Content: --------- <doc id='1'>证券研究报告·金融工程报告 2025 年 12 月 18 日 江海证券研究发展部 金融工程定期报告 金融工程研究组 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动态 2025.12.18 ◆市场表现：2025 年 12 月 17 日, 各宽基指数（表 1）全部上涨，其中创业板指（3.39%） 投资要点：</doc> <doc id='2'>分析师：梁俊炜 执业证书编号：S1410524090001 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 和中证 500（1.95%）涨幅最大。当年涨跌情况，创业板指（48.3%）涨幅最大，其 次是中证 2000（30.48%）和中证 500（24.66%），中证 1000（22.34%）和中证全指 （21.17%）涨幅扩大，而上证 50（11.43%）涨幅最小。 ◆均线比较：除了中证 1000 和中证 2000，其余跟踪指数已突破 5 日及 20 日均线。 创业板指率先突破 60 日均线。各跟踪指数单日修复程度较大。 ◆资金占比与换手：2025 年 12 月 17 日, 沪深 300（25.34%）交易金额占比最高， 相关研究报告</doc> <doc id='3'>态 2025.12.17 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 态 2025.12.16 A 股市场快照：宽基指数每日投资动 态 2025.12.15 其次是中证 2000（23.94%）和中证 1000（20.51%）。各宽基指数当前换手率分别 为中证 2000（3.88），创业板指（2.41），中证 1000（2.24），中证全指（1.63）， 中证 500（1.56），沪深 300（0.54）和上证 50（0.23）。 ◆日收益率分布：创业板指的峰度负偏离最大，中证 1000 的峰度负偏离最小。上 证 50 和创业板指的负偏态最大，中证 1000 和中证 2000 的负偏态最小。 ◆风险溢价：2025 年 12 月 17 日, 创业板指（97.14%）和中证 500（96.59%）风险 溢价近 5 年分位值较高，中证 1000（88.41%）和中证 2000（69.05%）较低。</doc> <doc id='4'>◆PE-TTM：中证 500（95.04%）和中证 1000（93.47%）分位值较高，而中证 2000 （79.17%）和创业板指（57.69%）分位值较低。 ◆股债性价比：没有指数高于其 80%分位，中证 500 低于其 20%分位。 ◆股息率：创业板指（63.22%）和中证 1000（51.65%）所处近 5 年历史分位值较 高，而中证 2000（31.32%）和中证 500（24.55%）较低。 ◆破净率：当前，各指数破净率为上证 50（22.0%），沪深 300（16.33%），中证 500（11.2%），中证 1000（8.3%），中证 2000（3.8%），创业板指（nan%）和中 证全指（6.51%）。 ◆风险提示：本报告可能存在数据缺失、数据错误、数据不及时、模型处理错误 等风险。本报告仅从金融工程角度，对重要指数的市场数据进行跟踪、统计、分 析，不构成对市场指数、行业或个股进行预测或推荐。</doc> <doc id='6'>| 市场衣乳… | | --- | | 1.1 指数表现 … | | 1.2 指数与均线的比较 | | 1.3 资全占比与换手率 … | | 2 日收益分布 | | 2.1 收益区间分布对比 | | 22 分布形态变化对比 | | 3 风险溢价 … | | 3.1 各宽基指数的风险溢价 | | 32 风险溢价历史分布 | | 4 PE-TTM. | | 4.1 各宽某指数 PE-TTM 和分位值 | | 4.2 PE-TTM 历史对比… | | 4.3 股债性价比历史对比… | | 5 吸血率… | | 5.1 近一年各宽某指数股息率变化情况, | | 5.2 股息率历史对比… | | 6 玻璃率 | | 7 风险提示 . |</doc> <doc id='8'>| 表 1、各宽基指数表现情况 | | --- | | 表 2、各宽基指数与均线、近250交易日高位和低位的比较 … | | 表 3 、各宽基指数分布形态变化 … | | 表 4、各宽基指数和十年期国债即期收益率的风险溢价 | | 表 5、各宽基指数 PE-TTM 分位值和历史值 | | 表 6、各宽基指数当前股息率和历史情况 | | 图 1、各宽基指数交易全额占比和换手率 | | 图 2、各宽基指数每日收益率分布情况 | | 图 3、各宽基指数相对十年国债即期收益率的风险溢价 | | 图 4、各宽基指数相对沪深 300 的风险溢价的近 5年分布 . | | 图 5 、各宽基指数 PE-TTM 及其分位值 | | 图 6、各宽基指数的股债性价比… | | 图 7、各宽基指数股息率 | | 图 8、各宽基指数破净个股数和占比………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 10 |</doc> <doc id='10'>1 市场表现 本报告将从指数涨跌幅、连阴连阳、上涨下跌分布等维度对各宽基指数进 行评价和跟踪。 1.1 指数表现 </doc> <doc id='11'>2025 年 12 月 17 日, 各宽基指数（表 1）全部上涨，其中创业板指（3.39%） 和中证 500（1.95%）涨幅最大。当周涨跌情况，各跟踪指数全部下跌，其中 中证 2000（-1.22%）和中证 1000（-1.12%）跌幅最大。当月涨跌情况，各跟踪 指数涨跌各现，其中创业板指（4.04%）和中证 500（1.51%）涨幅最大，而中 证 2000（-0.89%）和中证 1000（-0.62%）下跌。当季涨跌情况，各跟踪指数除 了上证 50（0.09%）外全部下跌，其中中证 1000（-3.78%）和中证 500（-3.7%） 跌幅最大。当年涨跌情况，创业板指（48.3%）涨幅最大，其次是中证 2000（30.48%） 和中证 500（24.66%），中证 1000（22.34%）和中证全指（21.17%）涨幅扩大， 而上证 50（11.43%）涨幅最小。 表 1、各宽基指数表现情况 指数名称 指数代码 当日涨幅% 当周涨幅% 当月涨幅% 当季涨幅% 当年涨幅% 日K </doc> <doc id='12'>| 指数名称 | 指数代码 | 当日涨幅% | 当周涨幅% | 当月涨幅% | 当季涨幅% | 当年涨幅% | 日K 连阴连阳 | 周K 连阴连阳 | 月K 连阴连阳 | 季K 连阴连阳 | 年K 连阴连阳 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证50 | 000016.SH | 1.25 | -0.10 | 0.74 | 0.09 | 11.43 | | | |

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly returns, as well as their relative positions to moving averages and historical highs and lows[1][10][14] - The analysis includes metrics such as trading turnover rates, with indices like CSI 2000 (3.93) and CSI 1000 (2.34) showing the highest turnover rates among the broad-based indices on December 16, 2025[17] - The report evaluates the distribution of daily returns for indices, highlighting characteristics such as kurtosis and skewness. For instance, the ChiNext Index exhibits the largest negative kurtosis deviation, while CSI 1000 shows the smallest negative kurtosis deviation. Similarly, the ChiNext Index has the largest negative skewness, and CSI 1000 has the smallest[23][25] - Risk premium analysis is conducted using the 10-year government bond yield as a risk-free rate benchmark. Indices like SSE 50 (12.22%) and CSI 2000 (10.56%) have relatively high 5-year percentile values, while ChiNext Index (8.25%) and CSI 500 (8.17%) are lower[27][31] - The report also examines valuation metrics such as PE-TTM. CSI 500 (93.88%) and CSI 1000 (93.14%) have the highest 5-year percentile values, while CSI 2000 (78.51%) and ChiNext Index (55.12%) are relatively lower[39][43] - Dividend yield analysis reveals that ChiNext Index (67.44%) and CSI 1000 (55.04%) are at higher 5-year historical percentiles, whereas SSE 50 (32.23%) and CSI 500 (28.1%) are at lower percentiles[51][53] - The report tracks the percentage of stocks trading below their book value (PB ratio < 1). As of the report date, the PB ratio percentages are as follows: SSE 50 (24.0%), CSI 300 (16.67%), CSI 500 (11.2%), CSI 1000 (8.3%), CSI 2000 (3.95%), and CSI All Share (6.61%)[57]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the retail sector's performance has been impacted by the high base effect from previous government subsidies and the pre-promotion of the Double Eleven shopping festival, leading to a slowdown in growth rates. However, the resilience of the lower-tier markets, as well as stable growth in dining and service consumption, is noted as a positive sign for future consumption recovery [6][4]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - In the past twelve months, the industry has shown a relative return of -20.45% compared to the CSI 300 index, with absolute returns of -4.72% [2]. - The retail sales data for November 2025 indicates a total of 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales reached 39,444 billion yuan, growing by 2.5% [4]. Key Investment Points - Dining consumption remains stable, with November dining revenue at 6,057 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. However, there is a slight month-on-month decline [6]. - The report identifies that online retail channels are growing faster than the overall market, with online retail sales from January to November 2025 reaching 144,582 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [6]. - Investment suggestions include focusing on service consumption companies like Huazhu Group and Jin Jiang Hotels, as well as companies in the dining supply chain such as Anjuke Food and Qianwei Central Kitchen [6].

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their daily price movements, moving averages, turnover rates, and risk premiums[1][2][3] - The turnover rate for each index is calculated using the formula: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Circulating Shares of Component Stocks} \times \text{Turnover Rate of Component Stocks})}{\Sigma(\text{Circulating Shares of Component Stocks})} $ This provides insights into the liquidity and trading activity of the indices[17] - The risk premium is measured relative to the 10-year government bond yield, serving as a benchmark for risk-free rates. This metric evaluates the relative investment value and deviation of each index. For instance, the current risk premium for the CSI 500 is -0.79%, with a 5-year historical percentile of 21.98%[27][31] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) ratio is used as a valuation reference. For example, the CSI 500 has a current PE-TTM value of 32.45, with a 5-year historical percentile of 94.96%, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to its historical range[39][43] - Dividend yield is analyzed as a measure of cash return. For instance, the CSI 500 has a current dividend yield of 1.45%, with a 5-year historical percentile of 24.96%, reflecting its position in the historical distribution of dividend yields[48][53] - The report also examines the net asset value (NAV) break rate, which represents the proportion of stocks trading below their book value. For example, the CSI 500 has a current NAV break rate of 11.0%, suggesting market sentiment and valuation levels[54][57]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and net asset ratios[1][3][4] - The analysis includes a detailed comparison of indices' daily returns, showing that indices like the CSI 500 and ChiNext Index had the highest daily gains on December 12, 2025, at 1.23% and 0.97%, respectively[11][14] - Moving average analysis reveals that the CSI 500 and ChiNext Index broke above their 5-day moving averages, while all indices surpassed their 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The SSE 50 and CSI 2000 also broke above their 60-day moving averages[14] - Turnover rate analysis indicates that the CSI 2000 had the highest turnover rate at 4.1%, followed by the ChiNext Index at 2.66% and the CSI 1000 at 2.5%[16] - Risk premium analysis, using the 10-year government bond yield as the risk-free rate, shows that the CSI 500 and SSE 50 had the highest 5-year percentile values at 86.75% and 76.83%, respectively, while the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 had lower values at 74.13% and 65.16%[26][30] - PE-TTM analysis highlights that the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 had the highest 5-year percentile values at 96.61% and 95.45%, respectively, indicating relatively high valuations. In contrast, the ChiNext Index had a lower 5-year percentile value of 57.77%[41][42] - Dividend yield analysis shows that the ChiNext Index and CSI 1000 had relatively high 5-year percentile values at 66.61% and 47.19%, respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 had lower values at 15.7% and 12.56%[51][53] - Net asset ratio analysis reveals that the SSE 50 had the highest proportion of stocks trading below their net asset value at 24.0%, while the ChiNext Index had the lowest at 1.0%[55]

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including their daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, and valuation metrics such as PE-TTM and dividend yield[2][3][14] - The turnover rate of the indices is calculated as the weighted average of the turnover rates of their constituent stocks, weighted by the free-float market capitalization of each stock[16] - The risk premium of the indices is measured relative to the yield of 10-year government bonds, serving as a reference for risk-free rates. This metric evaluates the relative investment value and deviation of the indices[26][27][29] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) is used as a valuation reference to assess the investment value of the indices at the current point in time. The report highlights that the PE-TTM percentiles of indices like CSI 1000 (95.7%) and CSI 500 (94.88%) are relatively high, while those of CSI 300 (80.91%) and ChiNext (57.27%) are lower[36][39][40] - Dividend yield is analyzed as a measure of cash return, particularly relevant during market downturns. The report notes that ChiNext (67.6%) and CSI 1000 (49.59%) have relatively high 5-year historical percentiles, while CSI 500 (15.95%) and CSI 2000 (14.79%) are lower[45][49][51] - The report also tracks the percentage of stocks trading below their book value (PB ratio < 1), referred to as the "break-net ratio." This metric reflects market valuation attitudes, with lower ratios potentially indicating optimism about future growth. Current break-net ratios are reported as 20.0% for SSE 50, 15.67% for CSI 300, 11.8% for CSI 500, 8.2% for CSI 1000, 3.4% for CSI 2000, 1.0% for ChiNext, and 6.37% for CSI All Share[50][53]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., a national-level operation platform for polysilicon capacity integration and strategic storage, is expected to fundamentally change the competitive landscape of the polysilicon industry [6] - The main mission of this platform is to adjust and stabilize industry capacity and products through market-oriented methods, with mainstream polysilicon prices expected to stabilize above 60,000 RMB per ton [6] - Major photovoltaic companies are optimistic about profitability in 2026, as indicated by Longi Green Energy's employee stock ownership plan [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of -9.36% over one month, 6.86% over three months, and 0.92% over twelve months, with absolute returns of -11.56%, 10.16%, and 15.84% respectively [3] Market Dynamics - The polysilicon market is entering a new phase characterized by "market-oriented operations + industry collaborative regulation" [6] - In November, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 114,900 tons, a significant decrease of 15.9% month-on-month, with expectations for December production to remain below 120,000 tons [6] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks to focus on include Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, TCL Zhonghuan, and Shuangliang Eco-Energy for supply-demand improvement [6] - For new technology routes in BC batteries, recommended stocks include Longi Green Energy, Aiko Solar, Dier Laser, Juhua Materials, and Boqian New Materials [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The release of the first version of the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory marks a significant reform in China's pharmaceutical payment system, providing a clear commercial outlook for high-value innovative drugs [5][8] - The directory includes 19 drugs, focusing on key areas such as oncology, rare diseases, and Alzheimer's disease, which will enhance the accessibility and market penetration of these products [5][8] - The policy direction clearly supports "true innovation," with a low selection rate of approximately 15.7%, highlighting the recognition of differentiated innovative products with significant clinical advantages [8] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The industry has shown relative returns of -1.43% over the past month, -11.86% over the past three months, and -7.77% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Key Events - The release of the dual directories on December 7, 2025, by the National Healthcare Security Administration and the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security is a pivotal moment for the pharmaceutical industry [5][8] Investment Highlights - The breakthrough in payment bottlenecks directly benefits high-value innovative drugs, such as CAR-T therapies, by significantly reducing patient out-of-pocket expenses through commercial insurance reimbursement [8] - The opening of the payment side not only benefits pharmaceutical companies but also stimulates product innovation demand in commercial health insurance and drives research and production service needs in cutting-edge fields like cell and gene therapy [8] - Recommended companies include those with significant products included in the new national medical insurance directory or the commercial health insurance innovative drug directory, as well as leading biotech firms in the CAR-T field [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing significance of domestic AI chips in the electronics industry, with various companies launching innovative products such as AI glasses and mobile assistants [4][6] - The report emphasizes the rapid growth and adoption of AI edge devices, suggesting a focus on related companies like Alibaba, Xiaomi, Hengxuan Technology, and others [6] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The industry has shown relative returns of 0.82% over the past month, 10.46% over three months, and 30.55% over the past year compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Key Events - Alibaba launched the Quark AI glasses on November 27, 2025, featuring advanced technology and integration with various Alibaba services [5] - ByteDance introduced the Doubao mobile assistant on December 1, 2025, which can perform complex tasks like a human [5] - Huawei released the AI toy "Hanhai" on November 28, 2025, designed for emotional companionship [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the growth of AI edge devices and related companies, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]