TECHNICAL REPORT BRAZIL Report on Government Finance and Public Sector Debt Statistics Mission (August 5–16, 2024) APRIL 2025 Prepared by Ethan Weisman Authoring Department: Statistics Department DISCLAIMER "The contents of this document constitute technical advice provided by the staff of the International Monetary Fund to the authorities of Ministry of Finance (MF), the Central Bank of Brazil (BACEN), and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) (the "CD recipient") in response to their ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The strong capital spending multiplier in Qatar has diminished as the capital stock has increased, indicating a declining marginal impact of capital spending [5][38] - The report supports Qatar's strategy to transition to a private sector-led growth model, emphasizing the importance of human capital development and broader reforms under the Third National Development Strategy [5][10][40] Summary by Sections Introduction - Qatar's state spending has significantly contributed to the development of its LNG production capacity and infrastructure, driving economic growth and diversification [8] - Major infrastructure projects, including those for the 2022 FIFA World Cup, have been pivotal in boosting the non-hydrocarbon sector's growth over the past decade [8] Estimating Fiscal Multipliers: A GCC Panel Approach - The analysis indicates a strong correlation between government spending and non-hydrocarbon output growth in the GCC, with Qatar showing the most significant correlation [20][21] - The fiscal multiplier for capital spending is estimated to be around 0.9 in the long term, while current spending has a lower multiplier effect [25][27] Estimating Fiscal Multiplier: A Single Country Approach (Qatar) - Recent analyses show that the growth effects of capital spending in Qatar have waned as the infrastructure investment cycle matures, particularly following the World Cup-related investments [36] - The estimated long-run fiscal multiplier for Qatar is close to 1.5 when capital stock levels are not considered, but becomes insignificant when capital stock is high [33] Conclusions and Policy Implications - The report suggests reallocating public spending towards education and human capital development to enhance economic growth, while also focusing on climate sustainability and promoting a knowledge-based economy [39][40] - Efficient public spending is crucial for crowding in private sector investment and facilitating economic diversification [40]

Transforming the Future: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence in Korea Korea Soo Jung Chang, Hamin Lee, Sumin Lee, Samil Oh (all from Bank of Korea); Zexi Sun, and Xin Cindy Xu (IMF) SIP/2025/013 IMF Selected Issues Papers are prepared by IMF staff as background documentation for periodic consultations with member countries. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on January 21, 2025. This paper is also published separately as IMF Country Report No 25/042. 2025 MAR © 2025 Inte ...

| --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | JEL Classification Numbers: H32; H40; L50; | L60; L80; O30; O40; O52 | | Keywords: | Total factor productivity; technology; R&D innovation; human capital; Europe | | Author's E-Mail Address: | scevik@imf.org; snaik@imf.org; kprimus@imf.org | The conceptual framework for the analysis presented in this paper is based on the standard model of conditional convergence. T ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the financial sector in Papua New Guinea Core Insights - The financial sector in Papua New Guinea (PNG) is relatively small and bank-dominated, with total financial sector assets around PGK 80 billion, representing 70% of GDP [23] - The Bank of Papua New Guinea (BPNG) has made efforts to strengthen the financial sector stability framework through reforms guided by the Financial Sector Development Strategy 2018-30 [13][33] - Despite progress, significant weaknesses and challenges remain, particularly in systemic risk analysis, regulatory frameworks, and crisis management [14][15] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The BPNG has initiated several reforms to enhance the financial sector stability framework, including macroprudential policy development and modernization of payment systems [13] - Key areas requiring improvement include systemic risk analysis, regulatory frameworks for financial institutions, and crisis preparedness [14][15] Background - The financial sector is dominated by four commercial banks, which account for 67% of total financial system assets, and financial inclusion remains limited, with 75% of the population excluded from formal financial services [23][31] - The BPNG is the main regulatory authority, overseeing banks, nonbank deposit-taking institutions, superannuation funds, and life insurance companies [32] Systemic Risk Analysis - The BPNG has established a Macro-Prudential Supervision Unit responsible for macroprudential risk surveillance and policy advice [37] - Current systemic risk analysis relies heavily on Financial Soundness Indicators (FSIs), but broader macro-financial indicators are often overlooked [45] Recommendations - The report outlines key recommendations for improving the financial sector, including operationalizing a Financial Stability Committee, enhancing regulatory frameworks, and developing a comprehensive prudential regulation for e-money providers [15][18] - Specific recommendations include improving systemic risk reporting, amending the Banks and Financial Institutions Act, and strengthening oversight functions of payment systems [18][19]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The fragmented public debt management legal framework and functions have led to incoherent management of public debt in Sri Lanka, necessitating the establishment of a consolidated Debt Management Office (DMO) and improved debt transparency as a government priority [18][20][24] - The mission recommends a new Public Debt Management (PDM) law to define the DMO's mandate, governance, and accountability framework, which should include annual reporting to Parliament on debt management strategy progress [20][21][66] - The DMO should be located within the Ministry of Finance (MoF) to align with practices in emerging markets, with a focus on developing a Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) and an Annual Borrowing Plan (ABP) [21][22][25] - Recommendations include strengthening the legal framework for loan guarantees and on-lending arrangements to mitigate fiscal risks, and establishing a coordinating committee for better oversight [27][28] Summary by Sections I. Introduction - The objective of the Debt Management Reform Plan is to assist Sri Lankan authorities in improving debt management and transparency, with commitments under the IMF-supported program and World Bank's Development Policy Operation [32][33] II. Macroeconomic Background - Sri Lanka's public debt reached 128% of GDP at the end of 2022, driven by a large fiscal deficit and economic contraction, with gross borrowing needs at 34.6% of GDP [43][44] - The economic outlook remains challenging, with projected contraction in 2023 and gradual recovery expected by 2026 [43] III. Legal Framework - The current legal framework for public debt management is fragmented, lacking a unified law that clearly defines public debt and the roles of various stakeholders [77][80] - The report emphasizes the need for a coherent legal framework to establish guiding principles for public debt management and clarify governance and accountability [59][62] IV. Institutional Framework - The establishment of the DMO within the MoF is recommended, consolidating various debt management functions while ensuring operational independence through an approved MTDS [21][22][25] - The report suggests structuring the DMO along functional lines to enhance efficiency and accountability [27] V. Debt Transparency - The report highlights the need for improved debt data management and unified reporting to enhance transparency and accountability in public debt management [24][66] - Recommendations include developing a new debt recording system and ensuring all debt-related data is included [28] VI. Management Framework for Government Guarantees and On-Lending - The report calls for a legal and operational framework for managing government guarantees and on-lending to mitigate fiscal risks [28][29] - It emphasizes the importance of establishing quantitative risk limits and introducing guarantee fees as risk mitigation instruments [29]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Insights - The UAE's economic growth remains strong, driven by robust domestic activity, with overall GDP growth of 3.6 percent in 2023 and projected growth of 3.7 percent in 2024 [7][9][57] - Non-hydrocarbon growth has been particularly strong, benefiting from healthy tourism flows and increased activity in construction, manufacturing, and financial services [7][9] - Inflation moderated sharply to 1.6 percent in 2023, with expectations of a rise to 2.2 percent in 2024 [7][61] - The banking sector remains resilient, with strengthened balance sheets and continued credit growth despite policy interest rate hikes [8][12][51] Summary by Sections Recent Macroeconomic Developments - Non-hydrocarbon GDP growth reached 6.2 percent in 2023, while hydrocarbon GDP contracted by 3.1 percent due to OPEC+ production cuts [36] - The general government surplus decreased to 5 percent of GDP in 2023, down from 10 percent in 2022, primarily due to lower public company transfers [41] - Capital inflows have strengthened, supporting an increase in central bank foreign reserves by 9.3 percent of GDP in 2023 [42] Outlook and Risks - GDP is projected to grow by 3.7 percent in 2024, with non-hydrocarbon growth expected at 4.9 percent [57] - Hydrocarbon GDP is expected to grow by 0.2 percent in 2024, with significant growth anticipated in 2025 due to increased OPEC+ quotas [58] - The current account surplus is projected to average 7.6 percent of GDP over the medium term, supported by high oil prices and economic diversification efforts [62] Policy Discussions - Policies should focus on sustainable growth and safeguarding financial stability, including enhancing macro-prudential tools and fiscal frameworks [73] - Continued emphasis on structural reforms to harness digitalization and attract investment is crucial for higher productivity and economic growth [25][73] - The development of harmonized medium-term fiscal and sovereign asset-liability management frameworks is essential for fiscal policy efficiency [17]

NOTES STAFF CLIMATE Fintech Applications for Boosting Climate Finance Elena Loukoianova, Fabio Natalucci, David Wang, and Shiho Kanada IMF STAFF CLIMATE NOTES 2024/008 ©2024 International Monetary Fund Fintech Applications for Boosting Climate Finance IMF Staff Climate Notes 2024/008 Elena Loukoianova, Fabio Natalucci, David Wang, and Shiho Kanada* DISCLAIMER: The IMF Staff Notes Series aims to quickly disseminate succinct IMF analysis on critical economic issues to member countries and the broader policy c ...

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND Riding Unicorns: Startups and Venture Capital in Japan Salih Fendoglu and TengTeng Xu WP/24/246 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2024 DEC 9A9 © 2024 International Monetary Fund WP/24/246 IMF Working Paper Asia and Pacific Dep ...

IMF Country Report No. 24/329 KUWAIT SELECTED ISSUES December 2024 This paper on Kuwait was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on November 19, 2024. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 62 ...