美国关税风险排序 (摘要) 迪安竹 +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 权九勋, CFA +852-2978-0048 | goohoon.kwon@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 宋欣佳 +852-2978-0106 | chelsea.song@gs.com 高盛（亚洲）有限责任公司 n 自2018-19年中美贸易战以来，中国占美国进口的份额有所下降。尽管如此，美国 对华贸易逆差仍超过美国对亚太地区（乃至全世界）其他经济体的贸易逆差规 模，我们预计中国将成为美国加征关税的主要目标对象。 n 鉴于现在距离美国当选总统特朗普的就职典礼只有一个多月时间，我们评估了美 国加征关税给中国以外亚太经济体带来的风险及其对亚太地区经济活动的潜在影 响。 n 面对美国关税施压，亚洲经济体可能采取的应对措施包括：1) 采取报复措施（对 于中国这样的大型经济体来说较为可行）；2) 增加购买美国商品，以缓解贸易不 平衡（将能源之类的一些大宗商品采购转向美国可能相对容易）；3) 采取措施放 宽对美国产品的市场准入限制（例如降低进口关税）；4) 调整汇率管理方 ...

1. 对于整个亚洲来说，2024年是具有里程碑意义的一年。日本央行结束了长达八年的 负利率政策，执政的自民党15年来首次在众议院选举中失去多数席位。短暂宣布戒严 的韩国总统目前正面临弹劾，加剧了国内政治僵局。中国截至目前最为严峻的房地产 市场低迷仍在持续，政策制定者时隔14年再提"适度宽松"。印度总理莫迪领导的印 度人民党/全国民主联盟在2024年初的选举中失利，印度储备银行也在进行高层改组。 就东盟国家而言，印尼和越南迎来了新的总统和国家主席，新加坡和泰国则迎来了新 总理。纵观整个区域，通胀已经消退，部分经济体的增长担忧升温，因此除日本央行 之外的许多央行都放松了货币政策。 图表 1: 美国最大的双边贸易逆差源自对华贸易，但与其他亚洲经济体的逆差也在增长 投资者不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅 www.gs.com/research/hedge.html。 资料来源：Haver Analytics, 高盛全球投资研究部 资料来源：Haver Analytics, 彭博, 高盛全球投资研究部 3. 对于美国的潜在加征关税，中国似乎仍将首当其冲。我们 ...

全球经济分析 n 我们估算，在此前贸易战期间，美国对中国进口商品在产品层面的关税税率每提 高1个百分点已推动进口下降1-2%，这与学术研究显示关税的短期贸易弹性平均为 1.3%一致。在我们对关税的基线预测下，美国进口需求下降可能导致约1,000亿美 元商品重定向至其他经济体。 n 贸易战对通胀的影响将取决于诸多因素，包括其他国家是否采取报复措施、经济 增长放缓的程度以及汇率市场对关税作何反应。我们的估算显示，贸易重定向可 能会对美国以外发达市场的价格构成进一步下行压力，然而，这与我们总体鸽派 的汇率展望一致。 全球经济分析 We expect that the second Trump administration will deliver tariffs that raise the effective tariff rate on US imports from China by 20pp (driven by increases up to 60pp on the list 1-2 items from the 2018-2019 trade war). We also expect an increa ...

更多调研纪要关注知识星球/公众号：M T调研 微信号：s130970 2024年12月9日 | 12:34AM EST 美国经济分析 业绩期要点：准备应对关税 (摘要) 家，不过一些公司承认不大可能将生产迁回美国。 可能已是进行时。第三，多家公司表示可能重组供应链，以避开加征关税的国 推迟面对更高价格。自美国大选以来，来自中国港口的出口量上升表明这种情况 成本转移给客户。第二，有数家公司表示将在关税政策实施前囤积进口商品，以 n 公司计划通过三种策略来降低潜在关税的影响。第一，部分公司表示会将更高的 标已降至2016-17年水平。 ——尤其在低技能服务业——和价格增长带来下行压力：我们的价格公告追踪指 的管理层比例已回落至疫情前水平。劳动力供应的大幅增加似乎已对工资增长 n 完全再平衡的劳动力市场继续对工资和价格增长带来下行压力。谈及劳动力短缺 的离散度。 固处于正面区间，且在各收入群体的分布更加均衡，这应会进一步收窄支出增长 消费者的支出增速在过去一年略有走弱，我们预计在2025年，实际收入增长将稳 业绩电话会上围绕消费者的信心量化指标已升至近三年来的最高位。尽管低收入 n 美国消费者仍是力量之源。公司评论 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a baseline scenario for China's 2025 economic outlook, with a real GDP growth forecast of 4.5%, down from 4.9% in 2024 [8][9] Core Views - Chinese policymakers are expected to lean against the wind to stabilize domestic consumption and the property market while managing renewed US-China trade tensions in 2025 [6] - The US effective tariff rate on Chinese goods is assumed to increase by 20pp, leading to a 0.7pp drag on China's real GDP in 2025 [7][9] - Policymakers are expected to cut policy rates by 40bp and expand the augmented fiscal deficit by 1.8pp of GDP in 2025 to counteract growth headwinds [9] Economic Growth and Drivers - China's real GDP growth is expected to decelerate from 4.9% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, with a shift in growth drivers from exports to policy support [8][9] - Exports, which contributed 70% of GDP growth in 2024, are expected to decelerate sharply in 2025 due to higher US tariffs, with total goods export volume remaining flat [8][50] - Consumption, especially goods consumption, is expected to outperform, while property investment declines continue [9] Inflation and Deflation - CPI and PPI inflation are projected to be 0.8% and 0%, respectively, in 2025, below consensus expectations [17] - Structural factors, including industrial overcapacity and weak consumer confidence, are expected to weigh on inflation [17] Property Market - The property sector is expected to remain a significant drag on growth, with a projected 2.0pp negative contribution to GDP in 2025 [41] - New home starts and government land sales revenue have declined by more than 70% and 60%, respectively, from their 2020-21 peaks [36] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy is expected to play a key role in 2025, with the augmented fiscal deficit widening by 1.8pp of GDP to 13.0% [76] - The PBOC is expected to cut policy rates by 40bp in 2025, with two 20bp cuts in Q2 and Q4 [86][100] Trade and Tariffs - Chinese exports to the US are expected to decline significantly in 2025, while exports to other countries may increase modestly [51] - The current account surplus is expected to decline to 1.6% of GDP in 2025 from 2.1% in 2024, driven by a narrower goods trade surplus and a wider services trade deficit [55] Labor Market and Consumption - The labor market remains weak, with youth unemployment reaching 18.8% in August 2024 [30] - Household consumption growth is expected to stay flat at 5.0% in 2025, supported by subsidy programs and potential wealth effects from the stock market [24][25] Long-Term Growth Outlook - China's real GDP growth is expected to average 3.5% from 2025 to 2035, significantly lower than the 9.0% average during 2000-2019 [4][14] - The leadership's focus on technology-driven and high-quality growth is expected to continue, with "technology" and "high-quality" becoming more frequently mentioned in policy speeches [13]

Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published October 21, 2024 [32 pgs]. POST-ELECTION ECONOMIC POLICIES WHAT'S INSIDE ISSUE 132 | October 21, 2024 | 4:50 PM EDT &&&&&&R&&&&& &&&& & && & Global Macro Research TOP of MIND With all eyes on the fast-approaching US election amid a close race between two candidates with vastly different worldviews, what the election could portend for economic policy—and the macro and market implications—is Top of Mind. Kevin Hassett, CEA Chairman und ...

Research 证券研究报告 | 2024年10月16日 | 12:07AM HKT CHINA RESILIENCE 聚焦中国高韧性企业 –腾讯控股 (0700.HK) 超级应用构筑生态系统，游戏业务布局全球 (摘要) | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published October 9, 2024 [100 pgs]. Carbonomics We update our paths to net zero carbon that we introduced in June 2021, reflecting rising emissions and coal use since the 2022 energy crisis and material changes to our Carbonomics cost curve. We now present three global paths for decarbonization by sector and technology, adding a GS 2.0° scenario alongside our GS 1.5° and GS <2.0° scenarios. We highlight four main changes since 2021: 1) The 1. ...

Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published August 29, 2024 [73 pgs]. EQUITY RESEARCH | August 29, 2024 | 3:58 AM BST GS SUSTAIN Nature & Biodiversity Analysing risks and opportunities through a new Nature Data Tool As more companies focus on Biodiversity and Nature to both meet corporate sustainability strategies and manage business risks, we see rising interest by corporates and Sustainable investors to quantify Nature-related performance, risk and enablement. With this repo ...

2024年8月14日 | 3:21PM CST 智飞生物 (300122.SZ): 葛兰素史克RSV疫苗启动中国III期 临床试验 我们注意到葛兰素史克（GSK，由高盛分析师Rajan Sharma覆盖）于2024年8月13日 在中国注册了重组呼吸道合胞病毒(RSV)疫苗的III期临床试验。该试验计划入组2,600 名60岁及以上的健康受试者，研究人员预计2025年3月完成主要终点随访。因此，如 果一切进展顺利，基于常规的审批时间，该疫苗可能在2026年上半年获国家药监局批 准上市。此前，智飞生物与GSK达成协议（参见我们的报告），GSK成为智飞生物在 中国联合开发及商业化RSV老年人疫苗的独家合作伙伴。然而，具体合作细节有待双 方进一步讨论及签署单独协议。2023年，该疫苗已在美国获批用于60岁及以上的人 群。然而，美国ACIP（免疫实践咨询委员会）目前只建议75岁以上人群以及发生严重 疾病风险较高的60-74岁人群接种，且建议终生接种一剂疫苗。该疫苗在美国的WAC 价格为每剂280美元。由于临床试验的不确定性以及双方合作的进一步细节尚未披 露，我们尚未在我们的模型中纳入该疫苗的销售数据。 投资观点 智飞生 ...