Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Dabeinong and Haid, a "Neutral" rating on Wens, and a "Sell" rating on New Hope [7][13]. Core Insights - The domestic hog benchmark price is revised down by 9% for 2H25E to Rmb16.0/kg and by 6% to Rmb16.5/kg for 2026-27E, reflecting better cost management by marginal producers and improved supply discipline [1][3]. - The total unit cost of hog farming by marginal producers has decreased by Rmb0.8/kg in 1H25E compared to the end of 2024A, primarily due to productivity gains and lower mortality rates [2]. - Supply/demand dynamics are expected to shift from a surplus of 6% in 1H25A to a deficit of 3% in 2H25E, driven by a declining sow herd and increased seasonal demand [3][11]. Summary by Sections Price and Supply Dynamics - The hog price is projected to improve from Rmb16.0/kg in 2H25E to Rmb16.5/kg in 2026-27E, with an implied net profit ranging from Rmb0.7-2.3/kg for 2H25E [4][7]. - The average sow herd size is expected to decrease from 28.9 million heads in 1H25E to 27.5 million heads by 2027E, contributing to a sustained supply deficit of 3-4% [11]. Earnings Adjustments - Earnings for hog-related stocks are revised down by 8-31% for 2025E and 7-19% for 2026-27E, reflecting the new hog price assumptions [7][13]. - The report highlights specific earnings changes for companies: Wens (-18%), New Hope (-31%), Haid (-9%), and Dabeinong (-8%) [13]. Market Outlook - The report indicates a positive trend in supply discipline, with measures such as controlling live hog output weight and ceasing secondary fattening practices to mitigate short-term supply risks [6][11]. - The overall market dynamics suggest a more favorable pricing environment due to improved supply management and seasonal demand increases [3][11].

China Data Centers Deleveraging and improved order visibility to support share price performance; Buy GDS/VNET 4 July 2025 | 8:20AM HKT We maintain our constructive view on the China data center sector, and reiterate our Buy ratings on GDS/VNET with our 12m target prices at US$37/HK$36 for GDS/9698.HK (20%/20% upside) and US$12 for VNET (69% upside), respectively. Share prices of GDS/VNET underperformed the market for three consecutive months from Mar to May amidst dilutive convertible note/equity financing ...

4 July 2025 | 1:08AM HKT Pony AI Inc. (PONY): Luxembourg Robotaxi On-Road testing started; Overseas expansion in progress; Buy Pony AI announced Robotaxi road-testing in Luxembourg (Link) in July, post receiving the scientific testing permit from Luxembourg's Ministry of Mobility and Public Works for L4 autonomous driving in Apr this year (Link). Pony AI is expanding from the China market to new regions (Middle East, Europe etc.) to accelerate the Robotaxi fleet ramp-up. We are positive on company's Robotax ...

3 July 2025 | 8:18PM BST Global Rates Trader Short Runway to Rally Our economists' revised Fed baseline, which implies both earlier cuts and a lower terminal rate, points to a lower range for US yields across the curve. We now expect 10y US yields at 4.20% at end-2025 vs 4.50% previously, with a modestly steeper curve the likely result. We continue to think that a larger sustained rally would likely require a weaker growth outlook than our forecasts suggest, but ongoing data uncertainty makes it hard to rul ...

3 July 2025 | 7:34PM HKT Innovent Biologics (1801.HK): China Healthcare Corporate Day 2025 — Confidence on mazdutide; Focus to maximize potential of IBI363 Presenters: Rachel You - Chief Financial Officer, Shu Zhu - IR Director, Samantha Xie - Senior IR Manager Bottom line: We hosted Innovent management team on July 3rd virtually at our China Healthcare Corporate Day. Mgmt highlighted 1) the multi-channel coverage conducted for mazdutide, 2) its target to build a higher competition barrier for mazdutide, 3) ...

3 July 2025 | 11:09AM EDT Global Economics Comment: A Surprisingly Small Uncertainty Drag (Briggs/Dong) A Surprisingly Small Uncertainty Drag Trade policy uncertainty rose in most countries after President Trump's election victory (and spiked sharply following Liberation Day on April 2), exceeding levels observed during the 2018-19 trade war. While uncertainty indices remain high Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and o ...

China Solar: Glass/Poly Share price rally overly reacted on supply-side policy anticipation, reiterate Sell on Flat/Xinyi/Tongwei Share prices for our Solar Glass/Poly coverage have rallied by 17%/17% on average during June 30-July 2 (vs. largely flat performance of CSI300 and HSI at +0.6%/-0.3%), on the back of rising supply-side policy expectations following the readout from Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission on July 2 and two high profile opinion pieces (by People's Daily on Jun 29 and Qiu ...

Global Healthcare Biopharma catalysts to watch in 3Q25 With macroeconomic volatility and healthcare policy uncertainty persisting likely into the back half of the year, we continue to advocate for and highlight idiosyncratic catalysts with attractive risk/reward setups to drive alpha generation. Herein, we highlight and preview key catalysts in 3Q25 across the GS biotechnology coverage universe from pivotal studies: BMY's Cobenfy ADEPT-2 in Alzheimer's disease psychosis; LLY's orforglipron ATTAIN-1 in obesi ...

3 July 2025 | 8:45AM AEST Metals & Mining: Gold Addressing key questions in gold equities Following our initiations on VAU, WGX, PNR (Buy) and GMD, RMS, GGP (Neutral), we look to address key ongoing investor questions on the following key themes across Australian gold equities: Details within. Hugo Nicolaci +61(2)9321-8323 | hugo.nicolaci@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Marcus Dosanjh +61(2)9321-8780 | marcus.dosanjh@gs.com Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Ltd Paul Young +61(2)9321-8302 | paul.young1@gs.c ...

2 July 2025 | 4:55PM SGT Base Metals Tracker: Robust Chinese Demand And US Over-Importing Is Tightening The Ex-US Copper Market China's refined copper demand has increased by 12% YTD May. While export strength and a weak 2024 base contribute, domestic demand is a significant driver. China solar installations are up 150%, and AC sales are up 8%. Our end-use tracker indicates 13% YTD growth, after finished product exports, supporting 12% YTD growth in refined copper demand. We maintain our forecast of 6% grow ...