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中国城市高质量发展白皮书
戴德梁行· 2025-02-27 08:25
中国城市 高质量发展 白皮书 新征程上,城市的战略地位和作用 更加凸显。当前,我国城市发展已 经进入城市更新的重要时期,由大 规模增量建设转为存量提质改造和 增量结构调整并重,从"有没有" 转向"好不好",同时也面临着不 少矛盾和挑战。因此,戴德梁行将 推出系列白皮书,将深入讨论城市 高质量发展的方向和发展机遇。 2 戴德梁行 | 城市高质量发展的战略背景 | 05 | | --- | --- | | 城市高质量发展的必要性 | 05 | | 城市高质量发展的主要方向 | 06 | | 未来城市发展的挑战与机遇 | 07 | | 政策背景解读 | 09 | | --- | --- | | 城市更新模式及案例经验 | 11 | | 城中村改造 | 15 | | 未来发展展望 | 17 | | 低空经济 | 19 | | --- | --- | | 储能产业 | 26 | | 城市运营发展背景解读 | 33 | | --- | --- | | 城市运营相关参与主体 | 36 | | 城市运营相关案例研究 | 39 | | 未来发展展望 | 47 | 中国城市高质量发展白皮书 发展背景 01 4 中国城市高质量发展 ...
房地产:2024年第四季度西安写字楼与零售市场概况
戴德梁行· 2025-02-20 07:03
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The macroeconomic overview of Xi'an shows a GDP of 868.6 billion yuan, with a retail sales total of 363.8 billion yuan, indicating a significant economic activity in the region [2][3][5] - The population of Xi'an at the end of 2023 is reported to be 13.1 million, which supports the consumer market potential [6][7] - The tertiary industry growth rate in Xi'an is 3.3%, which is lower compared to other cities like Qingdao (4.5%) and Tianjin (5.4%) [9] - Real estate development investment growth in Xi'an is at 9.3%, contrasting sharply with negative growth rates in other cities such as Qingdao (-12.2%) and Dalian (-20.6%) [13] Economic Indicators - Xi'an's per capita disposable income for urban residents is 40,967 yuan, which is lower than that of Qingdao (51,337 yuan) and Tianjin (46,078 yuan) [11] - The retail market in Xi'an is characterized by a total stock of 7,634,683 square meters, with an average rent of 237.01 yuan per square meter per month and a vacancy rate of 15.9% [39] - The office market in Xi'an has a total stock of 1,924,453 square meters, with a net absorption of 41,360 square meters and a vacancy rate of 21.27% [23] Market Trends - The report indicates a trend of increasing supply in the retail market, with 313,000 square meters added in the current year, while the net absorption remains positive at 294,100 square meters [39] - The office market is experiencing a stable rental environment, with average rents showing slight fluctuations but maintaining a relatively high occupancy rate [23][39] - The overall economic indicators suggest a mixed outlook for the Xi'an market, with growth in certain sectors like real estate, while facing challenges in others like retail and office space absorption [12][13][39]
香港旧楼重建的未来机遇
戴德梁行· 2025-02-11 02:36
Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the redevelopment of old buildings in Hong Kong, highlighting significant opportunities for developers in this sector [1]. Core Insights - The aging building issue in Hong Kong is severe, with over 10,000 buildings aged over 50 years, necessitating urgent urban renewal efforts [1]. - The Urban Renewal Authority has successfully assisted in the redevelopment of 1,300 buildings over the past 18 years, which is still a small fraction compared to the current stock of old buildings [1]. - The "Yau Ma Tei and Mong Kok" area, covering 212 hectares and involving 3,345 buildings, has over 80% of its buildings aged 30 years or more, indicating a substantial redevelopment opportunity [1]. - The report emphasizes that while redevelopment may not significantly increase land supply, it can improve living conditions in old communities [1]. Summary by Sections Challenges in Old Building Redevelopment - The threshold for applying for compulsory sale has been lowered to 80% ownership for buildings aged over 30 years, encouraging developers to acquire old buildings [6]. - Developers can potentially acquire properties at a lower cost compared to purchasing land directly, presenting a profitable opportunity [6]. Comprehensive Thinking in Urban Renewal - By 2046, it is estimated that there will be 326,000 private residential units aged 70 years or more in Hong Kong, with a significant concentration in the Yau Ma Tei and Mong Kok areas [8]. - The remaining plot ratio in these areas is only 10%, limiting development potential unless height restrictions are relaxed [11]. Involvement of Chinese Developers - Since the amendment of the compulsory sale ordinance in 2010, there has been an increase in private market participation, with major Chinese developers like Vanke and Country Garden actively acquiring old buildings [13]. - The scarcity of land in urban areas has led developers to focus on acquiring old buildings as a means to increase land reserves [13]. Old Building Acquisition Trends - In 2018, there were 39 cases of compulsory sale applications, a 1.6 times increase from 2017, indicating a growing trend in old building redevelopment [15]. - The report notes that smaller developers are finding opportunities in acquiring old buildings, especially as larger land parcels become less accessible [15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued interest from mainland property groups in acquiring old buildings due to lower investment costs compared to government land tenders [22]. - The demand for professional services related to valuation and expert reports for compulsory sales is expected to remain strong as developers seek to navigate the complexities of the process [22].
北京零售市场2024第三季度
戴德梁行· 2025-02-10 02:15
MARKETBEAT 北京 市场 2024 年 市场展² 截至2024年三季度,北京零售市场年内共迎来8个零售项目的入市,为市场带来 75.6万平方米的优质零售空间,四季度仍将有至少三个来自非核心区域的优质项 目计划开业,且均为10万平米以上的大体量项目,若均能如期入市,全年新增供 应将超过120万平方米,为近十年来最高。未来在北京建设国际消费中心城市的 推动下,零售市场各项支持政策也将得到有效落实,各商圈及项目升级改造进程 也将进一步加快。 租金 / 空量率 ¥2,700 14% 12% ¥2,500 10% ¥2,300 8% ¥2,100 6% ¥1.900 4% ¥1,700 2% ¥1.500 00/ 2020 2021 2022 2023 2Q 2024 ■平均租金(人民币/平方米/月) ·空置率 历年新增供应及未来供应 200 150 100 50 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F ■ 崇文门 ■其他 ■ 中央商务区 ■ 公主坟 ■ 燕莎 ■ 东二环-朝外 ■亚奥 三星屯 ■ 十里堡-青年路 Better never settles *平均租 ...
北京写字楼市场2024年第三季度
戴德梁行· 2025-02-09 14:35
MARKETBEAT 北京 市场关键指标 巨比 型化 ta => 18.16% 空蓄率 1 35.0 存量(万平方米) 大266.11 相金(人民市/半方米/月 数据来源:戴德梁行研究部 北京经济数据 2024年 2024年 二季度 一季度 ta fir 5.4% 6.0% GDP增速 5.8% 5.4% 第三产业增速 0.1% 0.2% CPI增速 -1.7% 2.0% 房地产开发投资增速 数据来源:北京统计局、穆迪分析、戴德梁行研究部 三季度北京写字楼市场租金仍下行,市场空置则表现平稳 2024年三季度,在"降本增效"和"以价换量"的共识下,业主继续为企业租 户提供更为积极的租赁策略,包括提供更具吸引力的租金,更长的免租期和装修 期。至此,北京写字楼市场租金继续下探。全市租金环比下降4.7%,同比下降 13.5%至每月每平方米人民币266.1元,五大核心商圈环比下降5.1%,同比下降 12.4%至每月每平方米人民币312.8元。在市场租金普降的大背景下,一些企业租 户开始借机寻求性价比更高的楼宇,实现其对办公空间环境和品质的升级。企业 租户的换租策略致使本季度北京写字楼市场全市净吸纳量为2.4万平方米,五 ...
2024年第四季度青岛写字楼与零售市场概况
戴德梁行· 2025-02-09 14:35
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 梁 行 載 德 青岛 写字楼与零售市场概况 2024年第四季度 Better never settles 青岛宏观经济概况 地区生产总值 (亿元) 青岛 12,399 天津 12,674 西安 8,686 沈阳 6,074 大连 6.643 社会消费品零售总额 (亿元) 青岛 4,532 天津 3,946 西安 3,638 沈阳 3,246 大连 1,484 2023年末人口 (百万) 青岛 10.4 天津 13.6 西安 13.1 沈阳 9.2 大连 7.5 第三产业增长率 青岛 4.5% 天津 5.4% 西安 3.3% 沈阳 4.2% 大连 5.1% 城镇居民人均可支配收入 (元) 青岛 51,337 天津 46,078 西安 40,967 沈阳 41,769 大连 42,269 戴德梁行 - 2 主要地块成交情况 | 区域 | 竞得方 | 成交时间 | 土地用途 | 土地面积 (平方米) | 总价 (万元) | 容积率 | 楼面价 (元/平方米) | 地块编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...
中国企业加快“走出去”步伐:走上世界经济舞台
戴德梁行· 2025-02-09 11:58
⚥㕂⟱⚌ 加快饥ⴀ姿⠄ 走上世界经济舞台 大中华区租户研究 2018 年 2 月 2 中国企业加快"走出去"步伐 湡䔶 14/ 摘要 17/ 报告介绍 现在,许多中国企业经过长期 发展,已经步入了世界级大企 业的行列(图 1 和表 1)。 同时,中国企业也奉行"走出 去"的战略,向全球市场扩张。 $ISJT#SPXOF 董事总经理 亚太及大中华区环球企业服务部 "现在,许多中国企业拥有大量可 供其支配的资源,这使它们能够走 向世界,并保证它们的对外投资能 够成功。" 㕃 财富 500 强企业(据国家地区划分) 资料来源:财富杂志,戴德梁行研究部 繠㕂, 26% ⚥㕂, 23% 傈劥 , 10% Ⱖ➭㕂㹻㖑⼓, 6% 岁㕂 , 6% 䗞㕂 , 6% 薉㕂, 5% 榰㡦, 3% 㕂, 3% 蚚Ⱎ , 2% ⸈䭭㣐 , 2% 銯棴暅, 2% ⽪䏞, 1% 䊼銯, 1% 䠑㣐ⵄ, 1% 慌㣐ⵄ❇, 1% ⤜縄倛, 1% 倝⸈㗗 , 1% 榰Ⱙ, 1% 餒㺢 䔂 邍 中国年收入最高的企业排名(根据 2016 年企业收入) 资料来源:财富杂志,戴德梁行研究部 18/ 主要参与者 – 中国企业 – 它们是谁? 112/ 对 ...
中国城市群战略及发展战略深度研究
戴德梁行· 2025-02-09 00:33
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The development of urban agglomerations is crucial for China's economic growth and regional integration, with 19 urban agglomerations identified as key growth areas [13][40] - Urban agglomerations are seen as a response to the challenges of rapid urbanization, including the alleviation of "big city diseases" through the development of metropolitan areas [50][62] - The report emphasizes the importance of coordinated development among large, medium, and small cities to enhance overall urbanization quality [33][64] Summary by Sections 1. International Experience and Chinese Practice - World-class urban agglomerations play a central role in national and regional development, with examples including New York, Tokyo, and London [20][24] - China's urbanization policies have evolved from promoting small towns to focusing on urban agglomerations as the main form of urbanization [28][40] 2. Development Logic of Metropolitan Areas under Urban Agglomeration Strategy - Rapid urbanization has led to negative effects, necessitating the development of metropolitan areas to alleviate urban issues [50][62] - The relationship between metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations is defined, highlighting the need for coordinated development [54][61] 3. Urban Renewal and Livability - Urban renewal efforts aim to enhance livability by relieving some functions of central cities [10][62] - Balancing livability and economic efficiency is a key focus in urban renewal discussions [10] 4. Construction of Multi-level Transportation Systems in Urban Agglomerations - The impact of rail transit and Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) on urban agglomeration development is discussed [6] - Japan's experience in rail transit construction is highlighted as a reference for China [6] 5. Urban-Rural Integration and Industry-City Integration Development - The report outlines the historical development and pathways for urban-rural integration [8] - Characteristics and types of industry-city integration are explored [8] 6. Current Status and Trends of Typical Urban Agglomerations in China - The report focuses on the development planning and strategic positioning of five major urban agglomerations [12] - It provides an analysis of the development trends of urban agglomerations in China [12][40] 7. Planning and Goals for Urban Agglomeration Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the goal of forming a "two horizontal and three vertical" urbanization pattern, emphasizing the importance of urban agglomerations [41][44] - The report notes that urban agglomerations account for over 75% of China's urban population and contribute over 80% of the national GDP [40][41]
中国投资市场信心调查
戴德梁行· 2025-02-09 00:33
DTZ China Insight 中国投资市场信心调查 投资活动放缓 2014 年 1 月 24 日 目录 | 投资额 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 资金来源 | 5 | | 价格、租金和回报率 | 5 | | 展望 | 6 | 作者 聂安达 北亚区研究部主管 +852 2507 0779 andrew.ness@dtz.com 冯国健 亚太区预测部主管 +852 2250 8864 dennis.kk.fung@dtz.com DTZ Research 信心调查发现,受访者认为未来一年中国的投资市场将平稳发展。然而, 调查也显示出大多数受访者预计市场整合将会发生。 其中一个主要的调查结果是开发商和投资者就一系列的问题对中国房地 产业务的影响持有不同的意见(图 1 )。开发商明确地指出中国房地产 热潮还沒有完全消退,投资者则普遍较为保守及非常关注房地产市场的 下行风险。 开发商对前景最为乐观而投资者则较为谨慎。此分歧将进一步限制商业 投资活动的发展,这有可能导致市场缺乏方向或令市场在未来一段时间 内相对平稳。 尽管开发商对前景普遍较为乐观,市场开始忧虑政策将会阻碍贷款人和 开发商的商业活动。因 ...
腾飞中的武汉物流地产
戴德梁行· 2025-02-09 00:33
目录 | 简介 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 武汉物流市场的发展现状 | 2 | | 市场新变化 | 7 | | 未来市场的预测研判 | 8 | 作者 China Insight 腾飞中的武汉物流地产 高增长蕴酿的机遇和前景 2013 年 11 月 12 日 李孔瑞 华中区研究部主管 +86 20 8510 8209 christal.kr.li@dtz.com 白薇 DTZ 戴德梁行研究部 +86 27 8555 8239 vivian.w.bai@dtz.com 邝伟烘 DTZ 戴德梁行研究部 +86 20 8510 8216 nikko.wh.kuang@dtz.com 联系方式 Andrew Ness 北亚区研究部主管 +852 2507 0779 andrew.ness@dtz.com Hans Vrensen 全球研究部主管 +44 (0) 20 3296 2159 hans.vrensen@dtz.com DTZ Research Hh 近年来刺激内需已替代出口和固定资产投资而成为中国国民经济发展 的主要推动力,直接催生了物流行业的高速发展。数据显示,从 2006 年至 2012年 ...