1 July 2025 | 2:48AM HKT Taiwan ODM/Brands: 3-month Preview: ASIC AI servers rising trend; rack-level model transition in 2H25; tariff pull-in brings high base We preview 3-month revenues for 10 companies in AI servers / AI PCs supply chain and expect the avg. YoY growth of these 10 companies to come in at +37% / +27% / +18% in June / July / Aug 2025, driven by AI servers ramp up, more new product launches in 2H25 for consumer electronics; however, we also note: (1) rack-level AI servers entering model tran ...

GC Tech: Conant Optical (2276.HK): AI / AR glasses customized lenses with lightness; new capacity expansion to capture growing demand We met Conant Optical's (2276.HK, Not Covered) management in Hong Kong recently. Conant Optical is a leading China resin lenses manufacturer, and is expanding its business from the spectacle lens market to AI / AR glasses to capture a larger addressable market. Overall, management expects to see sustained growth in the company's existing core business, and is positive on the ...

30 June 2025 | 10:11PM BST GOAL Kickstart Dovish and De-escalation - Markets embrace a Goldilocks Backdrop Last week increased expectations of a more dovish Fed (Exhibit 1), de-escalation of Middle East tensions (Exhibit 2) and progress in U.S. trade negotiations (including removal of section 899) supported growth pricing across assets. Our Economists pulled forward their forecast for the next cut to September and reduced their terminal rate forecast to 3-3.25%. Indeed, our PC1 "Global growth" factor improv ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights five key themes impacting the market, including macroeconomic factors, currency dynamics, oil market conditions, and tariff developments [1][2][5][20][29] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Insights - The UK is positioned as a higher-growth, higher-inflation jurisdiction compared to G10 peers, with terminal rates likely settling 100-200 basis points above Europe [2][3] - Business confidence in the UK is at multi-month highs, and there is a deep sovereign bond market with long-term investors under-invested [2][3] Currency Dynamics - The USD may weaken further due to a dovish tilt from the Fed, especially if upcoming labor market data shows weakness [5][6] - The Euro area is experiencing equity inflows, which may lead to a stronger Euro, although the pace could slow if there are no compelling reasons to reallocate from the US [7][8] - The JPY is expected to maintain demand due to recession risks and reduced appeal of US assets, while the INR may lag in appreciation compared to other Asian currencies [9][13] Oil Market Analysis - The risk premium in oil prices has significantly decreased, dropping from over $15 per barrel to just a few dollars, as geopolitical risks have lessened [20][21] - The report forecasts Brent crude oil prices to decline from the current high 60s to around $60 in Q4 and mid-50s by 2026, driven by oversupply [23][24] - Global oil inventories have increased by approximately 1.3 million barrels per day over the last 90 days, supporting the forecast of an oversupplied market [27][28] Tariff Developments - The July 9 tariff deadline is likely to be pushed out, with potential for sectoral tariffs rather than broad increases [29][30] - The report suggests that specific sectors, such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, may face targeted tariffs, but the timing remains uncertain [35][36]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or the specific company, SenseTime Core Insights - The management of SenseTime is optimistic about the increasing demand for generative AI solutions from enterprise clients, emphasizing their capability to deliver a comprehensive one-stop solution that includes infrastructure, software migration services, foundational models, and applications [1][4][7] - SenseTime's generative AI products have shown triple-digit year-over-year growth in 2024, contributing 64% to the total revenue, indicating strong market traction [4][8] - The company is also expanding its generative AI applications, targeting various sectors including productivity tools and interactive AI tools, with significant engagement metrics reported [8][9] Summary by Sections Generative AI Solutions - SenseTime is positioned to provide a complete generative AI solution, from infrastructure to foundational models and applications, which is crucial for enterprise clients looking to implement AI effectively [1][4][7] - The company has developed an in-house large-scale AI data center (AIDC) in Shanghai, enhancing its operational capabilities and software migration processes [7] Market Engagement - SenseTime's generative AI applications have penetrated major enterprises such as Kingsoft Office, China Mobile, and Lenovo, with daily API calls exceeding 3.5 billion, showcasing the high demand for their tools [8] - The company has also launched multiple AI interactive tools, achieving high engagement and conversion rates, indicating successful commercialization strategies [8] Automotive Solutions - In 2024, SenseTime's automotive solutions empowered 42 new car models, and the company is collaborating with major automotive manufacturers to deploy advanced AI functionalities [9] - The expectation is set for mass production of their intelligent driving solutions on NVIDIA's Thor platform by the end of 2025, reflecting a strong pipeline for future growth in the automotive sector [9]

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 29 June 2025 | 3:25PM HKT China Resources Pharmaceuticals (3320.HK): China Healthcare Corporate Day 2025 — Key Takeaways: Soft growth in 1H amid Presenter: Yulin Chen - Head of Investor Relations Bottom line: Management noted soft growth in 1H due to challenging industry environment and toned down previous guidance of double-digit y/y sales growth for 2025 pending recovery situation in 2H. Cash collection remained under pressure. Key Takeaways Soft growth in 1H: management to ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha 29 June 2025 | 7:20PM BRT Global Metals & Mining: Takeaways from GS Global Copper Week 2025 +55(11)3371-4580 | marcio.farid@gs.com Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. Matt Greene +44(20)7051-0489 | matt.greene@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Mike Harris +1(713)654-8481 | mike.harris@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Emerson Vieira +55(11)3372-0256 | emerson.vieira@gs.com Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A. Henrique Marques +55(11)3371-0778 | henrique.marques@gs.com Goldman Sachs ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Onshore clients have become less bearish on China's near-term growth outlook, with expectations for RMB appreciation against USD and a belief that exports may be more resilient than previously feared [1][2] - Clients express skepticism regarding incremental policy easing, viewing the current easing mode as reactive rather than preemptive, and anticipate further fiscal expansion in H2 to stabilize growth [2][10] - Concerns about US-China tariff negotiations remain, with clients expressing low conviction in potential outcomes and expecting tariffs to remain at current levels for the rest of the year [3][8] Summary by Sections 1. Near-term Growth Outlook - Onshore clients have adjusted their views to be less negative about China's growth, noting resilience in macro data and some bargaining power in trade negotiations [2] - Clients believe that solid GDP growth in H1 may reduce the urgency for significant policy stimulus, although further fiscal measures are still deemed necessary [2][10] 2. US-China Tariff Relations - Clients show low conviction regarding the future of US-China tariffs, with expectations that current tariffs (around 39%) may persist [3][8] - The complexity of potential trade deals is acknowledged, with clients anticipating that any agreement would be more complicated than previous arrangements [3] 3. Exports, Consumption, and Inflation - While strong exports are not seen as sustainable, clients expect some resilience in H2, with concerns about the property sector and PPI deflation remaining [9] - The report forecasts CPI at 0.0% and PPI at -2.4% for 2025, with expectations for home prices in top-tier cities to stabilize by H2 2026 [9] 4. Triggers for Policy Easing - Clients identify potential triggers for policy easing, including rising youth unemployment, falling home prices, and significant declines in durable goods sales [10] - There is a belief that some pro-growth policies may not yet be fully priced in for the remainder of the year [10] 5. RMB and Interest Rates - Onshore clients expect further RMB appreciation against USD, with forecasts of USDCNY at 7.1/7.0/6.9 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months [12] - Clients anticipate that China rates will remain low for an extended period, with a wide interest rate differential between China and the US [12] 6. Onshore vs Offshore Client Perspectives - Differences in perspectives are noted, with onshore clients focusing more on stabilizing the property sector and improving local policy implementation, while offshore clients emphasize signals from policy meetings [13] - Both groups see more upside than downside for China equity and RMB, viewing Q3 as a critical period for market developments [13]

25 June 2025 | 8:38PM CST TSMC (2330.TW) Growth outlook further reinforced by easing concern on AI order cuts and growing CoWoS adoption; reiterate Buy (on CL); TP to NT$1,210 | 2330.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$1,210.00 | Price: NT$1,070.00 | Upside: 13.1% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TSM | 12m Price Target: $242.00 | Price: $220.09 | Upside: 10.0% | We are raising our earnings forecast for TSMC by 2-6% for 2025-2027E as we raise our 1) wafer revenue forecast for 3nm/5nm, partially to factor in our easing co ...

30 June 2025 | 12:05AM EDT Circle Internet Group (CRCL) A unique asset in the crypto ecosystem, with a healthy growth outlook, although valuation appears elevated; initiate at Neutral CRCL 12m Price Target: $83.00 Price: $180.43 Downside: 54.0% We initiate coverage of stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group (CRCL) with a Neutral rating and an $83 12-month price target, based on 60.0x Q5-Q8 adjusted earnings, implying 54% downside. CRCL is a unique asset in the public markets, as the only pure play crypto-na ...