CEO 必备系列 在经济挑战中 ， 亚太 地区首席执行官如何 在 AI 时代成长 安永 CEO 展望调查 | 亚太版 ey. com / ceo - outlook - 亚太 亚太地区报告 | CEO 必备系列 | 1 2023 年 10 月的 EY 首席执行官展望认 为 ， 亚太地区首席执行官们在很大程 度上持乐观态度 ， 着眼于人工智能和 交易来引导增长。 相反，许多首席执行官期望的持续疫情 后反弹在2023年并未出现，这一年迄今 为止一直非常不稳定。然而，尽管宏观 经济环境充满不确定性，特征包括持续 的通胀、经济增长放缓以及中国的经济 减速，来自亚太地区的首席执行官们的 情绪总体上仍然乐观。几乎三分之二（6 5%）的首席执行官预计其组织在2024年 的收入增长率将高于2023年。此外，60 %的首席执行官预计盈利能力会提高。 简而言之 • 亚太地区首席执行官（CEOs） 预计2024年将实现更高的增长， 尽管存在潜在障碍和持续的风险 • 生成式人工智能（GenAI）成为 关键的投资重点，并正在从其他 投资预算中吸引资本 • 高管们对 交易的兴趣依然强劲，偏好在亚 太地区寻求扩张机会 65 的首席执 行官 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it [2]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance (MoF) press conference was perceived as somewhat negative for near-term market sentiment but positive for medium-term macro fundamentals, indicating a pro-growth policy shift is still in progress [6][7][19]. - The proposed package from the MoF focused more on risk resolution rather than immediate growth stimulus, with limited attention given to consumer support [7][19]. - The upcoming National People's Congress (NPC) meeting is expected to provide more details on fiscal policies and budget adjustments [10][16]. Summary by Sections MoF Press Conference - The MoF outlined four incremental policies, including a significant increase in local government debt quota and the use of special bonds for property buybacks [8][10]. - The press conference confirmed that the central government has substantial room to raise debt and deficit, suggesting a potential breach of the 3% deficit threshold in 2025 [10][21]. Fiscal Policies - The report anticipates additional fiscal measures amounting to approximately RMB2 trillion within the year, primarily through off-budget special government bonds [11][12]. - A revenue shortfall of around RMB1.6 trillion was estimated for the first eight months of the year, with the MoF reallocating RMB400 billion from unused local government bond quotas to offset this [12][19]. Market Implications - The tone of the MoF's announcements is expected to improve local risk sentiment, although foreign investors may remain cautious due to the lack of concrete details [22][23]. - The report suggests that the fiscal policies may not be sufficient to drive immediate growth but could empower local governments and banks with more resources [15][19].

低空经济带到了一个投资机会大家也能看到我们今天的这个直播主题那大家都知道呢其实低空经济呢今年的关注度可以说是非常非常的高那它作为战略性新兴产业啊产业链是比较长的带动性也是非常强的在医疗气象农业等领域呢都有非常广泛的应用 那咱们直播呢也是特别邀请到我们永宁低碳环保智显的经理胡泽老师来和我们直播进行一个分享交流那先请胡老师和咱们屏幕前的各位投资者朋友们来打个招呼吧大家好我是永宁低碳环保的经理胡泽 好的非常欢迎胡老师再次来到咱们直播间那在本场直播当中呢如果各位小伙伴们对于我们低空经济赛道的投资上有任何的问题都欢迎大家呢在我们的直播的评论区当中给我们留言评论啊好的欢迎各位进到我们直播间的小伙伴们欢迎自在无间欢迎大家 那咱们首先呢和大家来聊聊最近小伙伴们非常关心的关于投资上面的问题就是其实大家能够感受到最近的低空经济行情的波动也是非常大的那我这边呢也看了一下数据自9月24日至10月8日的六个交易日低空经济指数呢是强势反弹涨幅34.23%那最近三天呢是遭遇了一定的调整跌幅呢是14.27%那今天呢又看到是一波大涨啊指数呢是上涨了5.5% 所以小伙伴们的内心也是比较的迷茫到底为什么会有这样的一个波动首先想请胡老师帮咱们盘一盘 ...

M Update CEEMEA Economics Weekly | EEMEA October 11, 2024 03:30 AM GMT A World of Caution The BOI held the key rate as expected, signalling tighter policy for longer. Ukraine and Czech CPI surges were fuelled by food but it eased in Hungary. We expect rates on hold in Turkey and Egypt with a cautious tone in response to inflation beats. Turkey | Expecting a cautious tone: We see the CBT on hold at 50% and expect a more cautious tone in communication given the significant inflation beat in September. We thin ...

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the WanDe 3C platform, indicating a focus on the technology and consumer electronics sector. Core Points and Arguments - There has been a noticeable shift in policy since late September, which has led to significant changes in the market dynamics [1] - The focus of the call is on the economic and market trends following this policy shift [1] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The speaker expresses enthusiasm for the opportunity to engage with investors, highlighting the importance of communication in the current market environment [1]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 中国最新刺激措施能拯救经济吗？ 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 鉴于消费支出疲软、出口前景不明朗以及房地产市场仍不稳定，中国今年 5% 的经济增长目标 看起来有些雄心勃勃。北京在 9 月底推出了一揽子刺激措施，推动股市历史性上涨。在投资 者对支持措施的规模感到失望之后，中国承诺采取新措施支持房地产行业，并暗示将增加政府 借款以支撑经济。即便如此，增长目标看起来仍然有些勉强。通货紧缩压力依然存在，在经历 了 30 年的空前增长之后，这个世界第二大经济体有可能陷入日本式的长期低迷期。 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 在最新一轮刺激措施出台之前，绝大多数全球银行都预计中国经济今年将无法实现目标。通货 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 紧缩压力不断上升，新房价格跌幅创下 2014 年以来最大，消费者信心降至一年半多以来的最 低水平。政府继续依靠制造业和出口来推动经济复苏。彭博调查的经济学家中，不到五分之一 预测 2024 年国内生产总值将增长 5%，美国银行等银行的分析师质疑为何财政和货币政策没 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - China's economic growth target of 5% for this year appears ambitious due to weak consumer spending, uncertain export outlook, and instability in the real estate market [1] - Most global banks anticipated that China would not meet its economic targets this year, with deflationary pressures rising and new home prices experiencing the largest decline since 2014 [2][6] - The latest stimulus measures may increase economic growth by 1 to 1.1 percentage points over the next four quarters, potentially bringing China closer to its 5% growth target [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Manufacturing activity has been in contraction since April 2023, except for three months, indicating significant challenges in the manufacturing sector [6] - The real estate sector, a major growth engine, has faced ongoing turmoil, with many developers halting construction on sold but unfinished homes, leading to a significant drop in consumer confidence [10][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - China's youth unemployment rate has been rising, reaching its highest level this year, reflecting broader economic challenges and a lack of job opportunities for graduates [9][8] - Consumer spending during the recent holiday period showed a decline compared to pre-pandemic levels, indicating weakened consumer confidence [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction and Industry Competition - The Chinese government has committed to stabilizing the real estate market through measures such as lowering mortgage rates and relaxing regulations [3] - There is a focus on increasing fiscal spending and issuing bonds to counter economic slowdown, with the government emphasizing the need to listen to market feedback [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenges posed by deflation and the need for substantial fiscal resources to overcome the current economic downturn [12] - The government faces pressure to deliver on promises of economic support to avoid repeating past cycles of boom and bust [14] Other Important Information - The International Monetary Fund predicts that China will remain the largest contributor to global economic growth by 2028, accounting for 22.6% of the total, which is double that of the United States [4] - The ongoing real estate crisis has led to a significant evaporation of household wealth, pushing consumers to save rather than spend [8] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the implications of China's economic downturn for global markets? - China's economic slowdown is a concern for many countries reliant on its demand, particularly commodity-exporting nations like Brazil and Australia [4] Question: How effective are the recent stimulus measures? - Analysts are cautiously optimistic that the stimulus measures could provide some relief, but overcoming deflation and reviving the real estate market will be challenging [12]

史诗级经济刺激政策即将到来？20241013 摘要 • 财政部宣布将推出一揽子增量政策，包括加大周期调节力度、保持财政支 出刚性、做好基层三保工作、使用超长期特别国债和地方政府专项债等， 旨在推动稳增长、扩内需、防范化解风险。 • 这些政策将通过较大规模增加债务额度支持地方化解存量隐形债务，减轻 地方政府债务压力，腾出更多资源发展经济，改善企业资金流紧张问题， 提振企业投资信心并增加就业。 • 发行特别国债以支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本，有助于增强银 行抗风险能力及信贷扩张能力，推动存量房贷利率下调及地方隐形债务重 组与置换工作，进一步服务实体经济。 • 财政部将通过叠加运用地方政府专项债券、专项资金及税收政策来配合货 币金融部门已推出的一系列组合拳，以推动房地产市场止跌回稳，具体措 施包括利用专项债进行土地储备、增加商品房收购作为保障性住房、加强 房地产相关税收优惠与金融支持。 • 政府将加大对企业和居民家庭部门的支持力度，包括出台助企帮困制度、 规范企业执法监管行为、扩大消费与惠民生相结合、加大对重点群体的支 持保障力度等。 • 财政部发布会中关于预期管理有几个显著亮点，包括强调中央财政还有较 大 ...

四季度中美经济及债市展望：全球降息周期下中美债牛延续 20241012 摘要 • 美国经济在近期表现出一定的韧性，主要得益于货币增速的回升。自去年 三季度以来，美国货币增速有所回升，主要原因包括硅谷银行事件后的财 政政策转向积极，以及加息速度放缓甚至开始降息，这些因素共同支撑了 美国经济和金融市场。 • 尽管美国经济表现出韧性，但未来经济走势仍存在不确定性。市场普遍预 期美国将实现软着陆，但未来几个季度可能会看到一些放慢迹象。预计经 济放缓风险主要来自于财政政策难以持续保持高位、利息负担仍在逐步上 升、股市上涨空间有限以及大选政策的不确定性。 • 美国财政赤字对经济有显著影响。2020 年和 2021 年，由于疫情爆发，美 国财政赤字达到了历史高位，每年约 3 万亿美元，占 GDP 比重超过 10%。 然而，到 2022 年，由于通胀上升，财政赤字显著回落。然而，在 2023 年至 2024 年间，赤字规模再次上升，预计将超过 2 万亿美元。 • 美国未来财政状况面临较大压力。美国目前面临较大的财政压力，其绝对 的财政赤字余额已达到 30 多万亿美元。此外，高额国债发行量对应着越 来越高的利息支出负担。如果不 ...

各位投资人大家下午好我是台大证券研究所所长马燕欢迎大家参加今天下午的活动我们都知道近期A股市场经历了剧烈的震荡自上个月24号一系列政策刺激下二级市场出现了暴涨行情然而本周四的市场在冲高之后大幅调整所以大家都很关注周末的中邦会议会释放出哪些特别的利好政策 昨天财政部的领导也汇报了关于加大财政政策一周期调节力度推动经济高质量发展的有关情况汇报并且表示围绕着稳增长扩内需化风险近期将会陆续推出一揽子有针对性的增量政策昨天下午之后会后我们看到资本市场的这个反应其实是有很大的分歧的对此今天我们邀请了三位专家就此次的会议提出的政策分别进行解读 首先我们有请第一位嘉宾台大定确院研究院首席经济学家轩宇老师来为我们从宏观角度解读财政增量政策的作用空间和主要的发力点及后续对于市场的影响有请轩宇老师好的各位领导各位投资人大家下午好 今天我跟大家分享的这个主题就是财政政策空间大经济回稳 回升向好的这个基础还是非常有保障的大家知道昨天就是10月12号国际办举行了备受市场关注和期待的这个财政部发布会财政部宣布将在近期度数推出一篮子有针对性的增量政策举措在9月26号中央政治局会议定调以后 金融货币部门还有发改委国家发改委部门等推出了一系列的 ...