证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 1 月 29 日 江海证券研究发展部 执业证书编号：S1410524040001 机械军工行业研究组 分析师：张诗瑶 2025 年规模以上工业企业利润实现增 长，持续关注机床产业链 事件： 行业评级：增持（维持） 1 月 27 日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 73982.0 亿元，比上年增长 0.6%，扭转了连续三年下降态势；其中装备制造业（同 比+7.7%）、高技术制造业（同比+13.3%）等新动能支撑作用明显。 投资要点： 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 12.81 21.02 45.23 绝对收益 14.11 21.57 68.83 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-通用设备：机 床行业持续回暖，国产替代稳步推进 – 2025.06.09 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-通用设备：工 业母机相关数据持续向好，2025 年行业景 气度有望进一步提升 – 2025.02.10 江海证券有限公司及其关联机构在法律许可的情况下可能与本报告所分析的企业存在业务关系 ...

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and net asset ratios[1][3][4] - The turnover rate of major indices on January 28, 2026, was highlighted, with CSI 2000 having the highest turnover rate of 4.45%, followed by the ChiNext Index at 4.21%, and CSI 1000 at 3.52%[4][19] - The daily return distribution of indices was analyzed, showing that the ChiNext Index had the largest negative skewness and kurtosis, while CSI 500 had the smallest negative skewness and kurtosis[25][26] - Risk premiums were calculated using the 10-year government bond yield as the risk-free rate, with CSI 500 (71.03%) and SSE 50 (63.89%) having relatively high 5-year percentile values, while ChiNext Index (35.48%) and CSI 2000 (25.71%) were relatively low[28][29][32] - The PE-TTM ratios and their historical percentiles were analyzed, showing that CSI 500 (100.0%) and CSI 1000 (99.92%) had the highest 5-year percentile values, while SSE 50 (82.64%) and ChiNext Index (63.31%) were lower[43][44] - Dividend yields were tracked, with SSE 50 (3.23%) and CSI 300 (2.71%) having relatively high current values, while CSI 2000 (0.70%) and CSI 500 (1.20%) were lower[54][56] - The net asset ratio (percentage of stocks trading below their book value) was analyzed, with SSE 50 having the highest ratio at 24.0%, followed by CSI 300 at 16.67%, and CSI 500 at 10.4%[58]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The strategic positioning of "service consumption" has been enhanced, expected to become a core engine for driving domestic demand. The State Council's meeting on January 16 emphasized the implementation of consumption-boosting actions and the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, providing a clear direction for consumption development in 2026 and the 14th Five-Year Plan [6] - During the Spring Festival travel season (February 2 - February 14, 2026), domestic flight ticket bookings exceeded 7.54 million, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The total expected passenger transport volume for civil aviation during the Spring Festival is projected to reach a historical high of 95 million, with a daily average of 2.38 million passengers, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [6] - The recovery of dining consumption in Q4 2025 was significantly stronger than that of retail goods, indicating a resurgence in service consumption. From October to December 2025, the year-on-year growth rates for dining revenue were 3.8%, 3.2%, and 2.2%, respectively, while retail goods growth rates were 2.8%, 1.0%, and 0.7% [6] Summary by Sections - **Recent Industry Performance**: Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown relative returns of 5.35% over one month, 7.38% over three months, and a decline of 3.0% over twelve months. Absolute returns were 6.42%, 8.38%, and 19.81% respectively [4] - **Policy Support**: The government has introduced policies to encourage service consumption, including optimizing school holiday arrangements to promote student well-being, which is expected to boost service consumption growth [6] - **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests focusing on listed companies in the dining, hotel, and tourism sectors, including China Duty Free Group, Shouhang Hotel, Jinjiang Hotels, and others, as they are likely to benefit from the positive trends in service consumption [6]

- The report tracks and analyzes the market data of major indices, including their daily performance, moving averages, trading volume, and turnover rates[2][3][4] - The report evaluates the distribution of daily returns for various indices, highlighting the kurtosis and skewness of these distributions[25][26] - The report assesses the risk premium of different indices relative to the 10-year government bond yield, providing insights into their relative investment value and deviation[28][29][30] - The report examines the PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings ratio based on trailing twelve months) of various indices, considering their historical percentiles and current values to gauge investment attractiveness[40][43][44] - The report analyzes the stock-bond yield ratio, comparing the inverse of the PE-TTM with the 10-year government bond yield to determine the relative attractiveness of stocks versus bonds[47] - The report tracks the dividend yield of different indices, noting their historical percentiles and current values to assess the attractiveness of dividend-paying stocks[48][49][54] - The report monitors the percentage of stocks trading below their book value (PB ratio < 1) within each index, indicating market valuation attitudes and potential undervaluation[55][58][60]

执业证书编号：S1410525120001 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -5.35 -6.9 -27.32 绝对收益 -4.06 -6.0 -4.63 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-食品饮料：鸣 鸣很忙即将上市，关注零食量贩行业 – 2026.01.20 证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 1 月 27 日 江海证券研究发展部 行业评级：增持（维持） 近日金星啤酒向港交所递交招股说明书，公司 2023 年-2025 年三季度业绩实现 高速增长，2023 年-2025 年三季度公司营业收入分别为 3.56/7.30/11.10 亿元， 2024 年和 2025 年三季度营业收入增速分别为 104.87%和 191.16%。公司 2023 年-2025 年三季度实现归母净利润 0.12/1.25/3.05 亿元，2024 年-2025 年三季 度归母净利润增速分别为 928.00%和 1095.84%。 据国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 1-12 月，中国累计啤酒产量 3536.0 万千升， 同比下降 1.1%。其中， ...

- The report tracks and analyzes the market data of major indices, including their performance, moving averages, turnover rates, and risk premiums[1][2][3] - The indices' daily performance is evaluated, with the CSI 500 showing the highest annual increase of 13.95%, followed by the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000[10] - The comparison of indices with their moving averages and the highest and lowest points over the past 250 trading days is provided, showing significant pullbacks after reaching new highs[12][13] - The turnover rates of various indices are analyzed, with the CSI 2000 having the highest turnover rate of 5.34%[16] - The distribution of daily returns is examined, with the ChiNext Index showing the largest negative skewness and the CSI 500 the smallest[22][23] - The risk premiums of the indices relative to the 10-year government bond yield are calculated, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 having the highest 5-year percentile values[25][26][29] - The PE-TTM ratios of the indices are analyzed, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 having the highest 5-year percentile values of 99.92%[37][40][41] - The dividend yields of the indices are tracked, with the ChiNext Index and CSI 300 having the highest 5-year historical percentile values[45][51][53] - The percentage of stocks trading below their net asset value is analyzed, with the Shanghai 50 having the highest percentage of 24.0%[52][55]

近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.47 -0.55 31.63 绝对收益 0.01 0.35 54.32 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 注：2026 年 1 月 23 日数据 证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 1 月 26 日 江海证券研究发展部 执业证书编号：S1410525090001 1. 江海证券-行业点评报告-电池行业：上 汽推出 10 万级半固态电池车型，固态电池 核心设备实现交付 – 2025.07.22 2. 江海证券-行业点评报告-电池行业： QuantumScape 固态电池获里程碑式进 展，关注氧化物电解质方向投资机会 – 2025.06.27 3. 江海证券-行业点评报告-电池行业：固 态电池设备端近期催化不断，建议关注产 业链投资机会 – 2025.06.19 4. 江海证券-行业点评报告-电池行业：阿 里资本开支大超预期，数据中心投资机会 电新汽车行业研究组 分析师：王金帅 受益传统电池扩产和固态电池技术迭 代，锂电设备公司业绩有望复苏 事件： 行业评级：增持（维持） 1 月 25 日，先导智能发布 2025 年度业 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 1 月 26 日 江海证券研究发展部 执业证书编号：S1410525090001 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 25.83 23.59 59.62 绝对收益 27.31 24.49 82.31 数据来源：聚源 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 电新汽车行业研究组 分析师：王金帅 德力佳扩产 10MW 风电齿轮箱，关注 风机大型化带来的投资机会 事件： 行业评级：增持（维持） 德力佳 1 月 25 日公告，公司与无锡宛山湖产业发展有限公司、羊尖镇人民政府 达成合作并签署了《德力佳 10MW 以上风电用变速箱研发制造项目投资合作协 议》，推进公司风电齿轮箱产能扩充，项目总投资 50 亿元。该项目的实施将有 效提升公司的生产规模和交付能力，进一步巩固和增强公司在风电齿轮箱领域 的市场竞争力和行业地位。 投资评级说明 | 投资建议的评级标准 | | 评级 | 说明 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 买入 增持 | 相对同期基准指数涨幅在 15%以上 相对同期基准指数涨幅在 | | 评级标准为发布报告日后的 ...

- The report primarily focuses on the performance and analysis of the convertible bond market, including market trends, individual bond performance, valuation analysis, and clause tracking, but does not include any quantitative models or factors for construction or testing[1][3][8] - The convertible bond market's weekly performance (2026-01-19 to 2026-01-23) is highlighted, with indices such as the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index, and CSI Convertible Bond Index showing weekly returns of 2.790%, 3.175%, and 2.921%, respectively[3][8][11] - The report provides detailed data on trading volume and value for convertible bonds and their corresponding stocks, showing a week-over-week decline in activity, with convertible bond trading volume at 241,961.36 million units and trading value at 46,654,679.30 million yuan[3][8][11] - Individual convertible bond performance is analyzed, with the top five gainers being Jiamei Convertible Bond (48.11%), Fuxin Convertible Bond (30.99%), Tianchuang Convertible Bond (29.26%), Dazhong Convertible Bond (24.16%), and Shuangliang Convertible Bond (22.40%)[20][21] - The report also lists the top five decliners, including Huiche Convertible Bond (-32.91%), Dongshi Convertible Bond (-17.81%), Yinbang Convertible Bond (-7.14%), Huanxu Convertible Bond (-6.45%), and Haohan Convertible Bond (-5.71%)[20][22] - Valuation analysis includes the distribution of convertible bond prices, with 213 bonds priced above 140 yuan, representing 56.50% of the market, and the median conversion premium rate for this category at 26.73%[11][34][39] - Clause tracking reveals that 107 convertible bonds have triggered downward revision clauses, and seven bonds are likely to trigger conditional redemption clauses, including Fuchun Convertible Bond, Jiahe Convertible Bond, Xingfa Convertible Bond, Yongxi Convertible Bond, Yinbang Convertible Bond, Weixin Convertible Bond, and Yaoji Convertible Bond[41]

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and price-to-book ratios[1][3][4] - The turnover rates of various indices on January 23, 2026, were as follows: CSI 2000 (4.97%), ChiNext Index (4.05%), CSI 1000 (3.96%), CSI 500 (2.86%), CSI All Share (2.46%), CSI 300 (0.96%), and SSE 50 (0.41%)[4][20] - The risk premium of indices relative to the 10-year government bond yield was observed, with CSI 500 (2.41%) and CSI 1000 (1.93%) showing higher premiums, while SSE 50 (-0.69%) and CSI 300 (-0.46%) had lower premiums. The 5-year percentile rankings for risk premiums were highest for CSI 500 (98.10%) and CSI 1000 (94.21%)[28][32][35] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) values and their historical percentiles were analyzed. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 had the highest PE-TTM percentiles (100.0% for both), while SSE 50 had a lower percentile (80.33%). The current PE-TTM values were: SSE 50 (11.49), CSI 300 (14.09), CSI 500 (39.02), CSI 1000 (51.94), CSI 2000 (174.36), CSI All Share (22.63), and ChiNext Index (43.64)[43][44] - Dividend yields were tracked, with SSE 50 (3.31%) and CSI 300 (2.76%) having relatively higher yields, while CSI 500 (1.20%) and CSI 2000 (0.68%) had lower yields. The 5-year historical percentiles for dividend yields were highest for ChiNext Index (57.11%) and CSI 300 (38.18%)[54][56] - The price-to-book ratio (P/B) was analyzed through the "break net ratio," which measures the proportion of stocks trading below their book value. Current break net ratios were: SSE 50 (24.0%), CSI 300 (16.33%), CSI 500 (10.0%), CSI 1000 (6.8%), CSI 2000 (2.2%), and CSI All Share (5.22%)[58]