好的 谢谢小明书 各位好 我是环球传媒的朱朱今天晚上主要是跟大家分享三个要点一个是关于我们去回顾一下从股资经济再到首发经济总体还是拉动了一个新的供给跟需求第二个维度主要是分享一下关于微信小店非限定模式的社交礼物经济怎么看第三个点就是跨年行情怎么看 那每次当整个行业进入到一个监管呃护航发力的时候呃也不是说这个行这个短期行业就不行了更多的去凸显出这个专业的内容公司的优势是相对比较好的当然短期的本质也是跟流量有关系那流量加上短视频 好 接下来关于第一部分就是从骨子经济到首发经济整体来说主题热点是不断的但是在这种表象的主题热点之下也能凸显出来供需的新的矛盾或者说从政策的局景上面也希望能够拉动内需因为骨子经济它以这种女性二次元其实它能够去拉动很多的以IP为支点的带动了这些周边的一个手办 之后就进入到了首发经济就立马获得了一些新的关注因为首发经济之前是2015年的时候就提出来叫首电经济后来又拓展到像首次展示的经济首秀或首赛还有内容新品的首发因为首发经济当然凸显出来是在这个新字就是新模式新业态新服务新技术所以因为基于这样的一个新字所以它能够去涉及到的 这款是9月份的新品以及到明年Q2会上的AR Glass这个AI眼镜那总理 ...

好的大家晚上好今天呢我们团队哈我是浙江研究所的邱世良今天呢我们团队的这个机械进攻首席哈华进老师还有我们的陈诚老师呢一起给大家分享一下我们对低空经济一方面是我们做一个复盘第二个呢我们对未来对未来 的一些趋势以及催化剂给大家做一个分析汇报我们知道今年我们团队是市场最早也是最持续推荐这个板块的那么这个板块目前来看在持续的就是行情就演绎的很极致其实有几波行情那么接下来我觉得是开始要炒兑现的时候了 我们判断2025年的这个领域就是会有密集的项目的落地很多地方政府的资金也是会把它作为最优先级的最优先级的最优先级的最优先级的保障在这个领域所以明年但是基础设施是会先行基础设施会先行所以基础设施的一些股票是要优先的值得重视 但是作为一个板块性机会呢它其实是各个板块这个行都是都要重视的就我们说等级就是包括中游的这个最上包括最最最最早的就是基础建筑建设基建可能是先行那到最后面是应为的最应为的那么到了中间的包括等级哈等等等等这个环节我们是建议是买各个环节的农村 就是说它是一个反观性的机会,建议大家还是不要仅仅把它作为一个主题,可能从二零二五年就产业化,就开始会推进,这是我们最简单的逻辑。下面呢,尤其主要是请华金老师和陈陈老师给大家做 ...

好的各位投资者朋友各位同业老师大家上午好我们今天时间也到了今天就由我来跟大家来汇报一下我们长盛宏观对于2025年的整体的这么一个宏观经济的一个展望我们标题叫做大力改革避免陷阱这里的改革其实我们之前也会经常提比如说我们去年其实 我们的年报的主题呢叫做遵循市场提振信心那当时其实我们想表达的也是这么一种类似这种市场化改革的这么一种呼吁这是大力改革这方面那避免陷阱所谓的陷阱其实我们想要提到的呢就是流动性陷阱的这么一个概念那整体的我们理解2025年所以对于中国经济来说其实我们要更多要去做的可能就是这两方面的事情 那么接下来呢我们大致其实还是要按照一个先讲全球经济的这么一个背景然后再讲国内经济的一个展望当然我们在展望之前还是要大致的去回顾一下过去的一段时间资本市场的走势或者说经济的这么一个状况所以我们基本上的思路就是这样子那首先我们说展望明年或者说展望未来的三四年 经济都会面临一个更加加剧的这么一个动荡环境那包括金融的不确定性其实也会增强但我们在展望未来的未来之前其实还是要回顾一下过去一段时间过去一年资本市场的走势其实我们可能很多投资者都悄然一心啊就是说我们这个做投资2024年 最吃香或者说最稳的三大块就是美股、中债还有 ...

各位直播间的观众们,大家下午好。欢迎大家收看长城基金投资小红书系列直播。我是长城基金主持人宜心。那在我旁边的是小红书主理人,长城基金高级宏观策略研究员汪力总。欢迎汪总。各位直播间的小伙伴,大家下午好。 在节目正式开始之前,我们要进行本次节目的风险提示。本次节目的所有内容都仅代表嘉宾的个人观点,不构成任何投资建议。任何所表达的意见可能会更改,且不另外通知。市场有风险,投资需谨慎。接下来我们的直播正式开始。 那汪总我们今天这个直播时间也是比较巧啊刚巧这个政治局会议开完这个通稿出来之后呢那今天相信直播间的观众们也非常期待我们今天这个直播的内容那我们这个直播呢首先先从第一个环节开始我们第一个环节呢会针对近期大家最关心的一些热点问题就是行业的还有一些最关心的热点话题给大家请汪总给大家做个解答 那我已经拿到了近期我们后台观众最关心的这个问题啊我觉得还是挺有意思的因为最近那个股市经济是比较受大家年轻人还有二次市场投资者的这个追捧的那可以从这个当下的市场看到呢五亿的这种二次元的经济是引爆了股市经济的这样一个概念也拯救了线下的商圈那这个概念呢其实是有望牵引着这个市场的 但《正确时报》呢也是报道股市经济突然爆火,那其实在股市经济 ...

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market, focusing on new consumption trends and the robotics industry. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Performance**: The A-share market has shown strong upward momentum, with trading volumes increasing significantly, averaging around 1.6 to 1.7 trillion yuan daily, indicating high trading enthusiasm [2][3]. 2. **Investment Opportunities**: The emergence of new consumption patterns, particularly in short-form video content, is seen as a potential investment opportunity in the A-share market. The market for short dramas has surpassed traditional cinema box office revenues, reflecting a shift in consumer behavior [8][9]. 3. **Sector Performance**: Low-priced stocks are performing well, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks. However, there is a cautionary note regarding net outflows of institutional funds, totaling 170.3 billion yuan, indicating a cautious stance among some investors [3][4]. 4. **Bond Market Dynamics**: The bond market has also seen a strong performance, with the ten-year government bond yield dropping below 2%, the lowest since April 2002, which has positively impacted bond prices [4]. 5. **Consumer Confidence Initiatives**: The government is launching new rounds of consumption vouchers to stimulate consumer spending, particularly in light of upcoming holidays [4][7]. 6. **Technological Trends**: The discussion highlights the importance of AI and robotics, with a focus on the potential for growth in these sectors. The robotics index is expected to outperform the broader market due to favorable policies and industry growth prospects [13][21]. 7. **Investment Logic for Robotics**: The investment logic for the robotics sector includes industry growth drivers, investment opportunities across the supply chain, market performance, and policy support. The global population growth is slowing, leading to increased demand for automation [19][21]. 8. **Consumer Behavior Changes**: There is a notable shift in consumer behavior towards non-contact consumption methods, such as watching short videos at home, which is becoming a dominant form of entertainment [8][9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Caution on Market Volatility**: Investors are advised to remain vigilant as the end of the year approaches, which is often a period of earnings surprises and volatility in the A-share market [6]. 2. **Diverse Investment Strategies**: The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to consider various factors, including market trends and personal risk tolerance, when making investment decisions [22]. 3. **Potential for AI Integration**: The integration of AI in various sectors, including robotics and smart manufacturing, is highlighted as a key area for future growth and investment [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, focusing on market dynamics, investment opportunities, and emerging trends in consumer behavior and technology.

Summary of the Conference Call on the Ice and Snow Industry Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the ice and snow industry in China, highlighting its rapid growth and potential due to upcoming major events like the 2025 Asian Winter Games and the 2028 National Winter Games [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments - The ice and snow industry was valued at approximately 270 billion yuan in 2015 and is projected to reach 970 billion yuan in 2023, with expectations to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory [2]. - The hosting of large-scale ice and snow events is expected to drive further development, necessitating high-quality infrastructure, including sports venues, transportation, and accommodation [2][3]. - The popularity of ice and snow sports has surged, particularly following the Winter Olympics, which has increased public interest and participation [4][3]. Challenges and Shortcomings - Despite growth, the industry faces significant challenges, including: - Inadequate transportation options to remote ski resorts, which increases travel costs and limits market reach [5]. - Insufficient infrastructure, such as limited accommodation and dining facilities in less accessible areas [5]. - A shortage of qualified professionals, including coaches and maintenance staff, which could hinder industry development [6]. - Regulatory and safety standards are still evolving, which may pose limitations [6]. Market Dynamics - The ice and snow tourism index has seen a significant increase, rising nearly 60% since mid-September, reflecting a broader recovery in the capital market [8]. - The industry is expected to continue growing, with a projected increase in leisure tourism trips to over 3.8 billion, potentially surpassing 5 billion in the coming year [13]. - The previous snow season saw a 38% increase in participants and a 50% rise in revenue, with online tourism companies reporting a doubling of ice and snow tourism consumption compared to the 2019-2020 season [12]. Investment Opportunities - The ice and snow economy is seen as a vital component for driving domestic demand and economic growth, with significant potential for investment in related sectors such as tourism, equipment, and training [15]. - Companies involved in ice and snow tourism are highlighted as having the highest correlation to the industry's growth, suggesting a focus on tourism-centric businesses for investment [11]. Conclusion - The ice and snow industry in China is at a pivotal stage, with substantial growth potential driven by increasing consumer interest and government support. However, addressing infrastructure and professional training challenges will be crucial for sustainable development [16].

Summary of the Conference Call on Stock Capital Economy Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the concept of "Stock Capital Economy," which has gained significant attention recently, particularly in the context of the A-share market and its associated companies [1][2][3]. Core Concepts and Arguments - **Definition and Origin**: The term "Stock Capital Economy" originates from the English word "goods," initially linked to the subculture of the "two-dimensional" world, including anime and games. It has since expanded to encompass a broader range of intellectual property (IP) derivatives [2][3]. - **IP as Core Asset**: The primary asset in the cultural media industry is IP, which includes various forms such as anime, novels, and games. The current market understanding of Stock Capital Economy is heavily focused on IP derivatives [3][4]. - **Consumer Behavior**: There is a notable trend where consumers, especially younger demographics, are increasingly willing to spend on cultural and spiritual products, indicating a robust market for related merchandise [4][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The recent surge in interest in Stock Capital Economy is attributed to its established growth trajectory, similar to the rise of short dramas in the previous year. The market is now recognizing this as a new consumer trend with significant potential [5][6]. - **IPO Activity**: The anticipation of upcoming IPOs from representative companies in this sector is driving market interest, as these companies will provide insights into the industry's growth and potential [6][7]. Key Participants and Profit Models - **Industry Structure**: The Stock Capital Economy industry is divided into upstream, midstream, and downstream segments. Upstream involves the creation of IP, midstream focuses on the design and operation of products, and downstream encompasses distribution channels [7][8][9]. - **IP Creation**: Companies that excel in creating valuable IP are seen as having a competitive advantage. The ability to maintain the lifecycle of an IP through various forms of media and merchandise is crucial [9][14]. - **Operational Strategies**: Effective marketing and operational strategies are essential for showcasing IP in engaging ways. This includes innovative product designs and efficient cost management [10][11][15]. - **Market Potential**: The derivative market for Stock Capital Economy is projected to exceed 500 billion yuan, indicating substantial growth potential despite the absence of dominant players in the domestic market [12][13]. Risks and Regulatory Considerations - **Consumer Demographics**: The focus on younger consumers raises concerns about regulatory compliance, particularly regarding age restrictions on certain products. This presents a risk that companies must navigate carefully [19][20]. - **Market Maturity**: The Stock Capital Economy is still in its early stages, with ongoing developments in regulation and market understanding. This nascent phase presents both opportunities and challenges for investors [24][25]. Future Outlook - **Growth Trends**: The future of Stock Capital Economy is expected to be driven by the continuous creation of appealing IP and innovative product offerings that cater to consumer preferences [21][22]. - **Market Size and Sustainability**: The overall market size is deemed sufficient, with various segments showing promising growth trajectories. The emergence of successful companies in this space signals a healthy market environment [23][24]. - **Long-term Viability**: The industry is anticipated to evolve into a significant consumer market, similar to trends observed in Japan, with a focus on sustaining consumer interest and engagement [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the potential and challenges within the Stock Capital Economy sector.

讲盘面和产业趋势的因为确实现在我们看到这个市场的这个变化非常快每周交易的热点都有可能会发生变化无论是有新的规划也好或者是有新的产业趋势逻辑 总之就是现在这样比较快的变化的市场之下我们可能更需要去对于盘面以及每周新增的这些产业趋势或者是主题有我们自己的一个具体的解读 那么这里面可能包含我们对于这些产业趋势或者主题的具体的观点以及可能每一周会有一些新的主题的推荐这块的话我们后续都交给我们团队最擅长进行盘面观察和产业趋势分析的孔思迈进行跟踪下面把时间交给我们团队的孔思迈好的 刚总 应该可以听到 好的好的然后各位领导好我是动物策略的研究员孔思迈那么接下来由我对本周A股的盘面的一个情况和主题以及产业趋势的交易进行一个总结和展望那么还是再进行一下我们这个声明就是说我接下来提到的一些标的它只是代表跟这个产业的一个热点有关联那么所引述的一些资讯数据什么的都是为了展示那么并不构成投资潜意义然后各股层面请各位领导还是去参照我们这个研究所行业组的推荐标的 那么首先第一个部分是这个盘面的一个总结那么本周的话我们说市场其实是继续出现了一个缩量但是出现了一个奇文反弹那么周度的一个平均量能大概是在1.5万亿左右然后那么量能低点其实是出现在 ...

证券研究报告·海外经济与大类资产深度·2025 年度投资策略报告 从预期，跌落现实 2025 海外年度策略 核心观点：展望 2025 年，特朗普政策的内容和节奏均高度不确 定，美国经济边际走弱趋势下，将受到较多外生扰动，不看好美 国经济的稳健和韧性。海外市场大方向存疑，但波动或显著加大， 预期无法稳定，长期扰动下或滑向衰退逻辑。建议增加避险类资 产的权重，例如美债和黄金。而美股不排除出现阶段性、较大级 别的调整，工业品相对弱势，美元维持强势。 feijinglun@csc.com.cn 18518691700feijinglun@csc.com.cn 18518691700 一、美国经济与政策：折腾增加，衰退压力或再度来袭 由于基本面延续边际放缓的内生态势，且就业市场处于供需平衡 的微妙位置，美国经济对外生的政策冲击的敏感度或不会太低。 特朗普实质性的利好政策，例如减税等措施在短期兑现的概率偏 低，相反，其关税威慑、移民限制等负面措施可能很快对市场造 成不利影响，联储因为潜在未来变数而对货币政策路径更加谨 慎，特朗普极端个人风格对企业和居民的投资、生产、消费决策 也会造成干扰。 feijinglun@csc. ...

Summary of the Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic landscape and investment strategies for 2025, focusing on the implications of the MAGA (Make America Great Again) framework under the Trump administration and its impact on global markets and China's economic recovery [1][3][4][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. Global Economic Context - The return of Trump signifies a continuation of the MAGA policies, which aim to reshape America's global competitiveness and economic structure [3][4][5]. - The MAGA framework has three core objectives: - Encourage the return of high-end manufacturing to the U.S. - Strengthen U.S. technological leadership. - Restructure global supply chains for mid-to-low-end manufacturing [3][4][5][6][7]. 2. U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. is experiencing persistent inflation, particularly in housing, which is affecting overall economic performance [6][7][8]. - The inflation rate has shown resilience, with the U.S. economy remaining strong due to fiscal support and private investment [6][7][8]. - The MAGA policies have led to a significant increase in private sector investments, particularly in technology and manufacturing sectors [5][6][7]. 3. China's Economic Recovery - China's economy is undergoing a necessary transition from a real estate-driven model to one focused on consumer spending [4][5][6]. - The current economic environment in China is characterized by weak domestic demand, with both local government financing and household debt repayment impacting consumption [4][5][6][7]. - The anticipated recovery in domestic demand is expected to occur in three phases: liquidity easing, real estate recovery, and guiding capacity clearance [6][7][8]. 4. Commodity Pricing and Market Trends - The report highlights the importance of geopolitical factors and liquidity in determining commodity prices, with a focus on copper and oil [6][7][8]. - Gold prices have surged over 30% this year, driven by inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions [6][7][8]. - The domestic black commodity prices are experiencing a downward trend, reflecting the ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [6][7][8]. 5. Global Supply Chain Restructuring - The restructuring of global supply chains is evident, with China increasing its export share in key sectors such as automotive, consumer electronics, and machinery [6][7][8]. - The report notes that China's general machinery exports grew by 9.4% year-on-year, indicating a shift in global manufacturing dynamics [6][7][8]. 6. Financial Market Outlook - The outlook for U.S. equities and bonds remains uncertain, heavily influenced by monetary policy decisions [6][7][8]. - In China, the liquidity-driven market is expected to continue, with potential structural opportunities arising from the global supply chain shifts [6][7][8]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the need for patience in navigating the economic recovery phases, particularly in China, where external factors such as a strong dollar may complicate the recovery process [6][7][8]. - Risks highlighted include uncertainties in U.S. monetary policy, potential impacts of tariffs, and the effectiveness of China's domestic demand policies [6][7][8]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic landscape and investment strategies for the upcoming years.