彭博：中国经济刺激计划在华盛顿遭遇质疑 | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 在国际货币基金组织和世界银行年度会议间隙，各国央行行长和财政部长对中国 近期推出的降息、向银行注入更多资金和支持房地产行业的举措泼了 ...

各位观众朋友们大家好我是国际金融论坛主持人苗英那感谢大家每周一三五下午五点都准时锁定我们的直播间那我们今天继续就近期的一系列组合选政策以及经济金融热点的话题进行分享那今天来到我们直播间的分享嘉宾是国营新经济研究院创始院长朱克一律朱老师那首先我们欢迎朱老师来到我们的直播间朱老师您好主持人好大家好 那周老师呢是新经济事故首席研究员湾区新经济研究院院长工信部国家级专精特新小巨人企业评审专家荣获中国发展研究奖中国管理科学奖入选国家级骨干人才计划荣获中国企业改革发展优秀成果一等奖等等多项国家级奖励 并且兼任联合国世界思路论坛数字经济研究院高级研究员、哥伦比亚大学中国企业研究中心研究员、中国信息协会常务理事、亚太人工智能学会首席经济学家、中国矿业大学人工智能研究院 兼职教授、中国企业改革与发展研究会高级研究员、世界银行与中国进出口银行项目课题负责人长期在国务院系统的参与支部建设 持续从事新经济研究与管理实践提出三破三立新经济法则与五星区斗论那近期我们迎来了一系列宏观政策的密集出台国家压力推出一揽子增量政策包括五方面提向实施宏观政策进一步扩大内需加大住企帮扶力度促进房地产市场止跌回稳 努力提升资本市场那这些政策呢旨在进一步 ...

尊敬的各位领导各位嘉宾女士们先生们下午好欢迎大家来到由新华社上海中宣报联合权威机构顶级专家资源主办的上证院士说的活动现场那我是今天的主持人李星彩上证院士说旨在邀请以两院院士为代表的高层次专家聚焦前沿技术领域分享新思想新观点致力于打造资本科创产业相结合的高端交流平台 为探讨创新推动发展贡献智慧近年来低空经济作为一种全新的经济形态逐渐进入了公众视野2024年低空经济首次被写入政府工作报告党的二十届三中全会也专门提到了发展低空经济据测算2023年我国低空经济规模将超过5000亿元到2030年以往超过2万亿元 今天的讲台将重点围绕地中经济的前沿热点和发展前景共同探讨地中经济如何乘风而起那么今天的活动我们也非常有幸邀请到了著名的红外物理学家半导体物理与器件专家中国科学院院士中国科学院上海技术物理研究所研究员褚军浩先生蒞临本次论坛那么今天蒞临活动现场的还有来自党政机关科研院所 体事业单位的领导专家以及上市公司高管金融机构高管中介机构负责人等各级人士谢谢大家莅临上证院士说那么接下来我们首先邀请活动的主办方上海证券报社党委常委董事齐杰仁先生致辞有请齐总 尊敬的楚院士还有各位上市公司的高管企业家朋友大家下午好我是抛砖引玉啊在上 ...

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Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating [1] Core Views - The main focus of China's economy and market is on policy changes and their impact on future economic trends [1][2] - There is significant divergence in market views, with investors split between bullish and bearish perspectives [1][2] - Recent policy signals indicate efforts to break deflation, but measures are seen as insufficient [1][2] - Market is anticipating a second round of more forceful policies to drive economic recovery [1][2] Policy Measures and Effects - Since September 24, China has implemented policies including debt restructuring, consumption stimulus, and reforms to boost private sector confidence [1][3] - These measures have increased reflation progress from 20% to 35%-40%, but remain below expectations [1][3] - Debt restructuring has made some progress, but consumption stimulus and confidence-building reforms have limited effects [1][3] Future Policy Expectations - Discussions are ongoing about potential new policies with greater intensity to address deflation [1][4] - Decision-makers have shown strong willingness to implement more forceful measures [1][4] - A projected 10 trillion RMB in reforms and stimulus over two years could help overcome deflation [1][4] Real Estate Sector - Recent policies aim to reduce inventory and stabilize market expectations [1][6] - Measures have not yet fully taken effect, with significant inventory pressure remaining [1][6] - Central bank rate cuts may lower home purchase costs, but impact on actual demand will take time [1][6] AI Sector - The AI sector shows significant divergence, with global capital heavily flowing into AI [1][7] - This has drawn attention away from other sectors, including China's economic recovery [1][7] - There is a need to balance AI development with other industries for overall economic growth [1][7] External Factors - US elections could impact global capital flows and RMB exchange rates [1][5] - New US administration may adjust trade and investment policies affecting China-US economic relations [1][5] Economic Outlook - Without additional demand-side policies, China's economic growth may slow after Q1 2025 [13] - Current policies may only narrow deflation rather than restore healthy inflation [13] Potential Major Projects - New "Three Major Projects" could include real estate inventory reduction, social security contribution exemptions, and fertility subsidies [14][23] - Each project could involve trillions of RMB, with potential total stimulus reaching 3-4 trillion RMB annually [14][23] Semiconductor Industry - AI-related semiconductors remain promising, but consumer electronics recovery is slow [24] - Inventory digestion is slow, impacting equipment suppliers like ASML [24] - China's DUV equipment purchases continue, but export controls create uncertainty [24] A-Share Market Leaders - Positive outlook for industry leaders in China's A-share market [25] - Caution needed for sectors affected by export controls, particularly AI-related areas [25]

政策转向下的中国宏观经济 20241020 摘要 • 2024 年前三季度，中国宏观经济运行整体保持平稳，稳中有进，GDP 增长 率接近年初制定的 5%左右的目标，完成年度目标是大概率事件。 • 尽管 GDP 增速逐季略微下降，但降幅在收窄，显示出经济运行状况有所改 善，就业情况稳定，全国城镇调查失业率维持在 5.1%左右，用电总量持 续增长，反映了宏观经济活跃度提升。 • 结构性改善明显，高科技制造业、装备制造业、新能源汽车和集成电路等 领域增速远超整体制造业和宏观经济增速，显示出经济结构不断优化。 • 国际收支方面，出口增长维持较高增速，外汇储备增加，为中国宏观经济 韧性提供了良好基础。 • 然而，当前中国宏观经济也面临一些潜在问题，例如 GDP 增速逐季下降， 需要更积极的政策支持以确保第四季度及明年初的良好开局。 • 有效需求不足是近年来中国宏观经济面临的一大中期挑战，消费对经济增 长贡献不足甚至出现较大下降，内需亟待提振，以实现更均衡、更可持续 的发展。 Q&A 如何解读 2024 年前三季度中国宏观经济的整体表现？ 2024 年前三季度，中国宏观经济运行整体保持平稳，稳中有进。具体来看，主 要有以 ...

低空经济系列电话会议五-近期政策及产业变化梳理 20241018 摘要 • 低空经济已成为国家战略，2023 年 3 月中央政府工作报告首次强调积极 打造低空经济新增长引擎，并将其视为新生产力的重要方向。 • 低空经济目前主要应用于直升机和工业无人机领域，未来发展潜力较大的 领域是电动垂直起降飞行器（eVTOL），预计将开启立体交通的新纪元， 缓解一线城市交通拥堵问题。 • 低空经济目前处于从 0 到 1 的发展阶段，尚未有企业获得 AOC（航空运营 证）进行商业化运行，但亿航等企业已提交申请，预示着未来无人化载人 运营将加速发展。 • 政策支持是推动低空经济发展的重要因素，国家发改委预计无人机操控员 岗位缺口高达 100 万人，截至 2023 年底全国无人机注册数量为 126 万台， 预计 2024 年底将达到 227 万台，反映了政策刺激下行业的蓬勃发展。 • 无人机操控员（飞手）需求急剧上升，预计 2024 年需要约 20 万名飞手， 未来包括 eVTOL 等新兴应用，对专业人才的需求可能会进一步扩大至 100 万人以上。 • 工业级无人机应用于物流、森林防火等领域，技术逐步成熟，但与 eVTOL 相比 ...

更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 M Foundation | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------| | October 14, 2024 04:41 AM GMT | | | | | Investor Presentation \| Asia Pacific | | Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing | | | 更 ...

Summary of Key Points Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around macroeconomic policies and data, particularly focusing on the fiscal policies released by the Ministry of Finance and their implications for the automotive industry. Core Points and Arguments - The recent press conference held by the Ministry of Finance aimed primarily at risk prevention in the economy [1] - The conversation highlights the importance of interpreting recent economic data and policy announcements to understand their impact on various sectors, including automotive [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The mention of GDP data indicates a broader economic context that may affect investment decisions and market dynamics [1] - The reference to previous discussions on macroeconomic policies suggests a continuity in monitoring economic indicators and their implications for future trends [1]

M Update Asia/Pacific Weekly Economic Preview | Asia Pacific October 13, 2024 08:25 PM GMT Central Banks in Action; China in Focus Four central banks are set to meet and we expect two of the four to ease monetary policy. We see BI and BSP continuing with their rate cut cycles with a second 25bp cut, while MAS and BOT stay on hold. Meanwhile, the latest data out of China will likely show an economy that is still slowing. Exhibit 1: Event Calendar for October 14 - 20 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...