7 April 2025 | 6:30AM BST GOAL Kickstart Risk Appetite collapse - dissecting the sell-off post the US tariff announcement Last week, President Trump announced a "reciprocal" tariff policy with an average tariff rate of 18.2%. Chinese policymakers replied with a broad set of countermeasures including a 34pp tariff increase on all US exports. The EU Foreign Council on Trade is likely to present a comprehensive response to US tariffs, too. The market reaction to the US reciprocal tariff has been sharp. The S&P ...

7 April 2025 | 6:00AM CEST Around the world in 80 charts Trade war impacts Positive Q1 trade volume growth, set to decline from here Q1 freight volume data remained fairly strong, with Ocean volumes up c.5% on our readings for Jan/Feb, and China port volumes up 10%yoy, while air cargo is up low single digits following a strong Q4 peak. However, we believe a lot of this reflects frontloading of US imports as we have highlighted in prior editions. As US tariff increases are set to take effect in April (and po ...

2025年4月6日 | 9:03AM HKT 大中华区科技: 关税 - 下调30家企业的盈利预测和目标价格 美国总统特朗普于4月2日签署行政令，对180多个国家加征10%至50%的额外关税 （新闻链接，高盛宏观经济研究报告）。我们预计成本上升可能导致：(1) 需求走弱： 品牌客户通过提高售价将关税转嫁给终端消费者，导致出货量或收入下降；(2) 利润率 承压：品牌客户从其他方面节省成本，致使产品规格升级放缓（这也可能导致需求走 弱）或挤压供应链利润率。我们分析了所覆盖企业，并将30家企业的盈利预测下调了 0.1%至9%，将目标价下调了0.2%至9%，从而反映关税影响。 关税对不同产品板块的影响： 在本报告中，我们重点列出了大中华区科技企业的美国业务收入占比（图表 1）、各 地区产能分布（图表 1）以及30家企业的盈利预测和目标价格调整。更多分析请参见 报告：GC Tech: Tariffs announced on Mexico/ China /Canada。 盈利预测调整框架：(1) 美国终端市场占比：我们估测每家企业最终产品在美国市场上 的收入占比：AI服务器供应链、美国品牌（如苹果、惠普、戴尔）和低地球轨 ...

摘要 问答 高盛：美国关税对亚洲经济的影响：增长、通胀和市场反应 20250403 白宫最近宣布征收关税将对亚洲产生哪些广泛影响？ 白宫最近宣布的关税是近一个世纪以来关税的最大幅度增长，从亚洲的角度来 看，情况比预期的要糟糕。除了遵守与加拿大和墨西哥签署的 USMCA 贸易协定 的国家外，美国政府将对所有国家征收 10% 的关税。此外，关税将根据外国对 美国的贸易顺差计算，这意味着顺差越大，关税就越高。与其他地区相比，亚 洲经济体往往对美国拥有巨大的贸易顺差，因此这些关税对亚洲经济体的打击 更大。虽然大多数人预计关税范围可能在 10-20%，但加拿大和墨西哥面临的关 税低于预期，合规贸易实际上为零。按美国进口加权后，新的平均关税税率增 加了 18.3%，但由于产品排除，实际税率可能在 12.6% 左右。钢铁、铝、汽车、 半导体和药品等某些产品类别有特定的现有关税或即将实施的关税，不会立即 受到这一新公告的影响。例如，中国在今年早些时候已经征收了 20% 的关税， 现在又面临额外的关税。总而言之，除加拿大和墨西哥外，所有国家的关税下 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V：shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海 ...

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Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC 3 April 2025 | 11:03PM EDT Commodity Comment: Reciprocal Tariffs: Oil Pressure, Gold Support Samantha Dart +1(212)357-9428 | samantha.dart@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Laura Cyr +1(212)934-1001 | laura.x.cyr@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Callum Bruce, CFA +1(212)902-3053 | callum.bruce@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Eoin Dinsmore +65-6889-2401 | eoin.dinsmore@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)44 ...

Oil Comment: Reducing Our Price Forecast and Dropping Our Range as Downside Risks Realize Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Callum Bruce, CFA +1(212)902-3053 | callum.bruce@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ephraim Sutherland +1(972)368-0395 | 3 April 2025 | 8:32PM EDT ephraim.sutherland@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in ...

4 April 2025 | 5:59PM EDT US Weekly Kickstart What to watch during the 1Q 2025 earnings season David J. Kostin +1(212)902-6781 | david.kostin@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ben Snider +1(212)357-1744 | ben.snider@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ryan Hammond +1(212)902-5625 | ryan.hammond@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Jenny Ma +1(212)357-5775 | jenny.ma@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daniel Chavez +1(212)357-7657 | daniel.chavez@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Kartik Jayachandran +1(212)855-7744 | kartik.jaya ...

4 April 2025 | 10:51AM EDT Weekly Fund Flows How Brief is the Relief? Global fund flows, week ending April 2 | | | Global Fund Flows Summary | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Millions USD | | % AUM | | | | 4wk sum | 2-Apr | 4wk avg | 2-Apr | | Equity | 33,793 | 2,143 | 0.04 | 0.01 | | Fixed Income | 25,546 | 9,932 | 0.08 | 0.12 | | of which: EM | -1,407 | 1,163 | -0.07 | 0.23 | | Money Markets | 4,821 | 22,536 | 0.01 | 0.23 | | FX Flows* | 23,204 | 11,987 | 0.05 | 0.10 | *Cross-border fund flows, ex ...

Investment Rating - The report highlights a median forward 12-month P/E of 15X for China internet companies, compared to 22X for US counterparts, indicating a potential undervaluation in the sector [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes a shift in focus from AI infrastructure to AI applications, with expectations for continued investor interest driven by upcoming model launches and AI agents [2][11]. - Key stock ideas are categorized by mega-cap and large/SMID companies, with notable mentions including JD at 9X 2025 P/E and PDD at 10X 2025 P/E, both identified as solid growth businesses still within 'value' territory [1][19]. - The report identifies three main investor debates: the current state of the AI trade, the focus on domestic consumption proxies, and navigating geopolitical events affecting companies like TikTok and PDD [11][12]. Summary by Sub-Sectors eCommerce - JD is expected to benefit from a government trade-in program, projecting double-digit growth for Q1 2025, while PDD is anticipated to enjoy easier comparisons later in the year [11][16]. - The competitive landscape is normalizing, with JD's unique 1P model and supply chain positioning it as a major beneficiary [17]. AI and Technology - The report notes a significant increase in AI-related capex investments among hyperscalers, with a projected 26% year-over-year growth in 2025 [16]. - The race to develop consumer-facing AI applications is ongoing, with ByteDance leading the way with 32 AI applications launched in the past year [13]. Gaming - The gaming segment is described as relatively healthy, with innovative gameplay enhancing pricing power and an increasing adoption of AI applications in game development [16]. Local Services and Mobility - Meituan is highlighted as a dominant player in food delivery, with stable EBIT margins expected in Q1 2025 [18]. - Full Truck Alliance is noted for its strong order volume growth in freight matching [18]. Data Centers and Cloud - The demand for data centers is entering a new expansion cycle, driven by AI training and public cloud client needs [19]. Advertising - The report anticipates improvements in monetization through AI-powered ad tech, with Tencent positioned favorably due to its Weixin ecosystem [19].