优质的 ⾼盛指出，2026年你需要把握的五⼤趋势如下。 泰勒·德登 2025年12⽉13⽇，星期六，晚上11:20 随着主要股指基本回到⾼位，FOMC会议和甲⻣⽂公司财报发布也已尘埃落定，市场已经做了很多⼯作来消除11⽉前三周市 场消化的⻛险： " 投资者⼀直在消化对美国劳动⼒市场和消费者、⼈⼯智能资本⽀出和再杠杆化以及美联储明年放松政策决⼼减 弱等⼀系列担忧 " （⾼盛研究团队于 11 ⽉ 24 ⽇写道）。 近期的强势表现是对之前⾛势的直接回落——尤其是在市场对劳动⼒市场、⼈⼯智能债务以及美联储政策⾛向的担忧有所缓 解之后。 2025/12/14 20:55 高盛 | ZeroHedge：2026年你需要把握的五大趋势 正如之前所述，如果您认同这⼀论点，那么那些投⼊巨资试图"赢得"这场竞赛的⼈，其投资回报率在⼀段时间内可能极不稳 定，这确实是⼀个现实的⻛险。另⼀⽅⾯，那些推动基础设施建设（包括计算硬件、数据中⼼、电⼒以及相关基础设施的建 设者）以及那些成功部署和利⽤⼈⼯智能并切实证明其⽣产⼒提升的企业，则可能仍然具有吸引⼒。 即使事后看来，我们仍会对这⼀时间线争论不休，但我认为， 我们现在正处于⼈⼯智能在市 ...

摘要 高盛闭门会-关于铜价格的关键辩论，各种需求预测差异核 心矛盾 20251211 2025 年矿山铜供给增幅小于废铜回收，2026 年矿山供给增长将主要来 自中国、蒙古等地的产能提升，但整体供给过剩逐步收窄，表明全球需 求增长加速。 2025 年美国铜库存显著增加，中国略有增加，其他地区下降。预计 2026 年美国库存继续增加，中国及其他地区小幅下降，全球供应缺口 或将显现。 市场预期美国可能在 2026 年中期对铜产品实施关税，税率可能逐步提 升，但具体实施时间和产品范围仍存在不确定性，可能对精铜或半成品 铜征收不同税率。 短期内，季节性因素导致中国农历新年前库存盈余，可能释放 COMEX 可交付的金属量。中国需求疲软是库存松动的主要原因。 预计数据中心总容量将显著增长，AI 数据中心用铜强度更高。2025 年 AI 数据中心铜需求占全球需求 1%，但贡献了 25%的需求增长。 Q&A 2026 年全球铜矿供给和需求的预测是什么？ 2024 年，预计铜市场将出现约 40 万吨的供给过剩，这一趋势将持续到 2025 年，供给过剩规模将达到 50 万吨。这主要由于废铜回收增加以及中国以外地 区需求疲软所致。 ...

高盛 RxChange 系列：慢性髓性白血病 KOL 观点 20251210 摘要 二代酪氨酸激酶抑制剂（TKI）逐渐成为 CML 一线治疗的主流选择，尤 其适用于年轻、期望达到治疗性无需缓解的患者，但需考虑患者年龄、 身体状况及合并症等因素。 新型配方 Danzicon 无需禁食，提高了患者用药的依从性，有助于改善 治疗效果。常用 TKI 类药物包括第一代和第二代，如撒丁，推荐剂量为 100 毫克，疗程 7 年，也有 50 毫克的数据支持。 西美替尼作为前线治疗的广泛应用仍存争议，需更多数据支持其耐药后 的耐受动力学情况。若未来数据能证明其在获得和维持 TFR（无治疗缓 解状态）方面的优势，或将推动其更广泛的应用。 新型前线疗法已获 CCN 和 FDA 批准，推广应用的主要阻力在于长期耐 受性和 TFR 率。若能证实长期维持无治疗缓解状态，将极大促进新型前 线疗法在临床上的应用。 InLive 001 和 Turn 701 等新药为 CML 治疗提供了新选择，对特定突 变如 T3,451I 表现出较好疗效，且每日一次服用无需禁食，提高了临床 实用性。但需谨慎评估长期安全性，并考虑与现有治疗方案的竞争关系。 ...

Investment Rating - The report holds a "Buy" rating for MP Materials and a "Sell" rating for Ramaco Resources [6]. Core Insights - The rare earth market, while small, is crucial for key industries, contributing approximately 3% to the US GDP, with China dominating the market by controlling 92% of refining and 98% of magnet manufacturing [1][2]. - The scarcity of heavy rare earth minerals, with 80% of reserves located in China and Myanmar, combined with complex extraction technologies, has led to a loss of technical advantage for Western countries [1][3]. - The demand for critical metals in clean technology is increasing, particularly for neodymium (Nd) and praseodymium (Pr) used in wind turbines and electric vehicle magnets [1][5]. - MP Materials has a strong operational foundation with high-quality assets and a solid customer base, including General Motors and Apple, supported by long-term contracts [1][6]. - The easing of US-China trade tensions is expected to benefit MP Materials, with fundamental factors likely to support stock price growth in the long term [1][6]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The global rare earth market sales were approximately $7 billion in 2024, significantly smaller than the copper market [2]. - The geopolitical landscape is pushing for supply chain localization, making access to metals critical [5]. Company Analysis - MP Materials is positioned advantageously due to global supply tightness, having secured a minimum price guarantee of $110 per kilogram, which is significantly higher than global market prices [3][7]. - The company plans to expand its production capacity, with expectations to double its existing separation facility capacity by the end of 2026 [7]. Competitive Landscape - MP Materials employs a vertical integration strategy, which provides a competitive edge over Ramaco Resources, which is still in the development phase and requires substantial capital expenditure [6][7]. - The report highlights the significant differences in asset quality and business models between MP Materials and Ramaco Resources [6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that MP Materials will begin selling finished magnets to General Motors by late 2026, with a focus on heavy rare earths due to strong demand in defense applications [7]. - There is no indication of a surplus similar to LNG in the rare earth market, with predictions of continued deficits through 2027 due to strong demand growth [13].

Q&A 从上一季度财报中总结出的关键观点是什么？投资者在 2026 年最关注什么？ 本季度财报季中的三个主要主题是人工智能的发展、消费者状况和公司运营情 况。首先，人工智能的发展成为投资者关注的焦点。那些与收入增长、云端业 务积压增长以及人工智能应用成果相关的公司，市场表现较好。例如， Alphabet 因其在过去 6 至 8 个月里推出的一系列举措而受到投资者青睐，而 Meta 由于广告收入增长不如预期且基础模型工作存在问题，其市场表现相对 较差。 其次，消费者状况也引起了广泛讨论。特别是在全球数字消费者领域， 我们观察到家庭收入上 1/3 的消费者表现相对稳定，而家庭收入下 1/3 到一半 的消费者群体则面临更大压力。这导致了消费行为模式的波动性增加。 第三， 公司运营情况成为 2026 年投资更多增长辩论的焦点。例如， 优步股价受 Waymo 进入新市场影响下跌，但收益角度看，未来 12 个 月内股权价值未变。相比之下，DoorDash 更被看好。对优步自动驾驶 技术成本投入及增量利润率的讨论是关注焦点。 谷歌推出旅游领域通用产品 Gemini 可能颠覆旅游行业，引发 Expedia 和 Booking ...

高盛：《通胀减免法案》谈判的药品定价对 TEVANBIX 竞争格局的影响 20251205 摘要 IRA 药品谈判需谨慎，制药公司面临大量诉讼风险，但过度强硬可能影 响政府谈判立场。特朗普时期谈判药品种类较拜登时期更多，定价空间 相对较大，但 2026 年后 Part D 药物定价将更复杂。 Tava's alcedo 协商价格仅比挂牌价低 38%，或因其价格已接近法定最 高限额，且低于政府净价。CMS 将在 2025 年 3 月发布定价依据，届时 可获得更多洞见。直接竞争对手的 IRA 药物可能影响定价策略。 所有 IRA 药品及其配方必须包含在所有 D 部分处方集中，CMS 暗示应 被视为二线优先选择。PBM 处理非竞争性领域药品方式变化不大，竞争 类别则取决于非 IRA 制造商的博弈策略，需权衡回扣与处方集吸引力。 TD 市场由 Teva、Astepto、Neurcrin 和 Grz 寡头垄断，Nircan 需权 衡成本与市场份额，争取处方公式上的平等地位。新患者市场难以完全 占据主导，PBM 需权衡利弊，制定窄范围排除策略。 Allergan 公司需区分独立 Part D 市场和 Medicare A ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for diversified companies and specific sectors such as aerospace, defense technology, and data centers, indicating strong growth potential for 2026 [1][3][7]. Core Insights - Diversified companies are optimistic about 2026, with Endvent expecting significant order fulfillment and Mirion anticipating a record order quarter of $175 million [1][4]. - The aerospace sector shows robust fundamentals, with demand for new aircraft models exceeding supply, and strong pricing power observed [5]. - Defense technology companies like AeroVironment and Andro are highlighted for their growth potential, with Andro projecting revenues of approximately $5 billion in 2026 [6]. - The data center and AI sectors are expected to see substantial capital expenditure growth, with predictions of 79% and 36% increases in 2025 and 2026, respectively [7]. Summary by Sections Diversified Companies - 18 diversified companies participated in the conference, with 13 expressing optimism for 2026, despite challenges in the chemicals sector [3]. - LyondellBasell Industries has seen a downgrade in performance expectations, with most basic industry companies anticipating a 1% to 5% decline in EBITDA [3][11]. Aerospace and Defense - The aerospace industry is experiencing strong demand, with a notable performance from Embraer in the business jet market [5]. - Defense technology firms are focusing on growth opportunities, with AeroVironment identifying 12 potential billion-dollar projects [6]. Data Centers and AI - The report indicates a strong outlook for data centers, with significant capital investments anticipated [7]. - Companies like Flex are investing in capacity to meet the growing demand driven by AI applications [8]. Industrial Technology - Belden's core industrial business is showing positive trends, with a recovery in discrete manufacturing and growth in Europe and China [9][10]. - The waste management sector is facing challenges but shows signs of optimism regarding pricing, particularly in landfill operations [18][19]. Transportation - The transportation sector is recovering, with signs of stabilization in truck transportation and improved pricing discipline [12]. Public Infrastructure - There is a positive sentiment regarding public construction spending, with expectations for continued growth in related projects [21].

高盛：从资产到阿尔法：David Kostin 谈美国股票 20251205 摘要 年初市场情绪乐观，虽 4 月解放日引发波动，但随后市场保持平稳上涨， VIX 指数稳定在 19 左右，预示 2026 年市场前景良好，投资者紧张情绪 显著减弱。 第三季度业绩强劲，公司收益同比增长近 9%，为市场带来稳定因素。 人工智能领域，公共市场如英伟达股价与收益匹配，市盈率合理，但私 人市场资本充足性和价格或不可持续，存在泡沫风险。 2025 年美股市场表现良好，对冲基金上涨约 12%，标普 500 指数上涨 约 17%。但共同基金跑赢基准比例较低，仅约 29%，因 4 月波动未能 及时增加仓位。 "聪明钱"关注医疗保健（相对便宜）、受益于税改的消费者领域以及能 从 AI 长期受益并推动收入增长的公司，这些领域被认为具有价值和潜在 回报。 共同基金略微低配指数中最大的股票以避免过度集中，对冲基金则积极 持有这些股票，因其表现出色且快速增长，并大力投入资本支出。 Q&A 你对 2026 年股票市场涨幅超过 20%的预测非常大胆，通常人们的预测在 8%到 12%之间。是什么让你如此自信？ 我们之所以如此自信，主要有三个原因。 ...

5 December 2025 | 6:20PM GMT Equity Research GS EQUITY RADAR China competition in focus and key research from the week China competition in focus. Our economists think that China will grow faster in an export driven way which will hurt European growth, especially Germany. We remain constructive on Germany's fiscal boost but given this structural drag from China, we are likely to see more focus on China competition for various sectors. Some reading / listening to help you frame the debate: Goldman Sachs does ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a buy rating for MP Materials and suggests investing in the global rare earth basket (GSXG RARE) which includes leading Chinese rare earth companies [1][11]. Core Insights - The rare earth market, although small, is crucial for key industries and supports approximately 3% of the US GDP, amounting to $1.5 trillion [2][3]. - Heavy rare earth resources are particularly scarce, with 80% located in China or Myanmar, and China currently dominates global refining and magnet manufacturing [1][3]. - The easing of US-China trade tensions has created opportunities for MP Materials, which has secured a minimum price for NdPr, with future growth dependent on operational execution and manufacturing expansion [1][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The global rare earth sales were approximately $7 billion in 2024, which is 1/33 of the copper market [2]. - The NdPr market is expected to face a continuous deficit until 2027, with a projected annual growth rate of about 7% driven by demand in electronics, AI, and low-carbon sectors [3][13]. Company Analysis - MP Materials focuses on NdPr, essential for smartphones, electric vehicles, and defense magnets, and has established infrastructure and quality customer relationships [1][7]. - Ramaco Resources is heavily reliant on the less liquid Scandinavian market and faces significant capital expenditure and approval risks for its Brook mine project [1][7]. Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy involves the global rare earth basket (GSXG RARE), which includes MP Materials, Energy Fuels, and Lynas, with a focus on companies showing sustainable profit growth [1][11]. - The current valuation of these companies is considered more reasonable compared to previous months, indicating a favorable buying opportunity [11].