ab 14 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Region Group Growth pushed out again Limited growth into FY25 disappointing but more positives emerging RGN's FY24 FFOps of 15.4c was -2% below guidance and FY25 guidance of 15.5c - 5% below UBSe (-3% vs. cons.) with ongoing property expense inflation a headwind in both FY24/25. In addition to setting out a target for comp NOI growth of +3%, guidance also allowed for several 'one-off' items including lost rent from centre repositioning, line fee drag on und ...

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 UBS Stock Update Recent changes to UBS ratings, price targets & EPS Equities Australia Luke Brown, CFA Analyst luke.brown@ubs.com +61-2-9324 3620 Recent changes to UBS ratings, price targets and EPS The UBS Stock Update lists all recent rating, price target and earnings per share changes made by our research analysts. Rating & Price Target Changes 81sck Chelonox Creatings Freightways Janos Hardo Region Group Tercla & Webster RICSummaryRatingCurrency CGEAXAUDPT ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab James Hardie Industries Slow recovery but foundation solid Soft 2QFY25 makes bridge to FY25 incrementally harder We see the key takeaways from today's result as: 1) FY25 unchanged but harder with tough 2Q. JHX's 2QFY25 guidance came in softer than expected (midpoint vols -7% albeit with some large builder inventory adj impact). While declining rates will clearly improve the outlook, we see any improvement as unlikely to arrive in time for FY25 earnings and ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a GDP growth forecast of 4.9% for 2024, indicating a slower growth outlook due to various economic factors [15]. Core Insights - The property sector is experiencing a significant downturn, with sales, starts, and real estate investment (REI) projected to decline by 5-10%, 15-20%, and 5-10% respectively in 2024 [16]. - Consumption recovery remains weak, with offline activities normalizing but overall consumption still below pre-COVID trends, influenced by factors such as income, confidence, and excess savings [17][35]. - Infrastructure fixed asset investment (FAI) is expected to moderate to 5-6% in 2024 from 8% in 2023, reflecting a shift in government support dynamics [18]. - Exports are projected to remain resilient, with nominal exports expected to increase by 3.5% in 2024, supported by robust US growth and ongoing global tech cycles [19]. Economic Indicators Summary - Real GDP growth is forecasted at 4.9% for 2024, with a notable Q1 growth of 5.3% followed by a slowdown to 4.7% in Q2 [15]. - Consumption growth is expected to be 5.1% in 2024, down from 6.4% in 2023, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer confidence and spending [3]. - Fixed investment growth is projected to stabilize at 3.7% for 2024, consistent with the previous year [3]. - The current account balance is expected to decrease to 1.2% of GDP in 2024, down from 1.4% in 2023 [3]. Sector-Specific Insights - The property sector's downturn is described as the sharpest in history, significantly impacting GDP and local government financing [16][25]. - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to slow down, with a focus on maintaining fiscal support amid weaker local government financing conditions [18]. - Retail sales growth is projected to remain subdued, with key factors such as youth unemployment and cautious consumer sentiment affecting overall spending [35][38]. Policy and Market Dynamics - Major coordinated policy easing measures were implemented in May 2024 to address the property downturn, although the effectiveness of these measures remains to be seen [22]. - The report highlights the importance of addressing inventory destocking in the property sector, with limited progress noted so far [16][25]. - The report emphasizes the need for further policy support to stimulate consumption and investment, particularly in the context of high savings rates and cautious consumer behavior [41].

Global Research and Evidence Lab 13 August 2024 Australian Economic Comment RBA Hauser hawkish: lifts neutral & NAIRU. WPI ticks down to 0.8% q/q, but y/y holds 4.1% RBA Deputy Hauser hawkish: effectively lifts neutral rate & NAIRU estimates RBA Deputy Governor Hauser's speech was on the hawkish side; especially relative to prior comments, which were initially more balanced on the RBA's 'dual mandate' of an inflation target as well as full employment. 1) Hauser characterised inflation as persistent, and hig ...

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ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Nihon Kohden Await rebound in market credibility Lowering price target and estimates We are lowering our price target for Nihon Kohden from ¥3,000 to ¥2,180 to reflect cuts to our estimates and base PER. We are revising our estimates based on changes to our forex assumptions (from ¥150/$ to ¥145 and ¥160/€ to ¥155) and cuts to our sales estimates for Japan and China. Our new target PER of 20.2X is a 10% discount to our previous multiple (the 22.5X average f ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Freightways Still in neutral Retain Neutral following recent re-rating with... FRW's short-term misvaluation has materially reduced following its re-rating of 20% over the last six weeks with expectations of earlier monetary easing lifting investor appetite in NZ cyclical stocks. Looking forward, FRW investment case is now reliant on a return to attractive (double-digit) earnings growth. While we expect EPS to lift in FY25e it is likely to be mostly contain ...

ab 13 August 2024 Global Research and Evidence Lab Equities Spot On SA Miners—momentum & yield if spot prevails South Africa Mining 8% downside risk to 12M forward consensus earnings, on average If spot commodity prices prevail, we calculate upside risk to 12M forward consensus earnings for the gold miners (+32%) and the SA diversifieds (+1%) on an average market cap-weighted basis, while we calculate downside risk to for the PGM miners (- 15%) and dual-listeds (-21%) on an average market cap-weighted basis ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China CSSC Holdings is "Buy" with a price target of RMB 50.00 as of 12 August 2024 [10]. Core Insights - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding reported H124 results with a revenue growth of 15% year-over-year (YoY) and a gross profit margin (GPM) improvement of 8 percentage points YoY [1]. - The company achieved a strong order win of USD 8.5 billion in H124, which is 188% of its full-year goal for 2024, resulting in a total order book of USD 20 billion, equating to a duration of 4.6 years [1][2]. - The CEO indicated that while the upcycle for container shipbuilding may have peaked, there is an expectation for increased orders for energy shipping vessels, such as product tankers and LNG carriers [2]. - The shipbuilding margin is expected to remain stable, with Yangzijiang being the shipyard with the highest margins in the market, assuming no significant increases in steel prices or RMB appreciation [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding's H124 revenue grew by 15% YoY and 2% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) [1]. - The GPM improved by 8 percentage points YoY and 1 percentage point QoQ [1]. Order Book and Market Outlook - The total order book stands at USD 20 billion, with a duration of 4.6 years, indicating strong demand and longer delivery times accepted by shipowners [1]. - The CEO mentioned that the company would maintain flexibility for high-margin orders despite not revising the new order guidance [2]. Margin Stability - Yangzijiang Shipbuilding is expected to maintain elevated GPM levels, supported by a strong order backlog and competitive bidding for shipbuilding slots [3].