Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the electricity production industry regarding decarbonization Core Insights - The electricity production sector is the largest contributor to global emissions, and decarbonizing it involves complex optimization of costs, geographical potential, and technology complementarities [3][7] - Recent energy-economy models indicate a significant shift towards renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, which are projected to dominate the electricity mix by 2050 in scenarios aiming to limit global warming to below 2°C [3][10] - The paper synthesizes various specialized analyses to present a comprehensive overview of decarbonization strategies and the evolving role of different energy sources [8][15] Summary by Sections Introduction - The decarbonization of electricity is a macroeconomic priority due to its significant share in global emissions, necessitating a stable low-carbon electricity system [7][8] The Electricity Mix - Various models project that solar and wind energy will increasingly dominate the electricity mix, with significant regional variations based on local conditions [19][31] - Historical trends show a rapid increase in renewable energy capacity, with countries like Denmark and Lithuania achieving high shares of solar and wind [19][20] Types of Low-Carbon Electricity Production - Solar and wind energy are identified as the most cost-effective options for decarbonization, although they face challenges related to supply variability and land use [51][53] - Other options like hydropower, geothermal energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), biofuels, and nuclear energy are also discussed, each with unique advantages and limitations [54][56][61] The Role of Cost - The report emphasizes the importance of cost in determining the viability of different energy sources, with solar and wind showing the lowest levelized cost of electricity [4][51] Flexibility Options - Flexibility options such as energy storage, grid extension, and demand flexibility are crucial for integrating variable renewable energy sources into the electricity system [5][46] Conclusion - The findings suggest that while achieving 100% renewable electricity may be challenging, high shares of renewables are feasible, and a diversified energy portfolio can enhance system reliability [40][46]

IMF Country Report No. 24/305 KINGDOM OF ESWATINI SELECTED ISSUES September 2024 This paper on Kingdom of Eswatini was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on September 10, 2024. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (2 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The introduction of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) will significantly impact monetary operations, requiring central banks to adapt their frameworks to manage the demand and supply of reserves effectively [14][15][29] - The analysis identifies three scenarios of CBDC substitution: CBDC substituting for cash, bank deposits, and central bank reserves, each with distinct implications for monetary operations [30][31][54] - The design features of CBDCs, such as access, remuneration, and holding limits, will influence the degree of substitution and the resulting effects on monetary policy [31][32] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the implications of CBDCs on monetary policy transmission and operations, emphasizing the need for central banks to anticipate challenges associated with CBDC implementation [14][15] A Primer on Monetary Operations - Central banks aim for price stability through various monetary policy regimes, including inflation targeting, exchange rate targeting, and monetary targeting [19][20] - Monetary operations involve setting objectives, intermediate targets, operational targets, and using instruments to achieve these targets [20][24] Implications of CBDC for Monetary Operations - CBDC is considered a central bank liability, similar to reserves or cash, and its substitution for other forms of money can affect monetary operations [29] - The report outlines three scenarios of CBDC substitution, each affecting reserve balances and monetary policy differently [30][31] Effects on Short-Term Interest Rates - Scenario 1 (CBDC substituting for cash) is unlikely to significantly affect short-term interest rates but may complicate liquidity forecasting [54] - Scenario 2 (CBDC substituting for bank deposits) is likely to affect short-term interest rates due to changes in reserve balances [55] - Scenario 3 (CBDC substituting for reserves) may not significantly impact short-term interest rates if CBDC is treated equivalently to reserves [61] Adapting Monetary Operations and CBDC Designs - Central banks need to adapt liquidity forecasting methodologies to account for the volatility of CBDC demand [62] - Potential solutions include switching to fixed rate targeting, increasing intra-day liquidity windows, and adjusting operational frameworks to manage interest rate volatility [63][66]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry under discussion. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) in the evolving payments landscape, highlighting its potential to complement existing payment systems like fast payment systems (FPS) and e-money, while addressing issues such as financial inclusion and payment efficiency [12][30][41]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report discusses the comparative analysis of retail CBDC, FPS, and e-money, emphasizing the need for central banks to consider their specific payment landscapes and objectives when exploring these options [12][14]. 2. Understanding Retail Payment Systems - It outlines the functionalities and features of various payment systems, including e-money, FPS, and CBDC, and describes their core components: instrument, infrastructure, and scheme [16][19]. 3. CBDC's Role in an Evolving Payments Landscape - The report identifies emerging trends in the payments landscape, such as the decline of cash usage and the rise of private digital payment networks, which pose risks to the efficiency and resilience of payment systems [30][31][39]. 4. Implementing a Strategy - It discusses the strategies central banks can adopt to explore CBDC, considering practical constraints such as legal, regulatory, and resource limitations [12][14][41]. 5. Concluding Thoughts - The report concludes that a holistic approach is necessary for central banks to navigate the complexities of the payment landscape, ensuring that CBDC can effectively support their policy objectives [12][14][41].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that 82 percent of the Implementation Plan (IP) actions are completed or on track for completion, with 18 percent delayed, suggesting a generally positive outlook on the implementation progress [5][9][22]. Core Insights - The Institutional Safeguards Review (ISR) was launched to ensure robust governance structures within the Fund, with a comprehensive Implementation Plan developed to address recommendations made in June 2022 [7][8]. - The Office of Internal Audit (OIA) confirmed substantial progress, with 85 percent of actions reported as completed or on track by December 2023, which aligns with the current assessment of 82 percent [4][9]. - The report highlights that the majority of delayed actions are expected to be completed by the end of 2024, indicating a commitment to follow through on the recommendations [5][23]. Summary by Sections Implementation Progress - The OIA assessment found that 82 percent of IP actions were either completed (64 percent) or on track (18 percent), while 18 percent were delayed [5][9]. - The remaining actions are anticipated to be completed by the end of 2024, with no significant issues identified that would impact their completion [9][22]. Institutional Safeguards Review (ISR) - The ISR aimed to strengthen the Fund's Data Analysis and Integrity (DAI) frameworks and improve trust in the Dispute Resolution System (DRS) [7][16]. - The Implementation Plan consists of 71 actions grouped under four key themes: DAI, leadership tone from the top, building trust and strengthening DRS processes, and oversight and accountability [8][16]. OIA's Assessment - OIA's assessment confirmed the staff's update from December 2023, with a focus on the effectiveness of completed actions and opportunities for future enhancements [9][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous engagement with staff to evaluate in-progress and delayed actions during 2024-2025 [11][30]. Recommendations and Enhancements - The report identifies areas for potential enhancements in the implementation of DAI and EP actions, which are left to staff's discretion to operationalize [30][38]. - Specific recommendations include improving measurement mechanisms for compliance with guidance notes and enhancing interdepartmental review processes [34][36].

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------| | | | | | Currencies in Turbulence: | Exchange Rates Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen, Ha Minh Nguyen WP/24/186 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 9A9 2024 AUG © 2024 International Monetar ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but emphasizes the potential for green growth and economic opportunities in Brazil's climate strategies [2][3]. Core Insights - The Brazilian economy is significantly exposed to climate change, particularly in agriculture and hydropower, with vulnerabilities exacerbated by land-use patterns [3][11]. - Brazil has vast opportunities for green growth due to its renewable energy mix and biodiversity, which can enhance economic potential while addressing climate risks [3][13]. - Policy options are proposed to strengthen resilience and promote green growth, including fiscal incentives for forest protection and investments in climate-smart agriculture [3][15]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Climate change is already impacting Brazil's economy, with rising temperatures and increased extreme weather events leading to significant economic losses [11][12]. Key Vulnerabilities - **Agriculture**: Traditional agriculture contributes about 7% to GDP, while agribusiness accounts for nearly 25%. Adverse weather conditions significantly affect agricultural production and prices, with past droughts causing price differentials of up to 100% for key commodities [16][18]. - **Hydropower Generation**: Hydropower constitutes around 60% of Brazil's electricity generation. Climate change is expected to reduce hydropower output by approximately 20% by 2050 under high emission scenarios, leading to increased energy costs [19][22]. - **Financial Sector**: About 20% of the financial sector's credit portfolio is exposed to climate-sensitive sectors, with agriculture being a significant component. The financial sector is increasingly recognizing climate risks, influencing lending behaviors [25][27]. Policy Options to Strengthen Resilience and Green the Economy - Brazil's updated climate strategies aim to reduce emissions by 53% below 2005 levels by 2030 and achieve net zero emissions by 2050. Key measures include enhancing green finance, promoting a bio-economy, and accelerating the energy transition [33][34]. - The Ecological Transformation Plan focuses on green growth through technology and productivity improvements while decarbonizing the economy [34][35]. - The Amazon Fund and carbon credit initiatives are designed to support sustainable forestry and reduce illegal deforestation, with the potential to generate significant revenues [56][57].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The paper presents a calibrated DSGE model tailored for the economy of North Macedonia, developed through a collaboration between the National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia and the IMF, focusing on the unique characteristics of a small open economy with a fixed exchange rate regime [3][9][10]. - The model aims to enhance the understanding of the business cycle drivers in North Macedonia and serves as an additional analytical tool for policy analysis, complementing existing models [10][11]. - The model incorporates sector-specific technologies and trends to accurately reflect the structural changes in the Macedonian economy, including the Balassa-Samuelson effect [3][9][24]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction highlights the increasing reliance of central banks on advanced macroeconomic models like DSGE for policy analysis and forecasting, particularly in emerging markets [8][9]. Stylized Facts of the Economy of North Macedonia - The Macedonian economy is characterized by a fixed exchange rate regime and has experienced significant structural changes, with a focus on maintaining price stability through a stable nominal exchange rate [14][18]. - Historical data shows an average GDP growth rate of approximately 2.6%, with notable contractions during the Global Financial Crisis, political crises, and the COVID pandemic [14][18]. Structure of the Model - The model includes various sectors such as households, production, exports, and imports, each with specific optimization problems and first-order conditions [25][35][40]. - Households are modeled to optimize utility while facing constraints related to consumption, investment, and labor supply [25][27]. Calibration - The calibration process involved iterative testing to ensure the model's properties align with empirical data, focusing on impulse response functions and historical simulations [61][62]. - Key parameters were set based on observed data, including the share of labor in production (0.6) and the share of domestic production in final production (0.475) [64][66]. Model Diagnostics - The model's steady-state characteristics were compared with observed data, revealing that the calibrated shares of private consumption, investment, and exports align closely with historical averages [68][70]. - The model reflects a higher export share, indicating a trend growth rate that is expected to continue over the forecast horizon [70].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) ecosystem Core Insights - The CBDC ecosystem is a complex and interconnected system that poses significant cyber risks, necessitating robust security measures to maintain public trust and operational resilience [14][15][31] - The design choices for CBDCs have substantial implications for their operational and cyber resilience, with various models (retail vs. wholesale, token vs. account-based) presenting different risk profiles [17][18][46] Summary by Sections Introduction - Over 100 central banks are exploring CBDCs to modernize payment systems and enhance resilience and security [14] - CBDCs create a complex ecosystem that amplifies existing risks and introduces new ones [14][15] Section I: Cyber Risk: Context and Overview - CBDCs face digital risks that intersect with traditional payment system risks, requiring a focus on confidentiality, integrity, and availability [20][21] - Human vulnerabilities account for over 80% of cyberattacks, highlighting the importance of security hygiene and training [21] Section II: Cyber Risk in the CBDC Ecosystem - The CBDC ecosystem is highly interconnected, with various participants that can be points of failure [32] - Unique cyber risks for CBDCs include compromises of core servers, payment systems, and insider threats [38][39] Section III: Design and Technology Choices: Cybersecurity Implications - Design choices for CBDCs affect their risk profile and require safeguards for information confidentiality and service availability [46] - The report discusses various design options, including distribution models and token vs. account-based systems, each with distinct security considerations [47][50] Section IV: Foundational Requirements and Good Practices for a Resilient CBDC Ecosystem - Emphasizes the need for strong governance, risk management, and cybersecurity frameworks from the initial stages of CBDC development [45] - Highlights the importance of collaboration among stakeholders and the establishment of national cybersecurity strategies [41][42]

Central Bank Digital Currency Data Use and Privacy Protection Kieran Murphy, Sun Tao, Yong Sarah Zhou, Natsuki Tsuda, Nicolas Zhang, Victor Budau, Frankosiligi Solomon, Kathleen Kao, Morana Vucinic, and Kristina Miggiani NOTE/2024/004 FINTECH NOTE Central Bank Digital Currency Data Use and Privacy Protection Prepared by Kieran Murphy, Sun Tao, Yong Sarah Zhou, Natsuki Tsuda, Nicolas Zhang, Victor Budau, Frankosiligi Solomon, Kathleen Kao, Morana Vucinic, and Kristina Miggiani1 August 2024 1 With contributio ...