2 July 2025 | 4:33PM EDT What's Top of Mind in Macro Research: Earlier Fed cuts, US/UK fiscal policy, Q2 earnings season This week: Transcript Earlier Fed cuts We recently pulled forward our forecast for the next Fed rate cut to September from December as the very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects on consumer prices are a bit smaller than we expected, disinflationary pressures are coming through, and we suspect that Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price le ...

1 July 2025 | 8:44AM EDT US Economics Analyst The Framework Review: Room for Innovation on Fed Communication (Abecasis / Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. L ...

1 July 2025 | 10:10PM EDT Oil Tracker: Global Stocks Increase Ahead of OPEC+ Meeting Crude oil prices remained roughly unchanged week-on-week as the market focus shifts from the ceasefire in the Middle East to this Sunday's virtual OPEC+ meeting where eight members will decide on August production. We continue to expect the group to announce another 411kb/d increase in required production because: We assume the August production hike to be the last one as a large inflow of non-OPEC ex shale projects softens ...

EQUITY RESEARCH | July 3, 2025 | 2:10AM HKT Navigating China Internet The 'everyday app' battle in eCommerce: food/instant delivery TAM, cross-sell & eventual landscape The intensity of competition between eCommerce players and local services leader Meituan in food delivery/instant shopping has elevated to a new level. Unlike previous investments by eCommerce players that were scaled back within a few quarters, we believe the duration of investments this time will extend for longer— given all of the compani ...

2 July 2025 | 4:24PM HKT WuXi Biologics (2269.HK): China Healthcare Corporate Day 2025 — Key Takeaways: on-track to deliver revenue guidance; capacity We hosted WuXi Biologics's IR team with investors (virtual) on Jul 2 at our China Healthcare Corporate Day 2025. Bottom line: Mgmt noted 1) on track to deliver FY25 revenue guidance (+12-15% y/y, or +17-20% y/y for continuing operations), supported by robust BD (business development) momentum and healthy new client order; 2) Leading biotech & pharma clients i ...

1 July 2025 | 3:48PM HKT China Healthcare Service & Devices CDMO 2Q order momentum continued; recovery for Medtech & Services more likely in 2H25 We hosted 54 China Healthcare companies in-person in Hong Kong (June 24-27), among which were CDMO/CRO (e.g., WuXi AppTec, Asymchem, Pharmaron, WuXi XDC, Tigermed, Genscript, Bora Pharma), MedTech (Weigao, AK Medical, Kangji, Angelalign, Jiangsu Yuyue, and Lepu), and Service names (Hygiea, Gushengtang, Jinxin, Aier). CRO/CDMO: Momentum continues; investor focus on ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BioKangtai is Neutral with a 12-month price target of Rmb19, indicating an upside potential of 25.6% from the current price of Rmb15.13 [10][9]. Core Insights - BioKangtai's DTaP-Hib vaccine sales are expected to decline by approximately 80% in 2025, which will offset the revenue growth from newly launched products such as the varicella vaccine and human diploid cell rabies vaccine [2][8]. - The company anticipates some level of revenue growth in 2025 despite the decline in DTaP-Hib sales, supported by the strong performance of PCV13, which has a penetration rate nearing 30% [2][8]. - Significant increases in R&D expenses are expected due to pipeline expansion and clinical advancements, leading to profit targets remaining roughly flat compared to 2024 [2][8]. Business Performance Update - The ongoing anti-corruption campaign in the healthcare industry has led to a reduction in inventory levels within the CDC systems, negatively impacting shipment volumes and revenue in 2024 [2]. - The company has observed continued growth in actual sales of PCV13, with strong revenue growth in Q1 2025 supported by the ramp-up in sales of newly launched vaccines [2][8]. Overseas Business Progress and Outlook - BioKangtai's international expansion aims to increase capacity utilization with minimal additional costs, although overseas business is not expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth in the near term due to low vaccine prices in developing countries [3][6]. Pipeline Development Update - The company expects key pipeline projects, including the DTcP-IPV-Hib vaccine and PCV20, to be approved in 2027 and 2028, respectively [7]. - The approval and launch of the IPV vaccine is anticipated within the current year, followed by adsorbed tetanus and quadrivalent influenza vaccines in 2026 [7]. - There is a growing emphasis on adult vaccine development in response to declining birth rates, with potential expansion into other business areas such as antibody drug development [7].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative outlook for most industries, suggesting that many are not at the bottom of their cycles and face potential risks in the future [28][37]. Core Insights - The current state of excess capacity in the Chinese manufacturing sector remains largely unchanged, with five out of seven key industries still exhibiting overcapacity relative to global demand [17][19]. - A significant stimulus policy aimed at boosting domestic demand has temporarily alleviated some pressures, particularly in the tail end of the industry, but this is not indicative of a cyclical turning point [17][24]. - The "Three Principles" framework suggests that the bottoming out of cycles will be delayed, with negative cyclical risks anticipated in the near future [28][39]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report focuses on seven key industries contributing to 25% of China's GDP growth and 7% of exports, including air conditioners, solar modules, lithium batteries, electric vehicles, power semiconductors, steel, and construction machinery [3][16]. - The analysis shows that while there has been some improvement in capacity utilization rates, the overall competitive landscape remains challenging, with many companies still operating at negative or zero cash margins [36][37]. Capacity and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that the capacity utilization rates for the seven industries are projected to average around 63% in 2025, which is higher than the actual values for 2023-24 but still indicates potential for future declines [22][24]. - The stimulus measures have led to significant pre-purchase demand, particularly in the electric vehicle and air conditioning sectors, with estimates suggesting that these policies could drive demand significantly above baseline levels [24][26]. Industry-Specific Insights - The solar industry is noted to be closest to a turning point, while the electric vehicle sector is characterized by the weakest profitability and steepest cost curves, indicating a need for market consolidation [4][28]. - In contrast, leading manufacturers in the air conditioning, lithium battery, and construction machinery sectors maintain relative cost advantages, which may provide them with a more stable position in the market [4][19]. Future Outlook - The report concludes that while some industries may experience temporary relief from policy measures, the underlying structural issues and excess capacity will likely lead to continued challenges in achieving sustainable profitability [17][25]. - The anticipated demand recovery is seen as fragile, with potential risks associated with the tapering of stimulus measures in the coming years [28][39].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Huadong Medicine Co. is Neutral, with a 12-month price target of Rmb41, indicating a potential upside of 1.5% from the current price of Rmb40.39 [7][11]. Core Insights - The company has shown slight growth in its business performance, particularly in innovative drugs and aesthetics, with expectations for improvement in H2 2025 driven by new product launches [2][6]. - Huadong Medicine anticipates additional revenue of Rmb1 billion from innovative drugs and new biosimilars in 2025, with hospital sales of ELAHERE and Arcalyst expected to start in Q3 2025 [6][7]. - The aesthetics segment is expected to launch new products such as MaiLi HA filler injection and V30 in H2 2025, aiming to support growth despite a weak consumption environment [6][7]. Summary by Sections Recent Business Performance - The company expects higher revenue growth from its manufacturing business and stable growth from aesthetics in Q2 2025 compared to Q1 2025, with optimism for H2 due to new product launches [2][6]. Innovative Drugs - Huadong Medicine plans to initiate hospital sales of ELAHERE and Arcalyst in Q3 2025, projecting an additional Rmb1 billion in revenue from innovative drugs and new biosimilars in 2025 [6][7]. - The company is cautious about the development of its oral GLP-1 asset (HDM1002) due to concerns over liver toxicity, although no adverse events have been observed in over 800 enrolled patients [6]. Aesthetics - The company aims to launch several new aesthetic products in China in H2 2025, including MaiLi HA filler injection and Preime DermaFacial, to drive growth in a challenging consumption environment [6][7]. Industrial Microbiology - Huadong Medicine is developing APIs for pharmaceutical and biotech companies, expecting sales ramp-up following the launch of these assets [10]. Policy Impact - The company is actively engaging with national healthcare insurance to include its innovative drugs in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL) and anticipates limited impact from potential volume-based procurement (VBP) on certain products due to patent protections [10].

USA: Powell Reiterates Wait-and-See Approach to Policy, Does Not Comment on July Cut BOTTOM LINE: Chair Powell said the economy was "healthy overall" and that "as long as the US economy is in solid shape, we think the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more, and see what [the tariffs'] effects might be." When asked about whether it was too soon for the Fed to start cutting in July, Powell said he "wouldn't take any meeting off the table or put it directly on the table." Powell said that the inflation ...