大家好欢迎收看谈论解盘我是光大证券投资顾问李轩大家可以叫我李师兄每个交易日下午四点钟我们都会在直播间里陪着大家一起覆盘市场热点寻找比较靠谱的交易机会今天市场整体是走的比较弱势的啊已经有段时间没有出现这么明显的跌幅啊户址的跌幅是超过1.6%的 创业反者跌幅呢也是达到了3%以上这在近一段时间呢这样的跌幅呢也是创了近一段时间比较大这样一个幅度啊另外呢从两市的成交额来看的话最近的成交额基本上是稳定在6500亿6600亿这样一个水平啊 说实话这个水平在近段时间也许还算可以但是整体来看的话仍然是维持较低的水平在这样一个相对比较低的成交额的背景之下我们之前一再给大家介绍过无论是涨是跌整体市场确实是很难形成相对比较明显的趋势性的行情所以尽管市场今天出现了非常明显的跌幅我们还是要提醒大家 这样的政府呢有可能会不是一个持续的这样一个行情啊所以大家还是可以不用那么悲观另外呢从行情的技术面角度来看的话当前啊就是我们一再给大家强调的市场进入到了长期和中期这样一个征收震荡的阶段在这样一个征收震荡阶段呢最忌讳的就是追涨闪跌往往市场大家可能会觉得似乎还要再涨的时候 他就开始回荡然后就回到征收震荡的这样一个核心的区间里头那当大家觉得市场似乎已 ...

荣誉通的各位领导大家下午好我是刘春明目前是在东北证券担任固定收益首席分析师这么一个职务今天也非常高兴和各位领导介绍一下我们债券市场中期的一个策略报告我们这个策略报告的题目叫做做多思路不改防范短期波动整体来讲对于后面债券市场的一个行情还是一个 相对偏乐观这样的一个态度吧那整体呢我们觉得这个债券牛市的这个行情呢仍然应该来说还是仍然可以继续延续但是呢在三季度可能会出现一些这种短期对债券市场形成一定扰动的这样的一些因素那所以说呢可能针对这样一些因素呢我们仍然是需要去抱有一个这个防范短期波动的这么一个整体心态 那首先呢先介绍一下这个2024年上半年债券市场的一些这个核心的行情那我们的总结出来这个2024年上半年债券市场存在着三个关键词共振博弈和下探那首先呢是这个共振的这样的一个整体的思路 那在两会召开之前呢债券市场其实是几乎不存在这个非常明显的利空因素的那在这个利多共振之下呢债券市场也是走出了一个快牛的行情那一方面呢这个利率债期限利差呢表现也出现明显的分化另外一方面呢信用利差其实也在明显的压缩像两会召开之前其实我们可以看到像这个基本面整体也处在这个一个 修复力度不足的这么一个状态然后呢货币政策可能也是整体维持宽松然后整 ...

军工及低空经济投资机会展望 20240723 摘要 . 军工行业正处于底部阶段,未来将迎来明确的拐点,投资机会主要集中在新装备的放量,ghving87. 和军转民的长期空间,新装备主要包括予板份计板,精致制品或要进手位重点原标题的, 和军转民的长期空间。新装备方面包括飞机发动机、精确制导武器以及信息化智能化装 备等方向,军转民方面则包括低空经济、C919 国产大飞机和低轨卫星或卫星军联网。 军工行业需求刚性源于国家意志牵引,尤其是在大国崛起过程中。外部局势变化进一步 强化了国防建设的必要性。同时,军工行业具有规划计划属性,每个五年规划都已做好 且从未调整过,这使得整个行业呈现出前高后低的发展特点。 新裝备建设中值得关注的领域包括航空装备和精确制导武器。航空装备方面,新型战斗 机如四代主战中型飞机、远程战略爱炸机等具备广阔应用场景,并有望在未来实现较大 的市场空间。此外,无人化作战模式下,无人机与有人机协同作战也将成为重要趋势。 精确制导武器方面, 高超音速导弹等高精尖武器以及远程火箭弹等低成本化武器均具有 较好的投资前景。 影響力:shu inv9航空发动机被誉为工业皇冠上的明珠,其技术壁垒和门槛极高。我们测 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the macroeconomic policies and reforms in China, particularly focusing on the outcomes of the 20th Central Committee's Third Plenary Session. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Economic System Reform as Core Driver**: The document emphasizes that economic system reform is the core driver for other areas of reform, aiming for a high-level socialist market economy by 2035 [1][2][3]. 2. **High-Quality Development Path**: High-quality development is centered on new productivity, driven by technological revolutions that enhance industrial transformation and supply chain resilience [4][5]. 3. **Unified National Market**: The establishment of a unified national market is highlighted, focusing on fair competition, unified market rules, and improved infrastructure connectivity [4][6]. 4. **Property Rights Protection**: Strengthening property rights protection is deemed essential for building a high-level socialist market economy, with measures to ensure equal legal protection for all market entities [7][8]. 5. **Innovation-Driven Development**: The document stresses the importance of innovation in driving development, particularly through advancements in key technologies and modern engineering [4][8]. 6. **Education and Talent Development**: A comprehensive system for education, technology, and talent development is proposed to support innovation and productivity [9][10]. 7. **Financial System Reforms**: New directions for the financial system include promoting green finance, technology finance, and inclusive finance, alongside improving regulatory frameworks for listed companies [12][19]. 8. **Urban-Rural Integration**: The need for urban-rural integration is emphasized, with strategies to enhance public services and support rural development [23][29]. 9. **High-Level Opening-Up Mechanism**: The call for a high-level opening-up mechanism includes aligning with international standards and enhancing foreign investment protections [5][13]. 10. **Addressing Internal and External Risks**: The document outlines strategies to balance development and security, addressing both internal economic challenges and external geopolitical pressures [20][27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Macro Governance**: The document discusses the need for improved macroeconomic governance, particularly in balancing central and local fiscal responsibilities [30][31]. 2. **Consumer Confidence and Demand**: Strategies to boost consumer confidence and demand are highlighted, including fiscal policies aimed at increasing local government spending [32][34]. 3. **Long-Term Strategic Planning**: The emphasis on long-term strategic planning reflects the need to adapt to changing domestic and international environments, ensuring sustainable economic growth [20][35]. 4. **Role of Technology in Economic Development**: The integration of technology in traditional industries is seen as crucial for enhancing productivity and competitiveness [19][27]. 5. **Public Sentiment and Reform Acceptance**: The document notes the importance of public sentiment in the acceptance of reforms, suggesting that reforms should directly benefit the populace to enhance social stability [28][32]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the discussions surrounding China's economic reforms and strategic directions.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The overall market performance is weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index down over 1.6% and the ChiNext Index down over 3% [1][2] - The market is currently in a long-term and mid-term oscillation phase, making it difficult to establish a clear trend [2][12] - The banking sector is underperforming due to the central bank's reduction of the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in July, which negatively impacts banks but benefits brokerage stocks [3][4] Key Insights and Arguments - **Banking Sector Performance**: The banking sector's weakness is attributed to a 10 basis point reduction in both the 1-year and 5-year LPR, which is beneficial for mortgage borrowers but poses challenges for banks [3][4] - **Brokerage Stocks**: Despite the banking sector's decline, brokerage stocks have shown strength due to lower interest rates easing funding costs, leading to a positive performance for capital-intensive businesses [4] - **Emerging Technologies**: New technological advancements and policy support are significantly impacting sectors such as humanoid robots and autonomous driving, which are nearing commercialization [5][15] - **Shanghai's Financial Culture**: Shanghai's deep financial culture and investment atmosphere have made it a key region for the development of the financial industry, particularly in equity markets [6] Additional Important Content - **Public Fund Performance**: The second quarter reports of public funds show some funds performing well, with notable insights from star fund managers. The bond market has benefited from declining interest rates, positively impacting bond-oriented funds [9] - **Northbound Capital Flows**: Recent trends indicate that northbound capital has not sustained inflows, with only one instance of consecutive inflows. Continuous net selling could signal a turbulent period for A-shares [10] - **White Wine Industry Risks**: The white wine industry faces risks from price volatility and is entering the mid-year reporting season, with some companies under pressure while others forecast strong performance [8] - **Healthcare Sector Developments**: Significant progress in healthcare information technology and pharmaceutical reforms has been noted, particularly with the introduction of DRG and DIP payment models, which enhance payment efficiency [13] Future Outlook - **Humanoid Robots**: The humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market size of approximately 30 billion yuan in 2024, potentially reaching 750 billion yuan by 2029 [18] - **Autonomous Taxi Development**: The autonomous taxi sector is gaining traction, with significant demand expected from both operational expansions and technological advancements [15][18] - **5G and Cloud Computing**: As of mid-2023, China has established 3.917 million 5G base stations, with the cloud computing market projected to exceed 2.1 trillion yuan by 2027 [16] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments across various sectors as discussed in the conference call records, highlighting both current challenges and future opportunities.

大家好欢迎参加好产业经济B6奖特朗普战略性防守不能加速中国全球化和国产替代目前所有参会者已经处于静音状态下面开始布包明德声明声明布包完毕后 本次会议仅面向华复证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或观点不构成投资建议根据监管规定会议不得交流敏感内幕信息未经华复证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音制作纪要转发转载传播复制编辑修改等涉嫌违反上述情形等我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持谢谢 各位同事早上好 您好跟大家讲一下我们最近的一些想法因为其实确实之前我们没有考虑到特朗普的这个问题然后可能上个礼拜他表现的可能整个全球大力资产都有一些表现跟我们之前想的不太一样因为我们之前就认为整个美国减次利率下行 可能会比较流畅 再加上特朗普因素的影响在这个过程中全球经济恢复的比较快全球制造业也维持向上的一个状态加速向上的一个状态但是可能我觉得特朗普的一些事件出来以后可能他对市场的预期发生的一些变化可能也提醒我了一些可能未来会潜在发生的变化的可能 因为确实现在不确定会表达我们整体对特朗普这个他的执政方略就是做了一个思考我觉得他整体是一个相比拜登时代更偏向于防守的一个精英政策其实整个拜登 ...

Richard Koo 17 July 2024 Economy continues along path of 2023, but political situation enters new phase With the June US jobs report confirming that labor market conditions are not as overheated as previously thought and the CPI print suggesting that inflation is cooling, the dollar and the 10-year UST yield declined, and US and Japanese stock prices hit new all-time highs. Nevertheless, I suspect the Fed has taken a more cautious stance on rate cuts to avoid being criticized for easing prematurely—after al ...

尊敬的各位投资者大家好我是国经军工的首席分析师杨晨今天主要向大家分享汇报军工和低空两个领域的投资观点 那首先是军工行业那么我们对于整个军工行业下半年到明年明后两年的整个投资观点的话是比较乐观的那么我们觉得整个军工行业的话现在目前正处于这个底部阶段往后看的话呢将迎来行业的一个明确的一个拐点往后的话投资机会主要聚焦在新装备包括新的这个作战模式签以下的这个新装备放量的一些结构性投资机会那么长期看的话呢军转民的这个视角投资机会也是比较多的 那么我们先来看整个军工板块我们的这个这个投资展望那么我们归于两句话紧抓结构性机会那主要聚焦于新装备新型号和军转名的长期空间那么我们说这个 整个金融行业呢 他的需求是刚性 同时的话呢 结合前两年整个行业阶段性啊 由于外部因素的扰动 阶段性的这个紧急放缓那么从今年下半年呢 我们说整个呃调整的事情逐步在落地 那么延迟 无论是延时的订单还是这个新型号从研发转批产的一些订单逐渐在今年的下半年三季度四季度呃 陆续会看到落地 那么往明年去看的话呢更多的这个新型的武器装备有望从研制转批产转这个批量生产列装的这么一个一个环节那么力图展望2027年整个我们说呃国家对于国防建设的整个发展规划是没有变的那 ...

各位嘉宾 各位老师同学 各位听众 各位新闻媒体朋友 大家上午好今天是由我们中国人民大学国家发展专业研究院中国人民大学经济学中正义普及信用评价有限公司联合主办的中共宏观经济论坛其中的一个板块 就是热点问题的研讨会那么今天我们的热点问题聚焦的是 来深度解读二十一届三中全会的文言精神那么大家知道我们刚刚召开了党的二十一届三中全会在这个会上我们吹响了全面深化改革的几句号为中国式现代化注入了一个强大的动力那么最近几天随着会议文件的全文的公布 大家都在认真学习深刻领会那么今天我们这个会的话我们将就这样的一个重要的文件我们来做一些深度的解读来如何来理解这个文件当中所阐述的全面深化改革的基本的纲领基本的原则以及它的逻辑从而我们来研判下一阶段 前面深化改革的基本的走向以及对我们中国经济的一个深刻的影响所以我想我们这个会公布信号的时候前所未有的获得了热烈的反响很多人成千上万的人在关注我们这样的一个会议大家都希望 今天因为我们邀请到了一些重量级的嘉宾大家都想从这个会员嘉宾的研究当中去更好的领会这样三中全会的会议精神那么我介绍一下出席这次会议的嘉宾按照现实比方依次介绍他们是中国国际经济交流中心副理事长王一鸣教授 上海财经大学校长中国 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry Overview - The overall market is experiencing a weak trend, with significant declines noted recently, particularly a drop exceeding 1.6% in the index [1] Key Points - The market has not seen such a pronounced decline for some time, indicating potential volatility and investor caution [1] - The focus is on identifying reliable trading opportunities amidst the current market conditions [1] Additional Important Content - The discussion emphasizes the importance of market analysis and the need for strategic investment decisions during periods of market weakness [1]