高盛：2035 年油价及俄乌局势影响：研究和交易视角 20251204 摘要 市场当前原油供给过剩，全球可见库存增加约 4 亿桶，日均增加 180 万 桶，预计需通过价格下降来平衡，除非出现重大供给中断或 OPEC 大幅 减产。 俄乌冲突谈判受战场局势稳定和外部参与者影响，美国推动和解意愿增 强，俄罗斯外部经常账户盈余减少，但安全保证和北约扩张仍是关键谈 判领域。 基本预测下，若对俄制裁持续，2026 年布伦特原油价格预计在 52-56 美元/桶，俄罗斯石油产量将从 1,000 万桶/日降至 2027 年的 900 万桶/ 日。若达成和平协议并取消制裁，俄罗斯产量可能恢复至 1,100 万桶/日 以上，或导致油价下降。 市场虽呈现小多头状态，但未充分定价地缘政治风险，尤其是俄乌冲突 潜在解决方案。普京的决策仍可能改变局势，需持续关注地缘政治动态 对市场的影响。 Q&A 2026 年及以后的油价预测是什么？ 在短期内，预计所有油价将进一步下降，因为目前正处于大规模供给浪潮的中 间阶段。预计布伦特和 WTI 原油价格在 2026 年的平均价格为 56 美元。由于 供给浪潮可能在 2026 年结束，预计油价将从 2 ...

对大宗商品持中性态度，但看好黄金，预计 2026 年底价格将达到每盎 司 4,900 美元。三季度 A 股盈利增长优于海外上市中资股，但后者受外 卖大战影响盈利下滑。 中证指数调整成分股，预计产生超过 230 亿美元被动资金流动，科技、 硬件、半导体等行业或迎来资金流入，银行、营销消费等行业或面临资 金流出。 Q&A 中国政府在 2027 年推出的消费方案预计将产生 3 万亿级别的新消费行业和热 点。该方案的具体内容是什么？对中国宏观经济有何影响？ 中国政府计划在 2027 年推出一项重大消费方案，目标是创造 3 万亿级别的新 消费行业和热点。该方案旨在打造三个万亿级别的领域和十个千亿级别的消费 热点。具体领域尚未明确，但文件中提到了一些方向，包括绿色产品、农村消 费、休闲运动、健康产业、国潮品牌以及宠物经济等。此外，该方案特别强调 人工智能（AI）赋能，通过 AI 技术提升商品和服务的多样性和质量。 从宏观 经济角度看，这一方案主要侧重于供给侧改革，旨在通过开拓新赛道和提高供 给质量来刺激需求。然而，短期内效果可能不明显，因为目前文件中并未详细 说明具体执行措施或资金支持。因此，中长期来看，该方案有助于扩大 ...

RMB: The debate for 2026 | GS EM Marketstrats ⼈⺠币：2026 年⾛势之争 | ⾼盛新兴市场策略 Given recent RMB appreciation to 7.05 area, there is rising debate on RMB outlook in 2026, and market is split: 1) Some think CNH appreciation will accelerate, on further US-China rate differential narrowing, China's large CA surplus + cheap REER, as well as eased trade uncertainty. 2) Some think RMB will continue this year's appreciation speed, which is not much faster than carry. 3) Others think CNH can serve as funder given weak dome ...

摘要 2025 年中国出口在全球出口中占比大，同比增长约 1%，略高于全球平 均水平，表明中国在全球贸易中仍具重要地位。 美国加征关税后，中国出口转向亚洲内部贸易及东南亚、拉丁美洲、非 洲等新兴市场和欧洲，贸易多元化显著。 美国第四季度销量同比下降 7%，预计冬季降幅可能加快至 10%左右， 主要原因是持续去库存，库存水平较低，若 2026 年美国经济稳定或略 好转，贸易量有望稳定或增长。 苏伊士运河重新开放可能导致吨海里需求减少约 10%，对航运供需平衡 造成冲击，显著影响行业利润。 港口拥堵、生产效率低下和罢工等问题可能部分抵消苏伊士运河重新开 放带来的影响，集装箱船公司面临价格战或理性行为的不确定性。 集装箱船公司可能面临价格战或理性行为之间的不确定性，租船市场将 承担大部分痛苦，行业可能面临业绩大幅下滑甚至亏损。 多元化经营且不完全依赖海运业务的公司受苏伊士运河重新开放的影响 相对较小，抗风险能力更强。 Q&A 中国的贸易数据在最近几个月是否有所增强？ 是的，中国的贸易数据在最近几个月表现出显著增强。今年（2025 年）第四 季度迄今为止，中国的贸易量同比增长了 5%，与之前 9 个月的趋势一致，显 ...

Investment Ratings - Meituan: Buy with a 12-month target price of HK$120 [9] - Kweichow Moutai: Buy with a 12-month target price of Rmb1,691 [18] - Foxconn Industrial Internet: Buy with a 12-month target price of Rmb92.90 [15] - Mitac: Buy with a 12-month target price of NT137 [17] Core Insights - Meituan reported narrower-than-expected losses for Q3 2025, but the market reacted negatively due to anticipated substantial food delivery losses in Q4 [9] - Kweichow Moutai's management expressed optimism about the industry's recovery and noted a positive sales momentum since August [18] - Foxconn Industrial Internet is expected to benefit from the rising trend of ASIC AI servers, with significant revenue growth projected [15] - Mitac showcased its AI server capabilities and is expected to see substantial revenue contributions from this segment in the coming years [17] Summary by Sections Meituan - The company is reframing its bull/bear narratives, focusing on the sustainability of its business moats and the duration of suppressed food delivery user engagement [9] - Adjusted net profit/loss estimates for FY25E-FY27E have been cut, reflecting a cautious outlook [9] Kweichow Moutai - The company has moderated its spirits shipments to align with market demand, resulting in positive sales recovery [18] - An interim dividend payout of Rmb30 billion and a share buyback plan of Rmb1.5-3 billion were approved [18] Foxconn Industrial Internet - The company is positioned to secure a leading market position in AI servers, with a projected 30% contribution to AI server shipments by 2026 [15] - Expected net income growth at a 37% CAGR from 2025-2028 [15] Mitac - The company is capitalizing on the trend of diversifying chipset platforms in AI servers, with strong revenue growth anticipated [17] - Revenue from AI servers is expected to reach 16% in 2026, increasing to 35% by 2028 [17]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral market position for hedge funds, with a high leverage level and significant risk exposure [1][2]. Core Insights - In 2025, only 28% of U.S. mutual funds outperformed their benchmarks, leading to a historical low cash holding of 1.2% as funds chase market returns [1][2]. - Hedge funds maintain a neutral market position but exhibit high leverage, indicating substantial risk exposure [1][2]. - Both hedge funds and mutual funds are underweight in the technology sector due to its high index weight, while the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks (excluding Tesla) remain favored by hedge funds [1][2]. - Mutual funds have overweighted the utility sector for the first time, while both fund types are overweight in industrials, benefiting from the AI infrastructure boom [1][2]. - The healthcare sector is favored as a defensive play and an AI hedge, with its valuation discount at historical highs attracting both mutual and hedge funds [1][2][7]. Summary by Sections Fund Positioning - In 2025, mutual funds have reduced cash positions to 1.2%, reflecting a trend to keep pace with strong stock market performance [2]. - Hedge funds are cautious in the consumer discretionary sector, particularly in travel and leisure, indicating recession risks [3][13]. Sector Allocation - The technology sector is the most sold-off by hedge funds, with funds shifting towards healthcare, which has seen strong performance this year [9][10]. - The healthcare sector is viewed as a defensive industry and has a negative correlation with the Nasdaq index, making it attractive during uncertain economic conditions [6][7]. Investment Strategies - Hedge funds are employing macro products to hedge beta risk and are focusing on short-selling opportunities to enhance returns [5][8]. - Mutual funds are advised to manage liquidity carefully and diversify risk, while hedge funds should monitor macroeconomic changes and adjust positions flexibly [8]. Future Outlook - The healthcare sector's valuation remains attractive despite recent gains, with potential growth driven by fundamental factors [11]. - Consumer discretionary sectors may present opportunities if fiscal stimulus leads to increased consumer spending [12].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Li Auto, indicating a positive outlook for the company's stock performance [7]. Core Insights - Li Auto is positioned well in the NEV market with a 5% market share in China as of 2024, benefiting from improvements in urban NOA performance and a focus on AI, which supports volume growth and margin improvement [7]. - The company has the best net cash position among major Chinese OEMs, facilitating future R&D spending and capital expenditures [7]. - Li Auto's current trading multiples are below historical averages, suggesting potential for upside [7]. - Upcoming catalysts include new model launches and advancements in ADAS and AI technologies [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 3Q25, Li Auto reported total revenue of Rmb27,365 million, exceeding expectations by 6%, while gross profit missed by 13% due to a one-time recall cost of approximately Rmb1.1 billion [1][5]. - Vehicle sales revenue was 6% higher than expected, driven by a higher average selling price of Rmb278,000, which is a 5% increase compared to the forecast [2]. - The vehicle gross margin was reported at 15.5%, lower than expected due to recall costs, but would have been 19.8% excluding these costs [2][5]. - Total operating expenses were 12% higher than expected, primarily due to increased R&D and SG&A expenses [2][5]. Guidance and Projections - For 4Q25, Li Auto's revenue guidance is set between Rmb26.5 billion and Rmb29.2 billion, which is a 1% increase at the midpoint compared to expectations [1]. - Vehicle sales volume is projected to be between 100,000 and 110,000 units, slightly below expectations by 1% at the midpoint [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a GDP growth forecast of 5% for the year and 4.5% for Q4 2025, indicating a stable outlook for the industry [5][8]. Core Insights - China's fiscal spending growth is below expectations, primarily due to strong export growth, which allows for a 5% annual growth target to be achievable. This has led to a tightening of fiscal policy in October, but some policy space is reserved for 2026 to ensure a strong start [5][8]. - The focus of China's economic policy for the coming year will be on stabilizing domestic demand, supporting high-tech manufacturing, and stabilizing the real estate market, with key discussions expected in upcoming political meetings [8][12]. - The labor market shows slight improvement but remains at historical lows, limiting consumer recovery. Consumer confidence has improved slightly, influenced by the stock market, but overall consumer spending remains weak [9][10]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - In October, fiscal spending growth was lower than market expectations, leading to an unexpected tightening of broad fiscal indicators. However, the report maintains a GDP growth forecast of 5% for the year [5][6]. Consumer Market - October retail sales data showed accelerated growth in categories like cosmetics and jewelry due to the Double Eleven shopping festival, but this is expected to decline in November. Sales of home appliances and automobiles, supported by trade-in subsidies, have lagged behind other categories, indicating that price promotions and temporary subsidies cannot sustain durable goods consumption [6][7]. Labor Market and Consumer Confidence - The labor market remains weak, with historical low employment levels limiting consumer recovery. Consumer confidence showed slight improvement, potentially due to stock market performance, but overall consumer spending is still weak [9][10]. Fixed Asset Investment (FAI) - FAI growth has significantly slowed, dropping to approximately -11% in October. The decline in real estate investment, along with reductions in infrastructure and manufacturing investments, has contributed to this downturn. The report suggests that only 40% of the decline can be attributed to known factors, with the remaining 60% possibly due to statistical adjustments [13][14]. Policy Recommendations - To stimulate household consumption, the report suggests measures such as creating job opportunities, increasing minimum wage standards, and enhancing service consumption supply. Specific policies include subsidies for the service industry and labor-intensive sectors, as well as relaxing restrictions on high-end consumption [12][16]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies 35 policy-supported industries that account for approximately 60% of the total market capitalization of listed companies. These industries are expected to provide better investment returns based on the analysis of the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan [15][16].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) decreased to +4.7% month-on-month annualized seasonally adjusted in October from +5.9% in September, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [4] - The deterioration in CAI was primarily driven by the manufacturing sectors, suggesting challenges in this area [10] - Both manufacturing and construction growth proxies fell in October, reflecting a broader decline in economic momentum [12] - The China Financial Conditions Index (FCI) tightened further in October, mainly due to foreign exchange appreciation against a trade-weighted basket [26][31] - The investment tracker indicates stable momentum at around 3% year-on-year in Q3, suggesting some resilience in investment despite broader economic challenges [19] Summary by Relevant Sections Current Activity - The CAI fell to +4.7% in October, down from +5.9% in September, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [4] - The decline was led by manufacturing sectors, highlighting potential weaknesses in this area [10] Manufacturing and Construction - Both manufacturing and construction growth proxies experienced declines in October, signaling a broader economic slowdown [12] Financial Conditions - The FCI tightened in October, primarily driven by foreign exchange factors, indicating a more challenging financial environment [26][31] Investment Trends - The investment tracker shows stable momentum at approximately 3% year-on-year in Q3, suggesting some resilience in investment activity [19]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Chinese biopharmaceutical industry, highlighting significant advancements in drug development efficiency and global collaboration strategies. Core Insights - Chinese biopharmaceutical companies have significantly shortened drug development cycles through streamlined decision-making processes and enhanced research capabilities, with some drugs taking only four years from clinical trials to NDA acceptance [1][2] - External licensing has become a crucial strategy for Chinese companies to globalize, with many firms actively building business development teams to foster collaborations with large multinational pharmaceutical companies [1][5] - There is a strong interest in emerging drug modalities such as ADCs, small nucleic acid drugs, and in vivo CAR-T therapies, which are becoming integral parts of the R&D pipeline and are expected to drive next-generation product innovation [1][6] - Global investors are particularly focused on weight loss products and Lipoprotein A (Lp(a)) projects, indicating substantial growth potential in cardiovascular disease-related products [1][4] Summary by Sections Drug Development Efficiency - Chinese companies like Heng Rui have demonstrated impressive development timelines, with processes from GLP E Tox to IND taking only six months and clinical trials to NDA acceptance completed in four years [2] Globalization Strategies - Chinese biopharmaceutical firms are addressing globalization challenges by collaborating with multinational pharmaceutical companies, moving from traditional licensing to co-development models [5] Emerging Drug Modalities - The report emphasizes the enthusiasm of Chinese companies in exploring new drug forms, particularly ADCs and small nucleic acid drugs, which are becoming key components of their R&D pipelines [2][6] Market Focus Areas - Investors are keenly interested in weight loss products and Lp(a) projects, with significant attention on cardiovascular disease collaborations, indicating a robust growth trajectory in these areas [4] Company-Specific Developments - He Yu Pharmaceutical's Pimiatinib is projected to capture a 25% global market share in key indications, with peak sales potentially reaching $1.6 billion [7] - Kangnuo's Sluqi monoclonal antibody is expected to exceed RMB 5 billion in peak sales by 2035, with promising prospects in multiple indications [10] - Hanlin Pharmaceutical is recognized for its high-margin biosimilar business, supporting its innovative pipeline, with the PD-L1 ADC HLX43 expected to achieve peak sales of $3.8 billion [11][12]