Compa n y U pda te Ch in a Res ear ch Dep t . 2024年05月30日 宝丰能源(600989.SH) Buy 买进 费倩然 H70507@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 20 能效标杆企业成长可期，绿氢助力节能降碳 事件： 公司基本资讯 国务院印发《2024-2025年节能降碳行动方案》，细化重点领域和行业节能目 产业别 化工 标。对于石化化工行业，《方案》提出：1.严格石化化工产业政策要求。2. A股价(2024/5/29) 16.63 加快石化化工行业节能降碳改造。2024—2025年，石化化工行业节能降碳改 上证指数(2024/5/29) 3111.02 造形成节能量约4000万吨标准煤、减排二氧化碳约1.1亿吨。3.推进石化化 股价12个月高/低 17.6/11.95 总发行股数(百万) 7333.36 工工艺流程再造。大力推进可再生能源替代，鼓励可再生能源制氢技术研发 A股数(百万) 7333.36 应用，支持建设绿氢炼化工程，逐步降低行业煤制氢用量。 A市值(亿元) 1219.54 结论及点评： 主要股东 宁夏宝丰集团 节能降碳目标重提，预 ...

2024 年 05 月 30 日 费倩然 H70507@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 25.5 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|----------|--------|---------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 公司基本资讯 | | | | | 产业别 | | | 化工 | | A 股价 (2024/5/29) | | | 20.98 | | 上证指数 (2024/5/29) | | | 3111.02 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | | 21.08/13.44 | | 总发行股数(百万 ) | | | 1834.33 | | A 股数(百万 ) | | | 1834.33 | | A 市值(亿元) | | | 384.84 | | | | | | | 主要股东 | | | 云天化集团有 | | | | | 限责任公司 | | | | | | | | | | (38.12%) | | 每股净值 (元) | | | 10.04 | | | | | | | 股价/账面净值 | | | 2. ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [4][7]. Core Views - The company has successfully turned a profit in Q1 2024, with a net profit of 550 million RMB, marking a significant recovery from a net loss of 4.21 billion RMB in 2023 [4][5]. - The recovery of international routes is expected to enhance the company's profitability, with international route ASK and RPK showing year-on-year growth of 226% and 261%, respectively [5][4]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.3 billion RMB, 8.8 billion RMB, and 10.5 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65% and 18% [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the transportation industry, specifically in air travel, with a focus on passenger and cargo services [2]. - As of May 29, 2024, the A-share price was 5.92 RMB, with a target price of 7.0 RMB, indicating a potential upside [2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net loss of 4.21 billion RMB, primarily due to low international route recovery and high oil prices [4][5]. - The company’s unit cost per ton-kilometer increased by 11.1% compared to 2019, while gross profit per ton-kilometer was only 62.5% of the 2019 level [4]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the international route recovery will continue, with expectations for the company to restore 80% of its international routes by the summer and autumn of 2024 [5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.29 RMB, 0.48 RMB, and 0.58 RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][5].

Compa n y Up da te Ch in aRes ea rch Dep t . 2024年5月28日 北方华创 (002371.SZ) BUY 买进 朱吉翔 C0044@capital.com.tw 目标价 370元 大基金3期成立，板块估值提升，利好龙头。 结论与建议： 公司基本资讯 产业别 电子 中国半导体大基金三期成立，规模为前两期的总和，幷且我们预计大基 A股价(2024/5/27) 304.00 深证成指(2024/5/27) 9507.75 金三期将针对半导体领域高端产品、设备、材料进行投资，以进一步增强中 股价12个月高/低 327.5/213.42 国本土半导体产业的话语权。从过往经验看，大基金一期、二期成立后，半 总发行股数(百万) 530.94 导体板块信心有所提振，短期内板块都跑赢市场。对于龙头公司股价形成利 A股数(百万) 530.44 A市值(亿元) 1612.55 好。 主要股东 北京七星华电 科技集团有限 展望未来，公司作为国内设备平台企业，在刻蚀、沉积、热处理、清洗 责任公司 设备等半导体设备领域均有大量积累，在承载国产化重任的同时自身市场空 (33.56%) 每股净 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [4][5]. Core Insights - The company maintains a leading market share in the domestic express delivery sector, with a competitive landscape that is favorable compared to peers [4]. - In the first four months of 2024, the company's express delivery revenue grew by 19.2% year-over-year, outperforming competitors in terms of growth rate [4]. - The company has a higher average price per parcel at 2.39 RMB, which is less affected by the price war compared to its competitors [4]. - The overall demand in the express delivery industry remains strong, driven by increased online consumption and lower package values [4]. - The company is enhancing its service quality and pricing power through digitalization and the introduction of premium services [4]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 41.1 billion RMB, 47.6 billion RMB, and 55.3 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 10%, 16%, and 16% [5][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.2 RMB, 1.4 RMB, and 1.6 RMB for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14x, 12x, and 11x [5][6]. - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 65.1 billion RMB in 2024 to 78.65 billion RMB in 2026 [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [14][8]. Core Views - The reopening of Tiandu Peak on May 20, 2024, is expected to boost visitor traffic during the peak season, enhancing revenue potential [6][7]. - Despite a slight year-over-year decline in visitor numbers in Q1 2024, the figures remain significantly better than pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a recovery trend [7]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 4.7 billion, RMB 5.4 billion, and RMB 5.8 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 11.8%, 14.4%, and 6.5% [8]. Company Overview - The company operates in the leisure services industry, with a current stock price of RMB 11.98 and a market capitalization of RMB 61.49 billion [2]. - Major shareholders include Huangshan Tourism Group Co., Ltd., holding 40.66% of shares [2]. - The company's product mix includes hotel services (23.8%), tourism services (24.4%), cableway services (36.3%), and landscape development (13.7%) [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 340 million, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-over-year, and a net profit of RMB 30 million, down 60.5% year-over-year [7]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to a reduction in effective ticket purchases due to a free ticket policy, while profit was impacted by increased depreciation from rapid expansion in the Huizhou cuisine business [7]. - The company anticipates gradual improvement in profit performance as the Huizhou cuisine business matures and tax base discrepancies are resolved [8]. Future Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from the Anhui provincial government's initiative to develop the Greater Huangshan area into a world-class leisure and wellness tourism destination by 2033, targeting a GDP of RMB 1.4 trillion and over 670 million domestic tourists [8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be RMB 0.65, RMB 0.74, and RMB 0.79, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 16, and 15 [8].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting the need to monitor the impact of real estate policies on consumer demand [4][42]. Core Insights - April's retail sales data fell short of expectations, with total retail sales reaching approximately 3.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, down from 3.1% in the previous month [7][42]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of daily consumption, with travel continuing to support strong performance in dining and entertainment sectors [4][42]. - The report suggests that the recent favorable real estate policies may lead to marginal improvements in durable goods consumption, particularly in home appliances and furniture [9][42]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Overview - Social retail sales were below expectations, with travel data remaining high and cross-border travel continuing to recover [4]. - The consumer price index (CPI) saw a slight increase, primarily supported by rising oil prices [4][25]. Consumer Sector Overview - The local consumption market showed mixed results, with the film market underperforming while live performances thrived [4][21]. - The white liquor industry is currently in a low season, with Moutai prices weakening [22]. - Online retail sales experienced a decline of 1.9% year-on-year, although the drop was less severe than in the previous month [7]. Retail Performance - Retail sales for enterprises above designated size reached 1.3 trillion yuan in April, a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [9]. - Durable goods consumption remains weak, but there is some strength in home appliance and furniture sales driven by replacement demand [9]. Travel and Entertainment - Travel data remains robust, with significant increases in passenger numbers during the May Day holiday, indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel [17][19]. - The film box office for April was 2.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22%, while live performance revenues increased significantly during the same period [21]. Price Trends - The CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year in April, with core CPI increasing by 0.7% [25]. - The report notes that food prices, particularly pork, are beginning to recover, while transportation costs are rising due to higher oil prices [27][28]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests monitoring leading domestic cosmetic brands, such as Pechoin and Huaxi Biological, for potential strong sales performance during the upcoming promotional events [42].

Group 1: Tariff Impact Overview - The overall impact of the U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports is considered limited[1] - Semiconductor tariffs increased from 25% to 50%, with only 1.7% of China's semiconductor exports directly going to the U.S.[4] - Electric vehicle tariffs rose from 25% to 100%, affecting only 0.38% of China's total vehicle exports to the U.S.[4] Group 2: Specific Product Analysis - Power battery tariffs increased from 7.5% to 25%, with expected direct exports to the U.S. from CATL projected at 3-5 GWh, representing 2% of the company's total battery shipments[4] - Energy storage battery tariffs also increased from 7.5% to 25%, effective in 2026, with no immediate impact[4] - Photovoltaic tariffs rose from 25% to 50%, with exports to the U.S. accounting for only 0.2% of total exports in Q1 2024[4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside in the stock price [4][6]. Core Insights - The company experienced a steady growth in April sales, with a year-over-year increase of 15.5%, selling 210,000 vehicles. The growth was primarily driven by new energy vehicles and exports [5][6]. - The collaboration with Huawei is progressing, with the establishment of a joint venture focused on smart driving solutions, which is expected to enhance the company's market position [5][6]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of RMB 81 billion, RMB 97 billion, and RMB 117 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with an expected EPS of RMB 0.82, RMB 0.98, and RMB 1.18 [6][7]. Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the automotive industry, with a market capitalization of RMB 123.62 billion and a current stock price of RMB 15.05 as of May 9, 2024 [2]. - The company’s sales composition includes 96.04% from complete vehicles and 3.96% from outsourcing [2]. - The major shareholder is China Changan Automobile Group Co., Ltd., holding 17.98% of the shares [2]. Sales Performance - In April, the company’s sales of new energy vehicles reached 51,700 units, representing a year-over-year increase of 130%, contributing to 24.6% of total sales [5]. - Cumulative sales from January to April totaled 902,000 units, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 14.2% [5]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profit growth rates are +7%, +20%, and +21% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, after excluding the impact of the 2023 consolidation of the Deep Blue brand [6][7]. - The expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 18, 15, and 13, respectively [6][7].

Consumption Overview - In March, the total retail sales amounted to 3.9 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% (compared to +5.5% in January-February) [23] - Online retail sales reached 1.2 trillion, down 6.3% year-on-year, with an online retail share of 29.6%, up 3.1 percentage points from January-February [23] Entertainment and Travel - Sports and entertainment consumption showed strong resilience, increasing by 19% year-on-year [5] - During the Qingming holiday, 5.189 million people crossed borders, a 69.6% increase compared to the same period last year [18] Durable Goods and Automotive Sales - Durable goods demand remains insufficient, with automotive retail showing negative growth due to significant discounts affecting sales [5] - In March, automotive sales increased by 9.9% year-on-year, despite the overall retail sales decline [5] Price Trends - March CPI increased by 0.1%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, while PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year [42] - Food prices saw a significant decline, with fresh vegetables and fruits experiencing a month-on-month decrease of 4.2 and 4.4 percentage points, respectively [52] Market Performance - From March 18 to April 15, the consumer sector significantly underperformed the market, with declines in various sub-sectors: food and beverage down 3.7%, textile and apparel down 1.7%, and retail down 8% [35] - The overall retail growth rate over the past two years averaged 6.8%, indicating moderate growth despite recent slowdowns [60] Future Outlook - The upcoming national holidays in April to June are expected to sustain high travel demand, supporting related industries [70] - Companies with high earnings certainty and dividends are recommended for investment focus during the earnings season [78]