Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for copper, predicting a price of $13,000 per ton in Q1 2026 and $12,500 per ton in Q2 2026, while aluminum prices are expected to remain high due to various market factors [1][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that AI capital expenditures are driving copper demand towards cyclical industries such as defense, artificial intelligence, electrification, and grid construction, accounting for over 40% of copper demand growth [1][3]. - It is anticipated that there will be a $1 trillion tax refund for U.S. consumers in the first half of 2026, which will significantly impact the market [1][2]. - The U.S. copper tariff policy under Section 232 is expected to be a key factor in the market in the first half of 2025, with a potential 15% tariff on refined copper to be reassessed in mid-2026 [1][3]. Summary by Sections Copper Market Dynamics - Copper prices and aluminum prices have risen over 20% since November 2025, driven by interest rate cuts, fiscal expansion, and AI capital expenditure [2]. - The global copper supply is expected to grow by only about 1% in 2026, with a tightening supply-demand balance as excess supply decreases from 600,000 tons to 300,000 tons [6][7]. - The report notes that while there are disruptions in major mines, overall copper supply remains stable due to new capacities in Africa and Central Asia [6][7]. Demand Trends - The report indicates a significant change in downstream demand due to rising metal prices, with traditional sectors like consumer electronics and hardware manufacturing experiencing a notable decline [5]. - Despite the overall demand slowdown, certain sectors such as the national grid and electric vehicle charging infrastructure may see increased investment, although the actual growth may be limited in the short term [8][9]. Future Projections - The long-term forecast for copper prices is set at $15,000 per ton by 2035, based on supply gap analysis and historical data trends [10]. - The aluminum market is expected to return to a surplus state by 2027, with prices projected to drop to $2,400 per ton [12]. - China's demand for aluminum is expected to grow at a rate of 3%-4% in 2026, which is lower than previous years but still indicates a positive trend [13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards the software sector, highlighting a significant net selling and shorting activity, suggesting a bearish sentiment in the market [7][14]. Core Insights - The software industry has seen a substantial decline in valuation, with forward P/E ratios dropping from 35x at the end of 2025 to 20x currently, indicating a more comparable valuation to other sectors [14]. - Despite the current bearish sentiment, the software sector continues to show strong sales growth relative to other industries, suggesting potential for recovery [11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming AI model updates and tools, which may maintain high volatility in sectors perceived to be at risk from AI disruption [10][14]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The report notes that many themes are experiencing high volatility, with the 10-day actual volatility for several indices at the 99th percentile since 2010, indicating a turbulent market environment [4]. - The software sector has been the most shorted and has seen a 55% increase in short positions year-to-date, reflecting investor caution [7]. Valuation Comparisons - Current P/E ratios for various sectors are provided, with the software sector at 26.9x for 2026, significantly lower than the previous year's 50.6x, indicating a major revaluation [9]. - The report highlights that while the software sector's earnings growth remains higher than other sectors, the recent sales growth and profit margins suggest a more reasonable valuation [7][11]. Sector-Specific Opportunities - The report identifies regional banks as a favorable investment due to benefits from a steepening yield curve and regulatory easing, suggesting a positive outlook for this sector [8][31]. - The UK real estate sector is highlighted as undervalued, with potential for recovery driven by improving earnings momentum and favorable macroeconomic conditions [33][34]. Global Themes - The report discusses the importance of domestic manufacturing and national security themes, particularly in the context of geopolitical shifts, which may drive investment in these areas [36][40]. - The upcoming Chinese New Year is noted as a potential catalyst for market movements, with historical data suggesting strong performance during this period [42].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed sentiment towards the technology sector, with a focus on dispersion among stocks, suggesting a cautious but potentially favorable investment environment for select companies [6][18]. Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing significant dispersion, with approximately 50 stocks in the Nasdaq 100 index rising over 60% while another 50 stocks have fallen by over 40% since October [6][8]. - Institutional trading has favored selling, particularly in the information technology sector, with hedge funds net selling U.S. stocks for the fourth consecutive week [8][9]. - The forward P/E ratio for the Nasdaq 100 has decreased from 28-29 times in late 2025 to about 24-25 times, indicating a return to more normalized valuation levels [9][11]. - The report highlights strong earnings growth expectations for the information technology and communication services sectors, projecting around double-digit growth in earnings per share (EPS) for the year [11]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Nasdaq 100 index has shown volatility, with the worst three-day performance since April 2025, yet ended the week nearly flat [5][6]. - Major tech stocks like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta have seen their prices decline, raising questions about market sentiment and future performance [9][22]. Earnings and Revenue Insights - The report notes that 85% of companies in the information technology sector reported positive surprises in earnings, indicating strong performance relative to expectations [12]. - The anticipated capital expenditures for major tech companies are projected to grow by 65% in 2026, reaching $618 billion, up from previous estimates of $537 billion [18]. Sector-Specific Observations - The software as a service (SaaS) sector is under scrutiny, with investors uncertain about the sustainability of recent rebounds in stock prices [15][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of capital expenditure trends, particularly for companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft, as they navigate through a period of uncertainty regarding profitability and growth [18][22]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable divide in investor sentiment regarding the potential of artificial intelligence and its impact on the tech sector, with some viewing it as a disruptive force while others remain cautious [14][24]. - The report identifies several stocks as controversial, including Uber and Take-Two Interactive, reflecting the ongoing debates about their future performance and market positioning [13][26].

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the software industry is currently in a bear market, with significant declines in market capitalization and net exposure [1][2]. Core Insights - The software sector has experienced a substantial sell-off, with the Broad Software Basket (GSTMTSFT) losing $2 trillion in value, approximately a 30% drop from its highs [1][5]. - Despite the decline in valuations, the software industry still trades at a 260% premium to the equal-weight S&P 500, consistent with historical averages [6][7]. - Consensus estimates predict a two-year forward revenue growth of 15% for software, which is more than double the 6% revenue growth expected for the median S&P stock [6][7]. Summary by Sections Software Market Performance - The software sector has faced fears of disruption from AI, leading to a significant drop in stock prices, with software stocks down 15% this week alone [5][9]. - The net exposure of software as a percentage of total US net market value has reached a record low of 4.2%, down from 7% at the beginning of 2026 and a historical peak of 17.7% [1][2]. Valuation and Growth Prospects - The price/sales ratio for software has decreased from 9x in September 2025 to 6x currently, indicating a sharp decline in valuations [6][7]. - There are signs of stabilization in leading indicators after four years of worsening trends, suggesting potential benefits from increased enterprise AI investment [14]. Industry Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report highlights a shift in AI project implementations from bespoke custom builds to packaged software offerings as the ecosystem matures [15]. - Evidence of pricing power is emerging as the push for adoption begins to convert into monetization, allowing companies to pass on incremental costs to customers [16]. - The report anticipates that it may take 2-3 quarters of stable fundamentals for investor sentiment to improve, with potential for a recovery in the software sector [9][14].

Milder industry growth in 2026E with focus on idiosyncratic opportunities; Buy Laopu China Jewelry 2026 outlook Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosu ...

⾼盛交易部⻔解读沃什将如何影响利率、美联储资 产负债表和市场 泰勒·德登 2026年2⽉3⽇，星期⼆，上午10:55 ⼀夜之间，⾼盛的研究和交易团队发表了他们对⼀个迅速成为市场最重要话题的观点：美联储主席 凯⽂·沃什将如何影响市场。 以下摘录部分要点： 对于时间紧迫的读者，我们摘录了⾼盛经济学家⼤卫·梅⾥克（David Mericle）的⼀份报告的主要 内容，该报告探讨了凯⽂·沃什（Kevin Warsh）担任美联储理事将如何影响市场，题为《 凯⽂ · 沃 什论利率政策、资产负债表政策和⾦融监管》 （仅限专业订阅⽤⼾阅读）。以下是重点内容 （我们 将在下⽂深⼊探讨该报告）。 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 接下来，我们将总结⾼盛交易员 对沃什⽴场的主要看法（ 详情⻅下⽂ ）。 ...

GS China Econ Proprietary Indicators: February Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behind our proprietary economic indicators can be downloaded here (methodology notes available in the appendix). Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, NBS, CEIC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/ ...

⾼盛顶级交易员对周五暴跌后市场的看法 BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY,FEB 02,2026-08:15 AM 这是极其忙碌的⼀周，⻛险偏好不断下滑，尤其是像贵⾦属和加密货币这样的"法定货币替代品"， 由于市场错误地认为凯⽂·沃什会采取鹰派⽴场，它们在市场上遭受了重创。 ⾼盛交易员迈克·华盛顿在评论上周的表现时写道，卖单流速最⾼的板块出现在管理式医疗和软件 ⾏业。但各类资产的动量破位也尤其加剧了市场的负⾯反应（我们已经就周五⽩银27%、⻩⾦9% 的历史性跌幅写了很多相关内容）。 ⾼盛的交易台数据显⽰，资产管理公司本周最终净买⼊约30亿美元，主要受科技和⼯业领域部分 个股推动，⽽对冲基⾦最终净卖出40亿美元，主要由宏观产品驱动。ETF交易量依然居⾼不下（盘 中占⽐超过40%，表明市场情绪偏空），且标普指数最优买卖盘⼝情况依然很差，当⽇平均仍约为 540万美元（相⽐之下，⼀年平均为1160万美元）。到⽬前为⽌，约44%的标普市值公司已发布财 报，股票反应总体符合预期，尽管不及预期的公司受到了严厉的惩罚。 机构经纪业务：美国多空 gross 杠杆率连续第4周上升，上升2.9个百分点⾄226.2%（创历 ...

2 February 2026 | 6:50AM KST Equity Research South Korea Tech: Memory Pricing Tracker: Jan. 2026: 1Q26 DRAM pricing forecast of +90-95% qoq higher than GSe; NAND broadly inline 1Q26 DRAM pricing forecasts across all major applications, as well as for the overall conventional DRAM pricing have been revised up again substantially, where the latter is now at +90-95% qoq (after +45-50% qoq in 4Q25). Note that this is above 1Q26 GSe of +77-82% qoq for Samsung Electronics (SEC) and SK Hynix (Hynix), which we beli ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of $600 for Microsoft, indicating a potential upside of over 30% based on a 28x P/E ratio [2][9] - For Venture Global (VG), the target price is set at $15, with the current stock price below $10, suggesting significant upside potential [2][14] Core Insights - Microsoft is focusing on its AI strategy, prioritizing Copilot and internal R&D over Azure revenue growth, which is expected to yield stronger long-term economic benefits [1][4] - VG's modular construction method for LNG facilities significantly enhances construction speed, with the CP2 project expected to show clear progress this summer [2][11] - The global LNG market is projected to see a substantial increase in supply over the next few years, making VG's low-cost operating model crucial for maintaining competitive advantage [2][13] Summary by Sections Microsoft - Microsoft's AI strategy encompasses infrastructure, platform, and application layers, leveraging self-developed chips and partnerships with companies like Anthropic to create diverse growth opportunities [1][5] - The Copilot tool is expected to have better unit economics than Azure, with a focus on enhancing user engagement and monetization potential [1][6] - The Fairwater project is anticipated to alleviate GPU supply constraints, allowing for better resource allocation between Copilot and Azure [1][8] Venture Global - VG operates LNG export facilities and is positioned within the energy ecosystem, with a focus on efficient construction methods to enhance project timelines [10][12] - The company has made significant progress in its modular LNG construction approach, with the CP2 project advancing faster than expected [11][12] - VG's financing strategy is clear, with substantial funding already secured for ongoing projects, and plans to raise additional capital to support future expansions [12][14]