J P M O R G A N Global Markets Strategy 03 September 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. Flows & Liquidity Where is the "Fed independence trade" mostly seen? Cross Asset Fund Flow Monitor Current level shows the latest percentile of weekly f ...

Group 1: Q2 Earnings Overview - The Q2 earnings season shows robust improvement, with 457 S&P 500 companies reporting an 11.6% year-over-year increase in total earnings and a 5.8% rise in revenues, with 80.5% beating EPS forecasts and 78.8% surpassing revenue expectations [1][2] - The proportion of companies beating EPS and revenue estimates is significantly above historical averages, with EPS beat percentage at 80.5% compared to a 20-quarter average of 77.6%, and revenue beat percentage at 78.8% versus 70.4% [2] Group 2: Sector Performance and ETFs - The consumer discretionary sector, which includes the Amplify Video Game Leaders ETF (GAMR), reported a 142% year-over-year increase in earnings on 3.3% higher revenues, with the gaming industry achieving a 61% earnings beat [4] - The technology sector, represented by the Alger AI Enablers & Adopters ETF (ALAI), saw 69.8% of companies reporting an 18.3% increase in earnings on 12.1% higher revenues, with 83.1% beating EPS estimates and 95.4% surpassing revenue estimates [5][6] - The aerospace sector, associated with the ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF (ARKX), experienced a 26.6% increase in earnings on 11.7% higher revenues, with 92.3% of companies exceeding EPS estimates [7] - The financial sector, linked to the Invesco Dorsey Wright Financial Momentum ETF (PFI), reported a 14% increase in earnings on 3.9% higher revenues, with 82.6% of companies beating EPS estimates [8] - The retail sector, represented by the ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN), saw earnings up 20.6% on 8.7% higher revenues, with 80% of companies beating both EPS and revenue estimates, largely driven by Amazon [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Trump Administration's tariff policies have led to significant uncertainty in the US economic outlook, raising fears of a potential recession [3][28] - Economists express differing views on the likelihood of a recession, with some predicting a 45% probability of recession within the next 12 months due to the impact of tariffs on growth [9][56] - The effective US tariff rate is expected to rise by approximately 16 percentage points this year, contributing to a forecasted real GDP growth of only 0.5% for 2025 [9][56] Summary by Sections Interviews with Economists - Paul Krugman emphasizes that the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, rather than the tariffs themselves, poses a significant risk for recession [29][40] - Jan Hatzius notes that while the hard data remains solid, soft data indicates a concerning outlook, with a potential 2 percentage point hit to growth from tariffs [56][60] - Oren Cass argues that the trade policies could lead to better long-term economic outcomes despite short-term costs [93][94] Market Vulnerability - The report assesses that markets are quite vulnerable to recession risks, particularly due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies [4][33] - Concerns about a financial crisis arising from tariff-induced economic conditions are acknowledged, but the current banking system is viewed as healthier compared to previous crises [32][66] Economic Forecasts - The report revises the US growth forecast down to 0.5% for 2025, with a 45% chance of recession within the next year due to the impact of tariffs [9][56] - The report highlights that the uncertainty from tariff policies is affecting business investment decisions, leading to a potential slowdown in economic activity [30][61] Recommendations for Investors - Investors are advised to consider traditional safe havens such as the Yen, Swiss Franc, and gold, as well as regional and style diversification to hedge against recession risks [34][68] - The report suggests that monetary policy adjustments, including potential rate cuts, could help stabilize the economy if recessionary conditions emerge [68][69]