Key Points 1. **Industry and Company**: The document focuses on the robotics industry, specifically highlighting Physical Intelligence, a startup building foundational AI models for robotics. 2. **Core Views and Evidence**: - **Embodied AI**: The development of the robot 'brain' is crucial for the rise of embodied AI. Future autonomous robots will require advanced Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models to transform human-like sensory inputs into robotic movement and manipulation. - **Physical Intelligence's Pi Zero**: Pi Zero is a general-purpose robotics model capable of controlling various robots and performing complex tasks. It outperforms existing models in terms of complexity and success rate. - **Funding and Investors**: Physical Intelligence raised $400m at a $2.0bn valuation in November 2024, with notable investors including Khosla Ventures, Lux Capital, OpenAI, Sequoia, Thrive Capital, and Jeff Bezos. - **Competitors**: The document mentions other companies working on general-purpose robotics models, such as Skild AI, Field AI, and OpenAI. 3. **Other Important Content**: - **DeepMind and Toyota Research Institute**: These companies are actively working on dexterous robots and behavior models based on diffusion policy. - **NVIDIA Project Gr00T**: This project aims to develop a general-purpose, multimodal foundation model for humanoid robots. - **Physical Intelligence's Timeline**: The company emerged from stealth in March 2024, revealed Pi Zero in October 2024, and raised $400m in November 2024. - **Technology Overview**: Pi Zero is a first-step prototype with a focus on long-horizon reasoning, autonomous self-improvement, robustness, and safety. - **Startup Timeline**: Physical Intelligence has made significant progress in a short period, showcasing its potential in the robotics industry.

Internet 2025 Outlook **Industry Overview** * The Internet sector is expected to continue its strong performance in 2025, driven by secular trends such as AI, digital transformation, and the shift to online platforms. * AI is expected to dominate the investment narrative, shifting from infrastructure to agents and applications. * Mega-caps and large-caps are expected to continue leading the sector, with significant investment in AI and infrastructure. **Key Themes** 1. **AI Shift**: The focus of AI investment is shifting from infrastructure to agents and applications, including chatbots, vertical tools, AI-driven search, and ad creation. 2. **Heavy Capex**: Mega-caps are expected to continue investing heavily in AI and infrastructure, which will curb margins and FCF but drive long-term growth. 3. **Cloud Growth**: Cloud growth is expected to accelerate, with more monetization of GenAI in 2025. 4. **Online Ads**: Online ad growth is expected to remain solid, with a focus on new products, direct response, AI, and margin expansion. 5. **E-commerce**: E-commerce growth is expected to accelerate, led by Amazon and Walmart. 6. **Streaming Media**: Streaming media growth is expected to be more balanced between subscriptions and monetization, with a focus on ad-supported video. 7. **Rides/Food**: Rides and food delivery are expected to remain resilient, driven by cohort strength and improving efficiency. 8. **AV Rollout**: Autonomous vehicle (AV) rollout is expected to expand as rideshare networks prove utilization and demand. 9. **Online Travel**: Online travel growth is expected to normalize, shifting focus to disciplined execution. 10. **Regulatory Focus**: Regulatory scrutiny around mega-caps and antitrust is expected to persist. 11. **Trump 2.0**: The incoming administration's pro-business stance is expected to be beneficial for the Internet group. **Company-Specific Analysis** * **Amazon (AMZN)**: Amazon is well-positioned as the market leader in e-commerce and public cloud. The company is expected to achieve multi-year margin expansion and FCF ramp, driven by high-growing AWS and Advertising revenue streams. * **Alphabet (GOOG/L)**: Alphabet's fundamentals are solid, and the company is expected to remain a driver of and primary beneficiary of an increasingly digital economy and advances in Generative AI. The company is focused on innovation, with healthy runway across Search and YouTube ads as AI drives higher ROI and TV dollars shift online. * **Meta Platforms (META)**: Meta is well-positioned to become an enduring blue-chip company built for the long term. The company's massive reach and engagement continue to drive network effects, and its targeting abilities provide significant value to advertisers. Meta is also focused on the two big tech waves of AI and Metaverse. * **Spotify (SPOT)**: Spotify is the largest pure-play audio streaming service and is driving and benefiting from the ongoing secular shift from transaction-based to access-based streaming models. The company is growing its total MAUs at ~11% and is generating positive FCF. * **Pinterest (PINS)**: Pinterest is a visual discovery platform and productivity tool where 535M+ people around the world go to discover ideas that they can then bring from inspiration to reality. The company has a scaled user base with high commercial intent and operates in a large addressable market. * **Reddit (RDDT)**: Reddit is a global digital city comprising 100k+ subreddits for users to share information, learn, and engage around specific topics and interests. DAUq growth has accelerated in recent quarters and there is meaningful headroom for growth. * **Uber Technologies (UBER)**: Uber is the global leader in two secular growth industries, ride-sharing and food delivery, and is leveraging its massive scale and technological expertise to rapidly launch and scale new products. * **Booking Holdings (BKNG)**: Booking Holdings is the best-positioned company in the online travel space. The company is expected to deliver solid revenue growth and continue returning capital to shareholders. * **Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE)**: Expedia is expanding its international footprint through its portfolio of strong brands with significant scale, including Brand Expedia, Hotels.com, and Vrbo. * **Airbnb (ABNB)**: Airbnb is a leading global marketplace for Alternative Accommodations (AA) and experiences, with its community of individual hosts and strong brand the key differentiators. * **WEBTOON (WBTN)**: WEBTOON is a leading global storytelling platform that pioneered a new form of digital content. Stories on WBTN are serialized into short, vertically scrolling web-comics or web-novels released on a weekly schedule. **Conclusion** The Internet sector is expected to remain a strong performer in 2025, driven by secular trends and significant investment in AI and infrastructure. Mega-caps and large-caps are expected to continue leading the sector, with significant opportunities for growth and innovation.

Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses **光讯科技 (Guangxun Technology)** and the **data center optical module market** in China, focusing on the past performance and future outlook of the industry [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Trends - The data center optical module market in China has experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable decline after 2020, reflecting a broader trend in capital expenditure (CAPEX) among domestic cloud service providers [2][3][4]. - The growth trajectory of domestic internet companies has diverged from that of overseas counterparts since 2020, largely due to regulatory changes and market dynamics [3][4][5]. - CAPEX for domestic cloud service providers has decreased from approximately **9.7%** of revenue in 2019 to **4.15%** in 2023, indicating a significant contraction in investment [5][6]. Competitive Landscape - 光讯科技 has shown resilience in the market, with a strong performance attributed to its competitive advantages in revenue, pricing, and profit margins [1][2][3]. - The company is expected to increase its market share in 2024, with projections suggesting a potential share of **30% to 50%** among major clients, up from **20% to 30%** previously [16][17]. - The competitive environment has improved, with a reduction in competition due to supply constraints in chip availability, allowing 光讯科技 to enhance its pricing power [14][15][19]. Financial Performance - The financial metrics indicate a recovery, with significant improvements in net and gross margins expected in the upcoming quarters, driven by better yield rates and cost management [16][17]. - 光讯科技's investment in self-sourcing chips is anticipated to enhance its profitability and market position, particularly in the high-speed optical module segment [18][19]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see a shift towards **400G** optical modules, with 光讯科技 positioned to capitalize on this transition due to its established capabilities and product offerings [13][14][20]. - The introduction of **800G** products is anticipated to further differentiate competitive advantages among leading companies in the optical module market [19][20]. Additional Important Insights - The call highlights the importance of technological advancements and product iterations in maintaining competitive edge, particularly in the context of AI-driven market dynamics [12][13][14]. - The discussion also touches on the implications of regulatory changes and market consolidation, which have shaped the operational strategies of domestic internet companies [3][4][5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the performance and strategic positioning of 光讯科技 within the evolving data center optical module market in China.

本次电话会议仅服务于华创证券研究所客户不构成投资建议相关人员应自主做出投资决策并自行承担投资风险华创证券不应使用本次内容所导致的任何损失承担任何责任 专家发言内容仅代表专家个人观点不代表本公司观点本次会议内容不得涉及国家保密信息内幕信息未公开重大信息商业秘密个人隐私不得涉及可能引发不当炒作或股价异常波动的敏感信息不得涉及影响社会或资本市场稳定的言论未经华创证券事先书面许可 任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利市场有风险投资需谨慎各位投资者大家早上好欢迎大家参加由我们华超集团组织的 我们可以说整个产业的发展还是非常激动人心的 这周天的话也是继续围绕着AI家AI应用产业链的这么一个更新的我们希望专家们能给我们所产业链他们一些这样的一个分享我们今天也非常有幸邀请到在国内从业包括在大厂里面有相关AI经验的这样的一个专家们来给我们做一个分享 更新更新更新更新更新更新更新更新更新更新更新 主持的是我们团队的杨九一。那下面的话呢,我们进入到这样的一个分享环节。好,庄总有请。专家您好,主播间听不到您的声音哦,麻烦您。 ...

会议紧面向开源证券的专业投资机构客户或受邀客户仅供在新媒体背景下研究观点的及时交流第三方专家发言内容仅代表其个人观点所有信息或所表述的意见并不构成对任何人的投资建议未经开源证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人严禁录音、转发及相关解读涉嫌违反上述情形的我们将保留一切法律权利感谢您的理解和支持 那我们今天呢给各位投资者汇报的主题主要是包括三个方面第一个方面呢就是给大家复盘一下2019年到2020年的一个国内的云集散的一个浪潮同时呢解读一下这个巨头的资本开支的一个情况那第二个方面的话呢是给大家把详细拆解一下国产算力和字节跳动产业链的一个弹性那第三个方面呢就是给各位投资者汇报一下AIDC细分产业链的一个涨价的这么一个情况 相关的这样的一个订单那么确实字节跳动在AI的投入力度是非常大的当然就是国内的阿里腾讯也在积极布局但是从投资力度来讲字节跳动无疑是排在第一位的站在当下这个时点我们建议投资者一定要重视国产算力的这么一个大的产业投资机会这个产业行情实际上是由字节跳动发起的 那百度呢目前确实有一点点落后了我们觉得百度呢是需要努力才能去追赶上字节阿里这些巨头的一个步伐了那我们判断了就是那国产算力产业可能了这个这一波的投资机会是由这 ...

听我这个交流对上周的话我们也是把我们2025年的一个年度策略给它发出来了然后我们那个策略其实跟我在11月初就是关注我们团队的或者关注我报告的投资者或者领导都知道其实我们从11月3号 包括这种AI加陪伴的就是后面其实草苍木茅等等就我们在11月份的时候当时那第二篇报告就是梳理全球主流模型跟应用的一个流量跟细分赛道的一个机会然后到10月底的时候我们写了AI应用框架的第三篇报告就是系统的探讨了AI应用的变现的四条路径这一块的话其实也是一个比较有意思的一个事情 比如说单纯的政府端的一个投资修复或者说像一些其他的垂直行业信息化的一些赛道我自己而言的话我觉得可能相比较AI应用他们的一个无论从赔率远期的赔率还是从短期的一个催化还是从产业知识的角度来看的话可能是远远不如AI应用的我们就集中主要的精力把研究的时间跟投资的时间可能都放在这个系统的赛道上面所以 北方划出两千亿中芯国际三千亿如果下游的先进制程或者新增的一些晶圆的需求不出现或者说它的市值从三千亿涨到现在七千亿八千亿甚至在十月中当时最高接近一万亿的情况之下的话那么它的晶圆厂的上游厂商设备厂商那些也很难讲一个市值往上走这样的一个逻辑其实跟现在是一样的就是说 然后基本上已经走 ...

本次会议为天峰证券研究所闭门会议仅限受邀嘉宾参会未经天峰证券研究所和演讲嘉宾书面许可任何机构和个人不得以任何 全端性 深度性和坚定性 持续性上面来说的话都是全面的领先于市场的那么我们通信团队也是在全面传媒和计算机应用 我们计算机其实相当于可以说是季节 豆包产量的一个甲方就代表很多它的一个需求 应用端的一些这种情况 逻辑和标的上面我们也明确提出来先斩后止以及去尾纯真对吧那么所以对于字节和豆包本身链条上面来看的话我们第一点首先是跳出字节和豆包怎么样去看国内AI产业的 直到7月份特斯拉的二代机器人包括9月份的OpenAI的O1的模型包括近期我们看到的智捷会更多的聚焦于这种应用端所以从智捷这一次融购力大会我们已经感受到了无论从大模型还是说算力终端到应用 豆包的在中国的苹果手机终端合作也好对吧首先从这个事件角度来讲的话我们是看到了这种意见全球巨头的一个态度就不管你是跟谁去合作对吧我们不用去讨论但至少在专侧的话它在我们中国市场其实未来也一定是要融合这种AI的一个这个领域 展现之后我们觉得会对国内的AI产业会有一个挤钱的这种鲶鱼效应也就是说你其他的这个大厂BAT包括其他的互联网大厂你在AI赛道这里面的话是必须后续是积极的去 ...

我看一下到底能不能够把这个50均线给他站稳了这是不懂不太懂禅论的或者目前还不能用禅论去分析的如果大家懂禅论特别对于比如像级别这个问题搞得比较清楚的怎么样去做地规的都比较了解了那目前来看可能这段时间的行情都可以被定义为争线争书的震荡的阶段因为争线争书在整体的走势完成之前 参与的这样一个市场就得要稍微注意一点因为现在毕竟是震荡式如果一旦户籍层面上或者主要指数层面上他呈现出来了被持的机会的时候那么我们就可以比较放心的去布局各种各样的一些机会啊 第二个中线中枢下边沿以下的位置那个时候呢如果你可以稍微积极一点啊逆时进行布局啊也都可以啊因为那个时候呢有可能就会距离中线的这样一个最终底部的拐点的到来已经非常非常近了啊而且不同的板块其实节奏上还是有不同的大家也要依据自己跟踪的板块或者 比它是相对比较简单的一种就是禅论的理论知识点你可能后边线段会更麻烦由线段之后其实你分析整体的走势也要进行同级别的分解包括在往后边背吃等等它们可能的难度啊都要比比这个知识点更难一点分形我们之前给大家介绍过好几次了我相信经过我们的讲解或者大家到禅师的博客里去看他的原文 就是从最高点到最低点K线它有就包含这两段有五根K线它就肯定能形成B这个就是比较讨 ...

各位先生的投资朋友们大家上午好我是来自上京的策略分析师孟洋非常高兴今天再次有这样的机会跟我们的各位投资朋友们一起相约在互联网的平台上面和大家来分享对于当前市场的一些观点今天的直播的主题是跟美股的投资有关 所以呢我们今天呢其实一开始想跟大家来分享一下就是对于美股现在到底应该怎么样去做投资然后在对于明年的美联储的这个降息的节奏次数和幅度的这样的一个预期来讲的话我们应该要做什么样的一些调整这其实是今天在直播的过程当中的想跟大家持续分享的这样的一个话题如果说大家有什么问题的话呢特别是对于海外投资这一块有什么样的一些想法 美联储12月份降息落地但是整个美国的三大股市出现了这么大的一个下跌首先降息25个BPS它其实是符合市场预期的 第二就是虽然说12月份的议席会议已经降息但是在内部从投票的票位的分布来讲的话其实已经有人投了反对票说明内部的观点其实并不是如大家在议席会议之前所预期的那样的一致也就是说在内部美联储内部的票位的这样的一个观点其实已经有比较大的一些分歧 政策的一个取向还是处在一个降息的一个通道上面所以从鲍威尔的这个讲话来讲的话应该说他会既有一些偏鹰派的这样的一个观点另外一方面考虑到美国经济比较强劲的这样一个基本面 ...