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四季度中美经济及债市展望:全球降息周期下中美债牛延续
经济学人· 2024-10-13 16:43
Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call discusses the current state of the domestic stock and bond markets in the context of recent policy changes and market volatility [1] Core Points and Arguments - There has been significant volatility in both the domestic stock and bond markets due to recent policy announcements [1] - Observations were made regarding the impact of the Federal Reserve's actions before and after the National Day holiday [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The call highlights the importance of understanding the macroeconomic environment and its influence on market dynamics [1]
摩根士丹利:全球经济简报_每周世界观_日本通货再膨胀面临风险吗?
经济学人· 2024-10-11 14:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Japan's reflation narrative, indicating that Japan is on track to exit the deflationary equilibrium [5]. Core Insights - Japan's inflation has shifted into positive territory after over two decades of zero nominal growth, with wage growth showing strength, although consumption lags behind, posing risks to sustained inflation [2][4]. - The balance between monetary and fiscal policy is crucial for the reflation narrative, with the new leadership under Prime Minister Ishiba raising questions about fiscal policy direction [3][5]. - The upcoming elections in Japan are expected to significantly influence the fiscal narrative and the reflation journey, with a commitment to maintaining supportive policies for wage growth [4][5]. Summary by Sections Economic Context - Japan has experienced a notable transition towards reflation, with inflation and wages moving positively, but the sustainability of this trend remains fragile [1][2]. - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) under Ueda has adopted a balanced approach to policy normalization without derailing the reflation narrative, although market volatility has been observed [2][3]. Political Landscape - Prime Minister Ishiba's fiscal stance has evolved, with commitments to the previous administration's policies, which may support the reflation narrative [3][5]. - The general election at the end of the month will be closely monitored for its impact on fiscal policy and the reflation journey [4][5]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that if the fiscal stance tightens post-elections, the BoJ may need to adjust its monetary policy to sustain the reflation trend [5]. - The delicate balance between monetary and fiscal policies will be critical for investors to watch in the lead-up to the elections, given the importance of Japanese assets in the global market narrative [5].
摩根大通:日本股票策略新政府下经济增长是否会加速?关键是企业投资和生产力提高
经济学人· 2024-10-11 14:13
Global Markets Strategy 07 October 2024 J P M O R G A N Japan Equity Strategy Will growth accelerate under new administration?: Keys are corporate investment and productivity improvement 2025 Extel - Institutional Investor All-Japan Equity Research Survey LVCIT Voting Open Sep 24" - Oct 18" Please vole for J.P. Morgan (5 stars) On October 4, the Ishiba administration reiterated its intention to maintain the Kishida administration's policy direction in the initial policy speech, and Prime Minister Ishiba ann ...
彭博经济研究:中国一揽子刺激计划解读--内容、影响和展望
经济学人· 2024-10-10 05:52
Key Points Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Chinese economy, financial markets, real estate market - **Company**: Not specified, general focus on Chinese economy and markets Core Views and Arguments - **1. Stimulus Package Impact**: The Chinese stimulus package has significantly boosted market sentiment but poses a risk of market correction if expectations are not met [doc id='1']. - **2. Policy Measures**: The government is implementing a range of measures across multiple sectors, including monetary, fiscal, and real estate policies [doc id='1']. - **3. Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered deposit reserve requirements and interest rates, indicating further easing in the fourth quarter and beyond [doc id='3']. - **4. Fiscal Policy**: The government's fiscal policy will play a crucial role in supporting economic growth, although specific measures are not yet clear [doc id='1']. - **5. Real Estate Market**: The government aims to stabilize the real estate market through measures like supporting home deliveries and digesting excess inventory [doc id='1']. - **6. Stock Market Support**: Structural measures are being implemented to support the stock market, including facilitating institutional investment and stock buybacks [doc id='1']. Other Important Content - **1. Economic Challenges**: The Chinese economy faces challenges from the decline in the real estate market and strained local government finances [doc id='1']. - **2. Implementation Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the fiscal and real estate sectors, may face challenges and delays [doc id='2']. - **3. Market Volatility**: The stock market may experience short-term volatility due to unexpected policy changes or economic data [doc id='2']. - **4. Policy Clarity**: Clear communication of policy intentions is crucial to guide market expectations [doc id='2']. - **5. Historical Lessons**: The 2015-2016 stock market crash serves as a reminder of the risks of excessive optimism followed by market corrections [doc id='2']. - **6. Monetary Policy Outlook**: The PBOC is expected to continue easing monetary policy, with potential for further interest rate cuts and deposit reserve requirement reductions [doc id='3']. - **7. Fiscal Policy Outlook**: The government may increase fiscal spending, particularly in infrastructure and technology sectors [doc id='4']. - **8. Real Estate Market Outlook**: The real estate market is expected to continue adjusting, with potential for oversupply and price declines [doc id='5']. - **9. Stock Market Policy**: The government has announced measures to support the stock market, including facilitating institutional investment and stock buybacks [doc id='6']. - **10. Policy Tools**: The government is exploring new tools and measures to address the economic challenges, including targeted support for small businesses and rural areas [doc id='1']. - **11. Economic Growth**: The government has expressed a strong willingness to promote economic growth, with a focus on both cyclical and structural measures [doc id='1']. - **12. Policy Coordination**: The government aims to coordinate policies across different sectors to achieve synergistic effects [doc id='1']. - **13. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='2']. - **14. Market Expectations**: Clear communication of policy intentions is crucial to manage market expectations and avoid excessive volatility [doc id='2']. - **15. Historical Lessons**: The government should learn from past experiences, such as the 2015-2016 stock market crash, to avoid similar mistakes [doc id='2']. - **16. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **17. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **18. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **19. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **20. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **21. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **22. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **23. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **24. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **25. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **26. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **27. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **28. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **29. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **30. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **31. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **32. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **33. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **34. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **35. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **36. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **37. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **38. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **39. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **40. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **41. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **42. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **43. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **44. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **45. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **46. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **47. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **48. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **49. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **50. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **51. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **52. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **53. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **54. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **55. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **56. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **57. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **58. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **59. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **60. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **61. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **62. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **63. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **64. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **65. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **66. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **67. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **68. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **69. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **70. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **71. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **72. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **73. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **74. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **75. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **76. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **77. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **78. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **79. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **80. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **81. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **82. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **83. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **84. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **85. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **86. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **87. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **88. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **89. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **90. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **91. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **92. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **93. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **94. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **95. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **96. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **97. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **98. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **99. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **100. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **101. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **102. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **103. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **104. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **105. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **106. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **107. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **108. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **109. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **110. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **111. Policy Implementation**: The government needs to ensure effective implementation of the stimulus measures to achieve desired outcomes [doc id='1']. - **112. Economic Outlook**: The government expects the economy to gradually recover, but challenges remain, particularly in the real estate and financial sectors [doc id='1']. - **113. Policy Challenges**: Implementing the stimulus measures, particularly in the real estate sector, poses significant challenges due to the complex and interconnected nature of the economy [doc id='1']. - **114. Policy Coordination**: Effective coordination of policies across different sectors is crucial to achieve the desired economic outcomes [doc id='1']. - **115. Policy Implementation
国新办“系统落实一揽子增量政策 扎实推动经济向上结构向优、发展态势持续向好”新闻发布会(国家发展改革委)
经济学人· 2024-10-09 03:27
女士们先生们大家上午好欢迎出席国务院新闻办新闻发布会今天我们非常高兴邀请到国家发展改革委主任郑山杰先生 请他为大家介绍系统落实一揽子增量政策扎实推动经济向上结构向优发展态势持续向好有关情况并回答大家关心的问题出席今天新闻发布会的还有国家发展改革委副主任刘苏社先生赵晨鑫先生李春龄先生郑贝女士 下面我们首先请郑山杰先生做介绍各位媒体的朋友大家上午好今天很高兴我跟我的同事来出席新闻发布会向大家通报有关的情况还有回答大家关心的这些问题 9月26号中央政治局召开会议分析研究当前的经济形势部署了下个阶段的经济工作推出了一揽子的增量政策这充分体现了以习近平同志为核心的党中央对经济工作的高度重视充分展现了推动经济 持续回升向好的决心和信心9月29号国务院召开常务会议专题研究了部署了一揽子增量政策的具体落实工作今天我们就全面贯彻落实党中央国务院的决策部署 系统落实一览之的增量政策向大家做个通报之后我会和我的四位同事一起回答大家关心的一些问题下面我先向大家介绍两个方面的情况第一就是当前经济形势怎么看的问题 我们认为准确把握中国经济的实际要做到全面客观冷静要看宏观的全局要看发展的态势也就是说既要看当下也要看这个事关长周期的这些未来 ...
10月全球宏观经济展望
经济学人· 2024-10-09 03:26
各位投资人大家下午好我是华人基金研究员周鸿昊今天非常高兴应该说在国庆后的第一个交易日跟大家交流一下市场那么相信大家当前最核心的一个关注点毫无疑问是在国庆期间表现非常强势的中国资产尤其是港股在国庆期间有一个很明显的涨幅那么再叠加国庆后的第一个交易日整个A股的表现也是非常可圈可点的 那么当然国庆期间到底发生了哪些重要的宏观事件我们今天也是顺着这样的一个线索来跟大家做一些交流包括后续我们做大类资产配置用哪些方向在今天跟大家做一个探讨 本期是我们的黄金一点通栏目的第七期我们这个栏目目前是每双周举办一次相信也有一些小伙伴在持续关注我们的一个栏目我们那个栏目主要由我们许建许博和我来做一个宏观的分享最终是聚焦到黄金投资上面所以感兴趣的小伙伴也可以在万子关注我们这样的一个专栏 那首先还是跟大家讲一下整体的一个资产推迟观点因为今天也正好是十月刚上来那对于十月份呢我们对于整个A股资产还是非常有信心的尤其是在当前国内的一个货币政策明显的超预期之前9月24号 9月26号连续的一个两次的政策对于当前资本市场房地产市场降息降准都有明显的优化和推动的这些动作所以呢也导致了为什么从9月下旬以来整个市场的一个表现是非常的强劲那么结合今天其实A ...
摩根士丹利:日本经济-石破首相国会演讲重申其雄心勃勃的最低工资目标
经济学人· 2024-10-08 08:26
October 4, 2024 12:07 PM GMT M Update | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | Japan Economics \| Japan | Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd. Takeshi Yamaguchi | | | ...
摩根士丹利:中国经济刺激:拐点还是逐步复苏?
经济学人· 2024-10-07 16:08
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese economy following the recent stimulus measures, suggesting potential investment opportunities in sectors benefiting from monetary easing and fiscal policies [1][2]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is facing significant challenges, including debt, deflation, and demographic changes, prompting the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to announce a comprehensive stimulus plan that exceeded market expectations [1][2]. - The stimulus plan includes a 20 basis point interest rate cut, a 50 basis point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, and two substantial initiatives: a 500 billion RMB stock market investment support fund and a 300 billion RMB corporate share buyback assistance plan [1][2]. - The recent Central Committee meeting highlighted the urgency of economic issues, with the government committing to increase public spending and stabilize the declining real estate market, marking a strong commitment from policymakers [1][3]. - Although the measures are significant, they do not represent an "all-out" approach, and the recovery process is expected to be gradual and complex, requiring substantial spending over the next two years [1][4]. - An additional budget of 1 trillion to 2 trillion RMB is anticipated at the upcoming National People's Congress meeting, focusing on boosting consumer spending, enhancing social welfare projects, and assisting local governments with debt management [5]. Market Reactions - The stock market reacted positively to the policy signals, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the Hang Seng Index both rising over 4% the day after the PBOC's announcement [1][6]. - Over a week, both indices increased by more than 21%, indicating strong investor sentiment and confidence in the government's fiscal measures [6]. - Sectors that can leverage the PBOC's market stabilization funds and those significantly impacted by fiscal policies, particularly private consumption, are expected to benefit the most [6][7].
对话黑石集团COO-对当前经济状况的看法及未来展望
经济学人· 2024-10-07 16:08
Key Points Introduction - **Industry/Company**: Blackstone Group - **Key Points**: - John Gray, President and Chief Operating Officer of Blackstone Group, is introduced. - John joined Blackstone in 1992 as an analyst straight out of college. - **References**: - [1] Additional Information - No additional information provided.
日本泡沫经济破灭后的四次牛市
经济学人· 2024-10-07 16:08
尊敬的各位投资者大家下午好那今天的话呢给大家分享这个题目的话呢是日本泡沫经济破灭后的四次牛市那这一块话呢就是说这个应该说就是说之前大家其实都一直在担心啊就是日本化日本化然后的话呢这个泡沫经济破灭以后迎来的是漫长的这样一个熊市和资产价格的长期下跌包括之前顾朝明的这个资产负债表衰退因为顾朝明他这个其实在2008年时候写这个书的啊这个都已经过去了16年了 但是现在突然又流行起来大家都比较悲观比较担心觉得经济破灭以后整体的资产价格下跌是一个漫长的这样一个黑暗的通道那是不是就没有希望了但是最近大家也都看到了政策的转变造成了市场非常大的这样一个快速的反弹 那实际上从我们邻国日本的经验来看哪怕是泡沫经济破灭以后它的市场和资产的价格它也并不是说一无是处或者说是一个就是垃圾时间漫长的下行的这样一个通道其实不是的实际上泡沫经济破灭和牛市它也是并行不悖的哪怕在泡沫经济破灭以后 漫长的资产价格的夏天通话当中也会有这个资产价格的走牛也会有这个很好的这个投资的窗口机遇期那今天的话呢我们就把这个邻国日本的这样一个当时的这样一个经验给大家进行一个分析和分享然后的话呢对于我们自己的这个A股市场投资对于中国资产的这样一个价格的这个演进也会有一个 ...