Compa n y U pda te Ch in a Re sea rch Dep t . 2024年2月28日 何利超 金山办公 (688111.SH) Buy 买进 H70529@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 310 全年业绩略高于预期中值，关注“办公+AI”商用进展 公司基本资讯 事件： 产业别 计算机 A股价(2024/2/27) 261.40 公司发布2023年业绩快报，2023全年营业收入45.56亿元，YOY+17.27%； 上证指数(2024/2/27) 3015.48 归母净利润13.19亿元，YOY+18.03%；扣非后净利润12.64亿元，YOY+34.58%。 股价12个月高/低 529.63/198.5 营收和归母净利润均处于此前预告的中值偏上，扣非后净利润接近此前预告 总发行股数(百万) 461.82 上限，维持“买进”评级。 A股数(百万) 461.82  Q4维持较高增长态势，订阅业务仍是前进主力：单看Q4，公司营收12.86 A市值(亿元) 1207.19 亿元，YOY+18%；归母净利润4.26亿元，YOY+40%。全年来看，人订阅业 主要股东 Kingso ...

Compa n y U pda te Ch in a Res ear ch Dep t . 2023年02月28日 太阳纸业(002078.SZ) 买进（Buy） 赵旭东 H70556@capital.com.tw 目标价(元) 15.8 4Q利润大幅增长，看好公司林浆纸一体化的成本优势 公司基本信息 结论与建议： 产业别 轻工制造 事件：公司发布2023年业绩快报，2023年实现营收397.03亿元，YOY-0.16%， A股价(2024/2/28) 13.73 深证成指(2024/2/28) 9047.10 归母净利润30.72亿元，YOY+9.38%，扣非后净利润30.16亿元，YOY+8.83%， 股价12个月高/低 14.24/10.01 EPS为1.10元，YOY+5.21%，归母及扣非后净利润均创历史新高，符合预期。 总发行股数(百万) 2794.57 A股数(百万) 2764.88 其中，2023Q4 实现营收 105.01 亿元，YOY+3.70%，归母净利润 9.35 亿元， A市值(亿元) 379.62 YOY+72.93%，扣非后净利润9.31亿元，YOY+73.61%，公司Q4利润大 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH/1880.HK) [1] Core Views - The company plans to increase investment in the Sanya International Duty-Free City project by RMB 1.07 billion, enhancing its duty-free business [3][4] - The company has seen a significant recovery in customer traffic, with daily visits to Sanya International Duty-Free City exceeding 60,000 during the Spring Festival, a year-on-year increase of 40.4% [4] - The projected net profits for 2023-2025 are RMB 6.72 billion, RMB 8.65 billion, and RMB 10.97 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 33.5%, 28.8%, and 26.8% respectively [4] Summary by Sections Company Information - Industry: Leisure Services - A-share price as of February 27, 2024: RMB 86.19 - Market capitalization: RMB 168.28 billion - Major shareholder: China Tourism Group Co., Ltd. (50.30%) [2] Financial Performance - Net profit for 2022 was RMB 5.03 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 47.89% - Expected net profit for 2023 is RMB 6.72 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 33.52% - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is projected at RMB 3.25, with a year-on-year increase of 11.45% [3][4] Investment and Growth Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its duty-free business in Hainan, with a comprehensive retail complex that includes duty-free shopping and high-end hotels [4] - The company has signed supplementary agreements with major airports to streamline future cooperation, which is expected to boost airport duty-free sales [4] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a steady recovery in international passenger flow, with January 2024's international passenger volume reaching 5.12 million, recovering to 72% of 2019 levels [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2023-2025 are 27x, 21x, and 16x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [4]

Compa n y U p da te Ch in a Res ear ch Dep t . 2024年02月27日 海尔智家(600690.SH/6690.HK) Buy 买进 王睿哲 C0062@capital.com.tw 目标价(元/港币) 29/30 冰洗龙头，静待行业政策推动 公司基本资讯 结论及建议： 产业别 家用电器 A股价(2024/2/26) 23.81  家电“以旧换新”政策值得关注：2月23日中央财经委第四次会议中提出 上证指数(2024/2/26) 2977.02 鼓励汽车、家电等传统消费品以旧换新，推动耐用消费品以旧换新，要 股价12个月高/低 26/19.86 坚持中央财政和地方政府联动，统筹支持全链条各环节，更多惠及消费 总发行股数(百万) 9438.11 A股数(百万) 6308.55 者。我们认为本次政策值得关注：首先，此次“以旧换新”政策具有全 A市值(亿元) 1502.07 国性，并提出了中央财政和地方政府联动，我们认为这有别于2021-2023 主要股东 香港中央结算 年鼓励有条件地区，以地方补贴主导的“家电以旧换新”、“家电下乡” (代理人)有限 公司(23.64 ...

Compa n y Up da te Ch in aRes ea rch Dep t . 2 024年2月27日 拓荆科技-U (688072) BUY 买进 朱吉翔 C0044@capital.com.tw 目标价 230元 国产替代空间大，估值具备安全边际 公司基本资讯 结论与建议： 产业别 电子 公司作为国内薄膜沉积设备龙头企业，在 PECVD 设备领域领先其他竞争 A股价(2024/2/26) 189.01 上证指数(2024/2/26) 2977.02 对手，是中国半导体产业链国产替代版图中重要的拼图。我们预计，为应对 股价12个月高/低 330.8/146.5 美国对中国半导体产业的持续封锁，中国扶持半导体产业，特别是半导体设 总发行股数(百万) 188.19 备以及先进制程发展的力度将大幅提升。公司作为细分行业龙头，将持续受 A股数(百万) 104.08 A市值(亿元) 196.72 益于国产替代带来的业绩与估值的提升。预计公司 2024、2025 年净利润 8.2 主要股东 国家集成电路 亿元和11.8亿元，同比增长23%和44%，EPS分别为4.32元和6.24元，目前 产业投资基金 股价对 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------|-------|-------|-----------------------------|-------|-------| | 附一：合幷损益表 会计年度（百万元） | | | 2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E | | | | 营业收入 | | | 687 1077 1238 1682 2036 | | | | 经营成本 | | | 336 493 505 657 763 | | | | 研发费用 | | | 153 161 204 277 336 | | | | 营业税金及附加 | | | 1 1 2 2 2 | | | | 销售费用 | | | 29 34 45 62 75 | | | | 管理费用 | | | 60 69 95 128 140 | | | | 财务费用 | | | 8 -27 10 19 23 | | | | 资产减值损失 | | | -3 -6 5 5 6 | | | | 投资收益 | | | 9 1 6 7 ...

Compa n y U pda te Ch in a Re sea rch Dep t . m 2 024年2月26日 比亚迪(002594.SZ/01211.HK) Buy 买进 沈嘉婕 H70455@capital.com.tw 公司发布多款产品，有望加快抢占燃油车市场，建议“买进” 目标价(元/港元) 215RMB/220HKD 结论与建议： 公司基本资讯 产业别 汽车 近期比亚迪发布多款产品，在主流市场和高端市场持续发力。秦PLUS荣 A股价(2024/2/25) 182.68 耀版实现“电比油低”的定价，有望加快抢占燃油车市场。百万级超跑仰望 深证成指(2024/2/25) 9069.42 U9展示了公司领先的技术实力，有望带动公司品牌向上。 股价12个月高/低 276.58/162.77 通过积极的定价策略，我们认为公司今年能够更多地抢占燃油车市场份 总发行股数(百万) 2911.14 额；并且随着高阶智驾功能逐步补齐，加上仰望品牌提升了公司形象，公司 A股数(百万) 1164.76 高端品牌销量有望提升。通过两端发力，公司产品均价有望保持相对稳定。 A市值(亿元) 2127.79 此外，公司全球 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% [4][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the acceleration of AI server demand driven by central government initiatives to develop intelligent computing centers [4]. - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of the year increased by 25% year-on-year, with a notable 43% increase in Q3, indicating strong performance in the AI server business [4][5]. - The company's traditional business margins are improving, with Q3 gross margin at 4.39%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin at 1.5%, up 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. Company Overview - The company operates primarily in the computer industry, with a market capitalization of 157.68 billion RMB and a current share price of 28.65 RMB as of February 23, 2024 [1]. - Major shareholders include Guo Wei, holding 23.12% of shares, and the company has a total of 669.58 million shares issued [1]. Product Portfolio - The company's revenue breakdown includes 35.49% from enterprise value-added services, 57.95% from consumer electronics distribution, 4.33% from cloud services, and 2.22% from proprietary brands [2]. Financial Performance - The company’s projected net profits for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 1.267 billion, 1.577 billion, and 1.938 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.11%, 24.49%, and 22.90% [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.89 RMB, 2.36 RMB, and 2.89 RMB for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 12, and 10 [6]. Market Outlook - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the domestic market's shift towards AI servers, especially in light of supply constraints on NVIDIA chips, which may enhance its market share [4][5]. - The cloud service revenue has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 71% from 2018 to 2022, indicating robust growth potential in this segment [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 88 CNY [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 175.36 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 5.92%, and a net profit of 16.81 billion CNY, up 3.57% year-over-year [3][4]. - The company emphasizes shareholder returns and aims to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio, with cash dividends over the past three years accounting for 40.65%, 31.84%, and 30.95% of net profit respectively [4][5]. - Despite a decline in product prices, the company has managed to increase sales volume due to new capacity coming online, demonstrating resilience in profitability [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the chemical industry, with a market capitalization of 212.59 billion CNY and a share price of 67.71 CNY as of February 2, 2024 [2]. - Major shareholders include Yantai Guofeng Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. with a 21.59% stake [2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in Q4 net profit, with a year-over-year growth of 56.58% [3][4]. - The average prices for key products in 2023 were as follows: MDI at 15,800 CNY/ton (down 7.5% YoY), pure MDI at 20,000 CNY/ton (down 3.2% YoY), and TDI at 18,000 CNY/ton (down 0.9% YoY) [3][4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 16.81 billion CNY in 2023, 20.5 billion CNY in 2024, and 23.1 billion CNY in 2025, with corresponding EPS of 5.36, 6.53, and 7.36 CNY [5][7]. - The current P/E ratios for the next three years are estimated at 13, 10, and 9 respectively, indicating a low valuation for 2024 [4][5].