Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights that global employment gender gaps are primarily driven by labor force participation (LFP) rates, with most countries showing higher employment for men than women, exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic [11][12][22] - It emphasizes the need for policies to enhance female LFP by addressing both supply and demand issues in the labor market [11][12] Summary by Sections Introduction - The labor market exhibits significant inequalities between genders despite a near-equal demographic distribution, with men being over 50% more likely to be employed than women [12][13] What Drives Employment Gender Gaps? - Gender gaps in LFP rates are the main contributors to employment gender gaps globally, with advanced economies showing a decreasing trend while emerging markets exhibit an increasing trend [22][24] - The report uses a structured framework to analyze the factors contributing to employment gender gaps, focusing on LFP rates, employment rates, and population shares [20][21] A Distributional View - Approximately 94% of countries had positive employment gender gaps in 2022, indicating that men are more likely to be employed than women across various income groups and geographical areas [24][58] - The LFP rate is identified as the most important factor explaining employment gender gaps globally [62][67] Revisiting the COVID-19 She-Cession - The pandemic significantly widened the global employment gender gap, primarily due to changes in LFP rates, with varying impacts across advanced economies, emerging markets, and low-income countries [25][69][91] - The report details the dynamics of employment gender gaps during the pandemic, highlighting the need for tailored policy responses to address these disparities [91][101] Conclusion - The report calls for a deeper understanding of the root causes of lower female LFP rates and emphasizes the importance of targeted strategies to enhance female participation in the labor force [102]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The paper examines the relationship between export activity and a firm's energy intensity, highlighting the role of firm upgrading in reducing energy intensity. It introduces a firm-level complexity index that considers both the complexity of traded goods and market destinations. Increased external demand encourages firms to upgrade, leading to lower energy intensity, although financial constraints can limit these gains, particularly for small firms. Larger firms benefit from higher markups post-upgrading, while small firms face tougher competition and lower markups after upgrading [4][7][13][16]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction emphasizes the importance of energy intensity in the context of the green transition and its interplay with international trade. It discusses the complexities arising from globalization trends and regulatory changes, which impact energy efficiency and trade competitiveness [7][8]. Data and Measurements - The study utilizes three primary datasets: an annual firm-level survey from Statistics Lithuania, product-level customs data, and global trade data from CEPII's BACI database. The analysis focuses on the period from 2000 to 2015, capturing Lithuania's economic transitions, including its EU accession [23][25][30]. Empirical Strategy - The empirical strategy involves constructing firm-level external demand shocks and employing a shift-share design to identify the causal effects of external demand on firm upgrading and energy intensity. The analysis accounts for firm-specific characteristics and industry trends [62][74][78]. Results - The findings indicate that increased external demand leads to greater firm-level complexity, with small firms experiencing significant reductions in energy intensity as complexity grows. In contrast, large firms do not show significant improvements in energy efficiency. The results suggest that Lithuania's EU accession facilitated energy efficiency improvements through regulatory standards and competitive pressures [13][16][47][49]. Conclusion - The conclusion highlights the necessity of targeted support for small firms to enhance their energy efficiency and the importance of maintaining open trade policies in a fragmented global landscape. The study underscores the heterogeneous impacts of firm upgrading on energy intensity across different firm sizes [4][16][19].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Transparency and communications are critical to the effectiveness of the IMF, as they build trust and understanding of the Fund's work and policy advice [14][25] - The IMF has made significant progress in enhancing its communication strategy since the last review in 2014, adapting to changes in the global economy and communications technology [7][26] - The evolving global economic landscape and media transformations necessitate a more strategic and selective approach to communications [8][33] Summary by Sections Objectives, Audiences, and Scope of Fund Communications - The Fund communicates to support transparency, raise awareness, and build understanding of its work, which contributes to economic and financial stability [37][42] - Policymakers are the primary audience, but the Fund also engages with media, think tanks, civil society organizations, and the general public through various channels [44][46] Fund Communications Over the Past Decade - The global economy has faced significant changes, including the pandemic and geopolitical conflicts, which have influenced the Fund's communication strategies [54][56] - The Fund has adapted its communications to leverage digital platforms and engage broader audiences effectively [58][60] Evolving Fund Communications Going Forward - The report proposes transitioning from "doing more" to being more evidence-based and selective in communications, focusing on high-value topics [17][33] - Strengthening communication channels and integrating traditional media with social media are key strategies for future engagement [8][17] Impact Assessment for Strategic and Evidence-Based Communications - The Fund has made strides in measuring the impact of its communications, but further efforts are needed to enhance evaluation frameworks and stakeholder feedback mechanisms [11][11] AI and Fund Communications - The report highlights the need for the Fund to prepare for the impact of AI on communications, emphasizing the importance of adapting to technological advancements [11][33] Engagement with Stakeholders - The Fund has expanded its engagement with various stakeholders, including civil society and local media, to enhance understanding and support for its policies [10][79] - The Fund's efforts to broaden its reach have resulted in increased awareness and understanding of its policy recommendations [79][80]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the residential property market in Vietnam Core Insights - The Government Statistics Office (GSO) is working on developing a Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) to assess developments and risks in the Vietnam property market, with the latest technical assistance mission conducted in April 2024 [8][19] - The GSO has faced challenges in data collection for the RPPI, including the discontinuation of surveys and web scraping due to data quality issues and legislative constraints [9][20] - Recent taxation developments, including electronic reporting of property transactions, may enhance the potential for using administrative data in RPPI compilation [10][27] Summary by Sections Summary of Mission Outcomes and Priority Recommendations - A technical assistance mission was conducted to assist the GSO in developing the RPPI, marking the fourth such mission [8] - The GSO is encouraged to collaborate with the General Department of Taxation (GDT) to secure timely access to property transaction data [11][29] - Priority recommendations include securing access to electronic records by December 2024 and assessing data quality by June 2025 [16] Detailed Technical Assessment and Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of administrative data for compiling a reliable RPPI, which has been challenging due to under-reporting and data collection methods [22][23] - The GSO is advised to assess the completeness of data and consider valuation banding to improve data quality [30] - The report outlines the need for a Construction Output Price Index (COPI) to complement the existing Construction Input Price Index (CIPI) [13][38] Residential Property Price Index - The GSO has previously attempted to collect data through surveys and web scraping, but these efforts faced significant challenges [24][26] - The report highlights the potential for improved data collection through recent legislative changes and electronic reporting of property transactions [27][28] - The GSO is encouraged to compare online asking prices against reported transaction prices to enhance the RPPI [32][34] Construction Price Index - The GSO aims to compile a COPI by the end of 2025, which will serve as an important indicator of inflationary pressures in the construction sector [37] - Discussions with key stakeholders, including the Ministry of Construction, are necessary to establish a broad methodological approach for the COPI [39][40] - The report recommends identifying weights for various construction activities to ensure a representative index [41]

STAFF CLIMATE NOTES Destination Net Zero: The Urgent Need for a Global Carbon Tax on Aviation and Shipping Simon Black, Ian Parry, Sunalika Singh, and Nate Vernon-Lin IMF STAFF CLIMATE NOTES 2024/003 ©2024 International Monetary Fund Destination Net Zero: The Urgent Need for a Global Carbon Tax on Aviation and Shipping IMF Staff Climate Notes 2024/003 Simon Black, Ian Parry, Sunalika Singh, and Nate Vernon-Lin* DISCLAIMER: The IMF Staff Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on criti ...

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE REPORT MONTENEGRO Report on External Sector Statistics Mission (July 29–August 9, 2024) AUGUST 2024 Prepared By Joji Ishikawa and Robert Pupynin Authoring Departments: Statistics Department DISCLAIMER "The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund to the authorities of Montenegro (the "CD recipient") in response to their request for technical assistance. This document (in whole or in part) or summaries thereof may be d ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The report highlights a significant divergence in post-pandemic earnings growth across U.S. counties, with areas less impacted by the pandemic experiencing faster earnings growth [2][6] - Average earnings in counties with stronger labor markets were estimated to be 18 percent higher between April 2020 and December 2021 compared to those with weaker labor markets [6] - The findings suggest that labor market competition has led to increased earnings disparities across counties while compressing earnings among workers within stronger labor markets [8][9] Summary by Sections Introduction - The post-pandemic U.S. labor market saw rapid divergence in earnings growth, with counties experiencing lower earnings losses at the onset of COVID-19 showing faster earnings growth [6] - Average earnings increased by 35 percent in the top 10 percentile counties, while only a 5 percent rise was observed in the bottom 10 percentile counties between January 2020 and December 2021 [6] Data - The analysis utilizes a comprehensive employer-employee dataset from Homebase, covering 9 million workers across over 1 million establishments in the U.S. [6][10] - The dataset provides detailed information on wages and hours, allowing for a granular analysis of worker earnings [10] Key Findings - Earnings growth diverged across counties, with the top decile counties experiencing cumulative growth over 46.07 percent higher than the bottom decile from 2020 to 2021 [15] - Nonmanagerial workers experienced a cumulative earnings growth of 29.7 percentage points higher than managerial workers during the same period [17] - Workers in smaller firms saw average earnings increase to 131.3 percent of their 2019 level by December 2021, compared to 115.1 percent for those in larger firms [18] Labor Market Conditions - The report establishes a positive relationship between local labor market strength and post-pandemic earnings growth, with a one-standard-deviation increase in labor market strength leading to a 6 percent increase in hourly wages and an 18 percent increase in total earnings [26] - The analysis employs a shift-share method to assess the impact of labor market conditions on earnings growth, highlighting the importance of local labor market dynamics [22][26]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed. Core Insights - U.S. inflation surged in 2021-22, peaking at 9.0% in June 2022, and has since declined to 2.5% by August 2024, primarily due to a drop in goods inflation, while services inflation remains elevated [2][6] - The study highlights a significant relationship between service sector wage growth and services inflation, indicating that tight labor markets have a persistent effect on inflation dynamics [2][6][22] - Local labor market tightness accounted for an average of 68.7% of services inflation (excluding housing) between Q3 2022 and Q1 2023, emphasizing the importance of labor market conditions in inflationary pressures [6][16] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the dramatic rise and subsequent decline of U.S. inflation, with a focus on the divergence between goods and services inflation [6] - It emphasizes the role of the labor market in inflation dynamics, noting that tight labor markets contribute significantly to inflation above target levels [6] Data and Measurements - The analysis utilizes proprietary microdata from Homebase, covering detailed wage and hour information for nearly 9 million workers across 1 million U.S. firms, complemented by price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics [11][12] - The focus is on services inflation excluding housing, as this sector is more labor-intensive and sensitive to wage growth [11][12] Empirical Approach - The report employs a local projection instrumental variable (LP-IV) approach to estimate the wage-price pass-through, capturing the relationship between local labor market tightness and inflation [13][14] - The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is used as a measure of labor market tightness, reflecting the dynamics of the post-pandemic economy [7][14] Findings - The results indicate a strong pass-through from local labor market tightness to wage growth, with a one-log-point increase in the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio leading to a 27 percentage point increase in year-on-year service wage growth over a 10-month horizon [16] - A one-percentage-point increase in service sector wage growth corresponds to a 0.32-percentage-point increase in year-on-year services inflation, suggesting significant inflationary pressures from wage growth [16] - The findings highlight that local labor market tightness was a key driver of inflation, accounting for a substantial share of inflation across various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) [16][22] Conclusion - The report concludes that persistent labor market tightness will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, complicating efforts to achieve inflation targets [22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the pension reform options in Korea. Core Insights - The aging population in Korea is projected to significantly challenge the financial sustainability of the public pension system, with public pension spending potentially increasing by 4% of GDP from 2020 to 2070, while contribution revenue remains largely constant [2][15]. - The report evaluates three main pension policy options to stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio: increasing the retirement age, raising social security contributions, and lowering the pension replacement rate. A combination of these adjustments is suggested to yield better results than using each policy in isolation [2][15]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Korea's demographic structure is rapidly changing due to lower fertility rates and increased life expectancy, leading to a higher old-age dependency ratio (OADR) [7][17]. - The OADR is expected to surpass that of Japan by around 2050, indicating a significant shift in the population age structure [17]. Demographic Changes and Pension Schemes - The Korean pension system is maturing, with pension spending increasing from 1.8% to 4.0% of GDP between 2009 and 2022, and projected to rise further due to demographic changes [9][29]. - The National Pension Scheme (NPS) is expected to go into deficit by 2041 and deplete its assets by 2055, despite previous reforms aimed at reducing replacement rates and increasing the retirement age [11][29]. Model and Results - The report utilizes a dynamic overlapping generation model to analyze the fiscal implications of aging and potential reforms [14][38]. - Under current policies, pension spending is projected to increase by 4 percentage points of GDP by 2070, while contribution revenue remains stable, leading to a projected increase in net public debt by nearly 180% of GDP by 2070 [15][55]. Reform Options - Various reform options are considered to stabilize pension deficits, including increasing contribution rates, raising the retirement age, and lowering the replacement rate. A significant increase in contribution rates could offset the upward pressure on public debt [57][59]. - The report highlights that raising the contribution rate by 13.8 percentage points could increase revenue by 7 percentage points of GDP by 2070, effectively countering the anticipated rise in pension spending [59].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The global incidence of social unrest has remained broadly stable over the past year, with significant events concentrated in Europe and sub-Saharan Africa, and to a lesser extent in the Western Hemisphere [2][5]. - The Reported Social Unrest Index (RSUI) is a measure developed to track social unrest events through media reports, covering approximately 130 countries [4][8]. - The frequency of global social unrest events has shown relative stability since mid-2023, contrasting with the increased unrest observed before and after the pandemic [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The paper updates the RSUI, extending the dataset to July 2024, and reviews social unrest episodes over the last 13 months [4]. 2. Background: The Reported Social Unrest Index - The RSUI counts media mentions of unrest-related terms and is characterized by episodic spikes that correlate with major unrest events [9][10]. 3. Social Unrest since June 2023 3.1 Europe - Major unrest events occurred in France, Israel, and the Netherlands, with significant protests in Spain, Belgium, Poland, and Slovakia during this period [11]. 3.2 Sub-Saharan Africa - Notable events included a military coup in Niger, protests in Chad, and unrest in Senegal, Madagascar, and Kenya due to political tensions [13]. 3.3 Western Hemisphere - Ecuador experienced unrest due to political assassinations and gang violence, while Argentina saw large demonstrations related to a reform package [14]. 3.4 Rest of the World - Unrest events were also reported in Papua New Guinea, Pakistan, Georgia, Armenia, and Bangladesh, indicating a broader global trend [15].