Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xinhua Intelligent Control Asia has been downgraded to Neutral due to market expectations already reflecting long-term prospects [2] Core Insights - The report highlights three major themes in the Chinese industrial sector: AI robots, AIDC power solutions, and space solar power [1] - The global humanoid robot shipment is expected to reach approximately 15,000 units by 2025, representing only 3% of the annual industrial robot shipments [3] - Significant growth is anticipated in the AIDC power sector, particularly for Chinese power solution providers, as they address urgent bottlenecks in AI infrastructure [2] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot market is still in its early stages, with major shipments coming from Chinese companies. Future growth is expected to be exponential, with delivery targets increasing to thousands or even tens of thousands of units [3] - Current technology capabilities in humanoid robots have reached 80%-90% in terms of control, with rapid product iterations occurring every 6 to 8 months [3] AIDC Power Solutions - The report emphasizes the potential for Chinese power solution providers in the AIDC sector, particularly those capable of scaling delivery and supporting the transition to 800V DC systems [1][2] - Companies like Siyi Electric are expected to see a 40% increase in overseas orders, driven by product quality and global grid upgrades [8] Tesla Optimus Robot - Tesla's Optimus robot is still in early development, with potential sales not expected until late 2027. Current stock prices may reflect these expectations, and further evidence of effective AI models is needed for price support [4][5] Gas Turbine Blade Suppliers - INL, a gas turbine blade supplier, is positioned to benefit from power shortages and OEM capacity constraints, with a projected revenue CAGR of 25% by 2030 [6][7] Market Opportunities in Space Solar Power - The report discusses potential opportunities in space solar power, particularly with Tesla and SpaceX's plans to increase solar capacity significantly, which could benefit Chinese photovoltaic companies [13] Other Companies - KOSTA, a leading UPS supplier, is expected to see a 60% increase in net profit by 2025, driven by significant orders from the U.S. AI data center supply chain [9][10] - MKM is transitioning into the global AI server power market but faces execution challenges and is rated Neutral due to high valuation and recent losses [11][12]

高盛闭门会-铜价单日大涨 10%的原因，结构性机会和宏 观叙事 20260131 摘要 铜多头头寸年初分散至其他金属，微观交易员对铜空头接受度提高，但 铜价突破 13,400 美元后买盘涌入，虽与基本面尤其是库存不符，但长 期需求趋势提供了解释，短期内涨势或持续至持仓结构恢复正常。 镍、锌、铝交易活跃度上升，主要在铜多头头寸上获利了结，当前行情 或仅至中段。基本面方面，未来库存上升有一定道理，但供应故事将在 6 个月至 1 年后展开，做多参与度低于预期，主要受 CTA 行为驱动。 锌精矿端供应略紧，建筑领域需求疲软但出口渠道表现较好，锌需求好 于预期，基本面在金属中表现最佳，库存状况无需担忧。高频交易相关 消息对价格走势影响程度令人意外，保证金额度调整未产生显著影响。 短期波动率全线飙升，Gamma 最受关注，短期合约价格较两天前基准 水平上涨约三分之一，接近过去五年历史极值区间。做空 Gamma 风险 较高，需重新定位长期观察变动，风险逆转策略仍具价值。 宏观层面驱动力包括降息、财政扩张、AI 资本开支热潮以及货币贬值， 通胀回落、经济增长回升形成积极支撑，风险偏好处于高位，但宏观环 境向好，降息和财政刺激 ...

高盛：大宗散货交易与研究团队铁矿石问答 20260131 摘要 中国港口铁矿石库存处于历史正常区间，但仅从供需基本面来看，当前 价格区间难以维持。高频数据显示中国铁水产量仍处于高位，印度出口 减少，共同作用下港口库存保持平稳。 全球铁矿石出货量持续增长，供应端表现强劲，但中国钢铁行业面临严 重的供过于求，生产商利润空间受到挤压，钢铁出口的高增速难以持续， 市场或需通过产量下降来重新平衡。 中国矿产资源集团（CMRG）限制钢厂采购必和必拓大块矿产品，减少 了钢厂可获取的铁矿石量，在春节前补库周期支撑了铁矿石指数，但长 期来看，可能导致必和必拓业绩受损。 多数基金在战争相关资产上配置资金，并部署风险敞口在空头端，配对 交易策略中，多黄金空铜策略热度超过多黄金或多金属空铁矿石策略， 反映了市场对铁矿石的谨慎态度。 生产商倾向于在 106-108 美元进行对冲操作，消费商则在 103-104 美 元买入，波动区间有限。大部分创始人仍通过空头配置，财务状况稳定， 但整体来看，市场参与者对铁矿石价格的预期分歧不大。 Q&A 尽管近几个月铁矿石市场基本面恶化，铁矿石价格为何仍维持在 100 美元以上？ 回顾过去六个月，铁矿 ...

高盛会谈：AI 如何推动药物研发——Xaira Therapeutics 公司 Marc Tessier Lavigne20260131 摘要 A 级人才吸引 A 级人才，提高人才标准至关重要，如洛克菲勒大学宁缺 毋滥的教职招聘策略和斯坦福大学 140 年前确立的高标准文化，均体现 了人才质量对机构发展的深远影响。 大学在人才培养中扮演关键角色，尤其在识别和培养具备解决重大问题 驱动力和智慧的人才方面。大学是汇聚、培育未来领袖并助力其开启职 业生涯的不可或缺的平台。 Zynerba Therapeutics 利用人工智能革新药物研发，通过高质量数据 积累，减少对传统湿实验的依赖，旨在缩短研发周期、提高成功率，并 已筹集 10 亿美元资金支持该愿景。 Zynerba Therapeutics 采取全面策略，同时攻克分子靶点选择、药物 设计及患者表征三大领域，通过 AI 技术与自主研发的高通量生物学系统 生成海量数据，形成差异化竞争优势。 Zynerba Therapeutics 作为一家利用人工智能革新药物研发与发现过程的 新兴公司，有何独特之处？ 药物研发过程本质上效率低下，目前仍依赖大量经验和直觉，存在高失 ...

摘要 2025 年美国经济增速预计在 2%区间中段，受关税影响，而 2026 年预 计将受益于减税政策，实现增长刺激。该预测基于政策假设，认为特朗 普政府不会在大选年进一步加征关税。 市场共识可能低估了美国经济的增长潜力，实际情况可能存在上行风险。 去年企业为规避关税提前备货导致经济数据扭曲，市场可能高估了关税 的负面影响。 预计未来关税拖累效应将减弱，有效关税率将小幅下降。白宫在中期选 举临近时不会大幅提高关税税率，可能达成协议或出台更多豁免措施， 略微稀释现有关税的影响。 美联储 1 月 FOMC 会议显示，劳动力市场企稳，但就业增长仍需提升才 能持续。预计美联储将推迟降息至 6 月，并可能在 6 月和 9 月各降息一 次，总计 50 个基点，使最终利率达到 3%至 3.25%。 当前就业岗位创造不足，需要每月新增约 6 万至 7 万个就业岗位才能稳 定劳动力市场。企业可能加快招聘步伐，但裁员讨论和 AI 部署可能带来 不确定性。 Q&A 高盛闭门会议：美国经济增长能否跑赢大市？20260131 请谈谈你们高于市场共识的增长预测。 我们预测 2026 年四季度环比增长 2.5%，全年增长 2.9%，比市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a constructive outlook for the U.S. consumer sector, with a focus on the anticipated impact of tax refunds and lower withholding tax policies, which are expected to increase disposable income by $100 billion [2][10]. Core Insights - The consumer sector is benefiting from a rotation in market sentiment, although investor positions remain low. The upcoming $100 billion tax refund is expected to provide strong support from February to April, but caution is advised for potential declines at the end of Q1 [1][10]. - Investors are optimistic about the consumer sector but have not significantly increased their positions due to uncertainties in the job market and pressures from AI in the second half of the year. Funds are flowing more into interest-sensitive large consumer sectors like industrials and real estate [1][4]. - Companies such as Ralph Lauren, Capri, Levi's, and Macy's are favored by investors, while Walmart and Dick's Sporting Goods face more scrutiny [5]. Summary by Sections Consumer Market Attitude - Investors generally hold a constructive attitude towards the U.S. consumer market at the beginning of 2026, driven by expected tax refunds and a robust fourth-quarter performance. The consumer discretionary sector has risen by 7% year-to-date, while the housing sector has increased by 10% [2]. Retail Performance - Discount retailers Ross and TJ Maxx are expected to deliver strong performance, with comparable sales projected to exceed 7% and 6%, respectively [6]. Conversely, Best Buy has seen negative sentiment since Black Friday, with expectations of continued low performance [7]. Technology Sector Dynamics - The technology sector's developments, including layoffs at Amazon, are noted as potential influences on the retail sector. Market differentiation remains high, with a significant drop in the spread between hedge fund VIP and short portfolios [8]. Tax Refund Impact - The anticipated $100 billion tax refund is expected to significantly support consumer spending, particularly among low-income groups, with spending trends likely to continue into April or May 2027 [10]. Company Preferences - Investors currently favor companies like Ralph Lauren, Wayfair, and Warby Parker, while companies like Walmart and Dick's Sporting Goods are viewed with skepticism due to valuation concerns [5][11]. Valuation Concerns - There are notable valuation concerns regarding Tapestry, with suggestions to buy discount retail stocks on pullbacks rather than chasing high prices [11]. Market Sentiment Post-ICR Conference - Despite some disappointing earnings reports, investor sentiment remains positive towards certain sectors, with a focus on individual stock potential rather than overall sector trends [12].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with a focus on selective stock picking in sectors such as real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and tourism, particularly within the OCU index and the Saudi market [2][7]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risks remain significant, particularly concerning Iran, with the potential for military action still a concern despite reduced immediate threats [1][2]. - Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $62 per barrel in 2026, leading to a moderate fiscal deficit for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, with net borrowing needs estimated at approximately $160 billion [1][2]. - Saudi Arabia is shifting its investment focus from traditional real estate to artificial intelligence, aiming to become a key player in the global AI supply chain through initiatives like the U-Maine platform [1][4]. - Bahrain's government has proposed fiscal reforms, including subsidy cuts and corporate tax implementation, to balance its fiscal accounts, although the success of these reforms remains uncertain [1][5]. - Egypt's economic outlook is generally positive, with improved external financing conditions and a downward trend in inflation, but risks related to potential policy reversals post-IMF program and geopolitical tensions persist [1][6]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical and Oil Market Influences - The economic outlook for the MENA region is heavily influenced by geopolitical factors, particularly the situation in Iran, and the oil market, with a forecasted fiscal deficit for GCC countries [2][8]. Saudi Arabia's Economic Transition - Saudi Arabia is making significant investments in AI and data centers, indicating a strategic pivot towards emerging technologies while maintaining stable domestic spending [1][4]. Bahrain's Fiscal Reforms - Bahrain's proposed reforms aim to improve fiscal health, but historical challenges in policy implementation raise concerns about their effectiveness [1][5]. Egypt's Economic Prospects - Egypt shows a favorable economic outlook with strong external financing and decreasing inflation, but caution is advised due to potential policy shifts and geopolitical risks [1][6]. Stock Market Strategies - The report emphasizes a selective approach to stock picking in the MENA region, particularly in sectors benefiting from social reforms and capital expenditure, while highlighting the challenges in the broader market [2][7].

Market Overview - Global stock markets are expected to have potential upside in 2026, with the S&P 500 projected to reach a target price of 7,600, representing a 10% return[10]. - The MSCI Emerging Markets index is forecasted to increase to 1,600, indicating a 9% return[10]. Earnings Growth - Earnings per share (EPS) growth is anticipated to be 11% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 12% in 2027 for the S&P 500[7]. - The MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) is expected to see EPS growth of 10% in 2025, 19% in 2026, and 12% in 2027, driven primarily by East Asia and the technology sector[29]. Valuation Metrics - Current valuations for major indices like the S&P 500 and MSCI Europe are at historical highs, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12x[5]. - The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio is projected to be around 22x, reflecting an increase compared to historical averages, which is deemed reasonable given the macroeconomic backdrop[19]. Dividend Contributions - Dividend contributions are expected to play a significant role in total returns, with the S&P 500's total return driven by earnings growth and valuation expansion[15]. - The forecasted dividend yield for the S&P 500 is approximately 1.5% for 2026[17]. Sector Performance - The report highlights strong performance in technology stocks, with significant contributions to EPS growth from major players like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft[25]. - The aerospace and defense sectors are expected to gain traction in 2026, alongside a focus on re-industrialization in the U.S.[35]. Economic Context - The U.S. monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, supporting Asian markets amid a weaker dollar[27]. - The report indicates a healthy economic backdrop, with GDP growth projected to stabilize, further supporting market performance[27].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades MGP to Buy from Neutral, highlighting its sustainable growth and resilient margins in the premium beauty market [10] - Giant Biogene is rated Buy, with expectations of a gradual recovery in sales and strong long-term growth potential [16] - Shanghai Jahwa is also rated Buy, indicating a turnaround in its skincare business and solid growth prospects [22] Core Insights - The China cosmetics industry is expected to see sustained momentum driven by higher-quality channels and a focus on new product cycles [3] - The government's anti-involution measures are likely to increase traffic acquisition costs, impacting sales on platforms like Douyin [3] - There is a shift towards reliability and brand trust in consumer preferences, prompting companies to innovate and upgrade their product offerings [4] Summary by Sections Key Trends - Higher-quality channels are expected to maintain momentum, particularly on Tmall, supported by government measures [3] - The product landscape is shifting towards proven efficacy and brand trust, with companies innovating to create new value propositions [4] Company-Specific Insights - MGP is positioned for sustainable growth with a projected 34%/38% sales/NI CAGR from 2021-2025, and 23%/22% from 2025-2027 [10][11] - Giant Biogene anticipates a sales decline in the short term but expects recovery driven by its leading brand position and product pipeline [16] - Shanghai Jahwa is experiencing strong growth in its key brands, with a projected CAGR of 2%/34% for its personal care/cosmetics segment from 2025-2027 [22] Valuation Methodology - MGP's target price is set at HK$105 based on a 28x 2027E P/E, reflecting its high growth profile [12] - Giant Biogene's target price is HK$46, based on a 22x 2027E P/E, indicating a recovery in its sales profile [17] - Shanghai Jahwa's target price is RMB 28, based on a 30x 2027E P/E, reflecting its improving sales and net profit profile [23]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a "Fed credibility trade" and suggests that the current market does not feel like a volatility 5x market, indicating a cautious outlook on volatility levels [1]. Core Insights - The current market volatility is perceived as unusually low, reminiscent of the lowest levels seen during Trump's first term, with significant implications for trading strategies [1]. - There is a notable demand for cyclical assets, evidenced by large short positions in macro products and software, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [9]. - The report highlights that the total gamma estimates for SPX are showing a certain counter-cyclicality within the first 3% of spot price fluctuations, suggesting potential trading opportunities [5]. - The technology sector continues to face pressure, with a reported decline of -2.3 standard deviations, marking it as one of the most impacted sectors [12]. - Small-cap stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 for 11 consecutive trading days, a trend not seen since 2008, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Prime Book - The total short positions in the U.S. fundamentals have been at the 100th percentile over the past 1, 3, and 5-year periods, indicating extreme bearish sentiment [12]. - Macro products are facing significant shorting, with investors looking to profit from increased market differentiation ahead of earnings season [12]. 2. Shares - The report notes a busy week with various meetings and earnings reports, highlighting the "Trump positive" trades being closed out [14]. 3. Futures - CTA positions remain heavily long, with increasing risks of liquidation as the market stagnates, despite no recent investor inquiries about these stocks [15]. 4. Derivatives - The report discusses the rare occurrence of both stock and fixed income volatility being low simultaneously, creating opportunities for high-leverage, low-premium stocks and fixed income double-digit bonds [17]. 5. Emerging Markets - A survey of over 400 fund managers shows a strong preference for returns from emerging markets, with significant investments in options indicating bullish sentiment [19]. 6. ETFs - Small-cap stocks are highlighted as popular trading targets, with IWC (micro-cap ETF) showing consistent daily gains this year [26]. 7. Baskets - The report suggests expanding investment scope, recommending long positions in companies leveraging AI to enhance productivity [22]. 8. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies opportunities in stocks and mixed-rate bonds, noting low implied prices that could yield convexity returns under reasonable strike prices [27].