in the first three quarters of 2024, with precious metals and industrial metals recovering significantly, while energy metals are still bottoming out. Overall, the non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the market in the first half of the year but experienced a pullback in the third quarter [5]. - Gold prices are expected to trend upwards due to the long-term expansion of U.S. debt and weakening dollar credit, despite short-term fluctuations influenced by speculative funds and central bank purchases [5]. - Copper supply is expected to face uncertainties, with demand recovery being crucial in 2025. The supply of copper concentrate is projected to grow, but the actual increase may fall short of expectations due to upstream supply constraints [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - In the first three quarters of 2024, the non-ferrous metals industry achieved revenues of 2.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.95%, and a net profit of 106.3 billion yuan, up 0.04% year-on-year [14]. - Precious metals and industrial metals showed significant recovery, with precious metals' revenue and net profit increasing by 25.57% and 46.14% respectively [17]. Gold Market Analysis - The traditional negative correlation between gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields has weakened, with gold prices expected to remain stable due to rising U.S. debt levels and potential inflation [29][32]. - The report anticipates that gold prices will experience upward fluctuations in 2025, supported by strong fundamentals and geopolitical events [51]. Copper Market Analysis - The copper market is facing supply challenges due to declining ore grades and increased mining costs, with global copper mine production growth expected to slow down in 2024 [60][71]. - Demand for copper is projected to recover in 2025, driven by fiscal policies in major economies and growth in new energy sectors [93]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), and Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) for gold investments, and for copper, companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), and Western Mining (601168.SH) are recommended [5].

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证券研究报告 有色金属 报告日期：2024 年 12 月 02 日 短期事件催化，主要金属价格震荡 ——有色金属行业周报 华龙证券研究所 分析师：景丹阳 执业证书编号：S0230523080001 邮箱：jingdy@hlzq.com 工业金属：11 月，我国综合 PMI 录得 50.8%，与上月持平，其中 制造业 PMI 50.3%，较上月提升 0.2 个百分点，连续三个月回升， 其中连续两个月运行在扩张区间，显示经济逐渐筑底回升。10 月 经济数据出炉，规上工业增加值同增 5.3%，预期增 5.6%，前值 5.4%，1-10 月，规上工业增加值同增 5.8%；1-10 月固定资产投 资（不含农户）同增 3.4%，预期增 3.5%，前值 3.4%。当前我国 宏观经济逐渐筑牢底部，其中制造业回暖较早，有望刺激工业金 属需求逐渐回暖。在美国大选及未来政策走向预期下，我国取消 铝材、铜材等产品出口退税，全球金属产品供应链扰动加大，短 期内对金属价格有影响。长期来看，工业金属价格可能维持震荡。 相关阅读 《黄金价格反弹，关注美国"再通胀" 预期—有色金属行业周报》2024.11.26 《美联储降息预期波动叠加出口限 ...

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