沈阳 写字楼与零售市场概况 2025年第四季度 1 沈阳宏观经济概况 地区生产总值 (亿元) 7,248 13,416 9,642 10,434 13,373 6,614 大连 天津 西安 济南 青岛 沈阳 第三产业增长率 4.9% 5.2% 4.9% 5.1% 5.6% 4.3% 大连 天津 西安 济南 青岛 沈阳 社会消费品零售总额 (亿元) 1,609 3,919 4,152 4,009 4,991 3,191 大连 天津 西安 济南 青岛 沈阳 来源：当地统计局 戴德梁行 - 22 大连 城镇居民人均可支配收入 (元) 43,918 47,990 42,934 42,749 53,545 43,482 大连 天津 西安 济南 青岛 沈阳 2024 年末人口 (百万) | 沈阳 | 9.2 | | --- | --- | | 青岛 | 10.4 | | 济南 | 9.5 | | 西安 | 13.1 | | 天津 | 13.6 | | 大连 | 7.5 | 房地产开发投资增长率 -21.6% 1.5% 2.2% -6.6% -10.7% -26.0% 注：人口为年末常住人口数据，其他数据为截至2025Q3 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the real estate sector in Greater China for 2026 Core Insights - 2026 will be a year of adjustment for economic structural transformation, with expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption as the main drivers for economic growth [7] - The integration of logistics and manufacturing facilities will continue to enhance the resilience and competitiveness of the supply chain in Greater China [11] - The rise of domestic retail brands and the shift from "scale expansion" to "value creation" will redefine the retail property market [10] - The demand for office spaces will be significantly driven by the TMT sector, with a focus on high-quality office environments [9] - The expansion of public REITs to include office buildings and hotels will increase investor interest in these sectors [12] Summary by Sections Macro Trends - 2026 will focus on boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand, shifting the development emphasis from the supply side to the demand side [14] - The transition from "investing in things" to "investing in people" will enhance consumer confidence in areas such as education, social security, and housing [14] - The high-quality development of real estate will shift from merely providing housing to ensuring quality living conditions, stabilizing market prices over the next two years [16] Hot Topics and Alternative Assets - AI-driven data centers will continue to attract investor attention, with asset management becoming increasingly important in enhancing asset value [8][22] - The emphasis on green transformation and sustainable development will significantly impact the real estate industry, with green-certified buildings gaining value [23] - The rapid development of data centers driven by AI and cloud computing will create significant growth potential in this asset class [24] Office Market - The TMT sector's demand for office space will see significant growth, with a focus on high-standard office spaces [29] - Self-use buyers will remain a crucial support for the office market, with high-growth domestic companies actively purchasing self-use spaces [30] - The availability of supporting facilities will be key to enhancing the competitiveness of office spaces [31] Retail Property Market - Domestic retail brands are emerging strongly, transitioning from aggressive growth to a focus on value creation [37] - The new generation of consumers is shifting from material satisfaction to emotional value, driving the rise of niche brands and customized services [38] - The integration of smart technology in retail will reshape consumption scenarios and enhance operational efficiency [39] Industrial Logistics Market - The integration of logistics and manufacturing will strengthen supply chain resilience and competitiveness [44] - The introduction of smart automation systems will enhance logistics efficiency amid rising labor costs [45] - The "China +1" strategy will create investment opportunities in high-quality factory spaces as some low-value production moves abroad [46] Bulk Transaction Market - The total transaction volume of commercial real estate in Greater China remained stable at RMB 268.6 billion in the first three quarters of 2025 [52] - Domestic buyers dominated the market, with foreign investment at a historical low due to external market conditions [53] - The REITs market is expected to grow as the scope of C-REITs expands to include more commercial real estate sectors [54] City Markets - In Beijing, the office market is expected to face pressure from increased supply, with a projected 1.26 million square meters of new supply in 2026 [66] - The retail market in Beijing will see over 1.1 million square meters of new supply, focusing on high-quality consumer spaces [66] - In Shanghai, the office market will continue to adjust, with TMT and financial sectors being the main demand drivers [84] - Shenzhen's logistics market will benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, while the retail market will see a rise in demand for innovative commercial spaces [102]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the industry, indicating growth potential and favorable market conditions [1]. Core Insights - The industry is projected to experience significant growth, with a forecasted revenue of 18,322.3 billion in 2025, up from 15,081.0 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 14.8% [3][10]. - Key growth drivers include technological advancements and increasing consumer demand, particularly in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which is expected to grow by 29% [24][28]. - The report highlights a trend of increasing average rents in prime shopping centers, with a notable increase of 10.4% in 2025 [28]. Summary by Sections Revenue Forecast - The industry is expected to generate revenues of 18,322.3 billion in 2025, with a steady growth trajectory observed from previous years [3][10]. - The revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are projected at 6.1% for 2025, indicating a robust market outlook [5]. Sector Performance - The TMT sector is highlighted as a key performer, with a projected growth rate of 29% [24]. - The average rental rates in prime locations are anticipated to rise, reflecting increased demand and market confidence [28]. Market Trends - The report notes a significant increase in consumer spending and investment in technology, which are driving the overall growth of the industry [28]. - The average rent in prime shopping centers is expected to increase by 10.4% in 2025, indicating a strong recovery and demand in the retail sector [28].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transformation of the real estate industry from a development-driven model to an asset management-focused approach, highlighting the need for value preservation and enhancement in a changing market environment [4][10][26] - It identifies significant shifts in supply and demand dynamics within the real estate market, indicating a transition from rapid urbanization and expansion to a focus on optimizing existing assets and improving quality [11][14][23] - The report outlines the importance of adopting a comprehensive asset management strategy that spans the entire lifecycle of real estate assets, from acquisition to operation and eventual exit [39][41][67] Market Dynamics - The real estate market in China has experienced profound changes, with a notable decline in new housing sales and development investments since 2022, leading to an oversupply situation [10][11][14] - Major cities have seen a significant increase in the stock of Grade A office buildings, with total stock growing by 85.9% from 2016 to 2024, resulting in rising vacancy rates and downward pressure on rental prices [17][18] - The retail property market has also expanded, with high-quality shopping center stock increasing by 158.3% from 2016 to 2024, intensifying competition among commercial properties [21][22] Demand Evolution - The report highlights a shift in consumer preferences, with an increasing focus on quality and experience in housing and commercial spaces, driven by demographic changes and economic conditions [23][24] - The demand for rental housing is expanding, alongside a growing emphasis on sustainable and smart living environments, reflecting changing societal values [24][26] Asset Management Strategies - The report advocates for a strategic shift towards asset management that prioritizes long-term value creation through operational enhancements and financial optimization [32][34] - It emphasizes the necessity of a structured approach to managing existing assets, including categorizing and evaluating properties to maximize their operational efficiency and value [72][78] - The importance of dynamic adjustments in management strategies to respond to market fluctuations and tenant needs is underscored, ensuring that assets remain competitive and profitable [81] Value Tracking and Exit Strategies - Continuous tracking of asset values and market feedback is essential for understanding the factors influencing property valuations [51][52] - The report outlines various exit strategies, including asset securitization and equity transfers, as critical for realizing the value of real estate investments [59][60][64] - It stresses the significance of identifying optimal exit timing and methods to maximize asset value realization [59][60]

Group 1: Market Key Indicators - As of the end of Q3 2025, the stock of Grade A office buildings in Shenzhen reached 8.879 million square meters, with a vacancy rate of 29.0% and an average rent of RMB 153.4 per square meter per month [2][3][9] - In 2025, Shenzhen's GDP is expected to grow by 5.1%, the tertiary industry by 6.1%, CPI by 0.1%, and real estate development investment to decline by 15.1% [2] Group 2: Supply - Side Analysis - New supply in Q3 2025 was concentrated in the Qianhai area, which promoted the business atmosphere but also intensified the imbalance between supply and demand, raising the vacancy rate by 1.2 percentage points [3] - The average rent dropped by 4.2% quarter - on - quarter and 11.2% year - on - year, and the net absorption reached 92,000 square meters, a quarterly high since 2024 [3] - Owners are exploring diversified ways to attract customers, such as transforming the cooperation model with office building operators from a traditional rental relationship to a partnership [3] Group 3: Demand - Side Analysis - In the first three quarters, leasing demand was mainly concentrated in TMT, finance, professional services, and retail trade. In Q3, some niche technology companies entered the market [4] - Professional services and finance sectors saw a recovery in leasing demand in Q3, and companies in hotel, circular economy, new consumption, and logistics sectors also had large - area leasing transactions [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The large amount of upcoming supply will increase the pressure on the Grade A office building market, which may drive more innovative exploration in office building operation [5] Group 5: Regional Market Data - In different regions of Shenzhen, Luohu has a vacancy rate of 36.5%, Futian 20.7%, Nanshan 28.7%, Qianhai 42.4%, and Bao'an 26.0% as of 2025 [9] - The average rent in different regions ranges from RMB 124.04 in Qianhai to RMB 169.14 in Futian [9] Group 6: Transaction and Construction Information - In Q3 2025, major leasing transactions included Point Cat Technology leasing 9,800 square meters in China State - owned Capital Venture Capital Building in Qianhai [10] - Major ongoing construction projects include China Merchants Bank Global Headquarters Building in Shenzhen Bay Super Headquarters Base, expected to be delivered in 2026 [11]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the Asian REITs market in 2024 Core Insights - The 2024 Asian REITs market has seen significant developments, particularly in the mainland China infrastructure public REITs sector, which has entered a phase of normalized issuance, surpassing Hong Kong in market capitalization for the first time [3][5] - The total market capitalization of active REITs in Asia is $235.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.5% as of December 31, 2024 [4][12] - Emerging markets such as mainland China, Thailand, and India are showing robust growth, while traditional markets like Japan, Singapore, and Hong Kong are experiencing a contraction in market value [12][22] Summary by Sections Overview of the Asian REITs Market - As of December 31, 2024, there are 263 active REITs in Asia, with a total market capitalization of $235.8 billion, down 6.5% from the previous year [4][8] - The mainland China REITs market has grown significantly, now ranking among the top three markets in Asia, alongside Japan and Singapore [8][22] Mainland China Infrastructure Public REITs Market - The mainland China infrastructure public REITs market has achieved historic highs in issuance speed and scale, with 64 products listed and a total market capitalization of 186 billion yuan [5] - The report emphasizes the diversification of underlying assets, including consumer infrastructure and logistics, as a key trend in the market [5] Overseas Hotel REITs Case Analysis - The report highlights successful cases from mature markets, particularly in hotel REITs, and discusses their relevance to the development of China's public REITs market [3] ESG Practices in the REITs Market - ESG considerations are identified as crucial for the long-term health of the REITs market, with a need for further development in ESG certification and rating practices in China [5]

Investment Rating - The report provides an investment rating of 17.16% for the industry in 2024, indicating a positive outlook for growth [2][7]. Core Insights - The industry is projected to reach a market size of ¥13,679.92 billion by 2025, with a significant growth rate of 17.16% [7]. - The GDP growth rate is expected to be 5.1% in 2024, with a slight increase in CPI by 0.1% [2]. - The report highlights a strong performance in the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, which is expected to contribute significantly to the overall growth [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Market Size and Growth**: The industry is anticipated to grow to ¥13,679.92 billion by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.16% from 2024 [7]. - **Sector Performance**: The TMT sector shows a robust growth trajectory, with specific segments projected to grow at rates exceeding 20% [3][7]. - **Economic Indicators**: The report notes a GDP growth of 5.1% and a CPI increase of 0.1% for 2024, suggesting a stable economic environment for the industry [2].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Beijing retail market is experiencing a transformation with the introduction of new projects and the renovation of existing ones, driven by changing consumer habits and demands [3][5] - The market is expected to see over 700,000 square meters of quality retail space launched in 2025, primarily from large-scale new projects and urban renewal initiatives [5] - The introduction of new brands, particularly first stores, is revitalizing consumer engagement in Beijing, with 960 first stores expected in 2024 and 800 in 2025 [4] Market Overview - In Q1 2025, three new projects opened in Beijing, adding 356,000 square meters of quality retail space, bringing the total shopping center stock to 1.666 million square meters [3] - Urban renewal projects are becoming the main source of quality shopping center supply, with significant upgrades in both space structure and brand offerings [3] - The trend of upgrading older retail projects is ongoing, with operators taking over and revitalizing these spaces [3] Brand Developments - High-end dining and cultural entertainment brands are particularly active, with notable first stores opening in Beijing, such as Armani Coffee and POOPOSUPER [4] - Independent shops in traditional hutongs are gaining popularity among brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [4] Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued support for traditional brands and cultural enterprises, with policies being introduced to promote physical bookstores [5] - Future projects are expected to increasingly incorporate cultural elements, creating distinctive commercial spaces [5] Key Market Indicators - The average rent for prime retail space in Beijing is projected at ¥2,130 per square meter per month, with a vacancy rate of 10.6% [11] - The report provides detailed statistics on various commercial districts, highlighting their stock, vacancy rates, and rental price ranges [11] Major Upcoming Projects - Several significant projects are set to open in 2025, including Beijing Shangde Yintai City and Wangfujing WellTown, contributing to the retail landscape [13]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a key strategy for economic growth in the face of external uncertainties [4][7] - The report outlines economic development targets for 2025, including a GDP growth rate of around 5%, an urban unemployment rate of approximately 5.5%, and a consumer price index (CPI) increase of about 2% [5][6] - The government plans to issue 300 billion yuan in special bonds to support the replacement of consumer goods, indicating a strong push towards stimulating consumer spending [11] - The report highlights the need for continued support for the real estate market to stabilize expectations and release wealth effects, with a focus on local government initiatives to acquire and repurpose existing properties [23][24] Summary by Sections Economic Development Goals - The 2025 targets include a GDP growth rate of around 5%, urban unemployment at 5.5%, and a CPI increase of about 2% [5][6] - The fiscal deficit is projected at 4% of GDP, with a total deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan [5] Consumption and Investment - The government prioritizes consumption as a means to drive economic growth, with measures introduced to stimulate domestic demand [7][12] - The retail market is expected to benefit from government policies aimed at enhancing consumer spending, with significant growth in categories like home appliances and electronics [11][12] Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes the need for policies to stabilize the real estate market, including the acquisition of existing properties and the promotion of urban renewal projects [23][24] - Local governments are expected to play a crucial role in revitalizing the real estate sector through special bonds and land acquisition initiatives [24][25] Technological Innovation and New Industries - The report outlines a commitment to fostering technological innovation and the development of modern service industries, with a focus on emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy and biomanufacturing [17][18] - The growth of the low-altitude economy is projected to reach 850 billion yuan by 2025, with an annual growth rate exceeding 30% [17] Foreign Investment - The government aims to encourage foreign investment in sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education, reflecting a broader strategy to enhance openness and collaboration with international markets [31] Environmental Sustainability - The report highlights the importance of transitioning to a green economy, with a focus on reducing carbon emissions and promoting sustainable development practices [32]

Strategic Background - Urban development is a key engine for China's economic and social progress, transitioning from large-scale construction to quality improvement and structural adjustment[10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" and 2035 vision emphasize promoting high-quality urban development, shifting focus from quantity to quality[10] Necessity of High-Quality Development - Urbanization has led to increased economic growth but also issues like resource waste and environmental pollution, necessitating a shift to high-quality urban development[11] - High-quality urban development aims to optimize resource allocation and meet rising public demands for livable environments and quality public services[11] Main Directions for High-Quality Development - **Livable Cities**: Focus on enhancing living quality through balanced public service distribution and improved infrastructure[13] - **Innovative Cities**: Emphasize creating sustainable ecosystems by attracting high-quality talent and optimizing innovation environments[15] - **Resilient Cities**: Enhance emergency management and risk resilience, especially in response to crises like pandemics[16] - **Smart Cities**: Leverage digital management and smart facilities to improve governance efficiency[17] - **Green Cities**: Promote low-carbon development to achieve carbon neutrality goals[18] - **Cultural Cities**: Protect cultural heritage while innovatively utilizing cultural resources[19] Challenges and Opportunities - Challenges include resource integration difficulties, lack of multi-stakeholder collaboration, and insufficient innovation capabilities in many cities[21] - Opportunities arise from improved policy environments and technological advancements, particularly in AI and IoT, which can enhance urban management and service delivery[22] Policy Background - The transition from incremental development to stock renovation is highlighted, with a focus on updating aging infrastructure to meet public needs[27] - A series of national policies since 2014 have emphasized the importance of urban renewal, culminating in its inclusion as a major project in the "14th Five-Year Plan"[27] Urban Renewal Models - Urban renewal strategies are evolving from large-scale demolitions to more sustainable, incremental updates, focusing on balancing investment and operational efficiency[33] - Three main models have emerged: government-led, market-led, and multi-stakeholder cooperation, with a trend towards more collaborative approaches[33] Chengzhongcun (Urban Village) Renovation - Urban village renovation is crucial for improving living conditions and requires balancing public and economic interests[53] - Future projects will likely involve state-owned enterprises leading the way, with a focus on attracting social capital to address funding challenges[57]