2024年8月12日 | 9:11AM CST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 宏发股份 (600885.SS): 2024年二季度业绩符合预期，汽 车继电器业务表现好于预期，2024年公司指引上调；买入 宏发股份在8月8日盘后公布的2024年二季度业绩显示，公司实现收入/毛利/EBIT/净利 润人民币37.78亿/13.09亿/6.76亿/4.88亿元（同比+11%/+7%/+1%/+28%），较我们 的预测高4%/低1%/高4%/高14%。剔除2023年二季度非经常性项目（远期外汇合约公 允价值变动损失人民币1.32亿元）的基数因素影响后，2024年二季度净利润同比下降 6%。总体而言，公司已将2024年收入指引从同比增长7-13%上调至目前的同比增长 10-15%。我们预计公司收入将同比增长15%，处于指引区间高端，得益于强劲的订单 势头（目前在手订单为2-3个月，而生产周期为1个月，2024年上半年产能利用率回升 至80-85%，而2023年为70%）。我们预计：1) 国内电力继电器招标强劲，2024年下 半年收入确认潜在走强；2) 高压直流继电器收入将保持增长势头； ...

2024年8月5日 | 7:59PM EDT 明好于预期（实现每股盈利同比增长11%，而预期为9%），因为销售收入和利润率均 高于预期。 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 美股观点 对最近市场下挫的思考 (摘要) | | | 过去三天，由于投资者对美国经济增长持久性的担忧弥漫在金融市场，标普500指数 下跌了 6 ...

2024年8月7日 | 3:45PM CST 2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 福耀玻璃 (600660.SS/3606.HK) 2Q24业绩分析：领先的销量增长、均价改善以 及利润率上升推动业绩大幅好于预期；买入 福耀玻璃公布的2024年二季度业绩大幅超出我们和市场的预测（请参见我们基于业绩 快报的简要分析）。福耀玻璃表示，显著超预期的业绩表现主要得益于销量增速领 先、均价提升和利润率提高，我们认为这些因素在未来的经营中都具有可持续性。我 们在本文中具体分析了管理层在业绩说明会上阐述的四大利好因素，我们认为它们也 为持续的业务扩张奠定了基础：1）美国工厂最新情况：管理层重申调查对象是第三方 劳务公司，而非福耀美国，管理层认为福耀在美国运营合规，遵守当地法律法规；因 此，其扩大美国生产的业务战略保持不变；2）销量增长领先，福耀玻璃2024年上半 年汽车玻璃销量同比增长16%，而全球汽车销量同比增速不到1%；管理层预计日后将 延续类似的增长势头；3）销售均价提升符合预期，福耀玻璃销售均价同比上涨 8.3%，管理层表示有清晰的可预见性显示未来5年均价有望同比上涨7%-8%；4）国内 ...

2131d4eaf4cb4d50b1d51c8af07b64b4 九阳股份 (002242.SZ): 数据更新：小幅调整预测 2024年8月6日 | 3:11PM CST | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 我们将 2024-26 年每股盈利预测微调 1-2% ，以反映最新的行业趋势（包括家电行业追 | 证券研究报告 | | 踪和苏泊尔业绩快报）。我们的12个月目标价格仍为人民币 9.4 元，仍基于 15 倍的退出 | Research \| Equity | | 市盈率乘以 2026 年预期每股盈利并以 9.5% 的股权成本贴现回 2025 年（未作调整）。 我们对九阳股份 ...

Industry Overview - The report focuses on seven key industries in China that contribute 22% to GDP growth, with five industries currently operating at overcapacity, leading to zero or negative cash margins for over 50% of their capacity [1] - The industries analyzed include solar modules, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, power semiconductors (IGBT), construction machinery, air conditioners, and steel [5][6] - China's global supply share in these industries ranges from 66% to 86%, with significant export growth observed from 2020 to 2023, particularly in lithium batteries (720% growth) and electric vehicles (670% growth) [8][22] Supply-Demand Imbalance - Five out of the seven industries have China's capacity exceeding global demand, with solar modules at 200% and lithium batteries at 150% of global demand [10][21] - Capacity utilization rates in 2023 ranged from 30% to 87%, with solar modules at 44% and electric vehicles at 54% [8][21] - Over 50% of the supply in most industries operated at zero or negative cash margins in Q1 2024, with solar modules and steel being the worst performers [31][37] Cyclical Inflection Points - The report identifies solar modules and lithium batteries as industries closest to a cyclical inflection point due to negative cash margins and reduced capex plans, while electric vehicles and power semiconductors are further away [1][11] - Capex revisions over the past 12 months show significant cuts in lithium batteries (-41% for 2024E) and solar modules (-5% for 2024E), while power semiconductors saw a 130% increase in capex plans [33][37] - The tipping point for capex adjustments is expected when over 50% of the supply is in net debt and EBITDA interest coverage falls below 5x, with solar modules and lithium batteries likely to reach this point sooner [37][39] Global Market Impact - China's share in ex-China markets is expected to stagnate or decline, with solar modules and lithium batteries potentially losing 4-19% of their market share by 2028 [42][43] - Chinese producers are increasingly building capacity outside China, with lithium batteries and electric vehicles leading this trend, particularly in the US and Europe [40][43] - Trade tensions, particularly with the US and EU, pose risks to China's exports, with 40-60% of solar modules, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles exported to these regions [24][26] Industry-Specific Insights - **Solar Modules**: China's capacity is 200% of global demand, with a 46% price decline in Q1 2024. The industry is expected to see a cyclical bottom by 2025, with one-third of capacity likely to shut down [66][67] - **Electric Vehicles**: China's capacity is 120% of global demand, with 42% of exports going to the US and EU. The industry is not yet at a tipping point, with 50% of firms still generating positive cash margins [71][72] - **Lithium Batteries**: China's capacity is 150% of global demand, with a 41% capex cut for 2024E. The industry is close to a tipping point, with significant consolidation potential [11][33] - **Power Semiconductors (IGBT)**: Capex plans have increased by 130% for 2024E, but the industry is 2-3 years away from a cyclical inflection point due to strong demand and high capex [33][37] - **Steel, Construction Machinery, and Air Conditioners**: These industries are expected to remain structurally oversupplied, with limited cyclical improvements [11][45]

1公众学： 本本论委 24 July 2024 | 6:20PM BST The EM Trader Leaning Defensive into H2 ■ Paradise Delayed for EM assets? Coming into this year, we argued that EM_ assets, having weathered the storm of higher US rates, a stronger Dollar and weak China activity, could deliver more balanced positive returns as the global macro weather changed for the better. However, our expectations of a more convergent growth outlook and non-recessionary cuts has at least been delayed if not denied altogether. Whereas US growth has sl ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Goldman Sachs Understanding US Economic Statistics Edward F. McKelvey, Editor 高盛 理解美国经济统计 中文版 翻译：音十 更多一手调研纪要和研报数据加V：shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 音十译 neozhh@hotmail.com 序言: 在面对越来越复杂的金融环境面前，普通投资者缺乏对整体宏观经济层面的理解。美国 作为世界经济最重要的一环，其经济基本面影响着全球经济的一举一动。当某个关键经济指 标发布时，可以对资本市场造成很大的波动，甚至是趋势的改变。 美国经济基本面的一切完全由经济数据所反映，作为世界上统计机制最完善，最详细的 国家，美国经济数据的复杂程度远非一般人所能了解。美国政府有关部门和其他商业机构， 每月发布几百份数据报告，在多达数十万条的经济指标面前，哪些数据扮演什么样的角色对 于理解美国经济有着很大的作用。 译者发现《高盛：理解美国经济统计数据》对于美国经济数据有着一个较好的归纳。将 其中核心经济指标的发布源、发 ...

22 July 2024 | 6:28PM BST 公众平：永木论委 Precious Analyst China's Structurally Resilient Gold Demand ■ The gold price set a new all-time high of $2,483/toz on Wednesday (Julys17) as expected Fed cuts are poised to bring Western capital back into:the gold market. Following rising interest from Western investors, and ounanalysis of structurally higher demand from central banks, we dive into the third major component of global gold demand: Chinese households. Jaan Struyyen man Sachs & Co. LLC ■ Physical Demand Domin ...

16 July 2024 2 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 6437aaa8de6c4611b8ac8998231c2d63 Goldman Sachs Baidu.com Inc. (BIDU) that a global fleet of a few million commercial AVs used for rideshare could be on the road in 2030. China now has c. 4-5mn ridehailing cars total in operation; for illustrative purposes, if we assume 5% Robotaxi penetration in the long term and similar pricing to normal taxis, this would translate to RMB35bn/US$5bn in TAM size. Apart from Robotaxi, Baidu is likely to see near term softness in ad ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published 14 May, 2024 [9 pages] Global Markets Daily: Is AI Already Boosting US Power Demand? (Wei/Struyven/Dart) n To see where and how data centers show up in actual US power data, we base our analysis on the fact that the growth of US data centers has been highly concentrated in Virginia, and that it shows up within commercial power consumption data. We document a sharp, 37% rise in commercial power consumption ...