本次会议为天峰证券研究所闭门会议仅限受邀嘉宾参会未经天峰证券研究所和演讲嘉宾书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何 全端性 深度性和坚定性 持续性上面来说的话都是全面的领先于市场的那么我们通信团队也是在全面传媒和计算机应用 我们计算机其实相当于可以说是季节 豆包产量的一个甲方就代表很多它的一个需求 应用端的一些这种情况 逻辑和标的上面我们也明确提出来先斩后止以及去尾纯真对吧那么所以对于字节和豆包本身链条上面来看的话我们第一点首先是跳出字节和豆包怎么样去看国内AI产业的 直到7月份特斯拉的二代机器人包括9月份的OpenAI的O1的模型包括近期我们看到的智捷会更多的聚焦于这种应用端所以从智捷这一次融购力大会我们已经感受到了无论从大模型还是说算力终端到应用 豆包的在中国的苹果手机终端合作也好对吧首先从这个事件角度来讲的话我们是看到了这种意见全球巨头的一个态度就不管你是跟谁去合作对吧我们不用去讨论但至少在专侧的话它在我们中国市场其实未来也一定是要融合这种AI的一个这个领域 展现之后我们觉得会对国内的AI产业会有一个挤钱的这种鲶鱼效应也就是说你其他的这个大厂BAT包括其他的互联网大厂你在AI赛道这里面的话是必须后续是积极的去 ...

我看一下到底能不能够把这个50均线给他站稳了这是不懂不太懂禅论的或者目前还不能用禅论去分析的如果大家懂禅论特别对于比如像级别这个问题搞得比较清楚的怎么样去做地规的都比较了解了那目前来看可能这段时间的行情都可以被定义为争线争书的震荡的阶段因为争线争书在整体的走势完成之前 参与的这样一个市场就得要稍微注意一点因为现在毕竟是震荡式如果一旦户籍层面上或者主要指数层面上他呈现出来了被持的机会的时候那么我们就可以比较放心的去布局各种各样的一些机会啊 第二个中线中枢下边沿以下的位置那个时候呢如果你可以稍微积极一点啊逆时进行布局啊也都可以啊因为那个时候呢有可能就会距离中线的这样一个最终底部的拐点的到来已经非常非常近了啊而且不同的板块其实节奏上还是有不同的大家也要依据自己跟踪的板块或者 比它是相对比较简单的一种就是禅论的理论知识点你可能后边线段会更麻烦由线段之后其实你分析整体的走势也要进行同级别的分解包括在往后边背吃等等它们可能的难度啊都要比比这个知识点更难一点分形我们之前给大家介绍过好几次了我相信经过我们的讲解或者大家到禅师的博客里去看他的原文 就是从最高点到最低点K线它有就包含这两段有五根K线它就肯定能形成B这个就是比较讨 ...

各位先生的投资朋友们大家上午好我是来自上京的策略分析师孟洋非常高兴今天再次有这样的机会跟我们的各位投资朋友们一起相约在互联网的平台上面和大家来分享对于当前市场的一些观点今天的直播的主题是跟美股的投资有关 所以呢我们今天呢其实一开始想跟大家来分享一下就是对于美股现在到底应该怎么样去做投资然后在对于明年的美联储的这个降息的节奏次数和幅度的这样的一个预期来讲的话我们应该要做什么样的一些调整这其实是今天在直播的过程当中的想跟大家持续分享的这样的一个话题如果说大家有什么问题的话呢特别是对于海外投资这一块有什么样的一些想法 美联储12月份降息落地但是整个美国的三大股市出现了这么大的一个下跌首先降息25个BPS它其实是符合市场预期的 第二就是虽然说12月份的议席会议已经降息但是在内部从投票的票位的分布来讲的话其实已经有人投了反对票说明内部的观点其实并不是如大家在议席会议之前所预期的那样的一致也就是说在内部美联储内部的票位的这样的一个观点其实已经有比较大的一些分歧 政策的一个取向还是处在一个降息的一个通道上面所以从鲍威尔的这个讲话来讲的话应该说他会既有一些偏鹰派的这样的一个观点另外一方面考虑到美国经济比较强劲的这样一个基本面 ...

感谢大家参加本次会议会议即将开始 本次会议内容不得涉及国家保密信息、内幕信息、未公开重大信息、商业秘密、个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经华创证券事先书面许可 腾讯内部的人就是这个东西它本身它确确实实是正在进行工作测试可能会在春节期间全面去上线然后我们对它的观点第一个就觉得首先它这个微信送礼它是一万以下除了珠宝教育培训这两个就是大部分不超过一万 昨天呢就是也是一个社交裂变啊然后所以那个在朋友圈里面在我之间大家确确实实玩的还比较嗨然后扩散啊也比较比较比较大那首先呢我们认为这是一个微信小店生态的进一步完善那6月份微信价格调整之后呢我们认为公司逐步调整了电商业务的思路从中阴影到更加重视生态平衡 有了认知 商家 然后促进了各种商家主动的开设微信小店这符合三宝龙一贯符合天津人信的这个特点腾讯自身也是向市场链上再进一步产业链公司有望享受增量当前的微信小店属于早期生态那接口呢还在多余科公众号视频号在后面因此就是说广告带头啊品牌运营的产业链现在都还没起来 电视股份也是电商代理公司线下做快闪 线上做线上代理然后它代理的品牌主要是益滋益滋里面有很多巧克力什么的大家看到 ...

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Key Points Industry or Company Involved * **Hyperscalers**: Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), Oracle (ORCL) * **Software Companies**: Salesforce (CRM), Adobe (ADBE), Intuit (INTU), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Google (GOOGL) * **AI Startups**: Adept, MosaicML, Together.AI, Cohere, xAI, Inflection, Anthropic, AI21 Labs, Stability AI, Mistral AI Core Views and Evidence * **AI is a significant growth driver for hyperscalers and software companies**: AI is expected to drive significant revenue growth for hyperscalers and software companies over the next few years. This is driven by increasing demand for AI applications across various industries and the ability of these companies to leverage their existing infrastructure and data to develop and deploy AI solutions. * **AI adoption is accelerating**: AI adoption is accelerating across various industries, with increasing interest in AI applications for productivity, customer service, and other use cases. This is supported by evidence of growing AI budgets and increasing adoption of AI tools and platforms. * **Cloud providers are key beneficiaries of AI growth**: Cloud providers are well-positioned to benefit from AI growth due to their existing infrastructure and data, as well as their ability to offer AI services and platforms to customers. * **AI infrastructure is a key barrier to AI adoption**: AI infrastructure, including computing power, data storage, and data management tools, is a key barrier to AI adoption for many organizations. This is particularly challenging for smaller companies with limited resources. * **AI is still in the early stages**: While AI is growing rapidly, it is still in the early stages of development and adoption. This means that there is significant potential for future growth and innovation. Other Important Points * **AI is driving increased cloud consumption**: AI is driving increased demand for cloud services, as organizations need cloud infrastructure to support AI workloads. This is benefiting cloud providers and infrastructure companies. * **AI is creating new monetization opportunities**: AI is creating new monetization opportunities for software companies, including through the development of new AI-powered products and services, as well as through the integration of AI into existing products and services. * **AI is transforming the software industry**: AI is transforming the software industry by enabling new types of applications and services, and by changing the way software is developed and delivered. * **AI is creating new challenges**: AI is also creating new challenges, including ethical and societal challenges, as well as technical challenges related to AI safety and security. 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Summary of Key Points from the Taiwan Tech Tour Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the technology sector in Taiwan, particularly on AI servers, LEO satellites, PCs, smartphones, and automotive electronics [7][9][19]. AI Servers - **Demand and Supply**: Demand for AI servers is stable, but supply chain issues are a concern. ODMs (Original Design Manufacturers) noted that NVIDIA's Hopper series GPU was launched in the second half of 2023, with mass production of the next generation of AI servers expected post-Chinese New Year [9][10]. - **Production Timeline**: ODMs aim to mass produce the next generation rack-level AI servers by 1Q25, with shipments starting in 2H25. Enhanced computing power is expected to increase the adoption of liquid cooling systems [9][10]. - **Key Players**: Companies like Hon Hai, Quanta, and Wistron are highlighted as strong performers in the AI server market, with expectations of triple-digit year-over-year revenue growth [30][31]. LEO Satellites - **Market Outlook**: The supply chain remains optimistic about LEO satellites, with major operators planning to increase satellite launches from over 2,000 to 5,000 annually. This segment is expected to grow significantly, supplementing cellular and WiFi communications [18][41]. - **Technological Advancements**: Improvements in technology, such as wider signal coverage and reduced latency, are driving the penetration of LEO satellites [41]. PC and Smartphone Market - **Growth Projections**: The overall growth in the PC market is expected to be flat to mid-single digits in 2025, with AI PCs anticipated to ramp up significantly due to the integration of generative AI software [19][22]. - **Smartphone Trends**: The smartphone market is also projected to grow, driven by innovations in form factors like foldable phones [19][22]. Automotive Electronics - **Competitive Landscape**: The automotive electronics sector faces intense competition from Chinese OEMs, leading to pricing pressures. However, government subsidies in China are providing short-term support for demand [18][19]. - **Strategic Focus**: Companies are diversifying their customer base and upgrading product mixes towards advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) to drive growth [18]. Tariff Impacts - **Production Strategy**: Companies are considering tariffs as a factor in their production strategies, with many diversifying production sites to Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia) to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and geopolitical tensions [10][17]. Company-Specific Insights - **Hon Hai**: Maintains growth guidance for 4Q24 and expects AI server production to ramp up in 1Q25. The company is expanding its global footprint across 205 factories in 24 countries [30]. - **Quanta**: Positive outlook for 2025 driven by new product cycles and strong AI server revenue growth [30]. - **Wistron**: Expects revenue growth in AI and general server businesses, with a focus on diversifying production to mitigate geopolitical risks [31]. - **Acer**: Anticipates growth in the PC market driven by the end of Windows 10 support and the rise of AI PCs [49]. Conclusion - The Taiwan Tech Tour highlighted a robust outlook for AI servers and LEO satellites, while the PC and automotive electronics markets face challenges. Companies are actively diversifying production to navigate tariff impacts and geopolitical tensions, positioning themselves for future growth in a competitive landscape [7][9][10][18][19].

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