Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Bank of China (BOC), Postal Savings Bank of China (PSBC), and China Construction Bank (CCB) with target prices of Rmb 6.73/HK$ 5.00, Rmb 6.82/HK$ 5.59, and Rmb 11.14/HK$ 7.91 respectively [24][27][28] Core Insights - Four large state-owned banks in China announced a total capital raise of Rmb 520 billion, with Rmb 500 billion from the Ministry of Finance and Rmb 20 billion from other state-owned shareholders [1] - The capital injection will increase the average shareholding of the Ministry of Finance and Central Huijin Investment by 5 percentage points to 56% [1] - The capital replenishment is expected to be completed through A-share private placements by the end of 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Capital Raise Details - The capital raise will be evenly distributed among BOC and PSBC, with each bank raising approximately Rmb 120 billion [3] - The new shares will be issued at a price below 1x book value, representing a 16% premium over recent trading prices [3] - New shares as a percentage of outstanding shares post-recapitalization for BOC and PSBC will be 8% and 17% respectively [4] Capital Adequacy - The CET1 ratio for BOC and PSBC is projected to increase by 86 basis points and 151 basis points respectively [4] - The report indicates that to maintain dividend per share (DPS) at 2024 levels, dividend payout ratios would need to rise to 31-36% [5] Growth Projections - The announced capital raise, along with increased dividend payouts, would allow for a 7.9-9.3% growth in risk-weighted assets (RWA) assuming unchanged density [5] - The report anticipates a downward trend in RWA density, which would enable more asset growth without proportionally higher capital consumption [15] Comparative Analysis - The report notes that Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) were excluded from the announced capital injections, with estimates suggesting they may require Rmb 150 billion each for capital support [18][19] - The average CET1 ratio increase for participating banks is expected to be 1.03 percentage points [21]

GS China Economic Outlook Leaning Against the Wind (逆风前行) March 2025 Note: Forecast numbers reflect data available as of 21 March. Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research. Global Investment Research 2 Key China Macro Views Hui Shan Chief China Economist Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. +852-2978-6634 Hui.Shan@gs.com Lisheng Wang China Economist Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. +852-3966-4004 Lisheng.Wang@gs.com Xinquan Chen China Economist Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. +852-2978-2418 Xinquan.Chen@gs ...

27 March 2025 | 12:00AM HKT WuXi Biologics (2269.HK) Earnings Review: 2H24 earnings slightly higher than GSe; guided 12-15% revenue growth for FY25 and improving margin | 2269.HK | | --- | | 12m Price Target: HK$23.40 | | Price: HK$26.20 | | Downside: 10.7% | 2H24 revenue reached Rmb10.1bn (vs GSe Rmb9.70bn or VA consensus Rmb9.43bn), +18.3% y/y, that came at higher end of the previous guidance (FY24 +9.6% y/y, vs guidance of +5%-10% y/y), mainly attributable to the robust growth from WuXi XDC (+111% in 2H) ...

A Further Increase in Our Tariff Assumptions (Walker / Phillips / Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 30 March 2025 | 4:52PM EDT US Economics Analyst David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jessica Ri ...

30 March 2025 | 7:27PM EDT US Equity Views Higher tariffs and weaker growth reduce our earnings estimates and S&P 500 return forecasts David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik.jayachandran@gs.com Goldman Sachs & ...

4月还将标志着美联储资产负债表缩减的进一步放缓。我们的利率策略师预计，量化紧缩（即允许债券到期而不将 收益再投资）将在2025年第三季度末结束。虽然量化紧缩的缩减应会缓解股票风险溢价的压力，但在我们的股票 风险溢价（ERP）模型中，增长预期的信号强度是美联储资产负债表规模的三倍。我们的利率策略师预计，10年期 美国国债名义收益率到年底将维持在4.35%，与当前水平相近。 我们的基线预测是，标准普尔500指数在未来三个月将持平，但随着经济和收益持续增长，到年底将上涨11%。对 于股市的近期走势而言，对这一增长前景的调整将比收益率的变化更为重要。标准普尔500指数的回报率通常对股 市对经济增长的定价变化比对实际收益率的变化更为敏感，而且这种关系最近有所加强。除了关税，周五的就业 报告将是股票投资者的关键信号。 一些对利率敏感的股票的表现最近与利率走势出现了背离。长期股票，如我们的长期和非盈利科技篮子股票，在 股市抛售期间表现滞后。相比之下，像房地产这样的 "债券替代品" 表现优于大盘。在本报告中，我们对长期 和短期篮子进行了重新平衡（成分股见图表14和图表15）。 与客户的对话：4月政策调整对股市的影响 随着20 ...

26 March 2025 | 7:11AM HKT China Musings Global marketing feedback: China is back We have held extensive meetings with investors in Asia, the US, and Europe in the past month to discuss views and ideas on Chinese equities. We summarize clients' feedback and FAQs, and our latest market thoughts as follows: Kinger Lau, CFA +852-2978-1224 | kinger.lau@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. Timothy Moe, CFA +65-6889-1199 | timothy.moe@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Si Fu, Ph.D. +852-2978-0200 | si.fu@gs.com G ...

26 March 2025 | 8:49PM GMT Precious Analyst Gold: Raising Our End-2025 Forecast to $3,300; Top 10 Questions Lina Thomas +44(20)7051-3062 | lina.thomas@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bcb9a8 ...

25 March 2025 | 7:37PM EDT US Daily: How Much Have Inflation Expectations Increased? (Peng) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a structurally bullish outlook on copper prices, forecasting a price target of $10,200 per ton for Q4 2025, driven by strong electrification demand, China stimulus, and slower mine supply growth [4][10]. Core Insights - The LME copper price briefly traded above $10,000 per ton on March 20, before retreating to under $9,850 per ton, but remains up 12% year-to-date [4]. - The recent strength in LME copper prices is attributed to two main factors: the impact of Section 232 on US copper tariffs and a positive shift in sentiment regarding China's economic outlook [4]. - The report anticipates a market deficit of 180,000 tons by 2025, with stockpiling in the US making the global market appear tighter [4]. - China's State Reserve Bureau (SRB) plans to increase copper stockpiles in 2025, which is seen as a defensive measure against potential shortages rather than opportunistic buying [4]. Summary by Sections - **Price Trends**: The LME copper price has shown volatility, with a significant increase driven by tariff-related factors and positive sentiment from China [4][10]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report highlights the influence of US trade policy updates on copper prices, indicating potential risks from upcoming announcements [4]. - **Forecasts**: The report outlines a bullish price forecast for copper, with specific quarterly targets leading up to 2026, reflecting expectations of strong demand and supply constraints [10].