9 April 2025 | 12:14PM EDT US Daily: 5 Questions on the Near-Term Outlook for Trade and Fiscal Policy (Phillips) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1( ...

9 April 2025 | 2:10PM EDT MAIN POINTS: Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357-3137 | elsie.peng@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC USA: President Tr ...

10 April 2025 | 12:48PM HKT China: US tariffs on China jump to 125%; Lowering real GDP growth forecasts Bottom line: On April 9th, President Trump announced a further increase in the tariff rate on imports from China to 125%, following the Chinese government's increase of tariffs on US goods to 84%. Although additional tariff increases are likely to have a diminishing marginal impact, the substantial rise in US tariffs on China is expected to significantly weigh on the Chinese economy and labor market. We a ...

9 April 2025 | 12:17PM EDT Global Markets Daily: Making Sense of the Moves in Treasury Yields (Zu/Marshall) Making Sense of the Moves in Treasury Yields Amid rising recession risks and the sharp drawdown in risk assets, the breakdown in the typical relationship of lower yields and lower risk assets in these risk-off periods has become increasingly extreme. In today's Daily, we assess the drivers of this relative weakness in Treasuries. Taking a very high level view, it is first worth noting that, while the ...

8 April 2025 | 9:32PM HKT China: Incremental GDP impact from potentially another 50% Trump tariff Bottom line: China's retaliatory tariff of 34% on US goods, a response to US "reciprocal" tariffs, triggered a threat from President Trump to impose an additional 50% tariff if China does not withdraw its retaliatory tariff. Further statements from the Chinese government point to escalating trade tensions. Our analysis suggests an initial 50% tariff (which is roughly how much President Trump has imposed on Chin ...

7 April 2025 | 11:00PM EDT Oil Comment: How Low Could Oil Prices Go? Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Callum Bruce, CFA +1(212)902-3053 | callum.bruce@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ephraim Sutherland +1(972)368-0395 | ephraim.sutherland@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC ce ...

8 April 2025 | 10:35PM HKT China Consumer Pulse check: Signs of bottoming out in 4Q24 but outlook still prudent; policy/tariff to be watched While we are yet to see meaningful rebound and volatility remains in the recovery path, there has been signs of bottoming out since 4Q24 with sequential growth improvement (average 14% vs. 7% in 3Q24 for reported sales, with easier base) and post CNY holiday consumption pull back has been better than feared. Post intensified price competition in past two years, from 2H ...

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY RESEARCH 8 April 2025 | 5:00AM BST GLOBAL STRATEGY PAPER NO. 71 Bear Market Anatomy – the path and shape of the bear market Peter Oppenheimer +44(20)7552-5782 peter.oppenheimer@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Sharon Bell +44(20)7552-1341 sharon.bell@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Lilia Peytavin +33(1)4212-1716 lilia.peytavin@gs.com Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris Branch Guillaume Jaisson +44(20)7552-3000 guillaume.jaisson@gs.com Goldman Sachs International Investors should con ...

8 April 2025 | 6:31PM EDT Global Markets Comment: After the Tariffs—Still Room to Price Recession (Wilson/Chang) Dominic Wilson +1(212)902-5924 | dominic.wilson@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Vickie Chang +1(212)902-6915 | vickie.chang@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. c45a43530f604d12bc ...

8 April 2025 | 2:22AM BST Global Markets Daily: Tariffs and the Dollar: Why We Flipped Our View Tariffs and the Dollar: Why We Flipped Our View We have made a major shift in our Dollar view after seeing the developments of the last few weeks and rethinking the likely implications of these policy changes. We now expect recent Dollar weakness to persist, particularly in DXY terms. This change reflects a number of related factors, but the common thread is that the exceptional positioning that has supported the ...